Wednesday, November 07, 2007

BCLI 2006-2007 football discovery stats
Reasons for betting games and how they performed
Strength of Schedule(looking at the quality of the teams that a specific team has played)
22-12 (64.7%)

Good Specialty vs Good Specialty(Seeing that, for example, one team tends to do well on offense mainly by rushing, and they happen to be playing a team with an extraordinarily good rushing defense, and betting on the team with the good rushing defense)
11-6 (64.7%)

Home(playing a team because they are at home)
33-24 (57.89%)
Home after Loss
14-11 (56%)
Home after Bye week
5-1 (83%)

Few Home/Road games(Betting against a road team because it has not yet played many road games. Betting on a home team because it has not yet had the advantage of playing many home games)
5-3 (62.5%)

Good Rushing Defense(Betting OVER the total because you think teams will pass due to the strength of the other teams' rushing defenses)
12-4 (75%)
High Passing Attempts by QB(Betting OVER the total because the QB passes a lot)
3-2(60%)
Bad Passing Defense(Betting OVER the total because a team's passing defense is bad)
3-0(100%)
Bad Rushing Offense(Betting OVER the total because a teams rushing offense is so bad you think they will pass alot)
2-0(100%)
Must Pass After getting behind(Betting OVER the total because you think one team will fall behind quickly and by a lot and then have to pass)
2-0(100%)
High Passing Attempts Against(Betting OVER the total because a team has been being passed against alot)
0-2 (0%)

Away(BCLI generally avoids betting on road teams, but was successful on away bets due to having plenty of other evidence that the away team was the proper bet)
18-8 (69.2%)
Away after Bye Week
2-2 (50%)

UNDER the total betting: Good Passing Defense 3-0(100%); Bad Weather 2-0 (100%); Bad Rushing Defense 5-3 (62.5%); Good Defense in general 2-4 (33%); Low Passing Attempts by QB 2-1 (67%); Defensive Improvement at Home 2-1 (67%)

Injuries(Betting against a team because it has injuries)
9-10 (47.3%)
Injury to QB
5-4 (55.5%)

Revenge Motivation
4-4(50%)

Good/Bad ATS(Betting on or against a team due to how good they are against the spread)
3-2(60%)

Good/Bad Offense/Defense(using the quality of a team's offense or defense as a reason to bet on or against it)
4-1(80%)

Almost beat a Huge team last game(betting on a team that did extraordinarily well last game against a very good team but still didnt win)
2-1(67%)

Good/Bad on Road or at Home(Betting on road teams because they have done well on the road, et cetera)
3-1(75%)

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