BLACK MONDAY NIGHT

*Minnesota New England OVER 39.5-------rushing against these defenses wont work. Teams playing the Vikings are averaging 36 passing attempts and teams playing New England are averaging about 31 passing attempts. So an average expectation is 67 passing attempts in this game(Brad Johnson is averaging 32 passing attempts per game himself). Over the last 4 weeks, I've tracked the number of passing attempts in each game and in games where there are more than 60 passing attempts, the total has gone OVER 24 times against only 11 unders. (In all games the OVER is 32-19 so, basically, a lot of games going over lately). It doesnt matter how 'hot' Chester Taylor is, if the rush defense is good, you have to pass.

*Minnesota (+100) over New England------ok, this weekend Indiana, Oregon State, NC, Green Bay and the Tennessee Titans have come through for me at home while the damned Eagles, Broncos and Purdue have fucked me up. That's 5 home successes and only 3 failures. Not too bad if you look at it like that. The Broncos schedule had been weak and I regret not considering that in my pick on them. But now we know that the BRONCOS DEFENSE SUCKS! Their offense did more than enough to win the game and their defense had every reason to perform well---it failed. However, this shitty Denver team did beat New England, AT NEW ENGLAND. So Denver, we now know, is overrated and if you look at NE's other games, you see they got to play Buffalo 2 times and Miami and the Jets. Their only impressive win was at Cincinatti. The Vikings have played the Bears 16-19....washington, seattle, carolina. I still believe in home teams and theres no reason to doubt the Vikings this year(Brady is 9-0 in domed stadiums!). So what, the Patriots lost to the PATHETIC BRONCOS AT HOME!

Update: Let me just say before this game starts that I am seeing reasoning which I consider BLATANTLY STUPID. And i want to say right now that this Patriots-betting reasoning is STUPID:

"The Patriots will play in a dome for the first and only time this season when they travel to the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome. New England quarterback Tom Brady is a perfect 9-0 in his career in domes and the Patriots have scored 31 or more points in each of their last four indoor games. Expect Patriots running back Laurence Maroney to have a big game tonight, returning to a familiar turf, after being selected with the 21st pick in last year's draft out of Minnesota. New England is also a perfect 5-0 in their last five games as a road favorite"

Maroney will not have a big game against Minnesota's rushing defense as a rusher. He may catch a few passes. Actually, reading the pathetically weak case for New England, I want to be MORE on Minnesota.

Ugh! More idiocy from the cbs.sportsline glog:

"What would a Monday Night game be without a prediction, and here is mine. The Patriots are a battle tested team, they win in the snow, sleet, rain, mud, and even on their own field, as bad as it looks. The Vikings are a good team with an even better defense, but the Pats, somehow, always figure a way to win in the long run. I see New England leaving the Twin Cities with another victory by the score of 24-21."

Minnesota +7.5 teased with Minnesota OVER 33.5------my teasers have been fucking me up but this is a strong play...it MUST be played.

DOW will go down.....soon

BLACK MONDAY

Dow -150 today. Sell all sucker rallies and Goddamn the losing shitbag Eagles to hell.

Sunday


TENNESSEE -3 over Houston-------Tenn coming home off a bye after 2 huge covers beating Washington and holding the Colts to 14 points. Evidence that Tenn is doing something right recently. im betting Houston will come up a bit soft after a 28 point cover vs Jacksonville(overrated).

PHILDELPHIA -.5 teased with GREEN BAY +3(-130) -------Eagles are coming off 2 road losses, coming home and Im 100% certain their motivation will be high. Jax has some injuries and Leftwich wont play(and if he does, he'll play with an injury). Is Jax really that good? They have no road wins and their only impressive win is the 9-0 vs Pittsburgh. Green Bay has still not delivered a win for their home crowd and Arizona is markedly weaker than any team the Packers have faced at home this year. Packers pass defense has been poor so Leinart will pass a lot. But im betting that the Pack's D will step up enough to get the win with home field pep.

DENVER -3 over Indianapolis-----Colts on the road this year: 31-28 over Jets and 26-21 over Giants. Is that really impressive? Is it impressive that Tennessee beat the Colts at Indy until very late in the game? They'll be plenty of people trying to twist their thinking around to find some desperate way to justify betting on the Colts so they can have Peyton on their side. And they'll be sorry after Denver wins convincingly. If you look at the injury report, Indy can something like 20 injured players. They might play, as they are "questionable", but there's a lot of them. Indy's rush defense is weak and that's what the Broncos do well: rush.

Denver vs Indy UNDER 40------the best defense in football playing at home knowing that if they win, they'll be considered the best team(probably). I think the under is a good risk here knowing 1)Denver is the best defense and 2)Denver will try to run whenever they can because a)indy's rush defense is 31st in the league and b)they want to shorten the game and keep Manning on the bence as long as possible. and 3) INDY PUT UP 14 VS TENNESSEE!!!!!

PHILADELHPIA -2 teased with Houston/Tenn UNDER 47------Vince Young is only attempting 20-something passes per game and we see Houston scoring only 6 at Dallas and Tennessee's defense WHICH HELD INDY TO 14 POINTS coming home after a bye being prepared. I think Philly is a strong play so i'll put this under with them

Saturday

*Indiana +7.5(-125) over Michigan State and Indiana (+240) straight up------MSU has lost to Illinois, should have lost to Northwestern AND INDIANA HAS BEATEN IOWA! Indiana is coming off a 3-44 loss to Ohio State and should be motivated to step up at home with a real chance to win. Will MSU have a let down after the greatest comeback in history? I wouldnt even call it a let down, MSU is just not that good. I played them in a teaser laying 20.5 at home vs Illinois thinking they'd come back strong after they had blown it vs Notre Dame, and they lost outright. Michigan State sucks.

Indiana +13 teased with Purdue +9 teased with Oregon State +16.5 (+180)------every team I'm going against here, Michigan State, Penn State and USC, is 2-4 ATS or worse, has proven itself to be overrated this year and is on the road. MSU's defense is pathetic and just hasnt stopped anyone. Penn State's "good" defense only seems to work at home as they've allowed Minnesota to score 27 at Minnesota, Ohio State to score 28(that's actually not so bad) at Ohio State and Notre Dame to score 41 at Notre Dame. USC has failed to cover their last 4 and failed to cover their last 3 by 10 points or more each game. USC IS coming off a bye, and Im trying to avoid that situation, but OSU just doesnt look that much worse than USC; if you look at it, their defense is allowing as many yards as USC and they beat Washington AT washington covering the line by 18.5 points. USC blew out Arkansas early in the season but they arent blowing out any of their conference opponents and seem to be struggling just to win.

Purdue (+130) over Penn State------Purdue's defense is improving and I dont like Penn State's offense. Notre Dame scored 41 off PSU and only 35 off Purdue. Im betting Purdue has the motivation to win after losing 3-24 last week to Wisconsin.

Oregon State +10.5 over USC-----USC coming off bye but 10.5 is a lot of points to give a home team and USC is just not blowing teams out.

I may have more games tomorrow.

Update:
Missouri -1.5 over Oklahoma------these teams are statistically equal with Ok having played Texas, Washington and Oregon(a slightly tougher schedule than Missouri). However, Oklahoma HAS ONLY PLAYED 1 ROAD GAME this year and they've compiled most of their stats with their star RB who is, of course, out with a broken collar bone. Take the home team

Kansas -1.5 over Colorado------Colorado's offense is very weak. Kansas coming off 1 point road loss at Baylor and should have sufficient motivation to step up on defense to take the win here.

Michigan UNDER 49.5 teased with North Carolina +14.5-------NC is at home coming off a bye. They suck but have played a fair number of good teams. betting they play Wake close enough to cover 2 td's. The weather in Ann Arbor is currently nasty, cold, rainy and not the type of day that anyone really wants to play football on. I cant believe they'll be too much passing or scoring today

Wednesday

ughhh! Tigers cant hit either. I have a strange belief that Tigers are destined to win the series and thus, they are just on the verge of breaking out offensively. However, there's no real evidence of that. The evidence is that I-Rod sux, Inge is weak......etc. Suppan deserves to be bet on and both offenses deserve to be bet against. The correct play for BONDERMAN/SUPPAN is probably the under, but this was the correct play for the last game and the one before that....and probably the next 2. i dont wanna play it tho, i dont know why.
Notice the unnatural volatility in the Dow? I think the last sucker got in at 12140. I'd say about a 40% chance DOW crashes at least 100 points tomorrow.

Tuesday

Detroit +132 over Stl------Stl offense weak and Carpenter looking hittable in postseason. Carpenter does not walk people and the Tigers dont take walks. Tigers did face Carpenter once this season and the result was 7 earned runs in 7 innings on 9 hits. So they CAN hit him. Carpenter gave up 13 hits and 7 earned runs in 11 innings against the Mets, and the Mets were actually STRUGGLING offensively through that entire series.

BCLI RESULTS

24-14-2 (63%) on all single football bets
7-5 +3.48units on post season baseball
5-5 -1.7units on teasers
2-3 + .1unit on football moneylines
5-1-1 (83%) on starred football plays
10-3 (77%) on football over/under bets

Ok, with BCLI's record coming down to a more human level of 63%, I expect haters to be more tolerant of me(because on saturday I was a big loser, and became more akin to them). However, if you look at BCLI's football totals record and starred plays, you may still catch an image of the divine. BCLI's blog is, of course, a documented learning experience and it is important to analyze the disaster on Saturday to make sure that can be avoided in the future. After spending like 10 hours looking at games of Friday, I had come up with the Purdue UNDER, a brilliant pick which hit with 29 points to spare, the Washington State UNDER, a good pick that lost when pandemonium broke loose in the 4th quarter and 28 points were scored, Mississipi +21.5, a decent pick which lost on a lucky 100 yard kickoff return to start the game, another long run where the guy actually stepped out of bounds but video evidence was not 'indisputable', and the fact that Miss went for it on 4th(at least once, maybe twice) down when they were deep in Arkansas territory and SC-Vandy UNDER, a pick that probably shouldnt have been made considering SC was coming off the bye and that sometimes makes teams come out STRONG as SC did both offensively and defensively and the fact that Vandy was on a 'let-down' after a big win. Stop!
1. Off-the-bye teams TRUMP home field advantage as we saw with South Carolina AND the Minnesota Vikings both winning on the road.
Anyway, I decided that Saturday would be the day I finally paid Dave Cokin some money to see how good he was(I have seen Cokin in Vegas doing his radio show in the Stardust and always suspected he was pretty good). So for $25, Cokin would give me The Game of the Month and 2 underdogs that were GUARANTEED to win straight up. The first dog, UTEP over Houston AT Houston, I didnt even understand it as I had almost decided to bet Houston -6.5 because they were coming home after a loss: fundamental BCLI reasoning. Cokin tried to justify the pick with something like 'where has Houston's rushing offense gone?' Who cares? they're AT HOME! The second dog guaranteed to win was SMU, I decided to endorse this pick and make it a BCLI pick due to East Carolina's injuries and Willis' prowess at QB. But, of course, I was overlooking the simple fact that EAST CAROLINA WAS AT HOME. Ok, so both those purchased picks failed to cover by more than 2 td's. The game of the month was Georgia -17.5 and I bought into Cokin's reasoning that Georgia would bounce back at home(should have realized that Georgia HAD LOST AT HOME the previous game and this indicated that Georgia FUCKING SUCKS) and unload against a weak team. However, there were a couple problems: 1)Georgia had done virtually nothing this season to prove that they were NOT overrated and 2) 17.5 points.
Anyway, I believed in Cokin and I believed in a pick because he had called it 'GAME OF THE MONTH'. So far, I have spent $62 on picks from Glenn Mcgrew, Scott Spreitzer and Dave Cokin. Those picks have gone 2-7-1. 2-7-1! That is an atrocity. I mean, if you are an experienced handicapper and you perhaps talk to other smart handicappers, I can see how you could win at a good pace every year and make money selling winning picks. But it appears that these idiots have succumbed to the temptation to sell too many games.

2)another mistake i made was putting Mississippi in 3 different teasers. That's too many teasers for 1 game.
3)Dont spend more than 5 or 6 hours picking games. If you cant find anything good after that much time, you may force yourself to make bad plays because you havent found many good ones.

SUNDAY

*Minnesota Seattle OVER 40.5-----both teams have good rush defenses and should discover quickly that they'll have to pass to move the ball. Brad Johnson is a 65% passer and should be able to pass Minnesota back into the game should they get behind by too much.

Cleveland +4 and Cleveland (+180) straight up over Denver------Cleveland off a bye coming home after a road loss. Its just that simple. Browns will improve their rush defense and get the home win that they should have got against Baltimore yet just barely didnt. Denver doesnt score enough to cover a 4 point spread.

Minnesota +6 and Minnesota (+240) straight up over Seattle------Vikings have not lost a game by as many as 6 points this year....and they've played the Bears. But the key to the bet is that Minnesota is coming off a bye, and i've been getting killed by off-the-bye teams but this time, I think im going with one.

Arizona vs Oakland UNDER 39.5-------for some reason, Raiders pass defense is statistically good. Yes, they've faced some bad QB's and good rushing teams. But it may be the case that their secondary is good enough to encourage Arizona to try Edgerin James on the ground more. AZ should at least try the run first and give James a chance to produce. With a real chance to win at home, im betting Oakland's d will step up and be effective.....at least for a while. Raiders passing attack is incompetent and they wont wanna blow this game by trying too many passes.

Cleveland +10 teased with Minnesota +12 teased with Minnesota OVER 34.5(+180)------this teaser is sure to win

I should have a commentary soon about yesterday, the bloodiest day in BCLI history, a sick disgusting apostasy from BCLI principles and practices resulting from my curiosity about a $25 3 pick deal from Dave Cokin, a stupid handicapper who I thought was smart, who sold me Georgia as the game of the month, and two underdogs, SMU and UTEP, that were guaranteed to win straight up but failed, EACH OF THEM, to cover by more than two touchdowns.

BCLI SATURDAY STEAM

Purdue vs Wisconsin UNDER 56------Wisconsin knows that the only way they're gonna lose is if Painter, Purdue's QB, has a big day. They don't want a high scoring pass-pass score type of game. So i think they'll try to run more than usual. The Wisconsin pass defense appears extemely good only allowing 123 yds per game through the air. However, they have played Michigan and Auburn and nobody else good. They've put beatdowns on a lot of bad teams to puff up their scoring average(anomaly: they only scored 14 pts vs San Diego State). If you look at the best 3 teams Wisconsin has played(Auburn, Mich and Minnesota) the average points allowed against those 3 is about 16. That's a pretty good defense. Purdue's defensive stats are terrible, but Im betting that in this game, coming home to a big game in which they have a real chance to beat a good team, the defense will have prepared well enough to give a good effort and not quit. 56 is a big number and there's a lot of ways for this to go under. Purdue's d gets a stop, crowd pumps up its momentum. And even if Wisconsin gets up 14-0, they will DEFINITELY run every chance they get to shorten the game and keep Painter off the field.

Oregon vs Washington State UNDER 52------First of all, its been 5 games since WSU played a game in which 52 points were scored. High scoring Cal scored only 21 against WSU. At home, with a chance for a win, I expect the WSU defense, a good one, to be very formidable. Oregon's pass defense is much better than its rush defense so WSU may choose to run a lot. Ok let's look at WSU's offense: 14 points vs Auburn, 17 pts vs Baylor, 13pts vs Oregon State??? dont they suck? And of course 3 pts vs Cal. Oregon does score high, but if the WSU defense(on an educated guess I'd say the best Oregon has faced) can gain any kind of control of this game, this should be an easy under.

Mississippi +21.5(-130) over Arkansas------Wo! buy 1 point and you get 3 td's? I think that's too many points. Statistically, maybe its warranted, but this is a conference game. Based on who these teams have played.....well, lets look at Arkansas vs Vanderbilt: 21-19 WON. Miss vs Vandy: 17-10 WON. ok, they look equal on the vandy metric. Alabama? 23-26 and 24-23. not much difference. Miss vs Georgia: 9-14 LOSS. For Miss to not cover here, Ark needs to really blow them out but im not seeing too many blowouts for Arkansas. Ark vs Utah State: 20-0. not too big. ok, 63-7 vs Southeast Missouri state last game but isnt SEM too weak to count? Dont think Arkansas can pass well enough to get the blowout. 3 td's is 3 td's.

Georgia -17.5 over Miss State-------after 4 non-covers and losing to Vanderbilt last game, I'm betting Georgia will be mad enough to run up the score enough to cover. Against Tennesse, Georgia proved they CAN score against a good team and Mississippi State is not one. MSU has been blown out by LSU, West Virginia and Auburn, 3 good teams yes, but MSU has also lost outright to Tulane. Tulane?! I think Georgia has the defense and the skills to do this, and I'm sure they have the motivation.

SC vs Vanderbilt UNDER 41-----if you throw out these teams' games against weak teams you have SC's scoring aveage at 14.5 and Vandy's average at 14. That equals 28 and the number is 41. Hmmmm, I think this is playable. You look at some of these scores: SC 15-0 vs Miss state, 0-18 vs Georgia. Vandy 7-27 vs Michigan, 10-13 vs Alabama, 10-17 vs Miss. the Defense is there and the offense isnt.

SMU +5 and SMU (+180) over East Carolina----Smu lost to UTEP 2 games ago but that was without their good QB Willis, a 70% passer who can also run, who will be going against a 57% passer. SMU's rush defense is good only allowing 86 yards per game vs EC's 193 yds per game. EC HAS beaten Virginia but they lost 10-31 last game to Tulsa, failing to cover by 18 points, and they appear to have 5 new injuries. Hmmmmmm, maybe SMU can win this game.

Ok, things are currently good here at BCLI so its time to get a little bit speculative:

Miss +26.5 teased with Georgia -11.5 teased with Vandy +9.5(+180)----Vandy may have a let down after their big win at Georgia and SC is off a bye. However, Vandy is 3-1 ATS this year on the road , only having played 3 home games(2 against markedly inferior teams). Perhaps Vandy will appear even better as they get more home games under their belt. And, of course, since SC and Vandy play low scoring games, 9.5 points looks good.

SMU +11 teased with Purdue UNDER 62(-110)

Miss +26.5 teased with Washington state UNDER 58(-110)

Miss +26.5 teased with SC UNDER 47 teased with SMU +11 teased with Georgia -11.5 teased with Wash State UNDER 58 teased with Purdue UNDER 62(+700)

Whew! that's like 11 hours of work....I better win something

Thursday

Central Michigan -1.5 teased with Virginia pick'em(-110)-----Central has covered all their games this year(some by just a point or two though) and they only lost by a td against boston college. And they beat a pretty decent Ball State last game. Their biggest weakness, defending against the pass, probably wont hurt them since Bowling Green doesnt pass very well. North Carolina HAS faced some pretty good teams including Miami, Clemson, Rutgers and Virginia Tech so they may not come out as bad as they statistically are. However, their defense probably will be pretty bad considering they allowed lowly Furman to score 42 points. NC has not covered any spreads this season. Virginia is not a good team either and hasnt covered very often. However, they did put a 37-0 beatdown on Duke, a bad team, yes, but one that gave Wake Forest a run for their money only losing by 1 point. The reason I like Virginia here is that they are seeking redemption after losing by 2 to maryland last game in which they got outscored 21-6 in the 4th quarter. A collapse probably on par with Arizona's monday loss to the Bears. They should have every possible motivation for doing their best at home on national TV against a highly beatable NC after such a pathetic loss. Over the last 3 season's Virginia is 11-4 ATS as a home favorite. Last year they lost at NC 5-7 and have that to avenge, which they apparently are good at being 15-4 ATS over the last 5 season's revenging a loss against a specific opponent.

Stl vs Mets------My -190 bet on the Mets to win this series is hanging by a feeble string. I thought the Mets would hit Weaver and Suppan. They have done the exact opposite. Their offense is still looking weak. And Perez or Trachsel in game 7 is.......a gamble. Perez has some stuff, but he sometimes gets rocked and had a big problem with walks during the regular season. Suppan came on strong at the end of the season and, of course, pitched an 8 inning 3 hitter vs the Mets last start. I doubt he'll do that well again but my general feeling is: the Mets could be in big trouble here and this is a perfect game to not bet on.

BANNED FOR WINNING

And he said: "These are the directions I have. I have directions to execute this." And I said, "Well, I think it's too deep." And he said, "Well, it's the directions we have, and we're going to execute those."
So I said, "Well, Charlie, what do you think?" To the best of my memory, Charlie said, "Well, if you do this, you're going to drive 40,000 to 50,000 Baathists underground by nightfall. The number is closer to 50,000 than it is [to] 30,000."

A fine PBS Frontline expose of how Bush administration fascism, executing an ostensibly anti-fascist de-Baathification strategy, actually engendered the anti-U.S. insurgency in Iraq.

But the Baathists are not the only ones who were driven underground. BannedChatterLateInformation(BCLI) has also been driven underground after a TradeSports Chat conspiracy resulted in it being banned. The question is: Why? We know that BCLI was reported by the notorious chatter '23'. This chatter's psychological profile reads:

probable former name: 'Jeter-23'. probable location: New York area. mental state: pissed that Yankees lost, pissed due to his Denver -14.5 going down while BCLI was touting Oakland +14.5. Education: probably limited due to demonstrated lack of ability to express himself or contribute to TS Chat in any meaningful or worthwhile manner.

BCLI's alleged crime, typing a link into the chat leading clicks to this site, the BCLI site, seems to be relatively minor considering that links are posted in the chatbox all the time leading people to sites containing a wide variety of content. Could '23' have been offended by BCLI's content? Well, I think that's the only reasonable explanation. It is extraordinarily offensive to the psyche of a losing gambler to be reminded that others are winning. And BCLI's unabashed, documented and irrefutable winning content can have an inflammatory effect on those who are struggling with their own losses. Curiously, TradeSports chat does tolerate some types of offensive posting. For example, lets review this TS chat sample:

drugtest (in VIP Room): a rabbi walks into a bar with a frog on his shoulder
drugtest (in VIP Room): the bartender says "where did you get him?"
23 (in VIP Room): israel
drugtest (in VIP Room): the frog says "Brooklyn, there's hundreds of them!"

Could I falsely identify myself as a Jew offended by this joke and make the TS authorities ban these chatters? Probably, but maybe not. Both these chatters have traded more contracts than I have and TS probably takes that into account considering that one chatter who has only traded about 2700 contracts claims to have reported BCLI and that the TS authorities didnt respond to his request for BCLI's banning. Well, the nefarious '23' has traded over 100,000 contracts and when he snitched on BCLI, the TS authorities BANNED BCLI PROMPTLY. Ok, I'll refrain from further speculation about '23's motivation for requesting a banning of BCLI. It doesnt matter. He has made his contribution to TS chat and become a hero to BCLI-haters: Heroism through snitching. But can he make any other contribution to TS chat? I mean, besides completing a mildly anti-semitic joke. I doubt it. And just because I possibly COULD get '23' banned if i reported him, I will not. Telling the teacher, sending someone to the principal's office, snitching, banning people.......that's totally not me and I strongly disapprove of it. BCLI has integrity and will not descend to the base level of jealousy and petty resentment embodied in an action like "Hey, I'm 23 and I've traded 100,000 contracts and since I'm still a whiny little jealous bitch I want BCLI banned because he wins too much and technically he has violated the terms of service."

Mets +115 over Stl----Maine gave up only 2 hits in 4 innings last time and during the season he was very hard to hit; harder to hit than Carpenter. Carpenter WAS hit by the Mets last time and I think he's a little overrated. Mets are a better offense, though in this series they've scored 1 less run than the Cardinals. Surprisingly, the Mets were shut down twice by Weaver and this does say something about how their offense is currently underperforming. However, if Maine can refrain from walking people(he only walked 1 every 2.8 innings during the regular season which isnt bad) and the Mets offense can perform up to their potential, Mets should win. A lot of pressure on them, sure, but just because the Yankees cant handle it doesnt mean they can't.

Tuesday

"Last night was one of the worst calls, I've ever made in this business......"

"Today, I am embarrassed to call myself a handicapper....."

"......and a lot of people will never give me another shot the rest of my life."

----Brandon Lang

If you wanna see the wretchedness of a famous handicapper, one who apparently wrote the movie "Two for the Money", who has still not learned one of the fundamentals of football betting, this link will take you to a video clip. You do not NEED to lose or win money laying big points backing road teams. If you have the ability; the intelligence; the 'sports knowledge' to determine, with absolute certainty, which team is the better team and that such a team is MUCH better than their opponent, this assessment, by you, is not enough to earn you money betting on sports. Its a lesson that players must learn and, in Lang's case certainly, RE-learn. Did I have the guts to take Arizona +12.5? No, but besides winning on a teaser, I avoided making the utterly amateur mistake of not just laying the points against a home team, but also making it a BIG play as Lang did. I'm something spectacularly good like 19-6-2 on non-teaser football bets and almost all of those bets were ON home teams. Taking home teams and NOT taking road favorites: Either way, its gotta be a winning system.

MONDAY NITE BCLI

Arizona OVER 34 teased with AZ +18.5(-110)-------Bears pass defense has only allowed an average of 156 yds per game. I thought that was especially low so i checked it out and found that QB's were completing 58% of their passes against the Bears(that percentage is the same as Mcknabb's and 4 points better than Brady).....yet the points werent showing up due to interceptions. Favre got picked twice as did Hasselbeck vs the Bears and Losman threw 3 interceptions. Bears are a great team, I believe, but they've showed most of their dominance at home(they've only played 2 road games). I predict that AZ, at home on MNF after a loss to KC, which should have been a win, will pick it up and score more than people might expect with Leinart attempting at least 40 passes. I dont think AZ will try to run much as they dont run too well vs anyone and Bears rush defense is very good. By betting this, I'm betting that Chicago's pass defense will come up as a bit overrated, today on the road, and AZ will come up with some good offensive plays to score at least 3 times.
(time is 8:18 pm eastern....lets see what it posts as)

Tale from the Crypt

Having the Jets yesterday to ensure no Fears,
I thought I'd have some fun like Britney Spears. So I went
to tradesports to have a Chat. and like the life of Lindsay Lohan, it spiraled into a Spat. I touted Oakland +14.5 following Jedi's pick, and the haters stiffened up, emulating Pamela Anderson's effect on a dick.
I would estimate that 75% of the other chatters were on Denver -14.5 and so they mocked me. While Oakland was stymied, the haters taunted and cursed all things BCLI, they brightened up like the gleam in Paris Hilton's Eye. One hater made a threat, whose name was '23', this hater's contributions to Tradesports chat had amounted to something slightly more worthless than Harry Potter's little knee. He said if I posted a link to this site, he'd report me, inform on me, snitch on me......and he'd do it with spite.
So when 'Drugpest' and 'Fazz' and the nefarious '23',
dared me to post the link I gave it to them for FREE.
Like the chimera of Angelina Jolie naked on the sand, a fantasy improbable, the harsh reality: I was banned.
Why should I complain now, Im a 75% winner. And the naked Shakira, in my mind, is a SINNER.

Sunday

Recap: BCLI football moved to 18-6-2 and football teasers went 1-0 moving total to 2-1 +.9units

I see too much risk in virtually every single possible bet in the NFL today. Am I worried about besmirching my 75% football record? No, I just dont want to do it with this weeks games. So I only have one play considering the Lions seem to have too many injuries to bet on.

JETS -2.5 over Miami------Jets should have the motivation to improve and play their best after losing on the road by a huge 41-0 in Jacksonville. If the Jets can handle Indianapolis and almost beat them at home, why wouldnt they be able to handle Miami at home? Miami's "good" defense is an illusion built on games against nasty teams like Houston, Tennessee and Buffalo.

Saturday

Recap of BCLI: postseason baseball has moved to 6-5 +2.33units
football plays are at 15-5-2
football teasers are 1-1 -.1unit

PURDUE -.5 teased with OREGON -2.5(-130 7 point teaser)------Northwestern beat Eastern Michigan 14-6. Northwestern just doesnt score. And now, Northwestern's QB is hurt and may not play. Purdue's weak defense wont hurt them against NW's weak offense. Purdue is averaging 33 pts per game against NW's 14. Purdue has scored against all of their opponents and they beat Minnesota. Oregon knows how to score and they've only played 2 home games in which they beat Oklahoma and blew out Stanford. With a few more home games, Oregon's stats could look a lot better, especially on defense. UCLA's schedule has been weak and their 1st string QB went out last game and will definitely be out in this game. UCLA has played only 1 road game this year in which they lost by 10 to Washington(they also failed to cover by 17 points at home against Rice). Oregon will be strong at home and UCLA will be weak on the road with backup QB.

SOUTHERN MISS -1 over Houston------SoMiss has had 4 more days to prepare for this game than Houston will have had. Im getting the impression soMiss seriously underperformed in their last game when they lost to Tulsa 20-6. They'll have a good opportunity to correct their mistakes and be motivated to win this game coming home. Houston's 13-14 game against Miami was impressive for them, but then they went and lost to Louisiana Lafayette. And Miami, of course, is not that good this year as they lost to Florida State....a team that lost to NC State. Now, NC state is a team that SoMiss beat 37-17

Ok State Kansas OVER 52-------Ok state's defense is terrible and they score. Kansas defense is good vs the rush so Ok State should pass a lot. Kansas has had two games, against Toledo and Nebraska where both teams scored over 30 points.

FLORIDA -1.5 over Auburn-------Auburn is at home here, but being at home didnt help them much last game where they lost 27-10 vs Arkansas as a 16 point favorite. Auburn has been exposed as overrated and the linemakers havent quite adjusted as much as they should. Auburn's stats are padded with easy beatdowns on Buffalo and Mississippi State. Florida has beaten Tennessee on the road by 1 and they are only allowing 56 yds per game rushing. Auburn will probably have to try passing more than usual and they dont pass that well(only 177 yds passing per game)

RICE + 5 over uab------Rice is coming home after 3 road games and they should be up for this game, both to redeem a loss last game to Tulane and because this is a game they have a real chance to win. Having played FSU and Texas, and gotten killed by them, Rice's stats probably dont reflect how good they can be. Rice did come within 10 points of UCLA and they killed Army on the road.

Thursday

Mets -173(BCLI line -183) over Stl, Mets -1.5(+120) and OVER 9(-115)------That's 3 bets on the Mets. mets seem to have broken out of their slump and with plenty of lhb's they should rock Weaver and then rock the Cardinals bullpen. After beating the Dodgers, Glavine has earned my respect and deserves to be bet on. This could be a high scoring series. I've seen some free picks with people taking the under because Weaver has been doing well lately. Nevertheless, with lhb's having hit .340 off Weaver and the Mets offense looking strong, I still like these bets. Mets will hit.

Boston College (+115) over Virginia Tech-----VT is overrated. if you take away the 4th quarter, VT would have actually LOST OUTRIGHT to Cincinatti at VT as a
-27 favorite. And last game, VT failed to cover by about 19 points versus Georgia Tech. VT did cover vs NC, a team whose only win came against Furman, 45-42. BC has beaten BYU and Clemson.....and lost only by 2 to NC State on an end-of-the-game type of play. Good spot for home underdog here with BC

BC +8 teased with Colorado State +12.5------Air force doesnt really have a passing attack but CSU does. CSU is supposedly good vs the rush and maybe has a chance to stop AF special wishbone option rushing game. But even if they dont and get behind, they should be able to pass themselves back into a close game. AF defense not particularly good.

Wednesday

*Detroit -106(BCLI line -180) over Oakland-----Tigers were smart last night and took Zito's walks. I didnt know if they would be smart like that but now that they have, there is probably only a 10% chance that they will lose this series. This game here VERLANDER/LOAIZA, is at a ridiculously low number. -106 implies some measure of equality between the teams. But there is no equality.
Tigers regular season batting average: about 15 points higher than Oakland's
Tigers postseason batting average: MUCH higher than Oakland's
Tigers regular season run total: about 60 higher than Oakland's
Loaiza vs Tigers this year: 9inn 14hits 8ER 1bb 5k batting average against: .350
Verlander vs Oakland this year: 20inn 15hits 5ER 6bb 16k ba against .203
There simply is no equality between these teams or pitchers. The only way Oakland can win this game is if the Tigers hit the ball right at the fielders for 9 innings and then Oakland somehow scores a run or two. This game is a MAX bet on tigers.

Tuesday

Recap of record: in postseason baseball BCLI picks have gone 3-4 +.28units
starred postseason is 0-1 -1unit
Football plays(not including teasers) have gone an incredible 14-5-2
starred football plays are 4-1-1
football money lines are 1-0 +1unit
teasers are 0-1 -1.1unit

I've been looking at Mets Cardinals and it looks all Mets. Mets have 5 starters who can bat lefthanded. The Cardinals only have 2 lhp's on their roster and they're both 1 Inn pergame relievers. Weaver vs lhb's this year: .340 opposing batting average. Suppan vs lhb's: .302. Carpenter vs lhb's .266(vs .210 against rhb's). Carpenter, to me, looks overrated. His fastball moves a little, but not quite as much as Wang's. And Carpenter has not faced the Mets this year(i think they'll do ok vs him). And considering that the weak-hitting Padres hit Suppan, I think the Mets will do very well against him. The Cardinals foolishly left Reyes off their roster in favor of Marquis(big mistake). Trachsel went 12 innings vs the cards this year and, altho they scored 7 runs off him, they hit only .222 against him. I think the Cardinals offense is weak other than Pujols and with Lo Duca, Delgado and Floyd hitting over .400 in the post season, I feel confident taking the Mets at -190 to win the series. You need lhp's to keep the Mets offense in check and Stl ONLY HAS 2!!!

Zito can be wild and the Tigers dont walk so i think the A's might win game 1. After which I will be betting the Tigers to win the series at a nice + number. There is some serious offensive weakness on the A's: Bradley and Kotsay are both under .200 in the postseason and Kendall and Chavez are at about .200. The Tigers scored about 60 more runs than the A's over the season and much of the A's offense came from taking walks. Oakland walked about once every 8.5 at bats and that is better than anyone except the Yankees and Redsox. However, the Tigers have the best starting pitching in baseball this year and none of them have a problem with walks.

Mets -168(BCLI line -183) over Stl, Mets -1.5(+120) and OVER 9------That's 3 bets on the Mets. mets seem to have broken out of their slump and with plenty of lhb's they should rock Weaver and then rock the Cardinals bullpen. After beating the Dodgers, Glavine has earned my respect and deserves to be bet on. This could be a high scoring series.

Sunday

BCLI NFL

*Giants -5 over Wash--------Rushing seems to be the Redskins specialty and, altho the NYG defense is bad, against the rush they are only allowing 89ypg---and that's average/good. The NYG pass defense LOOKS bad on paper, but they've faced Peyton, Mcknabb and Hasselbeck. Ask yourself this question: is Brunell(or whoever is the QB for washington) in that class of QB's. Coming off a bye week, and coming home after a big loss at Seattle......perfect situation for dramatic improvement....perfect. Redskins coming off an ot, emotional win....they could easily slack off.

*Bears Billes OVER 34-------Most likely, Bills will get behind by 2 scores and have to start passing more. Sporting News says Losman is improving. Bears passing d ok compared to GREAT against the run, so Bills need to pass probably if they wanna win. Grossman is an offensive weapon and the Bears have put up 34 or more vs Seattle and Detroit.

*New Orleans -6.5 over Tampa Bay-------"The run defense(of New Orleans) is the biggest surprise on one of the league's most surprising teams"--the sporting news. Tampa's rushing has been very weak so they'll probably have to pass. And would you want to bet ON Simms or AGAINST him? probably against. If the Saints game against Atl is a fair indication of how they'll play at home(that was their ONLY home game so far), a line of 6.5 or 7 could look very cheap come the 4th quarter. New Orleans is coming home after a loss so the motivation should be there.

Green Bay +3 over Stl---------Stl, after beating Denver at home, went 2-1 SU against Detroit, Arizona and SF. Are those good teams? NO. Green Bay has faced Bears, Philly, New Orleans.....ALL GOOD TEAMS. Of course GB is gonna look bad statistically; they've faced 3 good teams. And remember: Packers were winning the game at halftime against Philly AT Philly. And GB beat Detroit at Detroit(by a TD) and Stl beat Detroit at Stl(by a TD). I think there's plenty of hidden value in GB if you look at who they've faced.

Vikings Detroit OVER 40.5------Lions have proved that they can score over last 2 games. They've rushed for very few yards so they may try more passing. And both these defenses have done well vs the rush so they might turn to the pass. The risk in this bet may be in Johnson and Kitna being poor passers(maybe they're not really that bad, but Vikes receivers.....who do they have?). However, though the Lions have faced good passers, their pass defense stats are terrible and Johnson may have more success passing against the Lions than he has against any other defense yet this year.

SF -3 over Oakland------SF coming home after being destroyed and humiliated by KC==motivation. Oakland, today, after losing a game they should have won and did win in the 1st half==demoralization. Moss seems to not care. Sporting news: Oakland Offense: F this unit has been horrendous.

Saturday

Kansas State +3 over Ok state-----KSU coming home after 17-3 loss to Baylor. Baylor not too bad coming within 2 points of Washington State. KSU defense is good, having allowed ONLY 24 points against high scoring Louisville(w/ 2nd string QB). Ok State has played Missouri State, Ark st, FlorAtl, and they just lost at Houston. HAVE THEY BEEN TESTED? Good opportunity for KSU offense to step up and win a game. Their D should be strong, especially at home to keep the game close

Kentucky vs So Carolina UNDER 53-----SC defense very good and SC doesnt score very much. Altho Kentucky should try to pass(cuz they dont rush well), SC pass defense has been especially good. Kentucky defense sux, but im hoping they can step up at home to stop a low scoring SC offense.

LSU Florida OVER 43------both rushing defenses are too good for either team to try to run much. And both offenses are significantly better at passing than rushing. THEY BOTH SHOULD CHOOSE TO PASS.


Tennessee(-140) over Georgia------Georgia defense should be exposed here as overrated. Georgia has played South Carolina, Colorado and Miss. These are all teams that dont score much anyway. So what if Georgia shut them down. Miss scored only 14 vs Kentucky(a bad defense) and only 3 points vs Wake Forest. So Miss scores 9 against Georgia and that means Georgia has a great defense????? I dont know about that. Tennessee put up 35 vs Cal and 20 vs Florida. Lets see if Georgia can stop them. And what about Georgia's low scoring? come on, only 14 vs Colorado. To win this game Georgia will probably have to score well, and they havent really proven that they can.

Friday

Detroit +154(BCLI line +111) over Yankees and UNDER 9.5------Randy Johnson: 15 earned runs in his last 17 innings pitched, he's hurt, but they're gonna start him because.....1)he's big? 2) he has experience(he's no tom Glavine)? 3)they're paying him a shitload more than they are Wright or Karstens? I dont know, but I do know that Rogers has valuable experience and has had quite probably(i didnt check but..) his best season in his life. This guy shut down(on like 4 hits every time) the Chicago White Sox 3 times in a row late in the year. He's got stuff, he's got SOMETHING. The Yankees, of course, can hit. But as ive said before, Zumaya wont be hit, cant be hit, hasnt been hit. And he should get some MVP consideration(but of course middle men never get MVP). I think you can bet Detroit with confidence at this price and bet the under for less money for protection in case the Tigers dont hit(Pudge and Inge have not stepped up). Comerica Park has gone over the total 34 times and under 43 times this year. that's pretty significant considering they've already had to install a new fence making it easier to hit HR's because of low scoring there. Its still a difficult stadium to score runs in.

As far as the Twins, they suck and they cant hit. I gave them a chance to win for me with Bonser, and BONSER gave them a good chance to win. But they couldnt do it. The Dodgers? pathetic. they get a lhp to face and they score 1 whole run. Inconsistent offense, all fucking year. Lofton, Drew, not stepping up. My advice: Use Stults and Hendrickson if you make it to game 4.
Dodgers were a good pick yesterday, just didnt win. but BCLI did make a very bad pick yesterday with Cardinals OVER 8.5. That was picked forgetful of the fact THAT THE PADRES DONT HIT AND DONT SCORE. Its been that way all year with them. I guess i did it because i was worried Weaver might get hit because he's not really that good this year. But Padres......they've survived on Young, Peavy and their bullpen. You'd probably have done well betting padres under every game. Bottom line: Stupid BCLI pick. Now, you see im taking Under on Yankees and we know they hit. Rogers is no Weaver. lhb's are hitting about .200 vs Rogers and rhb's .268. And I have a hunch that the Yanks scored most of their runs this season off pitchers much more hittable than Zumaya.

As for the winner of the world series, I can tell you with 80% certainty that it will be an American League team. Lemme check if there's a contract for that.....no, not on TS. But if your sportsbook has a world series bet for AL team vs NL team, bet AL. The only intimidating players the NL has are Pujols and Delgado. Mets: don't think they'll do it having to use Trachsel and possibly Perez. Stl: not enough offense support behind Pujols.

Tale from the Crypt

I thought I'd buy 3 picks for $25 from Scott Spreitzer since he said i'd get a code to call for the next 4 days of his picks for free. His picks were
1)Utah TCU UNDER
2)Dodgers
3)Florida State

Ok, I thought, I'm gonna play the Dodgers anyway; I know that's a good pick. TCU Under looks ok due to injuries and weather. Florida State? One of the reasons I bought these picks is because a lot of handicappers were selling this FSU game. Hmmmm, maybe that's because there's a strong play here. I checked the stats and everything and neither team looked real good. I kind of expected Spreitzer's pick to be NC state +10. It wasnt. Thankfully, I didnt endorse this moronic FSU pick on my site. But I decided to play it anyway....maybe he knows something. Anyway, Spreitzer says his top play is the side on the TCU Utah game, and that the code that I got with the picks would get me that game for free. Ok, I can argue with boiler room neanderthals if I'm entitled to a free pick. So I called. "This game is guaranteed to cover by two touchdowns....This game goes for $500 in Vegas.....I'll get you a week of service for 4 and a half....."
Wait, I called for the free pick.
"The free picks are computer generated, they're 50-50. That's not what you want."
After some more arguing, I said, "are you gonna give me Utah.....?"
"no, no i cant give you that game....(blah, blah, blah)"
I was aware of the extreme line movement from TCU -2.5 to Utah -3 from reading Covers.com. And the injuries. I had already made a small bet on Utah thinking the line might move more and I'd better get in then. Anyway, I finally got him to give me the play:
"you want the free play? its TCU...but that's not what we're playin'"
I made him give me the play again at the end of the argument. Again, it was TCU. So now I was a little confused. They're starting an injured qb and the 3rd string running back....and they are on the road. I decided to leave it at that and just keep my small bet on Utah.
Today I get a call from the same guy: "Did you have NC state and under? (blah) (blah) (blah)"
I stopped him and said, "where'd you get NC State?" He seemed to be trying to imply that Spreitzer or "we" as he said had had NC State(which won) and the under(which lost). He fumbled over his words as I informed him that Spreitzer had sold me Florida State. He then told me about 'action' plays and 'information' plays. The picks I had bought were the action plays. I said, "if Spreitzer tries to claim on his website that he had NC State, he's done in the business...I'll fucking bury him with scam evidence." This guy seemed to be trying to find a way to tell me some game that 'they' had won but the reality was clear: Spreitzer had lost with road favorite Florida State, he'd lost with the Dodgers, he'd won with TCU Under and I'd heard TCU come out of this guy's own mouth and most likely, that meant that Spreitzer had lost with TCU. I had paid $25 to get picks that went 1-3(2 of which were of such low quality that no respectable handicapper would've ever signed off on them unless he was desperate to sell as many games as possible) and this guy was calling me trying to sell me a week of service(for "2 and a half"--200 dollars cheaper than yesterday).
"We're not a soup kitchen....I dont work for free....I've got guys that come in here and give me $500 for these games."
I told him Bill Gates wouldnt pay $500 for a game AND that I'd already contribted $25 to buy the noodles for his soup kitchen. In the end, he wouldnt give me the picks for tomorrow, even though they were supposed to be free and he couldnt identify the game that was guaranteed to cover by 2 touchdowns(there were only two football games and Spreitzer had apparently lost them both). And that's a tale from the crypt of Scott Spreitzer's Smash Mouth Sports.

Thursday

*Dodgers +143(BCLI line La -105) over Mets------This will be my biggest bet in the first round of the playoffs. Mets BA vs lhp's has declined from .260 to .254 in the last month of the season. Beltran: .247 vs lhp's, Green .244 vs lhp's, Delgado .226 vs lhp's and Floyd.....cant hit lhp's at all(not sure if he and Green will even start). but the Dodgers have Saenz .397 vs lhp, Furcal .324 vs lhp, Kent and Garciaparra in the .340's vs lhp. rhb's hit .287 vs Glavine and i cant think of a Dodger besides Drew who doesnt bat righthanded.

Stl +134(BCLI line stl -117) over Padres and OVER 8.5-----Where is Young for the Padres? that guy has dominated this year. Wells is very hittable. Weaver has had a bad season but done better recently. You cant ever really expect the Padres to score much, but against weaver they have a chance.

Utah TCU UNDER 40.5-------TCU's first two running backs are out, QB gonna play w/ injury. 70% chance of rain and high winds.

Detroit +200 over Yanks-----Verlander will SMOKE Jeter. see further analysis below

"Hello and thank you for contacting the Players Help support team.In light of the new legislation in the US restricting financial transactions for all US residents, we are no longer accepting wagers from residents of the United States including those within the US Virgin Islands and US minor outlying areas. We regret to inform you that from 11a.m. Eastern on October 3rd,2006, we will be closing access to all US gaming accounts, this will prevent game play, ECash transactional activity and the registration of new US accounts.All unused deposits, cleared winnings, uncleared winnings made using bonus money, cleared bonuses and the value of accumulated comp points will be automatically paid by check only. The amount to be paid will exclude the value of bonuses received but not cleared by the time the account closure took place. You will receive your check at the address registered in your account within 4 weeks of the account’s closure.We apologize for any inconvenience and sincerely thank you for your patronage.If we can be of any more assistance please do not hesitate to contact us. We are here for you 24 hours per day 365 days per year."

This is my email from Interpoker. In my ledger for Interpoker, it says 52 + 1676. That means they have 52 of my dollars and i've profited 1676 dollars from their site over the last the last year and a half. I can't believe this day has come to pass. The Republican Pedophiles have actually had a REAL impact on my ability to earn money. This is the first time that something the politicians have done has had a concrete effect on me. I am incensed. Interpoker gave a 100$ bonus every month if you deposited that much. And now its gone, for absolutely no fucking good reason. I HATE REPUBLICANS. I WANT REPUBLICANS TO FUCKING DIE, AND DIE IN DISGRACE AND IGNOMINY.

Wednesday

Dear friends@foxnews.com and oreilly@foxnews.com

I really hope i see you foxnews Republican-Fascist-Appeasers drag these Republican-Pedophiles through the muck and slime of public discourse for AT LEAST twice as long as you ratings-exploited the political non-entity Debra Lafaye's private love affair. You know what I want you to say? "THE PEDOPHILE REPUBLICANS ARE USING THEIR PAGEBOYS AS HUMAN SHIELDS!" "HUMAN FUCKING SHIELDS." And the Republican Pedophile from Iowa, the dishonorable Jim Leech-scum, is using the Anti-Internet Gambling bill as a HUMAN SHIELD against the Republican-Pedophile Jack Abramoff INDIAN GAMBLING SCANDAL.
And i really hope I see a discussion of the real rationale behind the Anti-Internet Gambling Bill. Is it
1)The REPUBLICAN PEDOPHILES are bought and paid for by campaign contributions from MGM MIRAGE and HARRAH'S
or
2)The REBUBLICAN PEDOPHILES are using the Anti-Internet-Gambling Bill as a HUMAN SHIELD for the embarrassing "degenerate video poker junkie" chapter in BILL BENNET'S "BOOK OF VIRTUES".

I'd like a fair and fucking balanced debate please. Awwwww, look at that, my Interpoker account has just been "DISABLED". I wonder fucking why? I guess no more $100 monthly deposit bonuses for me to spend on transitory tobacco industry Republican Pedophile campaign contributions. This sucks. I wish I knew how to hack into my local Republican-Pedophile representative's computer to access all that sleazy kiddie porn. Do you know how much money leaves the country when these Republican Pedophile's have to buy their pix from those Dutch and Bulgarian kiddie smut factories? I think this serious issue needs to be addressed.

Wow, 3 school shootings a full two weeks BEFORE the autumnal equinox?? And one on innocent Christian AMISH! girls!???! Somebody downstairs must be pretty fucking mad about something and whoever's upstairs must have been too disgusted with the Republican-Pedophile Leadership to care.

RIP THE REPUBLICAN PEDOPHILES APART. DO YOUR DUTY AS AMERICA'S MOST POWERFUL NAME IN NEWS, OR GO TO HELL.

"Since there will be people doing the micrometer on me, I just want to be clear: I do want to be able to bet the [Buffalo] Bills in the Super Bowl."----------BILL 'REPUBLICAN PEDOPHILE' BENNET

Thank you, BannedChatter.


Minnesota -130(BCLI line -170) over Oakland------A's are being smart to not use Blanton but Loaiza has apparently lost his magic as 3 of his last 5 starts have been bad. Loaiza throws a lot of strikes and Minnesota swings at a lot of strikes. I predict at least 8 hits off Loaiza by free swinging Twins. Bonser has been doing just fine. 1st game jitters should dissipate for the Twins.....and stupidity: they'll walk Thomas today so he wont be a threat.

Detroit +190(BCLI line +160) over Yankees-------I correctly predicted that Jeter would probably hit Robertson, but I guarantee he will be smoked today by Verlander's heat. And if anything goes wrong with Verlander, Zumaya WILL see action. Yankee bettors beware. Mussina throws too many strikes to not be hit be the free swinging Tigers(I'd say 9 hits in 5 2/3 innings). He's got a curve ball but no fastball movement like Wang's sinker. And when he's gone, well, we've seen Proctor and Farnesworth.....they suck.

Tuesday

recap of BCLI's posted season: BCLI plays in baseball 70-54 +21.83units
BCLI line theoretical plays 153-165 -13.19units
BCLI line starred baseball plays 11-6 +4.8units

Basically, over the 40-some days of this blog, I kicked ass. Let's review some of the comments to my blog:

"This blog is a complete joke. A real handicapper doesnt play EVERY game. A real handicapper isnt critical of others... just wins. And this blog does not win"

+ 21.83 units.........do i stutter?

"Guy will fall flaton his face with the way he boasts in chat pit. I dont chat in pit.. but arrogance gets you no where"

"It ain't braggin' if you can do it." ---- Dizzy Dean

"My gut feeling - just another guy who thinks he knows something."

It helps to know something, but you also have to work at it. Making my own line, after just looking at the starting pitchers and not looking at the official line until later, is key. It's something I never did until the middle of this year. Playing the BCLI line on every game would have lost you some units, so its not a "better" line. But it does help you spot games where further analysis can be helpful in making a good decision. I used to think that there was a 'secret' to betting baseball: starting pitchers, playing favorites, playing underdogs, looking at a specific stat et cetera. The reality is that everything matters, but the challenge is discerning HOW MUCH each thing matters. The perfect play is where you have 1)one or more reason's that team A will score 2)one or more reasons that team B wont score and 3) a good price for team A. If you only have 1 or 2 of those conditions, or there's some conflicting information, its probably best to just play a different game or wait for one. That's the secret.
And you can learn a lot from reading this blog......or just from the preceding paragraph.

"BCLI, a line of -130 does not work both ways, right? I am trying to follow your math. If the favorite is -130, then the dog's vig would be taken into consideration in their line, right? Im not being critical, just trying to understand what your doing"

I dont think i saw this comment until I reread my blog. Yes, if the favorite is -130, and Im talking the underdog(which would be +120), I'd count it as +1.2 units if i won. The units are just a way to figure the penalty for losing betting on a favorite and the reward for winning on an underdog. The easiest way to figure it is to just base it on 1 unit, as in, you win 1 unit for winning on a favorite and you lose 1 unit for losing on an underdog. If you lose on the favorite or win on the underdog, then you score it according to what the line is.

Detroit +200(BCLI line +152) over Yankees-----opposing batters hit .277 off Wang. he's not that hard to hit, he just doesnt walk people. The Tigers do not take many walks so they have an advantage against this type of pitcher. Robertson is really not much worse than Wang. lhb's hit .181 off him and the Yankees have, lets see, Giambi, Cano, Abreu, Matsui....they might not all play...and Jeter will probably do well vs Robertson, but there's some value in this line. Interestingly enough, some weeks ago this same matchup came up with the Yankees being
-165(quite a difference from the -240 they are at betus today). I posted a play on Robertson and then the game was postponed.

Lines: Stl +108(BCLI line Stl -108)

Minn -190(BCLI line -196)

I usually dont bet as much on the post season as on the regular season because there are fewer games to choose from. As a player, your advantage is being able to review many games and choose a few. If i had to bet a series, I'd take Minnesota because Oakland will probably have to face Santana twice(if they dont lose in 4) and according to the NYT, they're gonna throw Blanton!! i wouldnt use him if i were manager. oh, wait....Tigers are +300 for the series? yeah, im definitely taking that. Anything can happen in a 5 game series.....K-Rod....Yankees could choke being such a huge favorite......Verlander and Zumaya can dominate.

You know what?, Im taking the Dodgers too. The Mets dont have an acceptable #3 pitcher, unless its Maine, and it doesnt look like the Mets have chosen him yet. they might prefer age before talent and use Trachsel. And Kuo, a lhp, is good because the Mets, on top of the fact that they've been slumping recently, have been getting weak vs lhp's.

Sunday

BCLI NFL

*Oakland +3 over Cleveland------Oak coming off a bye, coming home with something to prove. Raiders have faced SD and Balt: 2 good teams. they got killed, so you know they've been practicing with sufficient motivation.

*Bears vs Seattle OVER 34.5-----with Alexander out, I dont see how the game plan for Seattle wont be to pass. Passing, I believe, is the key to games going over since it either stops the clock, making the game longer, or gets a team downfield quickly AND stops the clock. From what I could tell, seattle stopped the run well in the Giants game....and then Manning went crazy in the second half passing. Bears should know this and, with Grossman being hot this year, choose to pass also. both defenses have been great, but its mostly because they've stopped the run(having allowed well under 100 yards per game). Hasselbeck and Grossman are stars.....I am convinced they will be called upon to pass a lot and there's no real evidence that these defenses are outstanding at stopping the pass.

New Orleans +7 over Carolina------Steve Smith comes back for Panthers. Ok, so their offense will be better. But what about their defense letting sorry ass Tampa Bay put up 24 against them last game? I believe in Brees, I think he's good. If Carolina gets a 2 score lead in this game, I think Brees has the skills to bring the game back within 7 points.

San Francisco +7 over KC-------KC is coming off a bye week and coming home but they may not be able to exploit SF's biggest weakness: its pass defense. KC just hasnt got many passing yards. But even if KC has learned to pass over the bye week, they may not be able to stop SF from scoring. Sf has scored at least 20 in every game and when you score like that, you have a good chance of covering a 7 point spread.

Az vs Atlanta OVER 41------here's another one where both teams should attempt to pass. I dont think Vick's a very good passer, but with AZ's poor pass defense, Falcons should at least try more than usual. Az's rushing has been weak and Atl's rush defense has been very good. Thus, Az must choose to pass more than usual.