Saturday, March 31, 2007

Clippers Portland OVER 180.5 (192) REST3 (Win by 4.5)
Philadelphia New Jersey OVER 189 (194) REST2 (Lose by 21)

Friday, March 30, 2007

Houston Lakers UNDER 196.5 (196.5) REST5 (Lose by 14.5......Foul before the clock time comes off.....put him on the line.....brick....brick....unconvicted rapist escapes outside for the rebound.....its up for threeeeeee...its good!!! Overtime! under loses! Gotta love NBA action....its FaaaanTastic)
Clippers Sacramento UNDER 197 (196.5) REST7 (Lose by 9......Full-moon Friday night Fourth quarter Final minute Fucking Flagrant Foul-Fest. Fourteen Fucking points scored in the Final Fucking 33 seconds???! I have more respect for soccer and badminton than I do for basketball. This fucking sport is a joke.

Thursday, March 29, 2007

Phoenix Golden State UNDER 225.5 (212.5) REST6 (Lose by 17.5)

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Philadelphia Washington UNDER 206 (201.5) REST6 (Lose by 13)
Houston Clippers UNDER 190.5 (189.5) REST6 (Win by 11.5)
New Orleans San Antonio OVER 187.5 (189) REST3 (Lose by 7.5)

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

There was a question recently from an avid BCLI subscriber about how BCLI chooses bets after 1) considering how rested the teams are and 2) evaluating the actual o/u number relative to the average scores put up by the two teams throughout the season.
I answered the question in the comments on a previous entry by saying that I look at how teams have been scoring recently and the tendency of the home team to go UNDER or OVER. But basically, I'm not doing anything systematic....just trying to figure out which games look "the best".
I have been tracking data on the home team's tendency to go over/under and its relevance to the BCLI "rest" system. I had not tallied up the data until just a few hours ago.

What I discovered was surprising and counter-intuitive to my assumptions. I tallied up all REST2's, 3's, 5's, 6's and higher. In other words, all games from the last 63 days which were not REST4(REST4 is the most common "rest" situation and therefore the one you would expect to give no edge). First of all, if you simply went UNDER on REST5's or higher and OVER on REST2's and REST3's over the last 63 days, you'd have gone 109-88(55%).....a winning system in itself. But lets say you look, as i have, at the home team's tendency to go OVER or UNDER at home relative to its o/u record on the road.
For example, let's look at MEMPHIS at LAKERS going today. Its REST3, so you're looking to bet OVER. You look at the combined scoring average of both teams and you see its 207. You look at the actual o/u number and its 219, far above the average which makes you want to not bet on this game. Maybe, you think, 219 is a good and justified number since you know that Memphis and the Lakers are "OVER" teams, teams which score high and go over more than they go under. The home team, the Lakers, has gone OVER 22 times at home and UNDER 12 times at home while they are even at 18-18 o/u on the road. A strong tendency to go OVER at home. And that is the question I've been studying: Are the Lakers a better bet to go OVER playing at home because they go OVER playing at home a lot?

The answer is NO. Over the last 63 days, a team in the Lakers situation would be expected to go OVER 44 times against 45 UNDERS (44-45). However, if a team had a tendency to go UNDER at home, and they were playing at home on REST2 or REST3, or conversely, if a team had a tendency to go OVER at home and was playing at home on REST5, 6, 7 or higher, betting in the direction which the REST indicated(AGAINST the team's o/u tendency at home) would have netted you 65 wins and 43 losses (65-43) 60%.

That is quite the Holy Grail in sports betting: a "dumb", mechanical 60% winning system. To reiterate, look at the direction( over/under ) that the REST indicates, if the home team has a tendency, relative to its road o/u record, to go in the OPPOSITE direction of the REST, betting in the direction indicated by the REST is a BETTER bet and is, or has been, a 60% winning system

Monday, March 26, 2007

San Antonio Golden State OVER 201.5 (199.5) REST2 (Win by 13.5)
Toronto Boston UNDER 197 (196.5) REST6 (Win by 15)
Orlando Knicks UNDER 181 (193) REST6 (Lose by 2)

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Phoenix Sacramento UNDER 217.5 (207) REST6 (Win by 10.5)
Detroit Milwaukee UNDER 189 (195) REST6 (Lose by 27)

Friday, March 23, 2007

Portland Atlanta OVER 181.5 (191) REST3 (Win by 20.5....OT saved it)
Washington Golden State UNDER 220 (210.5) REST5 (Lose by 43)

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Minnesota Sacramento OVER 198 (198.5) REST3 (Lose by 14)
Dallas Cleveland OVER 186 (191.5) REST2 (Win by 2)
Orlando Toronto UNDER 196 (193) REST6 (Win by 19)

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Cleveland Charlotte UNDER 195 (193) REST6 (Lost by 13.....ahhhh, fucking overtime)
Golden State Utah UNDER 206 (205) REST6 (Win by 2)

Denver New Jersey UNDER 209.5 (202) REST5 (Win by 25.5)
Minnesota Phoenix UNDER 209 (204) REST5 (Win by 11)

Saturday, March 17, 2007

Chicago Memphis UNDER 203 (200) REST6 (Lose by 4)
Golden State Seattle UNDER 218 (206.5) REST5 (Win by 21)

Friday, March 16, 2007

Minnesota Golden State UNDER 207.5 (203.5) REST7 (Win by 15.5)

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Atlanta Boston OVER 189 (194) REST2 (Win by 8)
Detroit Portland OVER 181.5 (190.5) REST2 (Lose by 19.5....never bet Detroit over again)

Chicago Philadelphia OVER 186 (193.5) REST2 (Lose by 11)
Knicks Toronto UNDER 199 (199.5) REST6 (Win by 1)

Sunday, March 11, 2007

Golden State Portland UNDER 207.5 (202) REST7 (Win by 14.5)
Orlando Houston UNDER 186.5 (187) REST5 (Lose by 8.5)
Seattle Toronto UNDER 204 (199) REST6 (Lose by 35)

Saturday, March 10, 2007

*Knicks Washington UNDER 207.5 (206) REST7 (Win by 28.5)
*Minnesota Atlanta OVER 186 (193) REST2 (Win by 6)

....they "look" strong; gotta star'em

Alert! BCLI is now 23-6 on its last 29 bets(not counting pushes) after this last 2-0 sweep shown above. The BCLI NBA record on the season has risen to 66-45(+16.5units), a highly profitable 60%.

Friday, March 09, 2007

Clippers Golden State UNDER 200 (201.4) REST6 (Win by 12....lucky after that 68pt first qrt)
New Orleans Phoenix UNDER 209.5 (201) REST5 (Win by 2.5....a sick 60 3pt-shot attempts and it still goes under)

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Charlotte Phoenix UNDER 218(204) REST5 (Lose by 3.....Absolutely despicable Overtime . This game was under by 22 fucking points at the end of regulation)

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

New Orleans Denver UNDER 208 (199) REST6 (Win by 11)
Indiana Sacramento UNDER 200.5 (198) REST6 (Win by .5)

Saturday, March 03, 2007

San Antonio Houston OVER 177 (187.5) REST2 (Lose by 6....absolutely PATHETIC performance by the Rockets, and a sick 31 pts scored in the 4th could this game go so wrong.....Rockets cant fucking shoot.)
Knicks Atlanta OVER 192 (195.5) REST2 (Win by 12)
Detroit Memphis OVER 198 (197.5) REST2 (Lose by 17.....a pathological display of poor shooting in the 3rd quarter.....what was it? like 12 consecutive missed shots in the 3rd quarter.....I'm fucking disgusted)
Sacramento Portland OVER 201 (197) REST3 (Lose by 1......what a sick, perverted joke....they scored 108 points in the first happened?)

Well, whatever, I'll still take a 17-5 run. Baseball will be here soon and BCLI will show you how to make some real money. Odd how when the market first cracked, tv heads were saying "Don't panic" and maintaining their bullishness. After all, this was only a "3.5% correction" which was overdue due to ZERO volatility since last August. Now, today, on Monday morning, I see people on FOX being "non-bullish", saying "it depends what your time-frame is". Hmmmmm. I remember chatting on the JDSU board sometime around the turn of the millenium and asking "what if tech becomes trash again?" After getting laughed at by some of the most conceited, arrogant, nouveau-riche brats I've ever heard on the internet, one of them responded with "maybe over the short-term you're right.....but I'm putting JDSU in my IRA." Sure, I had made money being long JDSU, like everyone else, it was the hottest stock. But there's usually two sides to every market story. And when it pours, its usually because it has started to rain first.
In other words, for a long time(and I predict we'll hear more about this soon) the stock market hasnt really dealt with the fact that America exports nothing but debt now. The dollar market, well, yeah, IT has: the dollar index is making new lows. I think markets have a suspicious way of predicting (and causing) what they are theoretically supposed to respond to. (See the Sorosian concept of "reflexivity").
To be clear, BCLI is saying that there WILL be a recession and this recent DOW decline will be altogether a prelude, precursor, predictor, agent and cause of the coming recession. And yes, in late October BCLI called for a "black monday". The market stubbornly ignored this call and continued its ascent. And that's why market crashes have to happen. When the market doesnt check-down when it should, it builds up "wrongness" which must be cathartically expunged at some point in the future.
What HAPPENED during the last 6 months of market action? Real corporate earnings? Or a natural conspiracy of greed between hedge funds, Goldman Sachs and institutional investors? To me, it seemed "blow-offy". But that's just from looking at the chart.
I reiterate, WAIT! I just heard it on CNBC: people should be "reassessing their expectations". This from the same mouth that said "we like the fundamentals" just a moment before. What IS this? "Reflexivity", probably, whatever that is. As i was saying, I reiterate, the DOW needs to get down fast and bounce hard. If it does the opposite: slow, lurching unravelling as people "reassess".........not just their expectations, but their faith in America's "great", "healthy" economy, well, if it does that, selling everything now would be, ummmm, advantageous.

Friday, March 02, 2007

Orlando San Antonio UNDER 185 (189) REST6 (Win by 13)
Indiana Phoenix UNDER 211 (204.5) REST5 (Win by 6)
Utah Minnesota UNDER 198 (197.5) REST5 (Win by 6)
Detroit Miami UNDER 183 (191.5) REST7 (Win by 16)