Tuesday

recap of BCLI's posted season: BCLI plays in baseball 70-54 +21.83units
BCLI line theoretical plays 153-165 -13.19units
BCLI line starred baseball plays 11-6 +4.8units

Basically, over the 40-some days of this blog, I kicked ass. Let's review some of the comments to my blog:

"This blog is a complete joke. A real handicapper doesnt play EVERY game. A real handicapper isnt critical of others... just wins. And this blog does not win"

+ 21.83 units.........do i stutter?

"Guy will fall flaton his face with the way he boasts in chat pit. I dont chat in pit.. but arrogance gets you no where"

"It ain't braggin' if you can do it." ---- Dizzy Dean

"My gut feeling - just another guy who thinks he knows something."

It helps to know something, but you also have to work at it. Making my own line, after just looking at the starting pitchers and not looking at the official line until later, is key. It's something I never did until the middle of this year. Playing the BCLI line on every game would have lost you some units, so its not a "better" line. But it does help you spot games where further analysis can be helpful in making a good decision. I used to think that there was a 'secret' to betting baseball: starting pitchers, playing favorites, playing underdogs, looking at a specific stat et cetera. The reality is that everything matters, but the challenge is discerning HOW MUCH each thing matters. The perfect play is where you have 1)one or more reason's that team A will score 2)one or more reasons that team B wont score and 3) a good price for team A. If you only have 1 or 2 of those conditions, or there's some conflicting information, its probably best to just play a different game or wait for one. That's the secret.
And you can learn a lot from reading this blog......or just from the preceding paragraph.

"BCLI, a line of -130 does not work both ways, right? I am trying to follow your math. If the favorite is -130, then the dog's vig would be taken into consideration in their line, right? Im not being critical, just trying to understand what your doing"

I dont think i saw this comment until I reread my blog. Yes, if the favorite is -130, and Im talking the underdog(which would be +120), I'd count it as +1.2 units if i won. The units are just a way to figure the penalty for losing betting on a favorite and the reward for winning on an underdog. The easiest way to figure it is to just base it on 1 unit, as in, you win 1 unit for winning on a favorite and you lose 1 unit for losing on an underdog. If you lose on the favorite or win on the underdog, then you score it according to what the line is.

Detroit +200(BCLI line +152) over Yankees-----opposing batters hit .277 off Wang. he's not that hard to hit, he just doesnt walk people. The Tigers do not take many walks so they have an advantage against this type of pitcher. Robertson is really not much worse than Wang. lhb's hit .181 off him and the Yankees have, lets see, Giambi, Cano, Abreu, Matsui....they might not all play...and Jeter will probably do well vs Robertson, but there's some value in this line. Interestingly enough, some weeks ago this same matchup came up with the Yankees being
-165(quite a difference from the -240 they are at betus today). I posted a play on Robertson and then the game was postponed.

Lines: Stl +108(BCLI line Stl -108)

Minn -190(BCLI line -196)

I usually dont bet as much on the post season as on the regular season because there are fewer games to choose from. As a player, your advantage is being able to review many games and choose a few. If i had to bet a series, I'd take Minnesota because Oakland will probably have to face Santana twice(if they dont lose in 4) and according to the NYT, they're gonna throw Blanton!! i wouldnt use him if i were manager. oh, wait....Tigers are +300 for the series? yeah, im definitely taking that. Anything can happen in a 5 game series.....K-Rod....Yankees could choke being such a huge favorite......Verlander and Zumaya can dominate.

You know what?, Im taking the Dodgers too. The Mets dont have an acceptable #3 pitcher, unless its Maine, and it doesnt look like the Mets have chosen him yet. they might prefer age before talent and use Trachsel. And Kuo, a lhp, is good because the Mets, on top of the fact that they've been slumping recently, have been getting weak vs lhp's.