Saturday, September 30, 2006

"Ring, bells, aloud; burn, bonfires, clear and bright,
To entertain great England's lawful king.
Ah! sancta majestas,, who would not buy thee dear?
Let them obey that know not how to rule;
This hand was made to handle nought but gold."

Henry VI, Part 2

What? you want something? 7-1 with 3 dogs.......what more do you want? I, for one, am tired and will sleep for a long time.....if you've got a pick, post it in the comments; i've got money to burn.
Ok, here's my only bet:

Ohio state -1 teased with Michigan State -20(-110)-------i usually check out the free picks on the bottom of There's two sites there and their picks, by my count, have done pretty well. It looks like it might be a ****NJ73 type of day: they like a lot of road teams(mostly favorites) to cover. The Ohio State game...well, the line looks suspiciously low. I watched OSU kill Texas IN texas and i was impressed. Osu has not failed to cover a line yet and Iowa has not covered a line yet. And Iowa, of course, hasnt played anyone near the caliber of who OSU has faced. I realize, from experience, that this type of thinking isnt profitable over the long term(Iowa IS at home), but it does work sometimes. MSU should be mad. They have skills and im sure they've done whatever they could to improve on defense. Illinois sux. They got shutout by RUTGERS! (yeah, i know, Rutgers is kinda good this year). MSU needs to run it up to distract from their own stupidity from last week(jeez, just run the ball to run the was clear to ME that Notre Dame couldnt stop the run). And Iowa cant be very good as they actually let Illinois score once on them whereas RUTGERS, Rutgers shut Illinois out.

Seriously, to all BCLI supporters and fans and haters, I am so honored to have had the opportunity to share my experience and expertise with you, to have, yesterday, when the BCLI site received a record number of hits, helped you pulverize your market makers with a 7-1 biturric beatdown worthy of Bin Laden himself. It feels so great to be able to give back, a la Bill Gates or Warren Buffett or George Soros, some of the wealth of strategic information and technical handicapping knowledge that I have accumulated over the years. I'd like to thank a true student of BCLI, a red-star trader on Tradesports called 'moon'-something, who brought the South Florida-Rutgers game to my attention. yes, SF was a home dog akin to BCLI's legendary New Orleans +4.5 lock at home vs Atlanta. I am honored to have had the opportunity to have taught this young red-star a key football betting strategy. SF covered! But i lost because i took the money line. And to the hater who says I "pad the results", I'd like to reach out to him in this time of joy and mirth and just say, "I do not pad the fucking results, bytch." Lines i look at are at and Betus overvalues the favorites and gives good deals on underdogs. Nine is where i usually get the lines i post. They differ and change through time a bit, but next year i will be documented at, so it wont be an issue.
Now, since the air is actually getting quite thin here at the Everestine pinnacle of baseball handicapping, I must retire for a turn since BCLI is such stuff as dreams are made on; and our enormously profitable life is rounded with a sleep.....

Friday, September 29, 2006


Recap: ok, i havent added up my numbers for a while because i was pressed for time with a poker bonus. Since September 22nd, BCLI plays have gone like this: 0-2 -2.52units, 1-1 -.42units, 0-2 -2units, 4-0 +4.8units, 0-3 -3units, 5-1 +5.55units. All that equals 10-9 +2.41units. So added to where i was, 53-44 +12.01units.....
BCLI plays are now at 63-53 +14.42units
BCLI line plays on all games went 20-30 -9.32units bringing total to 144-163 -20.21units
BCLI starred baseball plays moved to 10-6 +3.8units
football plays moved to 3-2 while starred football plays moved to 1-0

There was a comment that i didnt see until now. A reader keeping close track of BCLI's sterling record thought i had given myself an extra unit of profit. But i had taken Milwaukee AND the under on the same game, and they both won. The commenter didnt see that. Like today, I am taking the Mets and the Under in the same writeup

*LADodgers -116(BCLI line -146) over SF------Dodgers offense exploded during last 3 games in Colorado scoring 36 runs in 3 games. Dodgers have hit about .300 this year vs lhp and Lowry is one. Lowry is coming off 4 terrible starts in which he got murdered; every time. 1 or 2 bad starts.....maybe you rebound, but 4....there's something wrong with you. Ive been wondering all year why line makers consistently value Lowry higher than i do. He's not that big and doesnt strike too many people out. The last time he faced the Dodgers, he did well. Today they will get their revenge. Opposing batters hit .230 off Kuo and SF hasnt seen him yet.

Cleveland -141(BCLI line -226) over TB-----Ok, Stokes beat the Yankees....but he's still been extremely hittable and he walks 1 every 2 innings. Both pitchers have sucked. But is the Indians offense only 20 cents better than Tampa??? ok, tampa put up 11 runs in 2 recent games recently and Cleveland's slugger Grady whatshisname is out. But still, the Indians have scored more runs than everyone but the whitesox and Yankees and Tampa has scored FEWER runs than every other team. -141 is just too far wrong(in fact, lets see if it changed...nope)

Mets -128(BCLI line -170) over Wash and UNDER 9(-118)-----Armas has recently shut down the Mets, so Mets will be going for revenge. Maine is very hard to hit and Mets, though recently weak, are clearly a better offense. If Mets down hit, the under should hit.

AZ +122(BCLI line AZ -107) over SD------perfect double revenge situation as Hernandez was recently hit by sd and Hensley recently shut down AZ

Atl +119(BCLI line Atl -148) over Houston-----James coming off 2 bad starts but he is good enough to rebound. Houston is on a winning streak but the Braves have scored about 100 more runs this year they the Astros have. Astros slightly better vs lhp's (.266) but James is just as hard to hit as Clemens, who has only been pitching about 5 innings per start lately.

KC +210(BCLI line +220) over Detroit------Double revenge. Hernandez' very last start he got rocked by the Tigers and lasted less than 2 innings. He'll want to do better. And Royals offense was shutdown by Ledezma recently so they'll want revenge. Hernandez does suck, but he has pitched a complete game shutout against Toronto. Ledezma doesnt pitch deep into games.


Milwaukee +130(BCLI line +111) over Stl------at BETUS.COM i see this has moved to +130 and well, i know ive got a lot of plays today, but you have Capuano, a pitcher who usually does well, coming off a markedly bad start; he wants to redeem himself. And you have Weaver, a pitcher having a bad year, who has recently done well vs Brewers; they'll want revenge against him. And you have the Cardinals, losing like crazy, looking like a deer caught in the headlights a la the Yankees against the Redsox in the playoffs, knowing that if they dont win that division, they'll not be in the post season. Its very hard to play with that kind of pressure. For the Brewers, a team that has put up double digits in a couple games recently, working off the frustrations of being VERY weak offensively this year, it will be very EASY to play knowing that they are not the ones watching their season slip away. Believe me, I've been in this situation as a pitcher myself: The Cardinals will be playing scared.

Lines: Cubs -190(BCLI line -150)
Cin +100(BCLI line -109)
Philly -150(BCLI line -176)
Bos +103(BCLI line Bos -117)
Nyy -180(BCLI line -204)
Minn -120(BCLI line -118)
Tx -138(BCLI line -113)

Wednesday, September 27, 2006


Florida -170(BCLI line -218) over cincinatti-----Reds: only 57 runs over last 3 weeks against 85 for Florida. Reds have been VERY weak offensively. Sanchez is very hard to hit and Michalak appears to be easy to hit.

Houston vs Pitt UNDER 9(-105)---------Hirsh is coming off a bad start and Chacon is going for revenge against the astros after being hit by them. Pitt's offensive weakness cost me yesterday, today that offensive weakness should put this game under

Atl +100(BCLI line +102) over mets------Mets only 73 runs over last 3 weeks whereas Atl has scored 88. Hudson is coming off a bad start; he'll be motivated. Questions still surrounding Martinez......

Tor +160(BCLI line +109) over Detroit-------Detroit has scored about 16 more runs this year than Toronto, and over the last 3 weeks, detroit has outscored toronto 104 to 76. Detroit should be favored, but not by this much. Blue Jays have been one of the best teams vs lhp's this year while Tigers have been slightly weaker against lhp's then against rhp's. Lilly and Robertson are about equal.

KC +200(BCLI line +177) over minnesota and OVER 9.5(+100)-----I dont think Silva is a -220 type of pitcher. opposing batters hit at least .300 off him. He throws a lot of strikes and KC doesnt take more than 1 walk every 11 at bats(this is poor). I would not be surprised if KC jumped out to an early lead. Redman is inconsistent and its hard to predict how he'll do. He did pitch a complete game shutout against the Twins recently and minnesota should be out for revenge. However, Redman is coming off a bad start and should be motivated to redeem himself.

Lines: Hou -137(BCLI line -110)
Phi -185(BCLI line -210)
Cubs -114(BCLI line -133)
SD-115(BCLI line -107)
Col +112(BCLI line Col -124)
NYY -220(BCLI line -185)
Bos -230(BCLI line -240)
Cleve -118(BCLI line -102)
LAA -150(BCLI line -135)
Sea -190(BCLI line -152)

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

5-0 BCLI SWEEPS! ! !

A legendary, phenomenal and incendiary day and yes, here at BCLI, it still smells of sulfur. BCLI-haters are incensed, but BCLI is hotter. Gotta get some sleep after that gargantuan beat-down of my market makers and i may not get back to post plays but im probably gonna take at least Snell and Jennings and maybe KC. I'll add up my numbers later.

Colorado +104(BCLI line Col -150)over LAD----Rockies 139 runs over last 3-4 weeks versus Dodgers 79. Colorado just too hot offensively to ignore. Jennings gave up 5 ER in 6 innings vs LAD last time so he'll be going for revenge

Pitt +135(BCLI line +105) over Houston-----pitt has been the 2nd weakest team offensively in baseball over the last 4 weeks but they do hit .290 vs lhp's. altho Houston has been winning, they've only scored about 80 runs(vs pitt's 69) over the last 4 weeks and they've only outscored Pitt by 31 runs over the entire year. Pettitte is perenially overvalued(he's about 300th on the list of most profitable pitchers) while Snell is quite good this year, being effective vs rhb's.

KC +340(BCLI line +250) over Minn-----Twins have clinched so they dont need it. Santana is great but are Perez and the Royals offense really that bad? price is too attractive, i have to take a little of this

Lines: Phi -173(BCLI line -180)
Hou -134(BCLI line -115)
Fla -185(BCLI line -178)
Atl -150(BCLI line -138)
Mil -113(BCLI line -114)
Stl -168(BCLI line -191)
Col +113(BCLI line Col -160)
Az -123(BCLI line -123)
Cleve -140(BCLI line -110)
Det -205(BCLI line -169)
Bos -200(BCLI line -213)
Nyy -220(BCLI line -236)
Minn -350(BCLI line -270)
Sea +134(BCLI line tx -116)
Tex +135(BCLI line TX -112)

Monday, September 25, 2006


Football play:

*New Orleans Saints +4.5 over Atlanta-----classic Monday Night home team play. Everybody and their retarded idiot brother is on the Falcons. Atlanta has scored only 34 points this year and there is NO evidence that they are any good. New Orleans, on the other hand, has pulled off road wins AT Cleveland and AT Green Bay. The Saints are such a lock here its not even funny. Take some money line too

*Washington +155(BCLI line +117) over Mets-----Washington has scored 91 runs in the last 3-4 weeks while the Mets have only scored 73 over that time period. Washington has hit better vs lhp's all year. Glavine went 6 inn 7 H 2 ER 1BB 7K vs washington the last time he faced them and they should do better this time. Beltran Perez pitched a 6 inning 1 hitter last start.....who knows, he could be great

CWS vs Cleve OVER 10(+100)---------both pitchers shut down these offenses over 6 innings in their last meeting. I expect extreme offensive revenge from these teams at the end of frustrating seasons during which they both scored more runs than anybody but the Yankees yet neither will make the playoffs.

Seattle +125(BCLI line +104) over Oakland and OVER 9.5(+100)-------Loaiza has walked only 1 batter every 9 innings over his last 70 innings. Seattle is the least walkingest team in baseball, yet, over the last 4 weeks, they've scored more than anybody. Cathartic redemption for a season of offensive weakness here, as Mariners rip every strike Loaiza throws.

Lines: SF -165(BCLI line -164)
Cleve +105(BCLI line cleve -112)
Tor -123(BCLI line -113)
Nyy -152(BCLI line -247)
Minn -220(BCLI line -188)
LAA -138(BCLI line -115)
Philly -160(BCLI line -195)

Sunday, September 24, 2006


Florida +145(BCLI line +119) over phillies------Moyer not walking anybody, Florida not taking walks. philly outscoring marlins over last 3 weeks, but only slightly. Olsen is hard to hit and phillies are weaker vs lhp's.

Mil SF UNDER 8(-110)-----Cain and Sheets are both coming off subpar starts and have rebound motivation. If Brewers hadnt put up 30 runs in the last 3 days, this o/u number would be 7. Either of these pitchers could shut the other offense down completely.

Seattle +190(BCLI line +150)------Garcia coming off two 8 inning 1 hitters, but 3 weeks ago he was actually pretty bad. Mariners might hit because in the last 10 days, though they've gotten to face some average pitchers including the worst bullpen of all time(royals), they've scored a phenomenal 69 runs. White sox have been ice cold only scoring about 27 in the last 10 days.

Saturday, September 23, 2006


*Colorado -144(BCLI line -180) over Atl-------Braves weaker vs lhp(.257) all year. opposing batters hitting in the .240's off Francis and in the .300's off Davies. Rockies are scoring really well right now. they beat me last night and i see no reason they cant beat Davies

*Balt -142(BCLI line -163) over Minn-----Baltimore does not take walks and Baker doesnt walk people. Should have took Orioles last night based on this principle as Silva is the same kind of pitcher but I didnt trust Cabrera. Bedard is a very good, consistent pitcher while Baker is quite hittable.

Stl +160(BCLI line +127) over Houston-------Oswalt went 8 inn 7 h 1 ER vs stl last meeting and Cardinals should do better against him this time. he's not that hard to hit, he just doesnt walk people. rhb's are hitting only .247 against Reyes

Lines: LAD -170(BCLI line -180)
Cubs -139(BCLI line -155)
Mil -140(BCLI line -140)
SD -200(BCLI line -173)
Oak -111(BCLI line LAA -110)
Det -175(BCLI line -160)

Friday, September 22, 2006


BCLI line plays on all games where there is a 10 cent or more difference between BCLI line and official line moved down to 124-133 -10.89units

Mets -137(BCLI line -190) over Washington-----True, mets dont need to win and Mets have not been scoring well recently. However, mets have had to face Florida's great pitchers in 2 series' recently and 2 lhp's on Pittsburgh and 2 lhp's on LA. Mets are weak vs lhp's. Astacio is not a lhp and right handed batters are hitting .339 off him while rhb's are hitting only .201 off Orlando Hernandez. Washington did blast Chuck James, a good lhp, but hitting lhp's is their specialty. Hernandez is not a lhp. Also, I like to take home teams on Friday night. This pitching matchup......with this price for the home team.....gotta play it.

Atl -115(BCLI line -176) over Col-------the only reason i can think of for this line being so wrong is that in the last 16 days, Rockies have scored 98 runs and the Braves only 67. Yes, the Rockies are hitting, but the Braves are not doing badly offensively. Hudson has pitched a 9 inning 1 hitter vs Colorado this year, tho not recently. The real reason for this bet is Fogg. My god, this guy is terrible. 47 earned runs in his last 46 innings pitched! so you're going against Fogg and you get an offense, the Braves, that, even with Colorado's recent scoring frenzy, has still scored about 60 more runs than the Rockies for the entire year.....and Hudson, a capable pitcher for only -115.

Lines: Phi -200(BCLI line -187)
Houston -123(BCLI line -105)
Cubs -114(BCLI line -160)
Mil -126(BCLI line -120)
SD -188(BCLI line -128)
LAD -175(BCLI line -165)
Balt +111(BCLI line Balt -125)
Tor -140(BCLI line -136)
NYY -180(BCLI line -235)
Tex -126(BCLI line -126)
Det -144(BCLI line -132)
CWS -157(BCLI line -132)
LAA -103(BCLI line -130)

Thursday, September 21, 2006

Another Perfect Day

BCLI plays sweep the board again raising total to 53-44 +12.01units
BCLI line theoretical plays move total to 121-128 -8.27units

Lines: Mets -138(BCLI line -110)
Stl -127(BCLI line -145)
Mil -128(BCLI line -115)
Atl -133(BCLI line -158)
Az -106(BCLI line -127)
LAD -230(BCLI line -184)
Det -127(BCLI line -107)
Minn -170(BCLI line -165)
Cws -172(BCLI line -200)

Wednesday, September 20, 2006


BCLI plays moved up to 50-44 +8.11units yesterday
BCLI line theoretical plays moved total down to 117-123 -8.76units
BCLI starred plays moved up to 8-5 +2.67units

The Yankees won and i think i saw why the line was so low: Marcum has some stuff(but bad control) while Karstens, who actually got kinda lucky, has control but weak stuff.

Arizona +165(BCLI line AZ +101) over SD------Wells is an effective pitcher due to his control, but opposing batters hit around .300 off him. AZ is a swing away team, not taking very many walks so i think they could rip Wells. Edgar Gonzalez has only had like 3 starts so its kinda hard to tell how he'll do. rhb's hit .265 off him and lhb's .346. He pitched a good 6 inning five hitter against florida but his team was no-hit by Sanchez; his team owes him a win. Walks are not a problem for Gonzalez. Padres offense has been awakening a little bit but they're not that hot. Padres and AZ are both 6-4 in their last ten. Price to go against Wells is too good not to bet.

Milwaukee +125(BCLI line mil -107) over Stl and UNDER 9(-115)------opposing batters are hitting around .210 off Villanueva and even if he gets hit a bit, I can still win with the under because the Brewers still have shown no sign of coming out of their slump. 9 is actually high for an o/u number where the Brewers are playing no matter who is pitching, but Villanueva....he's hard to hit and doesnt walk people. Suppan pitched a 7 inning 4 hitter against the Brewers last time he faced them so Brewers have revenge motivation. However, Suppan HAS been delivering some good 7 inning starts lately.

Lines: Phi -270(BCLI line -263)
Atl -103(BCLI line -139)
Fla -128(BCLI line Mets -120)
LAD -230(BCLI line -198)
Tor -220(BCLI line -159)-----ummmmm, i wanna take toronto but this price.....i would expect Yanks would be resting some starters
Bos -130(BCLI line -150)
TX -138(BCLI line -142)
CWS -111(BCLI line -130)
LAA -150(BCLI line -130)
Oak -175(BCLI line -172)

Tuesday, September 19, 2006


Recap of yesterday: BCLI crushes Lieber and takes the +200 going 2-0
BCLI plays are now 49-44 +7.11units
BCLI line theoretical plays move up to 113-116 -4.22units
Wow, BCLI is hot, on a 16-6 run, nailing a +190 on Hill, a +200 on De La Rosa and a +200 on Marshal yesterday. B C L I ! ! !

*Yankees -130(BCLI line -195) over Toronto------opposing batters hitting around .280 off Marcum but only .240 off Karstens who has not had a bad start and is only walking 1 every 3.5 innings. Marcum is walking 1 every 2 innings and the Yankees take A LOT of walks. Further, the Yankees offense has been seriously outscoring Toronto for at least the last 5 weeks. Over the last 13 days the Yankees have scored 20 more runs then Toronto. Line is too low here but I am not suspicious; I am confident that this line is wrong by 65 cents. Even if the Yankees rest their starters, look who's on the bench: more great hitters.

Lines: Atl -131(BCLI line -176)
Phi -230(BCLI line -190)
Hou -130(BCLI line -114)
SF -130(BCLI line -141)
LAD -170(BCLI line -206)
Bos -121(BCLI line -163)------almost took Boston
Balt -125(BCLI line -158)-----almost took Balt
CWS -115(BCLI line -132)
Tex -122(BCLI line -138)
LAA -126(BCLI line -121)
Cleve +119(BCLI line cleve -105)

Monday, September 18, 2006


BCLI plays move up to 47-44 +4.11units
BCLI line theoretical plays move to 109-114 -7.26units


Stl vs Mil UNDER 8.5(-117)-----Capuano has revenge motivation against stl since he was hit by them last meeting and he had a bad start last start and should want to come back strong here. He usually does pretty well, pitching late into games. Reyes had a bad start last start and he should want to rebound. And against the weak Brewers offense, that's not hard to do. Opposing batters hit only in the .250's off Reyes. I see that the Brewers scored as many as 5 runs in 2 recent games. High for them, but who were they facing? Astacio and Ramon Ortiz......decent but average pitchers. I'd say Milwaukee is still not hitting and deserves to have its offense bet against.

Cubs +200(BCLI line +199) over philly-----Lieber is hittable and does not walk people. Cubs dont take walks. This is an advantage for the Cubs; they dont have to worry about swinging at bad pitches because Lieber throws so many strikes. The Phillies offense, of course, has scored a lot more runs than the Cubs. However, against lhp's, the phillies hit only .256 while the Cubs hit .266 vs rhp's. Marshal has been getting hit and having bad starts but he IS a lhp and has had very good starts(tho not recently). The Cubs rocked BCLI and Milton yesterday, surprising because they are weaker vs lhp's. Could their offense be getting hot? I think Lieber is a perfect pitcher for the Cubs to build on yesterday's offensive strength with. And the price is right.

Lines: Atl +103(BCLI line Atl -144)
Mets -158(BCLI line -159)
Stl +103(BCLI line stl -118)
Hou -230(BCLI line -169)
Lad +101(BCLI line LAD -110)
Balt -143(BCLI line -165)
Cws -119(BCLI line -110)

Sunday, September 17, 2006


Recap of last 3 days: BCLI plays have moved to 44-42 +3units
BCLI line theoretical plays have moved to 104-109 -7.63units
BCLI starred plays are at 7-5 +1.67units
football plays went 1-1 yesterday to bring total to 2-2

Washington +102(BCLI line wash -139) over Mil-------Nationals at home vs a lhp and facing a feeble Brewers offense.....for only +102! O'Connor has been inconsistent but opposing batters are hitting only .242 against him and hitting about .270 vs Doug Davis. Washington hits lhp's.

SD +136(BCLI line +105) over LAD and UNDER 8-------Lowe is coming off a bad start so he might come back strong here, that's why im taking the under. Dodgers offense is now turning weak again......its been ridiculously inconsistent. SD has scored 10 or more runs on 2 of the last 4 days. Hmmmmm....... ok, +136 for Padres with Young pitching? ill take that.

Cin +157(BCLI line +114) over Cubs--------the only thing wrong with this play is that the Reds offense has been pathetic recently. But lets look at Zambrano vs the Reds this year:
6 HR, 17 BB and 19 H in 24 IP. Normally, i might pass this game but my special spidey sense went up and i thought "THE REDS CAN BEAT ZAMBRANO!" It was the same sense that said "TAKE CARMONA!" i didnt listen to it then, but this time i will. Milton is too good to be +157 and the Cubs hit about 20 points lower vs lhp's. Reds do take walks and that's how you beat Zambrano.

CWS -127(BCLI line -195) over Oak--------opposing batters hit .300 off Blanton and .250 off Contreras who has just pitched a few excellent games. Blanton, on the other hand, has been getting rocked. cws has scored about 120 more runs than oakland this year.

Lines: Atl -146(BCLI line -172)
Phi -126(BCLI line -167)
Stl -130(BCLI line -102)
AZ -105(BCLI line -122)
Det -160(BCLI line -128)
Cleve -119(BCLI line -154)
Sea -130(BCLI line -110)

Saturday, September 16, 2006


Recap of yesterday: ugghhhh, Royals bullpen blows me another win, but Sisco was credited with his 5th hold so it wasnt his fault. DAMMIT I ALMOST TOOK CARMONA. Friday night at home. I like those plays. Indians offense is still, even without Hafner I think, better than the Twins. Well, whatever, ill catch up with these recaps later

Football plays:

The coming-home-rebound system only went 1-1 last week for me. So this week, I'll try the coming-home-and-maybe-im-significantly-undervalued-even-after-covering-twice system.

Pitt -2.5 over Michigan State------Pitt has 2 good covers and MSU has failed to cover against Idaho and just barely covered(by coming on strong late in the game) against Eastern Michigan. In fact the MSU game was 24-17 at halftime and the Idaho game was way too close for, maybe MSU sux. This site suggests a line of Pitt -9 based on recent results. However, it suggested last week that Colorado should be favored by more than they were and Colorado blew it. But maybe it'll predict better this week since there's more data.

Vanderbilt +5.5 over Arkansas------Ark has failed to cover twice and Vandy has covered twice coming within 3 points of Alabama. I saw Vandy's first game against Michigan and I'll tell you that they have a qb who can run, but not much other offense. Their only score was a trick play with two passes where Michigan was caught totally off guard. If not for that they wouldnt have scored(they might have missed a field goal or two). Vandy's defense, however, was quite adequate. Michigan was the beneficiary of two Vandy fumbles in the first half and even with that they only led 13-7 at halftime. I think Vandy can stop the run pretty well and I'll go out on a limb and say that if Arkansas cant pass well, they're not gonna win the game. Looks like Ark has a 50% completion percentage and has passed for about 80 yds per game. Not good. I'll take a home team with points thats a proven coverer. Go Commies!

Games that i almost took were Rice +35.5 at home vs Texas but even though Texas was exposed by OSU as highly overrated, I fear their fury to try to prove themselves worthy by whipping Rice badly. Rice does have two covers tho. Oregon i also was considering as they have 2 covers coming home to a short line. I guess my football beliefs are to find some excuse to take home teams who will probably be competitive against their opponent and be playing for the win.

Friday, September 15, 2006


*Washington -120(BCLI line -137) over milwaukee-----Brewers offense sickeningly weak and this is a good chance to profit off it. Over the last 8 days Washington has scored about 21 more runs than Milwaukee. Ohka was rocked last start but i have a gut feeling he will be rocked again here by Nats. Ortiz is a hittable pitcher, though he did almost pitch a no hitter 2 starts ago, but THE BREWERS DONT HIT AND DONT SCORE.

*Dodgers -126(BCLI line -220) over SD-------LA has hit for an average in the .280's this year versus SD's .262 average; LA has scored 80 more runs than SD; LA takes more walks than SD. Wells is more hittable than Maddux and he's left handed. LA hits .300 off lhp's. Dodgers' offense has been inconsistent but if they cant beat a hittable lhp at home on Friday night with Maddux pitching............i dont know. The Padres are teed up here at a suspiciously low -126, gotta swing at it.

KC -105(BCLI line -147) over seattle-------I dont think Seattle has a pitcher who I wouldnt bet against getting KC at home with Hudson at -105. Mariners offense is weak(probably the weakest in baseball right now) and Royals offense has been performing well above the major league average. I dont know who Cruceta is but Hudson will only be beaten by his own team's bullpen.

Balt +200(BCLI line +143) over detroit-------Tigers have 8 runs scored in their last 4 games and Bonderman has been getting ripped. Penn has had two starts in which he has been viciously rocked. He might suck but he might turn it around against an increasingly soft Tiger offense.

Philly +125(BCLI line Phi -150) over houston------Clemens shut down phillies last start and they should get revenge here. Myers is just as good as Clemens and phillies have scored about 100 more runs than houston this year. Over the last week or so, Phillies have put up some low scores, but that is because they were facing some of the best lhp's in baseball(Willis, Olsen, James) as well as Pettitte. Phillies are weak vs lhp's but clemens is not one.

SF +110(BCLI line SF -125) over Stl------over the last month Giants offense has been catching up to STL. lhb's hit Suppan well and Schmidt is markedly better.

Fla -110(BCLI line +103) over Atl------Cormier hittable; Willis rolling. Atl weaker vs lhp's

Lines: Cin -138(BCLI line -153)
Mets -170(BCLI line -230)
Az -170(BCLI line -172)
Minn -260(BCLI line -190)
Tor -260(BCLI line -210)
NYY -183(BCLI line -155)
Laa -122(BCLI line -141)
Cws -102(BCLI line -140)

Thursday, September 14, 2006



BCLI plays move to 41-38 +4.28units
BCLI line theoretical plays move to 97-100 -5.96units

Balt -128(BCLI line -176) over Boston-------both offenses weaker vs lhp, but Loewen is just so much harder to hit than Dinardo, who has been terrible this year. Loewen was recently hit hard by Boston, so he'll be going for revenge.

Tampa +250(BCLI line +221) over Yankees------Wang shut down Tampa last meeting so Drays should hit him better this time. opposing batters hit .270 off Wang; thats about average(wang's not as good as his record). Shields was rocked in his last start after pitching several good ones. He'll be looking to get it back today.

Lines: Cin -113(BCLI line -114)
SF -190(BCLI line -185)
Atl -128(BCLI line -168)
Cleve -102(BCLI line -143)
LAA -126(BCLI line -123)
KC +110(BCLI line KC -116)

Wednesday, September 13, 2006


BCLI line theoretical plays moved to 90-96 -9.83units


KC +190(BCLI line +133) over cleveland------De la Rosa rocked by Indians in last meeting, today he'll improve. Westbrook very hittable. Cleveland batting .270 vs lhp and KC batting .270 vs rhp's. royals bullpen is a joke, but their offense isnt. they've scored just as much as the Indians have over the last 4 weeks.

Lines: Houston -133(BCLI line -115)
AZ -143(BCLI line -113)
Fla -109(BCLI line -109)
Cin +135(BCLI line Cin -105)
LaD -155(BCLI line -180)
SF -134(BCLI line -109)
Minn -150(BCLI line -168)
CWS +103(BCLI line CWS -117)
Tor -101(BCLI line -123)
Balt -126(BCLI line -124)
NYY -235(BCLI line -247)
Det -130(BCLI line -116)

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

7-0 BCLI sweeps the boards!

BCLI plays surged to 40-38 +2.38units
BCLI line plays surged to 88-92 -7.17units

Seven and oh with 4 underdogs. WOW.

Plays for Tuesday:

Philly -120(BCLI line -151) over Atl--------Braves weaker vs lhp's all year. Wolf getting the job done. Davies getting rocked. He got rocked by the phillies recently, but he's been rocked in his last 2 outings(last 5 outings also if you go back into May). When has Davies got anybody out?? With offenses equal, I'd say there's a 70 cent difference between wolf and davies where the official line says its only 40 cents

Lines: Fla -125(BCLI line -135)
MIl -131(BCLI line -130)
Cin +117(BCLI line Cin -112)
LaD -155(BCLI line -170)
Cleve -210(BCLI line -210)
Det -150(BCLI line -106)
NYY -250(BCLI line -251)
Bos +101(BCLI line Bos -120)
Seattle -122(BCLI line -113)
Laa -114(BCLI line Laa +100).

Monday, September 11, 2006

Recap of yesterday: BCLI plays move to 33-38 -6.13units
BCLI line theoretical plays move to 82-91 -11.78units
BCLI starred plays move to 6-4 +1.87units
another shitty day as the Cardinals hit successfully but still lose sloppily with 3 errors. BCLI goes against SD and they have probably their best offensive day this season. what a tragedy of a day. It should get better today, it cant get worse. There is something i dont understand: Suppan yesterday was charged with no earned runs. Errors were made but i dont see how he can escape this with no earned runs:

Jeff Suppan pitching:
Carlos Quentin:
Ball, Ball, Strike swinging, Ball, Quentin walked.
Stephen O. Drew:
Strike looking, Ball, Drew doubled to left center, Quentin to third. (Suppan put both Quentin and Drew on base)
Enrique Gonzalez:
Ball, Strike swinging, Ball, Gonzalez grounded out to pitcher.
Eric Byrnes:
Strike looking, Byrnes reached on fielder's choice to third, Quentin scored, Drew to third on 3rd baseman Rolen's throwing error. (so if this error had not occurred, it would be runners of 2nd and 3rd 1 out)
Orlando Hudson:
Strike looking, Ball, Foul, Ball, Drew stole home(ok if error hadnt occurred Drew would not be able to steal home?), Byrnes stole second, Ball, Hudson singled to right, Byrnes scored.(if error hadnt occurred, Byrnes would not be on base so he's not an earned run?)
Luis E. Gonzalez:
Ball, Strike looking, Ball, Gonzalez singled to deep right, Hudson to third.
Johnny Estrada:
Estrada singled to right, Hudson scored, Gonzalez to second.
Conor Jackson:
Strike looking, Strike looking, Ball, Ball, Jackson grounded into double play shortstop to second to first, Estrada out at second.

(the bottom line is, Hudson hit himself on and was singled in by estrada, yet Suppan was not charged with an earned run for any of the 4 runs that scored here. The error happened with no outs. I dont understand this)


Cubs +190(BCLI line +220) over Atl------I think you have to try Hill here. His last 3 or 4 starts he has dominated. I questioned him based on his early failures, but maybe he's different now. Atl has hit worse(.255) vs lhps all year. Smoltz can be tough but lhb's are hitting .277 off him. Could be close going into late innings.

Wash +143(BCLI line wash -105) over AZ-----Vargas is an average mlb pitcher. AZ offense just not performing lately. Traber is coming off 2 bad starts, the last one vs AZ and he'll be going for redemption. -153 is not befitting of a team as weak offensively as AZ has been with a starting pitcher so average.

NYY -180(BCLI line -230)-------Johnson going for revenge after being hit by balt recently, Lopez recently shut down Yanks. Balt weaker vs lhp's

Fla -109(BCLI line -135) over Mets-------Sanchez just too unhittable( .200) compared to Williams. Fla a little weak vs lhp but I'll still take this price.

Toronto +103(BCLI line Tor -146) over seattle and UNDER 9--------Toronto has been better vs lhp's during the year(part of that was Hillenbrand who they've since gotten rid of), Woods has yet to reach the 7 th inning and Lilly is back on track(he's clearly better than Woods). Problem is that Blue Jays offense HAS BEEN WEAK LATELY. But SEattle offense has been weaker.

CWS +115(BCLI line cws -133) over LAA------Lackey is good, but he's not unhittable anymore; his last 10 games he's allowed 90 hits in 60 innings(he's become quite hittable, though walks arent a problem). CWS have scored about 100 more runs this year than LAA. Contreras only slightly more hittable, over the course of the season, than Lackey. But of late, there is no question: Lackey much more hittable.

Lines: Pitt -120(BCLI line -120)
Stl -157(BCLI line -171)
Minn -113(BCLI line -113)

Sunday, September 10, 2006


recap of yesterday: BCLI plays move to 32-36 -4.67units
BCLI line plays move to 78-88 -12.38units
Football plays go 1-1

Tigers get only 1 run off bonser?? hmmm. Loaiza finally gets Tampa. hmmmm. Chacin, 3rd consecutive good start I believe. Guess i should have used Washington State in my coming home rebound system.....Colorado wasnt really playing at home.

*SF -122(BCLI line -190) over SD-------Sf has scored about 30 more runs than sd in the last three weeks AND for the year. Is that factored in to a -122 line? rhb's hit .236 off Morris and .298 off Williams. Watching Williams last start i was like: 'he looks tired and weak'. you know what, I'm gonna star this play, the price is just too low.

Stl -124(BCLI line -126) over AZ------Gonzalez has just 4 atrocious starts, he's inconsistent and probably tired at this stage in the season. Suppan, however, has just had 3 straight good starts.

Atl -150(BCLI line -252) over Cubs----- -150??? what? who on the Braves just got hurt? Cormier is coming off a complete shutdown of the Phillies, tho both pitchers here have been hittable. Atlanta's offense is much better than the Cubs and -150 is not accounting for that.

Oh, man , If i werent so tired, I might take Redman
Phi -115(BCLI line -132)
Mil -133(BCLI line -133)
Col -155(BCLI line -163)
Oak -165(BCLI line -164)
NYY -165(BCLI line -200)
Bos -155(BCLI line -152)
Minn -175(BCLI line -163)
LAA -114(BCLI line -124)

Friday, September 08, 2006

Saturday baseball

Recap of Friday: BCLI plays move up to 31-34 -4.58units
BCLI line plays on all games moved to 74-81 -9.29units
BCLI starred plays moved up to 6-3 +3.09units

Detroit -109(BCLI line -124) over Minn------I like this because bonser is one of those pitchers who throws strikes, doesnt walk people and Detroit is walking about once ever 13 at bats(DETROIT DOESNT TAKE WALKS). So, hopefully, as Bonser puts em over, tigers will be swinging and hitting. And Bonser is more hittable than Robertson. The Twins offense HAS been catching up to Detroit but I think the Tigers have a good chance to get out to an early lead and then.......nobody has an answer to Zumaya.

Cleve +190(BCLI line +144) over CWS------opposing batters hit .285 about off Garland and Cleveland has scored more runs than only 2 other teams. I cant ignore a +190 in that situation. Garland HAS pitched 5 consecutive good starts deep into the game, but Cleveland is Cleveland.

KC +200(BCLI line +180) over Boston-----Royals owe Hudson a win after pathetically blowing his probable win vs the Yankees. He's had 2 good starts. overall opposing batters have hit around .290 off Hudson and .245 off Beckett. Beckett has recently done well vs the Royals and he MAY be good enough to shut them down again despite their revenge instinct. However, both these teams bullpens suck like hell so having a +200 going into the last 3 or 4 innings might look pretty good.

lines: Phi -140(BCLI line -191) vs Fla
Cin -155(BCLI line -194) vs pitt
Wash +106(BCLI line wash -124) vs Col
AZ -133(BCLI line -156) vs Stl
CWS -205(BCLI line -154) vs Cleve
Det -109(BCLI line -124) vs Minn
Oak -155(BCLI line -165) vs Tampa
TX +115(BCLI line texas -110) vs Sea
Laa -160(BCLI line -113) vs Tor
Mil -115(BCLI line -115) vs Hou
Atl -220(BCLI line -260) vs Cubs

goddam Kansas City and please, terrorists, destroy that fucking hell hole. I cant believe this shit. a starred BCLI play has gone from 8-3 KC up to 9-8 Boston. Did this not just fucking happen to me? Did Jimmy fucking Gobble not just lose me a +200? The Royals bullpen is a fucking crime. A GODDAM FUCKING CRIME. this is sick, this is a fucking atrocity. I want a body count IN KANSAS CITY by tomorrow night. 26 blown saves this season, and now its time for somebody to DIE!

Ok, thank god for that, and Joe Nelson. Put the guns down. I forgot that ace in the hole: the redsox keep using Mike Timlin.

College Football plays:

This is my coming home rebound system.
CAL -8 over Minnesota----Cal probably will turn out to be a good team this year but last game they lost to Tennesse and failed to cover. Motivation should be strong.

COLORADO +3.5 over Colorado State-----embarrassing loss last week for Colorado, this matchup site suggests a line of Col -9

BCLI plays fell to 29-33 -5.86units


*KC +151(BCLI line +133) over Boston-------Boston has been weaker vs lhp's all year and I think Perez can keep this game close even if he does allow say 8 or 9 hits(he is only walking 1 every 4 innings). The key to this play is KC's offense vs Jarvis, a guy who is throwing a .350 batting average to hitters this year. He hasnt done anything good. over the last 3 weeks, Kc has scored 100 runs while Boston has scored only 81. For the year, the Redsox batting average is only a few points higher than KC's. Perez is coming off 2 bad starts after throwing 3 good ones. This is a good opportunity for him to get back on track because the Redsox should not be able to utilize their primary offensive strength: taking walks.

SF -105(BCLI line -141) over SD-----Cain is actually harder to hit than Peavy and Sf has scored nearly 30 more runs than SD over the last 3 weeks. Can i get a home team win on friday night you goddam mutherfuckers?

NYY -123(BCLI line -183) over baltimore-------Lidle and Bedard are about equal while the yankees are the best offense in baseball and have scored about 48 more runs than Balt over the last 3 weeks. Bedard has also shut down the yanks recently so i think they will do better against him today

lines: Atl -200(BCLI line -230) vs cubs
Cin -125(BCLI line -167) vs Pitt
Mets -163(BCLI line -172) vs la
Mil -101(BCLI line Mil -107) vs hou
Col -128(BCLI line -117) vs wash
Stl -131(BCLI line -137) vs AZ
Sf -105(BCLI line -141) vs Sd
Bos -161(BCLI line -143) vs kc
Nyy -123(BCLI line -183) vs Balt
Oak -134(BCLI line -157) vs Tampa
Det -102(BCLI line -111) vs Minn
Cws -135(BCLI line -143) vs Cleve
Tor -102(BCLI line -110) vs Laa
Tex -117(BCLI line -166) vs Sea

Thursday, September 07, 2006

The Continuing Crisis

......O thou wall,
that girdlest in those wolves, dive in the earth,
And fence not Athens!
.....Piety, and fear,
Religion to the gods, peace, justice, truth,
Domestic awe, night-rest, and neighbourhood,
Instruction, manners, mysteries, and trades,
Degrees, observances, customs, and laws,
Decline to your confounding contraries,
And let confusion live!
---Timon of Athens

BCLI plays fall hard to 27-30 -4.49units
BCLI line theoretical plays move to 69-78 -11.4units

A sick, despicable day and I am disgusted at going 1-4. Cabrera walks only 2 but the Orioles lose; Blanton gets rocked yet i still lose betting on the Rangers, the stronger offense; Duke shuts down the Cubs yet the Pirates cant make contact facing a left hander; and the Phillies waste a fine Wolf performance at home. This is not what I deserve. I DEMAND justice.....Clinton, you scumbag lying asshole, you want to continue to keep the American people from the truth. You didnt kill Bin Laden. So what? Nobody else did either. You're also not the fucking president anymore, so shut the fuck up. You took your one shot and you missed. The CIA did a lot of work giving you one more chance. Tenet advised no, Clarke advised no(because he was cozy with U.A.E royals) and you said no because, due to the fact that you were impeached, you werent technically the commader in chief anymore and didnt have the authority to lead the military. You disgraced the Presidency in many ways and everyone knows that, how can you profess to care that ABC will besmirch the reputation of an administration so shameless in its acceptance of sleaze that it pardoned Marc Rich and vandalized the oval office as its final acts?
As angry and pissed off as I am at this shit, I will still grow and evolve as a handicapper. There have been 4 pitchers(Rich Hill, Clemens, Loaiza and Pettite) who I have bet against due to my perception of their overvaluation. The one thing that they had in common was that they had just come off 3 or 4 really good starts. The official line adjusted, favoring them more, and it turned out to be RIGHT to do so as every single one of them pitched a 4th or 5th consecutive good start. I will incorporate this phenomenon into my future plays. And I better win with it, or I will call for retributional justice(actually im calling for that anyway), attacks against America, Bush's assassination, whatever it takes. In fact, I am so pissed about this, I WANT Iran to enrich more fucking uranium, I WANT death to Israel and America to punish them for lying about who started wars. Fuck it. I better win today.

Arizona -105(BCLI line -126) over Stl and UNDER 9.5---------Here it is: Batista has just had 4 excellent starts allowing just 6 earned runs total. Since im now using this situation, which i have LOST to, as an indicator to bet on, ill take AZ. Weaver is having a bad year and even arizona, which has been scoring poorly lately(but only slightly more poorly than sane Louis), should be able to beat him.

Florida -122(BCLI line -130) over Philly and UNDER 8.5------having just bet on philly twice based on their 'strong' offense, I have been disgusted by their offensive performance the last two days. Lieber was rocked by Florida last meeting so he could come back and do well here. However, Johnson is SOO much harder to hit than Lieber and the Marlins are the anointed ones right now(thanks for that no hitter last night, Sanchez, it saved me from being blanked which i fucking hate) and I cant see them losing again until Nolasco pitches. Johnson is dominating.

Mets -120(BCLI line -150) over LAD-------Glavine's last start sucked, he needs to rebound here. I am aware than La hits .300 vs lhp's(well, not anymore) but seeing as how the Dodgers got shut out by at best an average Lhp doug Davis, losing me money, 2 days ago, and then scoring only 2 off Capuano yesterday, what am I suppose to think. Of Penny's last 10 starts, he's only made it past the 6th innings 2 times. He's not nearly as good as he was early in the season and the Mets offense is more consistent, if not a lot better, than the Dodgers.

I demand that these picks win.

Wednesday, September 06, 2006


recap of yesterday: BCLI plays fall to 26-26 -1.49units
BCLI line plays fall to 65-72 -9.4units

Pitt +112(BCLI line pitt -110) over Cubs-----Duke rocked by cubs last meeting. Hill shut down Pirates last meeting. reversal theory. Hill has had 3 good starts and I do wonder how he got so much better than he was. However, none of those teams hits .291 vs lhp's like Pitt does. Of course, that might not matter if Hill has developed some new pitch that i dont know about and somehow goes on to have a successful mlb career(i doubt it). And Duke is pitching about a .320 average to rhb's. But the reversal setup is all over this game and i still dont respect Hill.

Fla -162(BCLI line -182)-----Edgar gonzalez is just no where near as good as Sanchez who has been shutting everyone down. Florida offense(and team) hotter than AZ. I'll pay the price

Tex +113(BCLI line Texas -146) over Oakland------opposing hitters hitting .300 off Blanton(i dont see how that guy is 14-10). Padilla has completely shutdown oakland twice recently so I realize they might get him this time. However, Padilla is going for redemption after getting rocked his last start and the Rangers have scored about 85 more runs than oakland this year and are hitting about 20 points higher in batting average

Phi +101(BCLI line phi -180) over houston------ive been pondering this line for 2 days now and I think the official line makers are dwelling on Pettitte's last 5 starts, which were good, where he allowed only 25 hits in 34 innings. Ok, but that was against 4 of the weakest offenses in baseball. Lets see him shutdown philly, a team that has scored more runs in the last 20 days than everyone but the Yankees, and about 40 more than the Astros

Balt +143(BCLI line +128) over LAA-----I'll give Cabrera one more chance. he's coming off a subpar start. ok, good. He's just as hard to hit as santana, who is coming off 2 bad starts. And these offense are dead even in my book with baltimore scoring about 10 more runs over the last 3 weeks. And of course, cabrera is wild as hell and the Angels swing at anything.

Lines: Lad -105(BCLI line-141) vs Mil
SD -142(BCLI line -108) vs Col
Cleve +101(BCLI line cleve -117) vs Tor
Cws -117(BCLI line -140) vs Bos
Minn -121(BCLI line -122) vs Tampa
Nyy -230(BCLI line -231) vs KC
Mets(Perez) -124(BCLI line -140) vs Atl

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

recap of yesterday: BCLI plays went 4-1 moving total to 26-24 +.6units
BCLI line theoretical plays on all games moved total to 62-65 -6.16units
notes: Woody Williams puts up pretty good numbers but after watching him pitch.......i dont know about that guy. He won for me but......i dont know. And Andrew Sisco, jesus christ, how many +200's can he fucking ruin for hard-working handicappers? In his career he has 10 SVO's(im assuming that's save opportunites) and 1 save. So how many blown saves is that? I know he's broken a perfect underdog winner at least twice for me this year. Fuck him.

Philly +104(BCLI line -186) over Houston-----Astros have scored 89 runs in the last 20 days while the phillies have scored 135. I dont think Pettite(rhb's hit .293 off him, lhb's .270) in significantly better than wolf. maybe houston has a superior bullpen, i dont know. But this line is just too far off not to play

LAD -109(BCLI line -177) over Milwaukee----- Dodgers 103 runs over last 20 days against milwaukees 84. Brewers continue to hit worse and worse vs lhps(now at .247 vs lhp's) while dodgers hit .300 vs lhp's. Do line makers know something BCLI does not?

Tampa +220(BCLI line +180) over Minnesota and UNDER 8-------Seo hasnt been so good lately, however, he did get rocked vs the Twins last meeting and he did get rocked in his last start so I think he's worth betting(at this price) to come back and pitch a decent game. Tampa and minnesota have both scored only 82 and 81 runs over the last 20 days. worse then everybody except seattle. could be a close low scoring game. Tampa has raised their average vs lhp 10 points over last 20 days

Lines: Fla -173(BCLI line -176)
Stl -130(BCLI line -103)
SF +103(BCLI line SF -103)
Atl -118(BCLI line -136)
Cubs -117(BCLI line -109)
SD -138(BCLI line -109)
Det -168(BCLI line -168)
Cws -132(BCLI line -150)
Tor -165(BCLI line -129)
NYY -240(BCLI line -220)
Laa -178(BCLI line -153)
Tx +110(BCLI line Tx -125)

Monday, September 04, 2006

Never Again

will I expect the Reds to either hit or win. A fine performance by Milton, but paradise was lost by offensive P A TH E T I C N E S S. I guarantee that I will win my money back by betting Reds' unders and betting against them. This is a new handicapping rule.

BCLI plays fell to 22-23 -2.56units
BCLI line theoretical plays fell to 55-62 -11.02units

My God the Reds suck.

Angels -180(BCLI line -216) over Balt------i hate the orioles for making me lose yesterday(Loaiza has apparently gained 10 mph on his fastball and is a totally different pitcher now, i didnt know that yesterday but i should have) but i think they'll lose today because Lopez is just too hittable and Weaver too unhittable. Weaver is coming off a bad start last outing and im confident he'll come back(probably it was his ONLY bad outing this year)

SD -165(BCLI line -141) over Col------Fogg has been very bad lately and Williams will be not only seeking revenge for the Rockies hitting him some weeks ago, but also redemption for his last start which was bad. Based on my reversal system, he has double motivation to do well today.

Atl +116(BCLI line +118) over Mets------James was knocked out after less than 2 innings versus the mets last time he faced them and will do better this time. He's doing much better lately and is harder to hit than Trachsel. Trachsel is a tough competitor but he's just been hit too much recently(and this year) to ignore a play against him when you get James. Mets are hitting ok but they're at the stage where they dont really 'need' to win and Atlanta is 'kind of' still in the wild card race(5 games back).

Philadelphia -104(BCLI line -164) over Houston-------Hamels at home for only -104? The astros do hit Lhp's better, i realize that, and i realize that right handed batter are hitting .181 off Clemens. Clemens is throwing strikes too. But I still dont accept his numbers this year. Lets look at who he's faced: The pathetic Brewers, the worse-offense-in-baseball Cubs, and the Pirates. And he's faced all of these teams TWICE. If he beats Hamels on the road, maybe I'll start to respect him. Maybe.

KC +200(BCLI line +161) over Yankees--------both the royals and Yankees are 5-5 in their last 10 games. Hudson is a capable pitcher. If you throw out his worst-start-in-baseball-history against Cleveland, he would have allowed only 72 hits in 70 innings. that's fine. I have no comment on Wang other than that he's worth betting against at this price, in my expert opinion.

The plays that I almost wanna make but wont would be Cincinatti under 9.5, milwaukee under 8.5 and Florida. Loaiza and the reds crushed me yesterday so i gotta be disciplined.

Lines: Fla -132(BCLI line -137)
Stl -119(BCLI line -109)
LAD -130(BCLI line -134)
Cubs -200(BCLI line -172)
Phi -104(BCLI line -164)
Cin -128(BCLI line -115)
Mets -126(BCLI line -128)
SD-165(BCLI line -141)
Det -143(BCLI line -177)
Cleve -141(BCLI line -119)
Minn -135(BCLI line -135)
Oak -165(BCLI line -157)
CWS -157(BCLI line -180)
Nyy -220(BCLI line -171)
LAA -180(BCLI line -216)

Sunday, September 03, 2006


Recap: BCLI plays moved to 22-21 -.56units overall
BCLI line theoretical plays on all games where the BCLI line differred from the official line by 10 cents or more moved up to 53-53 -2.59units
BCLI starred plays moved to 5-3 +1.58units

Cincinatti +118(BCLI line Cin -130) over SD------Reds offense is struggling but Wells is a hittable lhp and reds hit .279 vs lhp while Padres hit like .262 vs lhp. Milton is better than Wells and Reds have scored 40-50 more runs than SD this year. Price is right.

Baltimore +175(BCLI line +122) over Oak------I was just gonna play cincinatti and nothing else, but this line is just begging to be played. Let's look at this: Oakland has scored 625 runs while baltimore has scored 658. oakland has hit .255 while Orioles have hit .275. So all other things being equal, you start Oakland at -120 because they are at home.....then you factor in Baltimore's superior offense....lets say its between 33 cents and 15, conservatively, if the pitchers and bullpens are equal, Oakland can be no more than a -105 favorite. Yet the official line is at -189! OK, so Loaiza is 80 cents better than the rookie, Penn??? Well, he's not. opposing batters hit around .300 off Loaiza prior to his last 4 starts. However, in this last 4 starts, Loaiza has shut everybody down. Personally, having watched him against the Bluejays, I think he's just getting lucky; Toronto was hitting the ball right at the fielders that game. Over those last 4 games, Loaiza has walked only 3 in 30 innings. And this will be why the Orioles will rock him today: Baltimore just doesnt walk; 1 walk every 11.5 at bats. That's terrible. Loaiza's gonna be throwing strikes and the orioles will be swinging away.

Lines: AZ -135(BCLI line -150)
Atl +105(BCLI line atl -112)
Houston -157(BCLI line -105)
Fla -108(BCLI line -137)
Stl -175(BCLI line -166)
SF -165(BCLI line -145)
LAD -150(BCLI line -162)
Det -118(BCLI line -111)
Nyy -143(BCLI line -157)
Sea -141(BCLI line -137)
Tex -160(BCLI line -104)
Boston -140(BCLI line -138)
CWS -153(BCLI line -170)
Oak -189(BCLI line -132)
Phi(Myers) -175(BCLI line -167)

Saturday, September 02, 2006


BCLI plays moved up to 20-20 -1.07units overall
BCLI line theoretical plays moved to 46-50 -8.7units on all games
BCLI starred plays are 4-3 +.58units

Saturday Plays

*Mets -125(BCLI line -175) over Houston------Why do the official line makers think the mets suck on the road? I was seriously considering betting Williams and Glavine at the discounted -115 prices, but I didnt. This time, its just too obvious: THIS LINE IS WRONG. opposing batters are hitting @.200 off Maine and @.300 off Hirsh. Oh, and the Mets have scored about 90 more runs this year than the Astros. Bet the Mets big.

Florida +116(BCLI line Fla -112) over Milwaukee-----Brewers still not hitting.....Florida offense strenthening......opposing batters hitting .270 off Sheets and only .225 off Johnson....oh, and we get a +116 for Florida also when they have the better pitcher and the better offense? gotta take that.

Yankees -165(BCLI line -168) over minnesota------Baker doesnt walk people but he is HIGHLY hittable and the Twins have scored, like, 3 runs or less in their last 5 games. Karstens looks ok.

Cincinatti vs SD under 8(-115)-----both pitchers had been doing well for at least 4 starts and then got rocked last start. They both want to come back strong today. Reds offense has been sputtering and Padres have been weak all year.

Lines: SF -150(BCLI line -139)
AZ(Hernandez) -116 (BCLI line -125)
Fla +116(BCLI line FLA -112)
Mets -125(BCLI line -175)
Phi(Mathieson) ?(BCLI line -116)
Stl -180(BCLI line -165)
SD -165(BCLI line -123)
LAD -165(BCLI line -174)
Nyy -165(BCLI line -168)
Oak -170(BCLI line -133)
Tor ?(BCLI line -125)
Det -165(BCLI line -137)
CWS -160(BCLI line -203)
Sea -115(BCLI line -108)
Tex -117(BCLI line -103)
Phi(Lieber) ?(BCLI line -128)
Az(Batista) ?(BCLI line -109)

Friday, September 01, 2006


BCLI plays fell to 18-20 -3.28units
BCLI line theoretical plays fell to 43-46 -7.21units

Florida +121(BCLI line +117)------both pitchers did well against these offenses last time but Sanchez is harder to hit than Capuano and Milwaukee has an extremely weak offense, both for the season and lately. Tampa and the Cubs are below Milwaukee in hitting, but i dont think anyone else is. It looks like in their last nine games Florida has scored 54 runs and milwaukee has scored 28.

Yankees -170(BCLI line -172)-------Lidle is decent and has been doing decently. Except for last start where he failed. I think Lidle is good enough to be able to rebound here against the Twins. Silva has probably allowed more hits this year than anyone in baseball, if the Yankees dont hit him.......well, I think they will. Might be a good run line to bet.

well, -3.28units over 38 bets. Not good. Hater comments declaring BCLI 'dead'. But it could be worse. Whenever you think things are bad for you, read some stories from here. The fucking Republicans are trying to ban internet gambling because.......why? Because it ruins people's lives when they go into debt and lose money? If that's the only reason, they should also ban post-secondary education because SOME people do go into debt and lose a lot of money on that. I know there's injustice in the world, but listen to some of this shit:
"I have a Master's degree that is apparently useless. Currently I have three jobs to support myself, all of them temp positions. I'm overqualified for most work, and underqualified for work within my own field. Trapped in limbo with a $120,000 tab on my head, I have been told frankly by my lenders that with all my interest and the 30-year repayment program (because I can't do it any other way right now) that I will be paying somewhere in the range of $500,000 and one million dollars. All in the name of a dream wherein I would become a journalist, at a meager $25,000 salary, chasing stories and serving the public. Blah blah blah.
This is a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't kind of world. Without a college education, no one wants to really hire you. With too much education, no one wants to hire you. I will pay thousands of dollars to some mythical institution that gave me the power (ie money) to attend school to pursue my dreams....only to find that with my wishes granted, my dreams are destroyed as I struggle in administrative temping just to get enough money to pay the bills. On top of that, I'm told I should be very grateful I was even accepted into the temp pool at all.I had the thought of killing myself many times, but the realization that my loan's responsibility would merely fall onto the shoulders of my co-signer (my mother) is what really keeps me going."

"HEAL LOAN HORROR - Here is my story and I am so thankful that there is a website like this one. In 1984 I took out an $18,000 HEAL loan (health education assistance loan) to get through medical school. I didn't realize at the time the lifelong ramifications of this loan and how it has destroyed my life and my entire medical careerAfter a couple years I was sanctioned from Medicare because this HEAL loan is tied to every Federal insurance program out there. I was barred from seeing Medicare, Medicaid, Tricare, Champus, etc. patients. I was told if I saw them, even for FREE, I would be arrested and put in jail. I went bankrupt and ultimately lost my entire practice and am now unemployed. I was told that when I turn 65 they will take my social security money"

"The Dept. of Ed. has an "Income Contingent" paymentplan whereby the balance outstanding on a studentloan is "discharged" after 25 years of payments"

Lines: SF -124(BCLI line -138) vs Cubs
AZ -105(BCLI line -109) vs Wash
Phi -134(BCLI line -128) vs Atl
Mets -113(BCLI line -156) vs Hou
Mil -131(BCLI line -127) vs Fla
Stl -220(BCLI line -198) vs Pitt
Cin +109(BCLI line Cincy -119) vs SD
LAD -150(BCLI line -144) vs Col
Det -131(BCLI line -133) vs Laa
Tor -141(BCLI line -139) vs Bos
NYY -170(BCLI line -172) vs Minn
Sea -103(BCLI line -111) vs Tampa
Tex -141(BCLI line -126) vs vs Cleve
CWS -165(BCLI line -219) vs KC
Oak -124(BCLI line -112) vs Balt