Friday, August 31, 2007

TORONTO(Marcum) -120 (BCLI line -157) over Sea(Washburn)------Washburn is an ok pitcher, but he's been getting slightly worse as the season has progressed. Rhb's hit .293 off him and Rhb's are what he gets to face in Toronto. BlueJays have hit lhp's better all year and are now at .294 vs them. Marcum is having an excellent season and that's why he's at 11-5 on a .500 team. He also shut out the Mariners for 6 innings on July 1st(Win 7-5)

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

TAMPA(Shields) -125 over Balt(Trachsel)--------------Hitters hit .280 off Trachsel and he walks 1 every 2 innings. He has already been hit well by Tampa. Shields, of course, is good. Tampa's offense is kicking ass. 15, 7, 14, 12.....that's their last 4 games. And with the Orioles having the worst bullpen in baseball history, Tampa just cant lose this. (Win 5-4)

Mets(Perez) vs Phi(Moyer) UNDER 11(-120)---------Moyer's been rocked his last two starts, but the Mets..........their offense is FUCKING INCOMPETENT. If they cant rock Wells, then they cant rock Moyer. Perez is good and he K's a lot of batters. 11 is, of course, a ridiculously high number for a national league game. Philly's ballpark has had 34 overs and 29 unders and an average of 10.8 runs are scored there per game. That's high, but with the Mets sick offense and Perez's strikeouts, I'll go under on 11. (Win 3-2)

CIN(Harang) -107 (BCLI line -120) over Pitt(Snell)--------Reds ripped Snell on August 3rd. Snell is getting worse late in the season. Lhb's hit .285 off him. Harang is hard to hit and does not walk people; and he keeps the Reds sick bullpen out of the game(Win 8-0)

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

CLEVE(Westbrook) -152 (BCLI line -190) over Minn(Bonser) (Win 6-5)
Cleve -1.5 (+135) over Minn-------------------Westbrook, who is pitching amazingly well now, shut down the Twins July 27th while Bonser has been rocked by the Indians. Bottom line: Westbrook too good right now (Lose 6-5.......I love it how Borowski can come in, allow 3 hits and 2 runs in 1 inning, and jump around after the 3rd out like he did something good. YOU FUCKING LOST IT, YOU FAT POLISH PIECE OF SHIT)

*BOSTON(Matsuzaka) +104 (BCLI line -105) over Nyy(Pettitte)---------Wow, money coming in on the Yankees. Do they realize that Boston has scored 35 runs in its last 3 games? Even before that, the Red Sox offense was producing well. And the Yankees bullpen......proving its inferiority once again last night. Boston has the lowest bullpen ERA and the Yanks are 18th on that metric. Also, Yanks bullpen has walked more people than any other bullpen in baseball. Pettitte has pitched two great games vs Angels and Tigers, I DONT think he has another good game in him against the Red Sox here. Boston is up to .283 vs lhp's and they are destroying pitchers. I dont care how bad the Yankees NEED this game, Boston has an offensive advantage and a pitching advantage.......and number is now +120. Take that. (Lose HR by Damon)

TEXAS(Gabbard) -157 (BCLI line -160) over Cws(Floyd) (Win 4-3)
Texas -1.5 (+125) over Cws-----------I love Gabbard......and Floyd has gotten rocked virtually every time he has pitched. Gabbard has already shut down the Whitesox once. Cant trust the Rangers offense but against Floyd? They have to hit him(Lose 4-3.....the under, why didnt i just take the fucking under?)

Monday, August 27, 2007

DET(Verlander) -109 (BCLI line -140) over Nyy(Mussina)(Win 16-0)

Sunday, August 26, 2007

*STL(Wainwright) -155 (BCLI line -165) over Atl(Reyes) (Win 4-1)
*STL -1.5 (+130) over Atl------------------Wainwright going deep into games and doing well......shutdown Braves July 20th. Cardinals average vs lhp's up to .270. While facing the last 9 left handed starting pitchers, Stl has scored 41 earned runs in 44 innings against them. Read: STL IS MURDERING LHP'S LATELY. And Reyes has been a TERRIBLE lhp. Just look at his numbers. He's got rocked by everyone except.........Stl, strangely. He actually pitched a 5 inning 3-hitter vs them. I can virtually GUARANTEE that wont happen again; in fact, Im sure he'll get rocked. (Win 4-1)

METS(Maine) -170 (BCLI line -200) over Lad(Wells)--------Why is Wells starting against the Mets? Mets are at .289 vs lhp's and they've been even better vs lhp's earlier in the season. This is one of those rare times when I will trust the Mets offense. Dodgers offense is questionable, especially against Maine. (Lose 6-2.......I KNEW the Mets offense was unreliable. Why did I make this bet? Bad bet. If they cant beat Wells with Maine pitching, they're not gonna beat anyone in the playoffs)

Pitt(Armas) vs Hou(Rodriguez) OVER 9.5 (-115) (Lose 5-4)
Pitt(Armas) +144 over Hou(Rodriguez)---------------Armas is coming off 2 bad starts.....kinda think he could be good against Astros but, statistically, he hasnt earned any credit this year. Pirates hitting .270 vs lhp's and they've been hitting well in general. They hit Wandy a little bit last meeting. Wandy goes 5inn here, then Astros terrible bullpen takes over, then the game goes OVER (Lose 5-4)

SF(Lincecum) -1.5 (+150) over Mil(Bush)-----------Lincecum is dominating and shut down Brewers recently. If the Brewers score 0 or 1(and they MIGHT score that low), this bet should win easy. Bush is hittable, Lincecum is not, and Giants have scored 17 runs over their last 2 games(Lose 5-4.....Pedro Fucking Feliz, not 1 but 2 goddamn errors and the run that lost this bet: unearned. I cant believe this shit.)

Saturday, August 25, 2007

TAMPA(Kazmir) -120 over Oak(Blanton) (Win 14-3)
PHILLIES(Lohse) -127 over SD(Hensley) (Lose 4-3.....unfucking believable, Phillies got more hits, took more walks, committed fewer errors, Lohse pitched a masterful 4-hitter and the Phillies still lose)
DET(Bonderman) +1.5 (-120) over Nyy(Wang) (Lose 7-2)
TOR(Marcum) +125 over Laa(Saunders) (Win 9-2.....Blue Jays hit lhp's and Marcum's good)

Friday, August 24, 2007

Fla(Willis) vs Reds(Harang) UNDER 10 (-110)----------Reds have gone 9, 4, 8, 4, 7, 4, 8 runs per game over their last 7. And that's one of the reasons this o/u in 10(in a national league game that's a high number). But in this game they have a handicap. Much of the power and production in the Reds lineup lies in Griffey, Dunn, Hamilton and Hatteberg. They all bat left handed and cant bat right. Lhb's hit only .143 off Willis. Hatteberg, and perhaps Griffey, may sit out for Willis but still, it is a handicap. Batters hit .240 off Harang and he often pitches deep into games. Reds games DO go over a lot, but that's because they have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. But Harang should limit the bullpen's exposure to this game. Willis never shuts anybody out completely, but the Reds are a team he can do well against if he pitches well. (Win 5-3)

BALT(Guthrie) +153 (BCLI line -101) over Minn(Santana) (Lose 7-4)
Balt +1.5 (-105) over Minn (Lose 7-4)
Balt vs Minn UNDER 7.5(-115)------------I think there's an above average chance than Baltimore wins this game 2-1. In which case, all these bets would win. But if you consider that a home team is -120 to start off with, and you consider that Santana is 40 cents better(I think he's 30 cents better) than Guthrie, you have a line of -120/-130 for Minnesota considering the offenses are equal. They are not; the Orioles slug higher than the Twins and they hit for a higher average. So how do they get -163 for Minnesota?? Orioles hit .274 off lhp's (Lose 7-4.......This is the NINTH game the Orioles bullpen has lost for Guthrie after he pitched somewhere between good and perfect. Guthrie has pitched 4 games in which he pitched 8 innings or more and threw over 100 pitches. Tonight he threw only 93 PITCHES and only 6 2/3 innings. Why? Why take out Guthrie when the Orioles are AHEAD in the game? There can be only one reason: The worst pitching coach in baseball history, Leo Mazzone, actually has confidence in what will eventually be remembered as THE WORST BULLPEN IN THE HISTORY OF BASEBALL. Mazzone is a disgrace and needs to resign after sending every single pitcher in the bullpento A ball.

WASHINGTON(Hill) +135 (BCLI line +120) over Col(Francis)---------I dont know why Hill is so unhittable, but for his 63 innings this year, he has been. And he has no problems with walking people. Add to that the fact that Washington has averaged almost 7 runs per game over their last 4 games, and I think its worth to fade the saint. (Lose 6-5)

BCLI line (official line)

Phi--Moyer -146 (-109) (The Man--Maddux)
Mets---Perez -130 (-112) (BCLI)
Atl---Smoltz -130 (-142) (The Man)
AZ---Owings -105 (-117) (BCLI--Marshal)
Nyy--Clemens -120 (-143) (The Man)
TB--Shields -135 (-124) (BCLI)
Bos--Schilling -130 (-155) (The Man)

Thursday, August 23, 2007

HOUSTON(Gutierrez) -119 (BCLI line -127) over Wash(Lannan)------------before yesterday, it had been about two weeks since Astros got to face an lhp. That was Marshal, an excellent pitcher this year, and they torched him for 5 runs in 5 innnigs. Yesterday, (and i really almost took them) they faced Bacsik and got a respectable 7 hits and 3 runs off him. Lannan looks to be a middling lhp....Gutierrez looks to be making his first big league start. Bottom line: I want some of that Astros .277 vs lhp's. They should hit Lannan. (Lose 7-6)

PITT(Maholm) +125 (BCLI line Pitt -110) over Col(Morales)-----------Havent seen Morales throw, but he went 5 his first start vs the Dodgers. However, he is an lhp, Pirates hit much better (.271) vs lhp's, Maholm is pretty solid and has done a good job of keeping the bullpen in the pen, we saw how the Rockies went to sleep vs an lhp yesterday, Maholm is an lhp(tho not as good as Gorzelanny), and we also saw how the Pirates MURDERED Fogg yesterday. (Win 5-1)

FLORIDA(Vandenhurk) +163 (BCLI line +120) over Stl(Reyes)---------I'm aware that Vandenhurk's numbers are terrible, but he did shut down the Cardinals for 5 last meeting and he did pitch a 6 inning 1 hitter vs Atlanta before that. I've seen his fastball and it is good. For this much + I think its worth it to bet he can control it enough to win today. I'm also aware that rhb's hit only .219 vs Reyes and Florida has Hanley, Cabrera.....But its time for Florida to wake up and hook BCLI up with a big +. Reyes has pitched a few good games lately, but lets not forget May and June when he got ripped by the feeble A's and Nationals. I dont think he's good enough for this number against Florida (Win 11-3)

Cleve(Westbrook) vs Det(Robertson) OVER 10 (-115)-----------Indians hit .274 vs lhp's. Robertson did get 8 k's vs Cleve earlier, giving up 3 runs in 5inn, but on May 25th the Indians ripped him for 10 hits and 5 runs. He's very hittable this year. Westbrook has been doing well, but mostly against weak offenses. Tigers beat him July 4th( 10 hits 5 runs). And if the Indians get 7 off Verlander, as they did yesterday, their offense may be starting to get serious again. Zumaya really cant help the Tigers unless they're ahead in the 7th or 8th inning(and only then for about 1 inning max because Leyland is so stupid). Speaking of that, did you see how Leyland lost the game yesterday by letting Inge play and go 0 for 4? Yeah, he wont be playing today. This is a day game, and it will be wet, humid and soggy....... (Lose 3-1.......Inge played and went hitless again! I checked the stats and discovered that Inge is the 2nd worst position player in baseball who starts almost all the time. The worst is Nick Punto who hits .199 this year and slugs .258. Inge hits .238 this year and slugs .385. There's a story in The Sporting News about the Tigers and it says something about all of their hitters. Inge is, according to TSN "the most athletic player on the team" and "provides unusual power from the No. 9 spot". This is what I hate about so many articles on sports: Euphemisms. Inge is the 7th worst fielding 3rd baseman in baseball and the 2nd worst hitting 3rd baseman in baseball. He also has 127 strikeouts this year. I found 3 other players in baseball that have struck out more: Adam Dunn, Dan Uggla and Ryan Howard. These players slug .555, .474 and .560. THEY have 'unusual power'. That's why they're allowed to strikeout so much. Brandon Inge should NOT be allowed to strikeout so much at his position. He came up as a catcher, and hit .200 for his first THREE YEARS. That's somewhat acceptable because catcher is a skill position; 3rd base is NOT! Humidity was 64%, I'll remember that as HIGH and take it as being conducive to UNDER bets if the pitchers throw breaking balls---both Westbrook and Robertson do, and they both pitched completely excellent games. I'd like to bet the Tigers against Clemens, and other teams, but I cant keep being a fool with the ENORMOUS RISK that Leyland will be stupid and start Inge yet again)

BCLI line (official line)

Det---Robertson -134 (-110) (The Man---Westbrook)
Balt---Trachsel -120 (-104) (The Man---Bonser)
SF--Cain -109 (+117) (BCLI)
Oak--Gaudin -109 (-120) (The Man)
Tex---Loe -105 (+115) (The Man--Weaver)

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

DETROIT(Verlander) -145 (BCLI line -163) over Cleve(Byrd)------------Wow, Tigers finally got the message yesterday AND SAT INGE! Well, they still only got 3 hits. But against Byrd, it should be much easier. Am I worried about Cleveland's offense? Jesus, no, they got 1 hit by Jurrjens yesterday. Good chance Verlander blows them away like Edwin Jackson did. And with Zumaya back.......I think you have to go here. (Lose 11-8......Tigers get 8 for Verlander and lose....what a croc of steaming pile. Inge fucking played, AFTER I FUCKING TOLD LEYLAND not to let him. Went 0 for 4, of course)

PITT(Gorzelanny) +105 (BCLI line -105) over Col(Fogg)--------I see Col having a problem vs lhp's. Technically, they hit .277 vs lhp's(which of course is good) but they slug about 20 points less vs lhp's than against rhb's. This is because some of their less dangerous hitters hit well vs lhp's.....Hawpe can't hit lhp's at all (.194)......Atkins, who may be hurt, hits below .250 vs lhp's. And of course Helton bats left. Fogg has done some good, but i still cant respect him; rhb's hit .307 off him and Pitt bats right. Fogg did do well vs Pitt recently but Gorzelanny, who should have been an all star this year, is much better. (Win 11-2)

ANGELS(Lackey) -105 (BCLI line -130) over Nyy(Pettitte) (Lose 8-2)
Angels -1.5 (+180) over Nyy-------------------I was gonna ignore this game until i saw the line. -105? Ok, Angels hit .284 vs lhp's, they ripped Pettitte on July 16th and we all saw the colossal beatdown they put on the Yankees last night. -105? Lackey is going for redemption after bad start last time but he struck out 11 Yankees on July 7th, allowed only 1 run and didnt get the win. HAVE to go here again (Lose 8-2.....Pettitte gets respect, tho i fucking hate him)

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

ANGELS(Escobar) -125 (BCLI line -140) over Nyy(Mussina) (Win 18-9)
Angels -1.5(+160) over Nyy-------Escobar's numbers are great, but he has only faced 3 decent offenses(Det, Nyy, Cle). Oh, But those are like the only decent offenses in baseball, except Boston and Atlanta maybe. Anyway, Escobar can certainly shut a weak team down and he only allowed 1 run when he faced the Yankees. Mussina is WAY more hittable than Escobar and I like LAA against him because he throws a lot of strikes, doesnt walk people, and the Angels don't take many walks. So Mussina COULD get rocked and Escobar COULD shut down the Yanks. And price is pretty good (Win 18-9......And that's the essence of successful sports betting: TWO WAYS TO WIN(Mussina gets rocked or Escobar shuts em down). Get just one(Mussina getting rocked hard) and that's enough)

ROYALS(Nunez) +145 (BCLI line +115) over Cws(Vazquez) (Lose 5-2)
Royals vs Cws UNDER 9 (-120)-----------Weak offenses........Nunez doesnt pitch many innings per start(so far) but he has been very hard to hit. Royals offense has gone 3, 1, 9, 7 runs per game.......they can definitely win this with Nunez. Vazquez is usually good but he has faced KC twice and both times he gave up 4 runs. Under 9 already getting hit by wise guy action it looks like. (Win 5-2.....I saw this and my view of Nunez is that when he faces a team that knows how to take walks, like Boston, he will get murdered. His fastball moves, but he doesnt really know where its going. Take pitches against him, and you'll beat him)

Cleve(Carmona) vs Det(Jurrjens) UNDER 9.5 (+100)---------Don't like Tigers offense lately. They should have gotten a lot more than 1 against Pettitte.......only got 2 (on 10 hits) vs Clemens and then only 3 runs vs Wang. Brandon Inge is KILLING this team. Third base is supposed to be an offensive position where you can put some rock-handed power hitter, or Wade Boggs. Inge is hitting .244 at 3rd base and he plays every day! Carmona has done well vs the Tigers twice this year and altho Cleve may be the play here, I dont trust the Indians offense. Jurrjens only gave up 5 hits in 7inn vs them last start. (Win 2-1.....see that? Brandon Inge finally got benched for this game. I'm glad Leyland reads his BCLI)

Mil(Bush) vs Az(Hernandez) OVER 10 (-120)---------Az bats right and rhb's hit .335 off Bush. all batters hit .300 off Livan. Home plate ump should be Larry Vanover who has called 17 overs vs only 9 unders. Brewers offense may be waking up as they've gone 9, 6, 8 runs per game over their last 3. (Win 7-4)

SEATTLE(Washburn) +105 (BCLI line Sea -125) over Minn(Baker)-------Lhb's hit .300 off Baker and I'd like to see the Mariners stack their lineup with Vidro, Ichiro, Ibanez and Broussard so they can have 4 lhb's. Washburn faced Minn last start and allowed only 1 ER in 7inn but somehow took the loss. Baker has beaten me, no doubt. But the Twins have been so low scoring(their slugging is down to .392 while Seattle's is up to .425) that i just have to play this at this price. (Win 7-2)

Monday, August 20, 2007

WASHINGTON(Redding) +120 (BCLI line +100) over Hou(Jennings) (Win 7-0)
Wash vs Hou UNDER 9 (+100)-----------------Redding has never failed to pitch at least 5 inn per start and has only allowed as many as 4 runs one time. Jennings has been rocked by Nationals July 18th. Is Washington hitting? No. Is Houston hitting? No. So gotta take the under too. (Win 7-0)

BCLI is(after yesterday below) now 238-240
(-5.09units) for the baseball season

A terrible season so far with unspeakably horrid bad luck......I hate almost every single team for their non-performance when i bet on them. What team has not let BCLI down this year?

Sunday, August 19, 2007

BALT(Guthrie) +175 (BCLI line +114) over Tor(Halladay) (Lose 3-2)
Balt +1.5 (-130) over Tor---------------With Toronto averaging 3.15 runs per game over their last 6, I find this line outrageous. Halladay is not worth it. Batters hit .265 off him this year. Guthrie is harder to hit and does exceptionally well vs rhb's, which is where most of Tor's offense is. Guthrie is coming off two bad starts, but he has handled the Bluejays before. Orioles have gone 5, 2, 6, 12, 6 runs per game over their last 5.......much better than Toronto (Win 3-2......Dumbass J.R. House singled in the 10th for Balt then overran first base and got picked off. If that hadnt of happened, it would have been runners on 1st and 3rd only 1 out in the 10th)

FLORIDA(Willis) -126 (BCLI line -140) over Sf(Lowry) (Lose 6-5)
Fla vs SF UNDER 9 (+100)-------------I like Willis against SF. Lhb's only hit .143 off Willis.....SF only hits .239 vs lhp's....and i think the humidity will help Willis' curveball be even more unhittable. Bonds, Klesko, Roberts and Vizquel should be almost totally neutralized in this game. Lowry is good, but he usually doenst go more than 5 or 6 innings. Possibly a 0-0 game going to the 6th....Marlins do hit .281 off lhp's......maybe 2-0 marlins.......Willis allowed only 1 run in 7inn vs SF recently (Lose 6-5.......Absolutely the worst incompetence I have ever seen in baseball. Top of the 7th; soft grounder to Hanley Ramirez at SS; he boots it....runner on first; Klesko hits a ball into the dirt in front of home plate.....Jacobs steps in and it bounces over his head. Runners on 1st and 2nd no outs; Bunt.....Gardner throws wild to first....right fielder backs up the play....runner caught between first and second.....throw to 2nd; center fielder totally misses the throw which was a little low but catchable......two runs score and ORIGINAL BUNTER goes to third. A TRIPLE ON A FUCKING BUNT DUE TO FLORIDA'S PATHETIC ERRORS. If that hadnt happened, the score would have been Fla 5 SF 3 and both of these bets would have won. The bets were correct, I was correct that Bonds, Klesko, Roberts and Vizquel would be neutralized(they didnt even start) and I should have won. BULLSHIT)

Cin(Harang) vs Mil(Capuano) UNDER 9 (-105)--------Capuano is coming off 4 bad starts but before that he pitched 8 good innings against the Reds and didnt walk anyone. Reds hit only .245 vs lhp's. Batters hitting only .235 off Harang and he went 10 innings( T E N INNINGS) against the Brewers last meeting with them. Brewers have been throwing their season away for weeks now, largely by offensive failure. (Lose 7-6......bad bet, Capuano sucks)

DET(Bonderman) +174 (BCLI line +134) over Nyy(Wang)--------I don't care how many Tigers have the flu, +174 is too much for the Tigers to be dogged. Wang has just gotten hit by two weak teams and Detroit got 10 hits off Clemens yesterday (Lose 9-3....Tigers bullpen sucks)

BCLI line (official line)

Mets--Hernandez -110 (-131) (The Man)
Cleve---Sabathia -115 (-138) (BCLI--Shields)
Pitt---Snell -117 (-103) (BCLI)
Bos--Tavarez -130 (-120) (The Man--Saunders)
SD--Maddux -140 (-156) (The Man)
Oak--Dinardo -132 (-150) (The Man)

Saturday, August 18, 2007

ATL(Carlyle) -141 (BCLI line -189) over Az(Owings) (Lose 12-6)
Atl -1.5 (+150) over AZ-----------It is a mystery how Arizona has gotten so many wins with such a bad offense. Their bullpen ranks only 16th in ERA. They have one great starting pitcher......and Livan Hernandez, Doug Davis and Micah Owings, who is quite inconsistent and not very good. Yet the team is 70-53 with a team batting average of .249. The Braves average is up to .276 and they outslug AZ by 26 points. Carlyle is very good vs rhb's (.201) and besides the .240-hitting Stephen Drew, I can't think of one other Diamondback who doesnt bat right handed. (Lose 12-6.......this shit wasnt supposed to happen)

SF(Cain) -118 (BCLI line -130) over Fla(Vanden Hurk) (Win 4-3)
SF vs Fla UNDER 9.5 (-115)------------First of all, 9.5 for a national league game, with the Giants terrible offense and Florida getting only 1 hit off Zito yesterday after a slew of 4 run games and Cain, the best 4-13 pitcher in baseball? I think the o/u should be more like 8. However, the Giants may be building some offensive momentum; they scored 9 in their game against James(surprising) and they got 10 against Youman and the Pirates recently. Cain deserves to have a lot more than only 4 wins and is hard to hit. Vanden Hurk is unimpressive and SF has already hit him once. One of these bets has to win but probably both.(Win 4-3)

BCLI line (official line)

Phi--Moyer -105 (-116) (BCLI--Maholm)
SD---Germano -105 (+117) (The Man--Oswalt)
Tor--Litsch -129 (-151) (BCLI--Trachsel)
Nyy--Clemens -160 (-195) (The Man)

Friday, August 17, 2007

TORONTO(Burnett) -166 (BCLI line -175) over Balt(Olson) (Win 5-2)
TORONTO -1.5 (+125) over Balt----------------Perfect opportunity for Blue Jays offense to wake up. They've hit lhp's better all year and are still hitting .293 against them. Toronto bats right, and in Olson's 3 starts, rhb's are hitting .340 off him. Burnett has shut down Balt once already and has the ability to shut down almost any team on any given day. BlueJays' recent offensive weakness is a risk, but I think they're playable against Olson. (Win 5-2)

TEXAS(Gabbard) +130 (BCLI line Tex -120) over Minn(Silva)--------Silva has had 3 straight good starts but Texas rocked him may 21st. He is always hittable. Rangers offense is weak but Twins are just as weak or weaker. Batters hit about .220 off Gabbard and .280 off Silva (Lose 2-1.....what a waste of Gabbard's work. Rangers fucking suck)

Det(Robertson) vs Nyy(Pettitte) OVER 10 (-125)--------Probably the two best offenses in baseball........and Robertson, who has been bad this year. Pettitte, though, is just about as hittable (.295) and Tigers have hit better vs lhp's all season. This line is at, some books have it at 10.5 (-120). And with these questionable bullpens, yeah, if Verlander/Mussina went over, this one should go WAY over. (Lose 6-1....pathetic hitting by Tigers)

TAMPA(Jackson) +113 (BCLI line -105) over Cleve(Byrd)-----------Indians have gone 5, 2, 3, 2 runs per game their last 4 games. Their offense has ability, but they have been having plenty of low scoring games lately. Their average is down to .266 (from .273) and their slugging is down to .426 (from .440). And although Tampa has had a few bad offensive games lately, they are hitting and slugging exactly what Cleveland is(.266 .426). Jackson blew Cleveland away last time he saw them and has been doing very well. Tampa should get 8 hits off Byrd just by sticking the bat out there; he's very hittable.(Lose 2-1.....they got their 8 hits, and their 21 LOB. Fuck Tampa)

Thursday, August 16, 2007

KC(Nunez) +103 (BCLI line KC -144) over Tx(Rheinecker)----------Batters hitting .190 off Nunez...he's already shut down Texas once. Rheinecker has been both wild and hittable (Win 6-2)

STL(Wainwright) +105 (BCLI line Stl -120) over Mil(Bush)---------Wainwright and Stl offense are both going strong. Stl has averaged over 10 runs scored per game over their last 3 games and Wainwright has been pitching 7inn per game or more almost every start. Brewers offense on the decline......hitting only .262 now(11 points below Stl). And Bush......good control but very hittable (Win 8-0)

Laa(Escobar) vs Tor(Mcgowan) UNDER 9 (-125)-------------Mcgowan has had 5 straight good starts and Escobar is also very good. Either team could get shutout in this game. BlueJay offense has been very low-scoring lately and the Angels have only 2 runs in their last 2 games. (Win 4-3)

DET(Verlander) +135 (BCLI line -104) over Nyy(Mussina)----------Dont like this line. Yanks offense is just barely outhitting the Tigers and is slugging about 3 points higher than the Tigers. Is this difference worth 25 cents on the line? I don't think so. So is Mussina 25 cents better than Verlander? ABSOLUTLEY NOT. Opposing batters hit .290 off Mussina and .225 off Verlander. Mussina's ERA is a run higher than Verlander's. So if Verlander is clearly better than Mussina, is the Yankees bullpen making this line the way it is? The Tigers bullpen is questionable without Zumaya(tho Rodney is now back). But look at the Yankees: Rivera, the crown jewel of this pen, took a richly deserved loss last night with 3 earned runs given in 1 inning. And two games before that he blew the save. The middle game, the Orioles blew out Karstens and then got 5 earned runs against 6 innings of Yankee bullpen. Yanks should not be -145 in this game. (Win 8-5)

Yahoo has Nunez going for KC against Rheinecker for Texas but the sports books arent selling the bet yet, indicating that Rheinecker might not be pitching. If he is, I would want to bet Nunez because that would be a colossal pitching mismatch. KC--Nunez at -110 would be a great bet. -130 would be bettable.......oh, man. has Rheinecker at -116. That is sick. Nunez is dominating and Rheinecker is getting rocked......Im gonna need to stay up until they but that on the board.

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

AZ(Davis) +113 (BCLI line AZ -101) over Fla(Mitre)--------Davis is on fire......7 very good starts in a row, one of them against Fla. Mitre is getting worse; his ERA moved from 2.34 to 3.64 over the last 6 weeks. AZ ripped him July 24th and rhb's hit .305 against him. Marlins offense stepped out yesterday but before that they were at about 4 runs per game or fewer. (Win 9-6)

Lad(Penny) vs Hou(Jennings) UNDER 8 (-115)----------Dodgers simply cannot score right now. Jennings did well vs LA recently and Penny almost always shuts the other team down. (Lose 6-3)

METS(Maine) -1.5 (+110) over Pitt(Morris)-----------Morris has allowed 4 earned runs or more in all 7 of his last 7 starts while Maine, tho he did bad his last 2 starts, recently shut down the Pirates(Win 10-8)

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

METS(Hernandez) -130 (BCLI line -155) over Pitt(Snell)-----Snell seems to be weakening while Hernandez is going strong. Rhb's hit only .153 off El Duque. Mets offense has been very questionable for a long time. But they scored 10 in their last game and ripped Snell July 24th (Win 5-4)

DET(Bonderman) +135 (BCLI line -105) over Cleve(Sabathia) (Win 6-2)
Det vs Cleve OVER 9(-110)--------------Bonderman has had 3 bad starts. That's the only risk to betting Tigers here. So I'm taking the over too in case he fucks up again. Tigers are at .297 vs lhp's. They are a right hand hitting team outside of Casey and Granderson and rhb's hit well (.282) off Sabathia. Tigers have hit Sabathia well on July 5th and Sabathia throws a lot of strikes which will help the Tigers because they dont take many walks. Cleveland's scoring has been weak as they've scored over 4 runs in only 1 of their last 6 games. (Lose 6-2)

BCLI line (official line)

Bos--Lester -120 (-137) (The Man)
Nyy--Karstens -140 (-175) (BCLI--Cabrera)
Fla--Willis -120 (-134) (The Man)
Mil--Capuano -145 (-131) (The Man--Wells)
Tx--Millwood -107 (-135) (The Man)
Col--Francis -123 (+100) (The Man--Maddux)
Lad--Tomko -105 (-145) (BCLI--Albers)

Monday, August 13, 2007

BALT(Guthrie) +210 (BCLI line +145) over Nyy(Wang) (Lose 7-6)
Balt +1.5 (+100) over Nyy--------------An insane line. With the Yanks average up to .293 and slugging up to .468, I'd be willing to grant that their offense is 50 cents better than the Orioles'....and another 20 cents for being the home team. But Wang is NOT better than Guthrie this year. Batters hit around .263 off Wang but only .230 off Guthrie. Wang has faced Balt twice recently and gave up 9 hits each game over 6 innings(for a total of 18 hits in 12 innings). And Guthrie actually BEAT the Yankees on July 27th. Terrible line. (Win 7-6)

Lad(Billingsley) vs Hou(Oswalt) UNDER 7.5 (-110)----------Dodgers have scored a TOTAL of five runs in all of their last 5 games going 2, 1, 2, 0, 0. And if they couldnt hit Looper, Reyes and Wainwright, how are they gonna hit Oswalt? Billingsley also recently pitched a complete game vs Houston. (Win 4-1)

BCLI Line (official line)

Bos--Wakefield -126 (-167) (The Man)
Det---Durbin -170 (-135) (The Man--Gaudin)
Minn--Santana -105 (-121) (BCLI--Hernandez)

Sunday, August 12, 2007

BALT(Trachsel) +160 (BCLI line -101) over Bos(Schilling)------Schilling has allowed 28 hits in his last 15innings, and he's -170 on the road......nah, that's too much. Trachsel is far from my favorite pitcher but he did shutout the Red sox two starts ago for 6 innings (Win 6-3)

PITT(Gorzelanny) +101 (BCLI line -102) over Sf(Zito)------Pitt has gone 13, 8, 2, 6, 8 runs per game over their last 5. They've got their average against lhp's up to .270. Their slugging percentage is 14 points higher than the Giants'. And Gorzelanny, almost an all-star this year, is clearly better than Zito(Win 5-0)

Saturday, August 11, 2007

TAMPA(Jackson) +102 (BCLI line Tampa -120) over Tx(Rheinecker)-----------Jackson is doing a lot better. He beat the Yankees, should have beaten Detroit, should have gotten the win while shutting down Cleveland and then ALLOWED ZERO EARNED RUNS AGAINST TORONTO AND TOOK THE LOSS! Tampa knows they owe this guy a win...Rheinecker hasnt gotten anyone out.....and tampa has scored a respectable 25 runs over their last 4 games (Win 3-0....thank god they let him finish the game)

BCLI line (official line)

Hou--Rodriguez -105 (-125) (BCLI--Suppan)
Met--Glavine -175 (-165) (The Man--Olsen)
Cubs---Hill -120 (-104) (The Man--Fogg)
AZ----Webb -180 (-230) (The Man)
Det--Verlander -148 (-124) (BCLI)
Tor--Mcgowan -108 (-118) (BCLI--Nunez)

Friday, August 10, 2007

DET(Tata) -125 (BCLI line -180) over Oak(Blanton)-----------Tigers have hit Blanton once recently......Blanton has sucked recently......A's offense sux......this number is too far off. Tata is ok (Lose 16-10........serious fucking bullpen problems for the Tigers. When the fuck does Oakland score 16 runs in a game??)

CLEVE(Carmona) -120 (BCLI line -150) over Nyy(Hughes)----------Carmona too consistent all year to ignore at -120.....Hughes is questionable (Lose 6-1....Wrong, the Indians offense is fucking questionable, and I fucking KNEW that. Damn)

Mil(Bush) vs Hou(Jennings) OVER 9.5 (-120)-----------Jennings has been unreliable......good opportunity for Brewers to break out offensively......i think they can hit his low shit. Bush is always beatable. Rhb's hit .326 off him and Astros have plenty of right handed bats(Lose 5-4.....40 left on base in an 11 inning game)

Thursday, August 09, 2007

AZ(Davis) -140 (BCLI line -160) over Pitt(Snell) (Win 4-2)
AZ -1.5 (+155) over Pitt------------------Snell is devolving and AZ has hit him. Davis is improving and has allowed only 16 hits in his last 27 innings (Win 4-2)

BCLI line (official line)

Balt--Cabrera -147 (-131) (The Man--Ramirez)
Phi--Kendrick -135 (-146) (BCLI--Mitre)
SD--Young -146 (-180) (BCLI--Pineiro)

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

CUBS(Zambrano) -103 (BCLI line +100) over Hou(Oswalt)---------Zambrano has really been gunnin'. check his numbers. And he has shut down the Astros recently. Oswalt is good, but he's been hit by the Cubs recently. Soriano is out for Cubs but I still like Zambrano here. (Lose 8-2)

AZ(Kim) vs Pitt(Maholm) UNDER 9.5 (-120)---------Kim is very good vs rhb's and with Sanchez, Nady, Bautista and Bay, I think the bulk of Pitt's offense is right handed. Playing AZ just to win might be a good play too, but I think with AZ hitting only .236 vs lhp's and Maholm being at least consistent, if not good, and both offenses being sub-par, the under is a better play (Lose 10-6....yeah, AZ was the play)

OAK(Dinardo) +100 (BCLI line Oak -130) over Tx(Millwood)------Millwood struggling, Dinardo doing very well with a recent shutdown of the Rangers. Pitching matchup and price makes this playable.....Oakland offense always a risk of not scoring. (Win 6-3)

BCLI line (official line)

Balt--Guthrie -140 (-104) (The Man--Hernandez)
Phi---Lohse -118 (-130) (The Man)
Det--Durbin -144 (-133) (The Man--Shields)
Lad--Billingsley -109 (+108) (The Man--Harang)
Mets--Hernandez -120 (-105) (BCLI)
Nyy---Wang -140 (-117) (The Man--Halladay)
Cleve---Sabathia -127 (-141) (BCLI--Garland)

Tuesday, August 07, 2007

*TEXAS(Gabbard) -110 (BCLI line -165) over Oak(Gaudin) (Win 8-6)
Tex vs Oak UNDER 10 (-120)-------------Both offenses are bad, but Oakland really sucks. I like Gabbard and everybody on Texas knows that they owe him a win in this game after their pathetic effort last time he pitched. Gaudin has been deteriorating and the Rangers hit him recently. (Lose 8-6)

KC(Bannister) -108 (BCLI line -130) over Minn(Bonser) (Win 5-1)
KC -1.5 (+180) over Minn-------------------Twins often win lately, but they dont score even when they do. And Bannister is too much of a lock to do well going against such a low scoring team.....He does very well against everybody (Win 5-1)

BOS(Wakefield) +106 (BCLI line Bos -115) over Laa(Saunders)-----------Angels take very few walks(implying they swing at too many bad pitches) and swinging at bad pitches is NOT gonna help you against a knuckleballer. Wakefield has done well vs Angels earlier this year (Lose 10-4)

BCLI line (official line)

Phi---Moyer -150 (-166) (The Man)
Det---Robertson -160 (-182) (The Man)
Nyy---Clemens -168 (-143) (BCLI)
Hou---Williams -105 (+106) (BCLI)
Col---Hirsh -140 (-120) (BCLI)
AZ---Owings -109 (-131) (Pitching change to Gorzelanny)
SF---Zito -135 (-146) (BCLI--Bacsik)

Monday, August 06, 2007

TAMPA(Jackson) +230 (BCLI line +163) over Det(Verlander) (Lose 6-4)
Tampa +1.5 (+120) over Det-----------Tigers get swept by the Whitesox?? yeah, that shit happened. Jackson has pitched a few good games recently, shutting down the Yankees and the Indians recently. 96mph fastball. Tigers condition now is that THEY ARE LOSERS. You can take this number (Lose 6-4......This is the shit that makes people want to just bet on football. Tampa had this game won until Gary Glover came in in the 7th and gave up like 5 straight hits and 4 runs. And the moronic manager Joe Maddon just fucking sat there and let it happen! Glover and Maddon, you are pathetic disgraces to the game. I can't believe this shit. And even after that, there was a fly ball with bases loaded and Carl Crawford just stepped away from it and let it drop thinking that the centerfielder would get it......Upton wasnt even close to the ball. If that hadnt of happened, I would have at least cashed with the +1.5)

STL(Looper) -130 (BCLI line -135) over SD(Wells) (Win 10-5)
Stl -1.5 (+160) over Sd--------------------------------------Wells is old and he's gotta be tired. He's coming off 3 horrible starts and its currently 96 degrees in Saint Louis. His fat ass will be laboring in that heat, and I dont think he'll pitch more than 4 innings (Win 10-5.....and if they'd have pulled Wells AFTER JUST 4 innings like I said, Sd might have won this game)

SF(Lincecum) vs Wash(Lannan) UNDER 8 (-120)------------Lincecum has pitched 7 straight dominating games. Giants' offense is a joke. Wash is hot as hell right now but good pitching should slow them down here.(Win 3-2)

Sunday, August 05, 2007

Houston(Albers) vs Fla(Olsen) OVER 9.5(-120)-------Houston hits lhp's.....both pitchers suck this year (Win 6-5)

DET(Tata) -1.5 (-105) over Cws(Floyd)----------Floyd has been hit by Tigers recently and.......he's been hit by other teams too. His numbers are terrible. Tata has only had one start but it was good. Det sucking now, but they should win this (Lose 3-1.....Tigers are a fucking joke now)

CLEVE(Carmona) -119 (BCLI line -144) over Minn(Baker)------- ummmm, -119? someone must be hurt on the Indians. Cleve has the better offense and the better pitcher. My gut tells me its time for Baker to get ripped. (Lose cannot be serious! Baker shuts out the Indians.....but as I always say, the Indians are overrated....I guess by me on this game)

BCLI line (official line)

Atl---James -146 (-131) (BCLI)
Fla---Olsen -105 (-133) (The Man)
Stl--Wainwright -108 (-121) (BCLI--Chico)
Mil--Suppan -113 (-123) (BCLI--Eaton)
Cubs--Marquis -125 (-108) (The Man--Glavine)
Nyy--Mussina -174 (-220) (The Man)
Balt--Bedard -124 (-150) (The Man)
Oak--Haren -114 (-102) (The Man--Lackey)

Saturday, August 04, 2007

LAD(Lowe) -1.5 (+120) over Az(Hernandez) (Lose 8-7)
METS(Maine) -102 over Cubs(Lilly) (Lose 6-2)
WASH(Hanrahan) -111 over Stl(Pineiro) (Win 12-1)
Wash -1.5 (+170) over Stl (Win 12-1)

Friday, August 03, 2007

*HOU(Oswalt) -106 (BCLI line -115) over Fla(Willis)------Houston hits .278 vs lhp's(much better than against rhp's) and, after taking out JoJo Reyes (a lhp) last night, they've scored at least 4 runs against 3 of the last 3 lhp's they've faced and 7 runs against 2 of those 3. Astros are a right handed team, especially after picking up Wigginton, and their best hitters, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence, bat right and are bloody murder on lhp's. Rhb's hit .328 off Willis who has been inferior to his former self this year. (Win 8-2)

WASH(Redding) -108 (BCLI line -140) over Stl(Wells) (Win 3-2)
Wash -1.5 (+180) over Stl--------------This Nationals team is hot, having scored 6 runs or more in 5 of their last 7 games. Redding has done well against every team he has faced(and most were either better or just as good as Stl) and has a 2.64 ERA. Wells is, of course, all over the place, very inconsistent, walks people and is hittable. The shit St Louis has pulled the last 2 days is sickening. They've quit and they know they have no chance for the wild card. So why try? (Lose 3-2.......Motherfucker Ryan Church takes a 3-2 slider right down the middle with the baseloaded to strike out leading to FIVE FUCKING LOB night. Later, this bitch grounds into a double play. What a loser)

LAD(Billingsley) -143 (BCLI line -160) over AZ(Davis)-------Rhb's hit only .197 vs Billingsley and AZ bats right. Dodgers hit very well (.286) vs lhp's and batters hit .275 off Davis. (Lose 1-0......What a croc of steaming shit. A near perfect start by Billingsley totally fucking wasted because Nomar and company cant hit Doug fucking Davis??!! Utterly sick. I've never seen a more pathetic offensive effort in the history of baseball.)

ATL(Smoltz) -158 (BCLI line -164) over Col(Francis)-----------Braves have not 1 2 or 3 but FOUR consecutive games of double digits scoring for a total of 49 runs scored in their last 4 games. Smoltz, even at his advanced age, can shut a team down on any given day. Francis is much more hittable than his W-L record would indicate and the Braves got 11 hits off him in 5innings earlier in the season. (Lose 9-2......When the fuck does John Smoltz ever give up 7 runs? In 21 starts he's only give up 5 or more earned runs against the Tigers and Mets.....and now the Rockies.)

DET(Miller) -139 (BCLI line -170) over Cws(Buehrle)----------Miller was rocked by Cws while Buehrle was rocked for 14 hits, 7 runs in 6 innings by Detroit on July 23rd. Its not anomalous for Detroit to rock a lhp. But it is for Cws to hit one, considering they hit only .241 vs lhp's overall this year. I still remember what Miller did to Boston so I still like him. Tigers should win this with ease. (Lose 7-4)

BOS(Lester) -110 (BCLI line -139) over Sea(Ramirez)----------Ramirez is highly rockable and Boston already has rocked him.......Lester looking ok to play(Lose 7-4...Mike Timlin you goddam losing piece of human garbage. Get the fuck out of baseball. Red Sox rock Ramirez right on schedule and then lose the battle of the bullpens.....when their own bullpen is currently the #1 bullpen in baseball....thanks to Mike Fuckhead Timlin. Just get out Mike. You suck.)

Thursday, August 02, 2007

TEXAS(Gabbard) +168 (BCLI line +135) over Cleve(Westbrook)--------------Despite the fact that Gabbard gave up 5 earned runs vs Cleveland in 4 innings last start(he only gave up 4 hits), he has proven himself to me by shutting down the Tigers. I dont really know right now why Boston got rid of him. With the Rangers coming off 2 wins over Cleveland, they certainly have the confidence to win this game. Westbrook is highly beatable, the Indians, I believe are overrated and this price is very good. (Lose 5-0......Fine performance by Gabbard....Rangers offense just absolutely be shutout by Westbrook. That is an embarrassment.)

STL(Reyes) -112 (BCLI line -127) over Pitt(Youman)---------------Despite what happened yesterday, I think you can play the Cardinals here. Rhb's hit .326 off Youman.....and Stl's best hitter bat right. Stl is batting .270 overall against Pitt's .253. Reyes is coming off 2 great starts during which he only allowed, like, 4 hits in all. And Reyes is very good (.231) against rhb's and Doumit is the only lhb on Pitt hitting above .258. (Lose 5-4......Reyes does fine....Stl out hits then 9-8 and.........reigning world series MVP(what a joke) David Eckstein makes the game losing error. FUCK saint LouSHIT)

CUBS(Marshall) -138 (BCLI line -155) over Phi(Lohse)-----------Marshall is probably the best 5-4 pitcher in baseball and Lohse allows batters to hit .280 off him. Lohse is extremely erratic. The only thing consistent about him is that he's not out there to walk people and everyone knows it. And the Cubs don't mind that because they swing away and dont take walks. Lohse did pitch 14 innings vs the Cubs in April and only allowed 2 runs. THIS IS A RISK TO GO AGAINST THAT. But I don't see how Lohse can be getting ripped by the likes of Oakland, Seattle and Washington and then come into Chicago and beat Marshall. (Lose 10-6.......Marshall gets rocked?! Why is this shit happening to me? unbelievable)

AZ(Petit) +195 over SD(Peavy) (Lose 11-0)
Az +1.5 (-120) over SD----------------Petit is getting the job done and the Padres offense is way too weak to be this big a favorite over anyone. I would like to see more lhb's than AZ has in a lineup that I'm betting against Peavy but the fact that AZ got 10 hits off Peavy in 5 innings in April.........that's enough for me with Petit and this price.(Lose 11-0)

Wednesday, August 01, 2007

*Det(Robertson) vs Oak(Braden) OVER 9.5(-120)----------Braden can sometimes do good, but rhb's hit .325 off him and the Tigers have......Sheffield, Ordonez.....Polanco, Guillen is a switch hitter, Thames, Monroe, Inge. They're a fairly right handed team outside of Granderson and Casey. The A's offense does suck, but with the type of year (bad) that Robertson has had, I dont see Oakland getting shutdown. And then there is the Tigers' bullpen issue(it sucks without Zumaya). And this is a day game......i like this play. (Lose 3-2......37 LEFT ON BASE in this game. That is sick. Lets just think about what 37 LOB means: 4 runners left on base without scoring EVERY SINGLE INNING OF THE GAME. That's the average. And there were about 3 hits that I saw that were less than 15 from being home runs but went just foul. A disgusting misfortune altogether. However, you have to give Braden a lot of credit. Look to bet that guy under)

ATL(Carlyle) -143 (BCLI line -167) over Hou(Rodriguez)--------Braves scoring double digits the last 2 games.......Carlyle doing very well vs rhb's(.186) and Astros are right handed.......I can definitely pay this price. Astros suck, but I've been saying that all year (Win 12-3)

SF(Lincecum) -102 (BCLI line -110) over Lad(Hendrickson) (Lose 6-4)
Sf vs Lad UNDER 8(-110)----------------------Lincecum is rolling right now and Giants offense is poor. Hendrickson is definitely a beatable pitcher but the Giants often just dont hit when they should. The SHOULD in this game but im splitting my bet onto the under too in case they dont. (Lose 6-4.....Lincecum allows 2 hits and 1 earned run in 6 innings! That's what i was betting on. So why the FUCK didnt i win?! Oh, yeah, the Giants bullpen allowed 4 FUCKING EARNED RUNS in only TWO innings of work. Absolutely fucking disgusting)

FLORIDA(Kim) -112 (BCLI line -140) over Col(Fogg)-----------Kim can probably do good for 5 like he did last start. Rockies are largely right handed after Helton and Hawpe and Kim is good vs rhb's (.180). Rockies recent offensive strength is a risk, but I think Florida knows they have to get this one done against Fogg, a weak pitcher. Not a great play, but price is right. (Win 4-3)

BCLI line (official line)

Cin--Arroyo -140 (-121) (The Man--Lannan)
Cubs--Hill -154 (-139) (BCLI)
SD---Wells -110 (-125) (BCLI--Owings)
TB--Hammel -107 (+114) (BCLI)
Minn---Bonser -105 (-135) (BCLI--Bannister)
Sea---Hernandez -105 (-125) (The Man)