Tuesday, October 24, 2006

BCLI RESULTS

24-14-2 (63%) on all single football bets
7-5 +3.48units on post season baseball
5-5 -1.7units on teasers
2-3 + .1unit on football moneylines
5-1-1 (83%) on starred football plays
10-3 (77%) on football over/under bets

Ok, with BCLI's record coming down to a more human level of 63%, I expect haters to be more tolerant of me(because on saturday I was a big loser, and became more akin to them). However, if you look at BCLI's football totals record and starred plays, you may still catch an image of the divine. BCLI's blog is, of course, a documented learning experience and it is important to analyze the disaster on Saturday to make sure that can be avoided in the future. After spending like 10 hours looking at games of Friday, I had come up with the Purdue UNDER, a brilliant pick which hit with 29 points to spare, the Washington State UNDER, a good pick that lost when pandemonium broke loose in the 4th quarter and 28 points were scored, Mississipi +21.5, a decent pick which lost on a lucky 100 yard kickoff return to start the game, another long run where the guy actually stepped out of bounds but video evidence was not 'indisputable', and the fact that Miss went for it on 4th(at least once, maybe twice) down when they were deep in Arkansas territory and SC-Vandy UNDER, a pick that probably shouldnt have been made considering SC was coming off the bye and that sometimes makes teams come out STRONG as SC did both offensively and defensively and the fact that Vandy was on a 'let-down' after a big win. Stop!
1. Off-the-bye teams TRUMP home field advantage as we saw with South Carolina AND the Minnesota Vikings both winning on the road.
Anyway, I decided that Saturday would be the day I finally paid Dave Cokin some money to see how good he was(I have seen Cokin in Vegas doing his radio show in the Stardust and always suspected he was pretty good). So for $25, Cokin would give me The Game of the Month and 2 underdogs that were GUARANTEED to win straight up. The first dog, UTEP over Houston AT Houston, I didnt even understand it as I had almost decided to bet Houston -6.5 because they were coming home after a loss: fundamental BCLI reasoning. Cokin tried to justify the pick with something like 'where has Houston's rushing offense gone?' Who cares? they're AT HOME! The second dog guaranteed to win was SMU, I decided to endorse this pick and make it a BCLI pick due to East Carolina's injuries and Willis' prowess at QB. But, of course, I was overlooking the simple fact that EAST CAROLINA WAS AT HOME. Ok, so both those purchased picks failed to cover by more than 2 td's. The game of the month was Georgia -17.5 and I bought into Cokin's reasoning that Georgia would bounce back at home(should have realized that Georgia HAD LOST AT HOME the previous game and this indicated that Georgia FUCKING SUCKS) and unload against a weak team. However, there were a couple problems: 1)Georgia had done virtually nothing this season to prove that they were NOT overrated and 2) 17.5 points.
Anyway, I believed in Cokin and I believed in a pick because he had called it 'GAME OF THE MONTH'. So far, I have spent $62 on picks from Glenn Mcgrew, Scott Spreitzer and Dave Cokin. Those picks have gone 2-7-1. 2-7-1! That is an atrocity. I mean, if you are an experienced handicapper and you perhaps talk to other smart handicappers, I can see how you could win at a good pace every year and make money selling winning picks. But it appears that these idiots have succumbed to the temptation to sell too many games.

2)another mistake i made was putting Mississippi in 3 different teasers. That's too many teasers for 1 game.
3)Dont spend more than 5 or 6 hours picking games. If you cant find anything good after that much time, you may force yourself to make bad plays because you havent found many good ones.

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