BCLI SATURDAY STEAM

Purdue vs Wisconsin UNDER 56------Wisconsin knows that the only way they're gonna lose is if Painter, Purdue's QB, has a big day. They don't want a high scoring pass-pass score type of game. So i think they'll try to run more than usual. The Wisconsin pass defense appears extemely good only allowing 123 yds per game through the air. However, they have played Michigan and Auburn and nobody else good. They've put beatdowns on a lot of bad teams to puff up their scoring average(anomaly: they only scored 14 pts vs San Diego State). If you look at the best 3 teams Wisconsin has played(Auburn, Mich and Minnesota) the average points allowed against those 3 is about 16. That's a pretty good defense. Purdue's defensive stats are terrible, but Im betting that in this game, coming home to a big game in which they have a real chance to beat a good team, the defense will have prepared well enough to give a good effort and not quit. 56 is a big number and there's a lot of ways for this to go under. Purdue's d gets a stop, crowd pumps up its momentum. And even if Wisconsin gets up 14-0, they will DEFINITELY run every chance they get to shorten the game and keep Painter off the field.

Oregon vs Washington State UNDER 52------First of all, its been 5 games since WSU played a game in which 52 points were scored. High scoring Cal scored only 21 against WSU. At home, with a chance for a win, I expect the WSU defense, a good one, to be very formidable. Oregon's pass defense is much better than its rush defense so WSU may choose to run a lot. Ok let's look at WSU's offense: 14 points vs Auburn, 17 pts vs Baylor, 13pts vs Oregon State??? dont they suck? And of course 3 pts vs Cal. Oregon does score high, but if the WSU defense(on an educated guess I'd say the best Oregon has faced) can gain any kind of control of this game, this should be an easy under.

Mississippi +21.5(-130) over Arkansas------Wo! buy 1 point and you get 3 td's? I think that's too many points. Statistically, maybe its warranted, but this is a conference game. Based on who these teams have played.....well, lets look at Arkansas vs Vanderbilt: 21-19 WON. Miss vs Vandy: 17-10 WON. ok, they look equal on the vandy metric. Alabama? 23-26 and 24-23. not much difference. Miss vs Georgia: 9-14 LOSS. For Miss to not cover here, Ark needs to really blow them out but im not seeing too many blowouts for Arkansas. Ark vs Utah State: 20-0. not too big. ok, 63-7 vs Southeast Missouri state last game but isnt SEM too weak to count? Dont think Arkansas can pass well enough to get the blowout. 3 td's is 3 td's.

Georgia -17.5 over Miss State-------after 4 non-covers and losing to Vanderbilt last game, I'm betting Georgia will be mad enough to run up the score enough to cover. Against Tennesse, Georgia proved they CAN score against a good team and Mississippi State is not one. MSU has been blown out by LSU, West Virginia and Auburn, 3 good teams yes, but MSU has also lost outright to Tulane. Tulane?! I think Georgia has the defense and the skills to do this, and I'm sure they have the motivation.

SC vs Vanderbilt UNDER 41-----if you throw out these teams' games against weak teams you have SC's scoring aveage at 14.5 and Vandy's average at 14. That equals 28 and the number is 41. Hmmmm, I think this is playable. You look at some of these scores: SC 15-0 vs Miss state, 0-18 vs Georgia. Vandy 7-27 vs Michigan, 10-13 vs Alabama, 10-17 vs Miss. the Defense is there and the offense isnt.

SMU +5 and SMU (+180) over East Carolina----Smu lost to UTEP 2 games ago but that was without their good QB Willis, a 70% passer who can also run, who will be going against a 57% passer. SMU's rush defense is good only allowing 86 yards per game vs EC's 193 yds per game. EC HAS beaten Virginia but they lost 10-31 last game to Tulsa, failing to cover by 18 points, and they appear to have 5 new injuries. Hmmmmmm, maybe SMU can win this game.

Ok, things are currently good here at BCLI so its time to get a little bit speculative:

Miss +26.5 teased with Georgia -11.5 teased with Vandy +9.5(+180)----Vandy may have a let down after their big win at Georgia and SC is off a bye. However, Vandy is 3-1 ATS this year on the road , only having played 3 home games(2 against markedly inferior teams). Perhaps Vandy will appear even better as they get more home games under their belt. And, of course, since SC and Vandy play low scoring games, 9.5 points looks good.

SMU +11 teased with Purdue UNDER 62(-110)

Miss +26.5 teased with Washington state UNDER 58(-110)

Miss +26.5 teased with SC UNDER 47 teased with SMU +11 teased with Georgia -11.5 teased with Wash State UNDER 58 teased with Purdue UNDER 62(+700)

Whew! that's like 11 hours of work....I better win something