Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Wednesday

*Detroit -106(BCLI line -180) over Oakland-----Tigers were smart last night and took Zito's walks. I didnt know if they would be smart like that but now that they have, there is probably only a 10% chance that they will lose this series. This game here VERLANDER/LOAIZA, is at a ridiculously low number. -106 implies some measure of equality between the teams. But there is no equality.
Tigers regular season batting average: about 15 points higher than Oakland's
Tigers postseason batting average: MUCH higher than Oakland's
Tigers regular season run total: about 60 higher than Oakland's
Loaiza vs Tigers this year: 9inn 14hits 8ER 1bb 5k batting average against: .350
Verlander vs Oakland this year: 20inn 15hits 5ER 6bb 16k ba against .203
There simply is no equality between these teams or pitchers. The only way Oakland can win this game is if the Tigers hit the ball right at the fielders for 9 innings and then Oakland somehow scores a run or two. This game is a MAX bet on tigers.

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