Monday, December 31, 2007

Indiana Oklahoma State UNDER 69----------Theses defenses are both bad....therefore, the total should be 69? Ummm, Indiana has played only 1 game(out of 12 this year) where the total went over 69 points. Ok State has played 4 games over 69. Ok State also likes to run(which is conducive to shorter games). I'll take a chance that somebody on defense will makes a few stops. (Lose 49-33)

SOUTH FLORIDA PK over Oregon teased with SF/Oregon UNDER 57.5--------Dixon missing from Oregon makes them unqualified to play in a bowl. Oregon lost 16-0 to sorry UCLA and then lost 31-38 to Oregon State while TAKING A +2 ON THE TURNOVER RATIO AND GETTING OUTGAINED BY 130 YARDS. Oregon's replacement QB's have zero passing skill so Oregon must try to run. And SF has a pretty good run defense, having beaten Central Florida(a running team) 64-12, so I dont see how Oregon scores much. (Lose by 19.5 and 35......jesus this SF team is shit)

SOUTH FLORIDA -6 over Oregon(Lose 56-21)

Sunday, December 30, 2007

VIKINGS -3 over Denver------------Vikings are still playing for something and have blown out some decent teams. They were -3 on the TO ratio in their loss to Washington last week so I see that as somewhat of a fluke. Denver is weak; they've been blown out 6 times and have a very rushable defense and rushing is Minnesota's stregth. Petersen was shut down by both the Redskins and 49ers, but both those teams have decent rushing defenses. (Lose 22-19.....Vikings give 3 turnovers; Darkie-QB-in-a-big-game dooms this bet)

ALABAMA -4 over Colorado--------Coming off 4 losses, I see some extra motivation here for Alabama. They had a horrible 2-9 ATS season, but their conference has alot of good teams. Colorado, shockingly, beat Oklahoma as a 23 point underdog but then lost to Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri(a blowout) and even Iowa State. They got a +4 on the TO ratio in beating Texas Tech 31-26 and then gave up 51 points to Nebraska(a terrible team) while taking a +3 on the TO ratio in getting the win. I see some weakness in Colorado. (Win 30-24)

Boston Lakers OVER 199 (197.5) REST3(Win 110-91)

Saturday, December 29, 2007

Toronto Houston OVER 182.5 (191) REST2 (Lose 91-79)
New Jersey Milwaukee OVER 192.5 (192.5) REST2 (Lose 97-95)
Charlotte Orlando OVER 199 (197) REST2 (Push 104-95)
Miami Washington OVER 198 (196) REST2 (Lose 96-74)
Atlanta Dallas UNDER 190 (194) REST5 (Win 97-84)
Detroit Indiana OVER 199 (198) REST2(Lose 98-92)

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Minnesota Golden State UNDER 209 (204.5) REST7 (Win 105-101)
Milwaukee Denver UNDER 208 (202) REST7 (Lose 125-105)
New Orleans Memphis UNDER 201.5 (198) REST8 (Lose 116-98)
Indiana Atlanta UNDER 200 (199) REST9(Lose 107-95)

Sunday, December 23, 2007

Denver Sacramento UNDER 209.5(204.5) REST6(Lose 106-105)

Saturday, December 22, 2007

Houston Chicago OVER 180 (188) REST3 (Win 116-98)
Utah Miami OVER 202.5 (199) REST3(Win 104-102)

Friday, December 21, 2007

Clippers Dallas UNDER 195 (195.5) REST5(Win 102-89)

Thursday, December 20, 2007

ST LOUIS +7.5 over Pittsburgh-------------I told you the Steelers were overrated after the Patriots game...and then they go and lose to Jacksonville GETTING OUTGAINED BY 200 YARDS. The Rams played the Packers well in the 1st half last game, then imploded in the 2nd half and got blown out. However, the Rams DID outgain the Packers by about 80 yards. Pitt is 1-5 ATS over their last 6 and if that isnt proof that they are overrated, I dont know what is. You get Home field, 7.5 points with this bet and my opinion that the Packers are WAY, WAY better than the Steelers. Rams could win this outright(Lose 41-24.....Pitt obviously got lucky with their long passes but how do the Rams collapse at home again after taking out Parker in the 1st quarter???! This team is shit)

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Utah Charlotte UNDER 197 (197.5) REST6 (Win 98-92)
Orlando Houston UNDER 192.5 (195) REST6 (Win 97-92)
New Orleans Seattle UNDER 191.5 (196) REST6 (Lose 107-93)
Philadelphia Indiana UNDER 203 (198) REST6(Win 102-85)

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Sacramento New Jersey UNDER 187.5 (193.5) REST6(Lose 106-101)

Sunday, December 16, 2007

*JETS +21 over New England----------The Patriots rush for only about 10 more yards per game than the Jets do. Their big advantage is their passing. With bad weather(and possibly really bad with freezing rain, snow etc), I like my chances (with 21 points) that Brady doesnt do anywhere near the amount of successful passing that he usually does. People talk about how the Pats want revenge for the Jets coach exposing their cheating scheme.....well, the Jets want revenge just as much because they have already LOST to the Patriots this year. (Win 20-10)

Carolina Seattle OVER 37.5------------Seattle has scored very well over their last 7 games and with both teams having decent rush defenses, I see no reason to not expect just as many passing attempts as these teams have been putting up all year. I think there's two reasons this number is low: Testaverde is questionable and these teams have played only 11 OVERS and 15 UNDERS this year. I'll take the good number and bet on more passing (Lose 13-10)

BALT -3.5 over Miami----------Miami's had too many chances; I tried them at home against the Jets and just utterly, utterly failed. The Dolphins suck, they've scored an average of less than 10 points per game over their last 6 while Baltimore has scored an average of 22 points per game over their last 4. If the score is 22-10, this bet wins easily. The Ravens were a highly anomalous MINUS 5 on the turnover ratio against Indy last week. That shit should not happen again. This line should be -7.5 (Lose 22-16)

JACKSONVILLE +9.5 over Pitt teased with Carolina/Seattle OVER 31.5-----------Pitt was exposed as overrated last week; their pass defense was a joke and they played like girly-men, failing to cover even the teased line. Their schedule HAS been weak and they proved, last week, that they are no match for good teams. Jacksonville is good, they've only lost twice by 10 or more but I'll take them on the teased line just because they're on the road here.(Lose by 8.5)

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Philadelphia Cleveland OVER 190.5 (193) REST2 (Lose 92-86)
Memphis Orlando OVER 208.5 (205) REST2 (Win 123-119)
Denver San Antonio UNDER 201.5 (201) REST5 (Win 102-91)
Sacramento Washington OVER 200.5 (201.5) REST3(Lose 92-79)

Friday, December 14, 2007

Atlanta Detroit UNDER 189 (189.5) REST5(Win 91-81)

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Chicago Indiana OVER 197.5 (197) REST2 (Win 117-102)
Dallas Toronto OVER 196.5 (198.5) REST3 (Lose 92-76)
Sacramento Boston UNDER 190.5 (196) REST6(Win 90-78)

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Seattle Chicago UNDER 189 (193.5) REST5(Lose 123-96....Bulls decide to score 12 more points in this game than their highest score in any game this year, shoot 13% better than their average and 18% better on 3's. What the fuck is up with that?)

Monday, December 10, 2007

Milwaukee Sacramento OVER 196.5 (200) REST3(Lose 96-93)

Sunday, December 09, 2007

BALTIMORE +9 over Colts-----------Ravens at home on tv at night again vs a top team. Obviously, they feel they should have beaten the Patriots......and they did, except for the stupid sideline timeouts on 4th down. And this "almost-win" was totally legitimate considering the Ravens WERE -1 ON THE TURNOVER RATIO and outgained the Patriots by 50 yards. I think with 9 points, its safe to assume that the Ravens motivational level will be similar in this game and their defense will do equally well. The Colts, described everywhere as an "injury-laden" team, have won only 1 of their last 5 games by more than 3 points and certainly don't need to blow out(or even beat) the Ravens because they are already 10-2. They would probably prefer to not get hurt anymore before the playoffs. (Lose 44-20.....5 unrequited turnovers given by the Ravens. Thanks you fucking idiots)

Jets Cleveland UNDER 47.5-----------Clemens is a 50% passer for the Jets and Anderson is a 57% passer. Those arent great odds to go to the air with those guys and considering that both teams' run defenses are bad, I think its worth a bet that they choose to run more than throw here. The Browns are well-known as a high-scoring-game type of team but this will probably be the coldest game that they've had to play in this year. AND, even in warmer weather, 5 of their games have gone below 47.5. The Jets can go very low with 6 of their games GOING BELOW 37.5. (Win 24-18)

MINNESOTA -2.5 over San Fran teased with PITTSBURGH +16.5 over New England-----------The 49ers have 50% passers and Gore......and Minnesota has a great run defense and an increasingly good pass defense. Coming off two blow-outs of decent/average teams, Minnesota now gets to play the worst team in football and I wouldnt be surprised if SF doesnt score any points. I see virtually no risk in that bet at -2.5. The risk with Pittsburgh is that they simply have not played a good team; their strength of schedule so far has included Seattle(they're decent).......and then two games each with the Bengals and the Browns. Pitt HAS ACTUALLY LOST in road games to Arizona(not good), Denver(bad), and the Jets(bad). However, their pass defense is very good statistically and NE's strength is Brady's passing. What has become apparent in NE's last two games is that NE's defense is not that extraordinary at this point in the season. And "the blueprint" of putting two guys on Moss and blitzing more should continue to prevent NE from blowing teams out. I'll give Pitt's D a chance here with this many points (Lose by 4.5.......PITTSBURGH PUSSIES! They cant get 1 fucking yard for a TD in two tries in the fourth quarter to cash this bet??!! Weak. The Pittsburgh pussies are weak)

Charlotte Detroit OVER 187.5 (191) REST3(Win 104-85)

Friday, December 07, 2007

Utah San Antonio UNDER 201.5 (200) REST5 (Lose 104-98.....8 points scored in the LAST 23 SECONDS to bust the under: Utterly sick.)
Miami Golden State OVER 209.5 (200.5) REST3(Win 120-113)

Thursday, December 06, 2007

WASHINGTON -3 over Bears-----------4 straight losses for Redskins, SECOND chance for them to redeem the legacy of Sean Taylor after a home loss last game. The motivation should definitely be there. Washington is 1-6 ATS going back, covering only against Dallas. They clearly should have beaten Tampa Bay 2 games ago when they gave A -6 ON THE TURNOVER RATIO and outgained them by 220 yards. The Bears, on the other hand, were given +4 TO's by the Giants and still lost the game. That is EXTREMELY rare where a team wins the turnover ratio by that much and still fails to win or cover and MUST indicate that the team is weak. And, yes, the Bears rush defense continues to get worse while Grossman raises his percentage slightly to 54%(Campbell is at 59%). The only thing that worries me about this bet is that Washington has only won 2 games by more than 3 points this year. However, they did crush the Lions 34-3........and the Lions, well, they beat the Bears twice. (Win 24-16)

Miami Portland UNDER 186 (186.5) REST6(Lose 112-106)

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Memphis Houston UNDER 203 (199.5) REST6 (Win 105-92)
Boston Philadelphia UNDER 180 (186) REST5 (Lose 113-103)
Phoenix Toronto OVER 208 (202.5) REST3 (Win 136-123)

Sunday, December 02, 2007

Golden State Seattle UNDER 218.5 (211) REST5(Win 109-96)
MIAMI -1.5 over Jets-------------Home-revenge for Miami as they were -1 TO and +180 yards in losing at the Jets earlier. Jets have 4 more days of rest coming in but Cotchery is out and Coles is "Questionable". Miami's defense has been excellent for the last 4 games. Home-off-road-loss motivation for Miami. Its time for them to get the ball to Ginn and start scoring. (Lose 40-13......Dolphins are a fucking joke)

KANSAS CITY +6 over San Diego-----------KC's new RB, Smith, definitely did well rushing for 150 yards last game and Huard should be back at QB. Sd going for revenge here but......they're on the road where they've gone 1-4 ATS this year. Their win against Indy was illegitimate due to being outgained by 200 yards and getting like 6 interceptions off Manning. They were +2 on the TO ratio against sorry Baltimore and were out gained by 300 yards against Minnesota. KC's defense is pretty good and should keep the game close if the TO ratio stays close (Lose 24-10......KC -3 on the turnover ratio. 2nd time this year I've had to say it: Chiefs fucking suck)

GIANTS -1.5 over Bears------------Bears defense is a lot worse this year; Grossman threw only about 50% last game and they only won the game against Denver because of Hester. Giants, I believe, are better than Denver and should improve from last week's -4 TO to Minnesota. Bears lost Benson for the season last game. (Win 21-16....Bears get 4 turnovers from the Giants and still lose at home. Giants could be really good if they didnt give so many TO's)

EAGLES -3(-120) over Seattle-----------Eagles home-off-road loss, almost beat a great team. Feeley has proven that he's better than Eagles should be better now. Alexander may be back for Seattle but I dont care; Seattle schedule has been too weak. The only decent teams they've played were Pitt and New Orleans(both losses) and, of course, they've gotten to play Stl and SF twice each. (Lose 28-24.....Sick, Feeley throws 4 pics. Eagles should have covered this easily)

CAROLINA -3 over 49ers------------After 5 straight losses, Carolina definitely should smell victory here. Gamble is coming back from injury for Carolina's defense and Sf's last game was a total fluke: SF was +4 on the TO ratio and got outgained by 180 yards. Carolina was -3 on the TO ration in their last loss to New Orleans (Win 31-14)

NEW ORLEANS -3 over Tampa-----------Home revenge for Saints who were -2 on the TO ratio in losing at Tampa. Bush is not even listed on the injury list so he should be ok while Garcia is "Questionable"(Lose 27-23......should have been a push at least. Saints get a safety with 3:44 to go in the game, get the ball back leading by 3, then Reggie Bush fumbles away the ball and the game with 3:30 to go. Despicable idiocy. McCown did really well at QB for Tampa.....or maybe New Orleans' defense just sucks)

Saturday, December 01, 2007

OREGON STATE +7.5 over Oregon teased with Oregon-Oregon State UNDER 48--------Oregon's QB's completed 11 out of 39 passing attempts against UCLA. That SUCKS! Dixon was probably Oregon's best passer AND its best rusher. With him out, I just dont see how Oregon can do much better THAN ZERO POINTS VS UCLA. OSU's rushing defense allows only 60-some yards per game. So Oregon's not gonna be able to rush much, and how are they gonna pass if they were 11/39 against UCLA?. Oregon has home-off-road-loss motivation and home-revenge.......but Oregon State is coming off a bye. OSU's QB is listed as "Doubtful", so they might run more. (Lose by 21.......Sick. 2 turnovers returned for TD's and then 2 OT's)

Toronto Washington OVER 195 (198) REST2 (Win 101-97)
Charlotte Chicago UNDER 181 (186) REST8(Lose 111-95)