Friday

Detroit +154(BCLI line +111) over Yankees and UNDER 9.5------Randy Johnson: 15 earned runs in his last 17 innings pitched, he's hurt, but they're gonna start him because.....1)he's big? 2) he has experience(he's no tom Glavine)? 3)they're paying him a shitload more than they are Wright or Karstens? I dont know, but I do know that Rogers has valuable experience and has had quite probably(i didnt check but..) his best season in his life. This guy shut down(on like 4 hits every time) the Chicago White Sox 3 times in a row late in the year. He's got stuff, he's got SOMETHING. The Yankees, of course, can hit. But as ive said before, Zumaya wont be hit, cant be hit, hasnt been hit. And he should get some MVP consideration(but of course middle men never get MVP). I think you can bet Detroit with confidence at this price and bet the under for less money for protection in case the Tigers dont hit(Pudge and Inge have not stepped up). Comerica Park has gone over the total 34 times and under 43 times this year. that's pretty significant considering they've already had to install a new fence making it easier to hit HR's because of low scoring there. Its still a difficult stadium to score runs in.

As far as the Twins, they suck and they cant hit. I gave them a chance to win for me with Bonser, and BONSER gave them a good chance to win. But they couldnt do it. The Dodgers? pathetic. they get a lhp to face and they score 1 whole run. Inconsistent offense, all fucking year. Lofton, Drew, not stepping up. My advice: Use Stults and Hendrickson if you make it to game 4.
Dodgers were a good pick yesterday, just didnt win. but BCLI did make a very bad pick yesterday with Cardinals OVER 8.5. That was picked forgetful of the fact THAT THE PADRES DONT HIT AND DONT SCORE. Its been that way all year with them. I guess i did it because i was worried Weaver might get hit because he's not really that good this year. But Padres......they've survived on Young, Peavy and their bullpen. You'd probably have done well betting padres under every game. Bottom line: Stupid BCLI pick. Now, you see im taking Under on Yankees and we know they hit. Rogers is no Weaver. lhb's are hitting about .200 vs Rogers and rhb's .268. And I have a hunch that the Yanks scored most of their runs this season off pitchers much more hittable than Zumaya.

As for the winner of the world series, I can tell you with 80% certainty that it will be an American League team. Lemme check if there's a contract for that.....no, not on TS. But if your sportsbook has a world series bet for AL team vs NL team, bet AL. The only intimidating players the NL has are Pujols and Delgado. Mets: don't think they'll do it having to use Trachsel and possibly Perez. Stl: not enough offense support behind Pujols.

Tale from the Crypt

I thought I'd buy 3 picks for $25 from Scott Spreitzer since he said i'd get a code to call for the next 4 days of his picks for free. His picks were
1)Utah TCU UNDER
2)Dodgers
3)Florida State

Ok, I thought, I'm gonna play the Dodgers anyway; I know that's a good pick. TCU Under looks ok due to injuries and weather. Florida State? One of the reasons I bought these picks is because a lot of handicappers were selling this FSU game. Hmmmm, maybe that's because there's a strong play here. I checked the stats and everything and neither team looked real good. I kind of expected Spreitzer's pick to be NC state +10. It wasnt. Thankfully, I didnt endorse this moronic FSU pick on my site. But I decided to play it anyway....maybe he knows something. Anyway, Spreitzer says his top play is the side on the TCU Utah game, and that the code that I got with the picks would get me that game for free. Ok, I can argue with boiler room neanderthals if I'm entitled to a free pick. So I called. "This game is guaranteed to cover by two touchdowns....This game goes for $500 in Vegas.....I'll get you a week of service for 4 and a half....."
Wait, I called for the free pick.
"The free picks are computer generated, they're 50-50. That's not what you want."
After some more arguing, I said, "are you gonna give me Utah.....?"
"no, no i cant give you that game....(blah, blah, blah)"
I was aware of the extreme line movement from TCU -2.5 to Utah -3 from reading Covers.com. And the injuries. I had already made a small bet on Utah thinking the line might move more and I'd better get in then. Anyway, I finally got him to give me the play:
"you want the free play? its TCU...but that's not what we're playin'"
I made him give me the play again at the end of the argument. Again, it was TCU. So now I was a little confused. They're starting an injured qb and the 3rd string running back....and they are on the road. I decided to leave it at that and just keep my small bet on Utah.
Today I get a call from the same guy: "Did you have NC state and under? (blah) (blah) (blah)"
I stopped him and said, "where'd you get NC State?" He seemed to be trying to imply that Spreitzer or "we" as he said had had NC State(which won) and the under(which lost). He fumbled over his words as I informed him that Spreitzer had sold me Florida State. He then told me about 'action' plays and 'information' plays. The picks I had bought were the action plays. I said, "if Spreitzer tries to claim on his website that he had NC State, he's done in the business...I'll fucking bury him with scam evidence." This guy seemed to be trying to find a way to tell me some game that 'they' had won but the reality was clear: Spreitzer had lost with road favorite Florida State, he'd lost with the Dodgers, he'd won with TCU Under and I'd heard TCU come out of this guy's own mouth and most likely, that meant that Spreitzer had lost with TCU. I had paid $25 to get picks that went 1-3(2 of which were of such low quality that no respectable handicapper would've ever signed off on them unless he was desperate to sell as many games as possible) and this guy was calling me trying to sell me a week of service(for "2 and a half"--200 dollars cheaper than yesterday).
"We're not a soup kitchen....I dont work for free....I've got guys that come in here and give me $500 for these games."
I told him Bill Gates wouldnt pay $500 for a game AND that I'd already contribted $25 to buy the noodles for his soup kitchen. In the end, he wouldnt give me the picks for tomorrow, even though they were supposed to be free and he couldnt identify the game that was guaranteed to cover by 2 touchdowns(there were only two football games and Spreitzer had apparently lost them both). And that's a tale from the crypt of Scott Spreitzer's Smash Mouth Sports.