Sunday, December 31, 2006


*Michigan (pk) over USC------I've looked at a lot of college and pro games this weekend and this is the only one where i can see a strong argument for only 1 side of the game. USC's rush defense allows 97 yards per game. That's pretty good and it is possible that Michigan is at a disadvantage since they prefer to rush and get a lot of their offense from rushing. However, I think its probable that USC hasnt faced an offensive line like Michigan's. The Pac-10 is all about high-scoring passing games. And if you look at Mich against Ohio State(a team with a rush defense as good as USC's) you'll see that Michigan rushed for over 150 yards. So I think Mich will try to run and could be quite successful. But even if Michigan has to pass, Henne has proven that he can do what he needs to do. Coming within 3 points of Ohio State AT Ohio State was impressive enough for Michigan. But if you take away those 2 long OSU runs from scrimmage(very uncharacteristic of Michigan to allow many yards against the run), Michigan could have won it. USC is 6-6 ATS this year, but I think they're more overrated than they appear. They beat Cal convincingly, but Cal had 3 turnovers against none for USC. UCLA beat USC and the turnover numbers were equal for both teams. UCLA held USC to only 9 points........and then went on to hold a weak Florida State to 44 points! I think its safe to say that Michigan's defense is every bit as good as UCLA's and probably more than a bit better. USC will HAVE TO pass against Michigan and if they want to win, they'll have to pass extremely well making no mistakes. I doubt that will happen and would not be surprised if Michigan controls this game on the line and wins easily. (Lose by 14.....pathetic effort from Michigan....offensive line played like little bitches.....Carr should be fired......Big Ten is disgraced.....Ohio State is devalued......Boise State is #1)

Memphis Houston OVER 182.5 (188.5) REST3 (Win by 37.5)

Thursday, December 28, 2006


Rutgers -1.5 teased with Alabama UNDER 54 (+100 at Pinnacle)------Kansas State's record looks a bit sketchy with a 3-17 Baylor loss and a 20-39 Kansas loss. KState did, however, beat Texas. They did it by passing(since nobody runs on Texas) but Rutgers' pass defense allows only 152 yards per game and that's about 70 yards better than Texas' pass defense. KState's run defense is weak and Rutgers prefers to run and runs well. Rut's defense will be the best KSU has seen and i dont see how Rut can lose without a bizaare turnover disaster. When Oklahoma state faces a good defense, this is what you get: 10-36 loss to Texas. OSU has built their stats against some questionable defenses while Alabama has faced Florida, Lsu, Arkansas, Tennessee, Auburn and Hawaii......some of the best teams in the country. It is hard to ignore that Alabama held Hawaii(them of the 73 o/u numbers) to only 17 points in their first game. It's also hard to ignore that Alabama doesnt score much(though OSU's weak defense might give them a chance). OSU should not score more than 21 points because Alabama's pass D is as good as Texas' pass D. (Lose by 11....thanks Alabama, you fucking losers)

BCLI NBA is now 21-14 (+5.6units) on the season

Wednesday, December 27, 2006


Cleveland Atlanta UNDER 187 (190.5) REST8 (Win by 22)
Lakers Orlando UNDER 189.5 (194) REST6 (Lose by 9.5)
Milwaukee Memphis OVER 203 (199) REST2 (Win by 5)

Tuesday, December 26, 2006


Chicago Minnesota UNDER 189.5 (191) REST6 (Lose by 8)
Clippers Utah UNDER 198(198) REST6 (Win by 4)
Portland Phoenix UNDER 209(202.5) REST8 (Win by 12)

Monday, December 25, 2006


*Miami -2.5 over Jets-------revenge game for Dolphins. 1st meeting this season Jets won 20-17 but Miami actually had 120 or so more yards on offense. Jets coming off big upset over Vikings(which probably required extraordinary effort) while Miami is coming home off a road loss. Jets score more points(4) on average than the Dolphins, but Miami's offense gets slightly more yards. On defense, though, there is actually a big difference with Miami's defense being significantly better(60-70 yards per game). good spot to take a home team. (Lose by 5.5-----Jets defense deserves some respect)

Sunday, December 24, 2006


Tennesse +10.5 teased with New Orleans +9 teased with Arizona/San Fran UNDER 51 (+180)-------The Tenn/Buff game looks like an even matchup, two 7-7 teams, playing well, trying to make the playoffs. Both teams have a tendency to run and it could be a low scoring game(judging by the o/u number) where 10.5 points easily gets the money. Buff doesnt score enough to blow teams out and Tenn has only been blown out once with a trio of picks by Vince Young vs Jacksonville. New Orleans' defense has been excellent lately allowing fewer than 20 points in numerous games. Giants pass d looks vulnerable especially here against Brees and they have injury problems on the line. Saints are 6-1 ATS on the road and Giants are 2-4 ATS at home. Saints are clearly a better team than the Eagles who whipped NYG at NYG last week and should cover 9 points even if the Giants make an heroic stand for their season, and Tiki Barber, today. AZ should run more against SF, as everyone does because SF has a rushable defense. Both QB's are prone to interceptions so they shouldnt pass if the opposing D's allow rushing yards(and these defenses do). I expect a running game here. (Win by 11.5 and 32 and 5)

Arizona State Hawaii UNDER 73-------73 points! are you kidding? ok, ok, Hawaii passes and scores a lot. But while Hawaii was putting up 68 points against IDAHO and LOUISIANA TECH, Az State was playing real teams in the pac-10. ASU was holding USC, yes, a top 5 team, to only 28 points. Yeah, Hawaii went over 70 against Purdue and up to 67 against Oregon State. But lets look at Purdue's passing defense: 242 yards per game. Oregona state: 213 yards per game. Well, ASU's pass defense is better than that: 181 yards per game. and also, ASU has a running game and im sure they'll use it to avoid the shootout. (Win by 8)

Detroit Lions (+210) over Bears------Bears have much to lose by getting a stupid injury, but, technically, nothing to gain by playing hard in this game. They have secured home field advantage. For the Lions, you could say they have a draft pick to gain by losing, but I don't think players really think like that. If you're a player, you want wins and you want wins at home more than anything. Losing sucks and Im sure the Lions will have A LOT more motivation to win than the Bears. They beat Atlanta and Buffalo at home and ALMOST beat New England on the road. I took Detroit against Minnesota and they blew it. So this is it: the LAST chance for the Lions to win(they wont win at Dallas in their last game). (Lose by 5.....well, at least they covered the spread)

Saturday, December 23, 2006


South Florida +1 teased with South Florida/East Carolina UNDER 49.5(+100 Pinnacle)-----hard to ignore that only 39 points were scored when SF played Louisville. Both defenses are good here and they both may run due to run defenses being weaker than pass d's on both teams. SF beat West Virgina, came within 2 points of Rutgers and shut down Pitt's offense. EC doesnt really have many impressive wins because they havent played strong teams like SF has. And EC's outright LOSSES to Rice(a team exposed yesterday as being pathetic) and Navy are impossible to ignore. SF should try to run, and i think they'll succeed, due to EC's 140 ypg run defense. (Win by 18 and 18.5)

Minn Indiana OVER 188 (191) REST2 (Lose by 39....i'll remember this shyte)
Spurs New Orleans OVER 180 (180) REST2 (Win by 9)
Utah Memphis OVER 191 (196) REST2 (Win by 6)

Friday, December 22, 2006


*Utah Charlotte OVER 193 (198) REST4 (Lose by 3.....UTAH, wtf?)

Houston San Antonio OVER 181 (188.5) REST4 (Lose by 6......SAN ANT, wtf?)

Wednesday, December 20, 2006


*GS Boston UNDER 219.5 (206.5) REST6 (Win by 27.5)
Miami Milwaukee UNDER 203 (198) REST6 (Lose by 13)

Tuesday, December 19, 2006


Toronto Phoenix UNDER 215.5 (205) REST5 (Win by 2.5)

Monday, December 18, 2006


Wash Denver OVER 211.5 (210) REST3 (Win by 13.5)
Dallas Sacramento OVER 191 (195.5) REST4 (Win by 9)

Colts -3(-125) over Bengals------it would certainly be appropriate for Indy's defense to step up here at home after two losses. The QB's are the main weapons in this game and there is a CLEAR advantage for Colts as their pass defense allows like 80 yards less by pass than Cincy's. Cincy has been beating easy teams. Dont forget than Cincy has actually LOST to Tampa and Atlanta(something Indy would never do) and just barely beat Carolina(a team that really sucks). Would not be surprised if Indy reasserted its superiority here with a blowout. 3 points is cheap. (Win by 18-----Correct: a blowout)

Sunday, December 17, 2006


Pitt Carolina OVER 38-------Carolina scored only 13 points vs the Giants last game, but let's look at what Weinke did: 61 passing attempts for 423 yards. That's quite an anomaly to only score 13 when your QB does that. Weinke did throw 3 interceptions so maybe that explains it. Even if it were Delhomme at QB, I think that its reasonable to assume a pass-heavy game plan from Carolina considering Pitt's D is pretty good vs the run. Furthermore, Polamalu is injured in Pitt's secondary and Gamble is injured for Carolina at Cornerback. Even if they play, it would probably be a good idea for both these teams to test them with passing. Bottom Line: you just cant ignore the fact that Weinke was allowed to come in at QB and throw 61 times. If he threw that much vs NYG, he should throw at least 40 times vs Pitt. (Win by 2----Carolina sux)

Jets Minnesota OVER 40.5----------Jets have gone over the total 9 times this year against only 4 unders(>67%). And Minn is a good team to go over against because you MUST pass against them since they simply dont allow any rushing yards. Jets have been delivering 30-some passing attempts(which is good enough for an over) consistently but against the Vikings, I'd expect 40 passing attempts at least. I watched Minn last week and Pinner was running like his life depended on it. If he runs like that against a weak Jets rush defense, I think Minnesota's offense will be successful enough to put this game over 40 points. Vikes probably WILL run, which is always risky for an over bet, but I'm betting they run well and Im sure the Jets will pass. (Lose by 2-----Wrong: Minnesota ran for only 60-some yards, poor, but they DIDNT USE PINNER! Stupid, bad coaching. Correct: Jets throw 40 times for an incredible 80 TOTAL PASSING ATTEMPTS IN THIS GAME and it fails to go over the total. God, Minnesota sux.)

Saturday, December 16, 2006


*Memphis Miami OVER 184 (189) REST2 (Win by 4)
Boston Charlotte OVER 195.5 (195) REST3 (Win by 10.5)
Chicago Atlanta OVER 191.5 (194) REST2 (Win by 18.5)

Thursday, December 14, 2006


Orlando Charlotte OVER 181.5 (188) REST2 (Win by 6.5)

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

BCLI record after December 12th

51-34 (60% on all -110 non-teaser, non moneylines in football)
8-11 (-5.55units) teasers
7-13(-3.06units) ml's
18-11(62%) o/u's
8-6-1 on starred bets
Overall in football: +5units

NBA 7-5

+ .2816 units per day since beginning(includes +24.48 units on baseball)
BCLI dime players expected to make $102,200 this year.

Atlanta New York OVER 194.5 (197) REST3 (Lose by 18)
Milwaukee New Jersey OVER 203.5 (201) REST3 (Lose by .5)

Seattle Chicago OVER 197.5 (197) REST3 (Lose by 14.5)

Tuesday, December 12, 2006


Denver Atlanta UNDER 209.5 (203.5) REST5 (Win by 22.5)

Sunday, December 10, 2006


DETROIT (-111) over Minnesota------ever since I bet Vikings on MNF against NE I've been waiting for a chance to get my money back by betting against Minn......and apparently I've missed many chances as Minn has failed to cover their last 6 games!! And today, Chester Taylor, a major part of their offense, is listed as "DOUBTFUL". So Minn looks to be coming in weak. Lions have failed many bettors but not me, because I havent bet on them yet. Last week they almost beat a huge team, the Patriots, arguably the 4th best team in the NFL. And in situations this year where a team has 'almost' beaten a big team, I've observed that that team does well the next week. So I'll try the Lions here, mindful that they did crush ATL at home meaning that they CAN win. This is also a revenge game for Detroit as Minn has beaten them already. (Lose by 11---Revenge game for Pinner....bad pick......the over was the play)

Jacksonville (pk) over Colts-------Manning was 14/31 for 219yds against Jax the first time they played. I'll call that a successful defense against him. But Indy won so this is now a revenge spot for the Jaguars. Impressively, Jax scored 24 last week against a good Miami defense and rushed for 150 yds. Colts rushing defense is much worse than Miami's so Jax could be very good running today and there's a good chance they'll contain Manning as they did before. (Win by 27)

New Orleans Dallas UNDER 47.5------Im confident Cowboys will choose to rush as Saints defense is allowing 133 yds per game rushing(not good). Both defenses have been looking pretty solid with NO coming off 2 good defensive games. Saints probably will be passing but their effectiveness will probably be hampered now that Horn is hurt as well as Colston(both WR's are listed as 'QUESTIONABLE'). (Lose by 12-----Brees is more reliable than Cowboys defense at home....thanx dallas you suck)

Indy Jax UNDER 44-------we KNOW jax will be running a lot because Indy has failed to stop the run. And if Jag's defense plays up to its potential here at home, Colts offense could score less than the 21 they scored the first time against Jacksonville. (Lose by 17---correct about the running but they ran WAY too well against sorry Colts.....good D from Jax though)

BALTIMORE +3 over Kansas City-------Balt has had 3 more days to prepare than KC and only allows 75 yds per game rushing. With KC being a rushing team with Larry Johnson, this could be a serious problem for Chiefs if they get stopped on the run and have to pass alot(something they dont do well). (Win by 13)

MIAMI +3.5(-115) over New England-----can't ignore this home dog. NE almost lost to the Lions last week and could be weakening. Brady is on the injury list and Maroney is 'QUESTIONABLE'. could be a tough game for NE. (Win by 24.5)

Saturday, December 09, 2006

Saturday BCLI NBA

*Minnesota Chicago OVER 189 (190) REST2 (Lose by 17)
*Clippers Memphis OVER 186.5 (192) REST2 (Lose by 15)
Houston Washington OVER 192 (191) REST2 (Win by 31)

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

BCLI NBA wednesday

Toronto Cleveland UNDER 196.5 (193.5) REST8 (Win by 10.5)

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Tuesday BCLI NBA

Atl Seattle UNDER 202.5 (197.5) REST5 (Win by 13.5)

Sunday, December 03, 2006


Arizona St Louis UNDER 47-------Rams have a very poor rushing defense allowing 154 rushing per game. Why wouldnt Arizona go to James here? Leinart is not that great of a passer and even if AZ does pass.....they might not score due to failed passing. Check the Chiefs in a recent game vs the Rams: only 15 passing attempts!!! And then Seattle only passed 23 times vs the Rams after that. AZ's rush defense allows 122 yards per game on the ground so STL could choose to rush a bit more also. Leinart should have no where near the 51 passing attempts he had last week vs the Vikings(having a GREAT rushing defense). Bottom line: no reason for AZ to pass unless they get way behind early. (Lose by 7 but CORRECT--Leinart only 24 passing attempts)

SF New Orleans UNDER 45----------49ers are consistently using Gore and not their QB to generate offense and Saints rush defense seems to be much weaker than it was. It is a LOCK that SF will have under 30 passing attempts. But NO should refrain from passing as well(they might not but...) as SF's defense is rushable and Saint's RB's seem to be in good condition. Over the last several games, SF's defense is drawing about 32 passing attempts. Even if Brees airs it out a bit, I'd be surprised if this game saw over 60 total passing attempts. And 45 is a pretty high number to go over if you only have 50-some passing attempts in the game (Win by 1. CORRECT--SF only 28 passing attempts)

Tennessee Indy UNDER 47--------both defenses are rushable so I expect some running. the first time these teams played at indy you had a score of 14-13 with an o/u number of 48 and only 51 passing attempts in the game(and only 1 or 2 interceptions). So the game goes under by 21 points and this time the o/u is still high(47). Indy's pass defense is pretty good so im pretty sure Tenn will deliver very few passing attempts or will fail to score much if they pass. (Win by 10. CORRECT--Tennessee only 25 passing attempts)

Tenn +7.5 over Indy-------if you can come within 1 point at Indy.....and now you're at home......i think it would be a drastic failure if Tenn doesnt cover 1 td. (Win by 10.5)

Minn Chicago OVER 34--------minn's defense against the rush is (55 yds per game) awesome and barring a colossal snowstorm(i guess it might snow) i think these offenses will have to pass to move the ball. Bears run defense is also very good.(Win by 2)

Saturday, December 02, 2006

Saturday BCLI NBA

*Phi/NJ UNDER 197 REST8 (195) (Lose by 22)
Seattle/Utah OVER 202.5 REST3 (202) (Win by 13.5)

Wash/Chi OVER 202 REST2 (198.4) (Win by 4)
Cleve/Hou OVER 180 REST4 (186) (Lose by 36)

Florida -2.5 over Arkansas-----Mcfadden constitutes too much of Arkansas' offense. And with Florida allowing only 69 yards rushing on average, there is evidence that Mcfadden will be stopped. Ark passing is weak. Ark beat Tenn when Tenn had Crompton at QB(a weakened condition) so that can be discounted.

Rutgers +10.5 over West Virginia------2 rushing teams with good rushing defenses. However, Rutgers' pass defense is better. WV's QB is better, pat white, but is listed as 'QUESTIONABLE' with an ankle injury. But even if White were %100 healthy, I think I would like to have 10.5 points in this game. WV does bury teams, but Rutgers' defense is quite a bit better than the 'average' team that WV has played.

Friday, December 01, 2006


Denver/Minnesota UNDER 206 (199) REST6 (Win by 8)
Milwaukee/Phoenix UNDER 219 (205.5) REST5 (Lose by 19)

The BCLI sports betting laboratory has uncovered a system with some promise (like 12-4 on NBA totals). REST6 means the teams have had a combined 6 days of rest coming into the game. The number in parenthesis is what offensive and defensive stats for the season would suggest the o/u number would be. The theory is that teams that are rested (REST6 or more than 6) will have more energy to spend on playing defense and this 'added' effort will be enough to put the total under. Conversely, a team that is not rested(REST2 or REST3) should be weak on defense and allow for a higher scoring game.