Wednesday, November 07, 2007

BCLI 2006-2007 football discovery stats
Reasons for betting games and how they performed
Strength of Schedule(looking at the quality of the teams that a specific team has played)
22-12 (64.7%)

Good Specialty vs Good Specialty(Seeing that, for example, one team tends to do well on offense mainly by rushing, and they happen to be playing a team with an extraordinarily good rushing defense, and betting on the team with the good rushing defense)
11-6 (64.7%)

Home(playing a team because they are at home)
33-24 (57.89%)
Home after Loss
14-11 (56%)
Home after Bye week
5-1 (83%)

Few Home/Road games(Betting against a road team because it has not yet played many road games. Betting on a home team because it has not yet had the advantage of playing many home games)
5-3 (62.5%)

Good Rushing Defense(Betting OVER the total because you think teams will pass due to the strength of the other teams' rushing defenses)
12-4 (75%)
High Passing Attempts by QB(Betting OVER the total because the QB passes a lot)
Bad Passing Defense(Betting OVER the total because a team's passing defense is bad)
Bad Rushing Offense(Betting OVER the total because a teams rushing offense is so bad you think they will pass alot)
Must Pass After getting behind(Betting OVER the total because you think one team will fall behind quickly and by a lot and then have to pass)
High Passing Attempts Against(Betting OVER the total because a team has been being passed against alot)
0-2 (0%)

Away(BCLI generally avoids betting on road teams, but was successful on away bets due to having plenty of other evidence that the away team was the proper bet)
18-8 (69.2%)
Away after Bye Week
2-2 (50%)

UNDER the total betting: Good Passing Defense 3-0(100%); Bad Weather 2-0 (100%); Bad Rushing Defense 5-3 (62.5%); Good Defense in general 2-4 (33%); Low Passing Attempts by QB 2-1 (67%); Defensive Improvement at Home 2-1 (67%)

Injuries(Betting against a team because it has injuries)
9-10 (47.3%)
Injury to QB
5-4 (55.5%)

Revenge Motivation

Good/Bad ATS(Betting on or against a team due to how good they are against the spread)

Good/Bad Offense/Defense(using the quality of a team's offense or defense as a reason to bet on or against it)

Almost beat a Huge team last game(betting on a team that did extraordinarily well last game against a very good team but still didnt win)

Good/Bad on Road or at Home(Betting on road teams because they have done well on the road, et cetera)


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