Tuesday, July 31, 2007

BCLI line (official line)

Det--Verlander -120 (-105) (The Man--Haren)
Minn--Silva -120 (-140) (The Man)
TB--Jackson -105 (+110) (The Man--Litsch)
Lad--Penny -155 (-168) (BCLI--Lowry)

Monday, July 30, 2007

KC(Meche) +110 (BCLI line KC -110) over Minn(Baker)-------Royals are hot and Twins are not. Royals have scored 6 or more runs in each of their last 4 games while Twins have scored 4 or fewer in their last 4. Baker is a hittable pitcher, usually, and Meche is very consistent.(Lose 3-1....Meche did HIS job)

Sunday, July 29, 2007

FLORIDA(Mitre) -109 (BCLI line -155) over Sf(Morris)-------------Morris is pathetic, this game is Florida's to win. Mitre actually is better (.254) vs lhb's. Giants slugging percentage down to .383 while Marlins slug .447. Line is way wrong. (Win 8-5)

PHILADELPHIA(Kendrick) -134 (BCLI line -140) over Pitt(Snell)----------Snell has had 3 bad starts in a row....could be getting tired. Kendrick has done well and rhb's hit only .216 off him...and Pitt bats right. Utley is out for Phillies, but with their offense having scored 10, 8, 6, 7 runs per game going back, I cant ignore them here. (Win 5-1)

MILWAUKEE(Gallardo) -130 (BCLI line -160) over Stl(Wells)------------Gallardo simply too good. Brewers still slugging 50 points higher than Stl. (Lose 9-5.....Can you believe this shit? Brewers out hit them 14 to 11 and leave 21 ON BASE! Turnbow comes in in the 8th to lose it. Brewers are fucking pathetic right now.)

BALT(Cabrera) +160 (BCLI line +131) over Nyy(Wang) (Lose 10-6)
Balt +1.5(+100) over Nyy----------------Orioles have scored 23 runs over their last 3 and they rocked Wang recently.......take a chance on Cabrera here at this price. (Lose 10-6.....Orioles out hit them 15 to 14 as their bullpen gets destroyed.....they could have won this)

ATL(Hudson) -135 (BCLI line -140) over Az(Hernandez)-----------Looks like Gerry Davis will be home plate ump. His strike zone is on the small side....13 out of 20 of his games have gone OVER. Diamondbacks are getting lucky, they havent hit anybody nearly as good as Hudson on their winning streak(Win 14-0....Correct. Davis was HP ump and Hernandez got killed)

Friday, July 27, 2007

CUBS(Hill) -118 (BCLI line -135) over Cin(Arroyo)----------Hill has shut Cin down once....should be an uphill battle for Reds as batters hit .283 off Arroyo this year(he's just not the same as before) and Cubs.....I like 'em. Jacques Jones is improving, I expect a big game from him. And Reds only hit .233 vs lhp's (Lose 5-4.....Wrong! Jacques Jones literally lost this game by himself by going 0 for 4 and not being able to score from 2nd on a hit up the middle in the 9th.....pathetic bat flailing by the Cubs)

ARIZONA(Petit) -120 (BCLI line -145) over Atl(Reyes) (Win 8-7)
AZ -1.5 (+160) over Atl---------------Petit is red hot and Reyes......is a totally unproven rookie. I think you can overlook Az's low average vs lhp's here considering how they brutalized Olsen 2 games ago. AZ has averaged almost 8 runs per game over their last 3 and Atlanta........ummm, not so good (Lose 8-7......7 run lead almost totally blown by AZ)

BALT(Guthrie) +128 (BCLI line Balt -125) over Nyy(Pettitte)-----------Guthrie has handled the Yanks well once. And Gutrie is just so much harder to hit than Pettitte this year. Gotta take this. Oh, and Balt has scored 16 runs in their last 2 games(Win 4-2)

Thursday, July 26, 2007

BOSTON(Gabbard) -110 (BCLI line -130) over Cleve(Lee)-------I should have bet Lester....I knew Cleveland was overrated when Jackson blew them out. But here you have a matchup that's just as good: Lee has allowed an incredible 19 earned runs in his last 15 innings while Gabbard has allowed ONLY 9 HITS in his last 22 innings (Win 14-9)

SF(Lincecum) -126 (BCLI line -117) over Atl(Carlyle)---------Lincecum has been very strong lately.....he must have fixed something....only 19 hits in his last 34 innings. Considering that, and considering that lhb's hit .321 off Carlyle and SF has many switch hitters, I think you can go with the Giants here. Lincecum strikes people out and the Braves have one of the highest strikeout totals in the National league(3rd highest behind Cincinatti and Florida I think). This is largely because of Andrew Jones' incredible 99 K's(1 for every 4 plate appearances).(Win 4-2)

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Minn(Silva) vs Tor(Litsch) OVER 9.5(-105)------------Both pitchers hittable......Toronto has scored well its last 3 games and got 5 runs off Silva last meeting. Minn is not scoring very well but they did rock Litsch may 25th and considering this is a day game(batters see the ball better in sunlight), i think 9.5 is a reasonable number to go over. (Win 13-1)

CUBS(Lilly) -104 (BCLI line Cubs -120) over Stl(Wainwright)----------Cubs murdered Wainwright twice in April and Lilly handled Stl well April 20th. Wainwright has had 3 good starts in a row but Lilly is having a great year.....all year, all good (Win 7-1)

BCLI line (official line)

SD---Germano -110 (+120) (The Man---Cook)
Mets--Glavine -155 (-165) (The Man)
Lad--Lowe -160 (-140) (The Man--Albers)
Az--Webb -153 (-170) (The Man)

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

MIL(Gallardo) -133 (BCLI line -175) over Cin(Belisle)-------Reds have scored only 8 runs over their last 4 games. Brewers arent scoring as well as they are capable of, but they're doing better than Cincinatti. Belisle was, of course, ripped by Milwaukee on April 17th and is a bad pitcher. Gallardo has been excellent (Win 5-3)

ATL(Hudson) -129 (BCLI line -160) over Sf(Morris)----------Morris has allowed 50 hits in his last 27 innings. That's quite enough to make this bet (Win 7-5)

Cubs(Zambrano) -138 (BCLI line -147) over Stl(Wells)------------Wells is kind of a wild card here....he's very erratic. Altho the Cubs have only scored 2 runs in their last 2 games, they were ripping before that. And rhb's hit only .163 off Zambrano. He's pretty reliable and did well vs Stl on April 28th (Win 4-3)

BCLI line (official line)

Phi--Kendrick -165 (-153) (BCLI)
Lad---Hendrickson -140 (-102) (The Man--Jennings)
Fla--Mitre -140 (-104) (The Man--Hernandez)

Sunday, July 22, 2007

SEATTLE(Hernandez) +125 (BCLI line Sea -135) over Tor(Halladay)---------There is simply no way you can favor Toronto here when they have averaged less than 2 runs scored per game over their last 5 games. Hernandez has gotten hit this year but he still has a great fastball, he's getting better and rhb's hit worse vs him (.269) and Toronto bats right and he does K people. Halladay is hittable (.280) and Seattle recently hit him well. Bottom line: Blue Jays offense way too weak right now(in my opinion they've sucked all year) for this number (Lose 8-0...unreal)

TAMPA(Shields) +179 (BCLI line -105) over Nyy(Pettitte) (Lose 21-4)
Tampa +1.5(-125) over Nyy-----------------Tampa's offense is getting on track.....batters hit .290 off Pettitte this year.....Tampa looking good at .277 vs lhp's. despite the fact that Yanks scored 5 off Shields recently, he IS a very good pitcher this year, you have to give him respect and this line sure as hell isnt (Lose 21-4.....No, Shields is a bum. He's got only an 88mph fastball. Not touching Shields again....this is pathetic)

BALT(Guthrie) +100 (BCLI line Balt -155) over Oak(Braden) (Win 2-0)
Balt vs Oak UNDER 9(-115)---------------Guthrie gets respect, A's offense does not (Win 2-0)

Sf(Zito) vs Mil(Vargas) OVER 9(-105)-----------Gotta take an over in one of these day games. Giants offense coming on a bit(tho they fundamentally suck) with 24 runs in last 3 games. Brewers have hit Zito once, therefore they can do it again.(Win 7-5....should have employed this logic as in, Yankees have hit Shields once, therefore they can do it again)

Saturday, July 21, 2007

COLORADO(Lopez) -116 (BCLI line -140) over Wash(Bacsik)-------Rockies up to .280 vs lhp's....Bacsik hittable and Lopez has done some good starts this year. (Lose 3-0......unbelievably weak performance by Rockies offense.....how do you lose to Washington?)

ATL(Carlyle) -133 (BCLI line -160) over Stl(Looper)-----Rhb's hit only .183 off Carlyle and Stl's best hitters bat right, in fact, I would call Stl a right hand hitting team. Carlyle is cruising along.....not too many problems. Looper has been getting worse, batters hit .273 off him (Win 14-6)

DET(Verlander) -1.5 (-125) over Kc(De La Rosa)------------tho De La Rosa sometimes does good, he has been destroyed by many teams this year including the Tigers, A's, Orioles, Mil, Fla, Phil. Regardless of how many runs the Royals scored yesterday, I think there's too good of a chance that Verlander will shut down Kc and Detroit will hit well vs De La Rosa(Det now at .298 vs lhp's)(Win 10-8....thank god for Brandon Inge)

Friday, July 20, 2007

SEATTLE(Batista) +100 (BCLI line Sea -150) over Tor(Litsch) (Win 4-2)
BALT(Bedard) +100 (BCLI line Balt -127) over Oak(Blanton) (Win 6-1)
CUBS(Marquis) +100 (BCLI line Cubs -150) over Az(Webb) (Win 6-2)
SD(Germano) -129 (BCLI line -154) over Phi(Eaton) (Loss 7-3)

BCLI line (official line)

Cin--Lohse -109 (+126) (The Man---Olsen)
Col--Cook -145 (-129) (BCLI)
Hou--Oswalt -134 (-110) (BCLI)
Laa--Lackey -150 (-130) (The Man---Silva)
Det---Rogers -197 (-173) (The Man--Meche)

Thursday, July 19, 2007

*LAD(Lowe) -122 (BCLI line -173) over Mets(Glavine)----------I saw the Mets yesterday, I bet on the Mets yesterday and I was disgusted. Just absolutely disgusted. Enough said about that. Dodgers have scored modestly their last 2 games, but before that they were really scoring. They hit well, .286 vs lhp's. Glavine's last 4 games out of 5 were good, but he did good vs Houston, Cin, Stl, Oak. Four weak offenses. Right now, I believe the Dodgers are a strong offense. Price way too cheap to go against the PATHETIC met offense (Lose 13-9.........Ok, lets see, Lowe allows 6 runs in his first game and 4 runs in 4 of his other starts and then LESS than 4 runs in the remaining 75% of the rest of his starts. But in THIS game he allows 6 runs in the FIRST INNING. Disgustingly anomalous.)

MIL(Gallardo) -155 (BCLI line -150) over Az(Hernandez) (Win 10-1)
Mil -1.5 (+125) over Az-----------------------------------------------Hernandez is a questionable pitcher who lives on the corners of the plate. He needs to get close pitches called strikes by the umpire. The probable home plate umpire, Lance Barksdale, I suspect, will not be giving Hernandez the close pitches. Barksdale has a low called strike percentage and games have gone OVER 12 times out of 19 when he has been home plate umpire. Altho Milwaukee has not been scoring well lately, Gallardo is a good looking rookie and has much more talent than Hernandez. And, of course, the Brewers are a much more talented offense. (Win 10-1.....actually Poncino was the home plate ump in this game)

CUBS(Lilly) -160 (BCLI line -180) over Sf(Morris) (Win 9-8)
Cubs -1.5 (+135) over Sf-------------------Morris has allowed just about 1 earned run PER INNING PITCHED over his last 25 innings pitched. Lilly is clearly superior......the Giants offense is clearly inferior. (Lose 9-8.....Bonds hits 3 run HR to bust this one)

CWS(Vazquez) +185 (BCLI line +147) over Bos(Matsuzaka) (Win 4-2)
Cws +1.5 (-120) over Bos------------------Matsuzaka.....10 earned runs in his last 11 innings......Whitesox surging offensively, hitting pitchers you wouldnt expect them to. Red sox offense getting shut down A LOT lately by pitchers they should hit. And Vazquez, having an excellent season and could easily shut any team down(and usually does). (Win 4-2)

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

*METS(Maine) -110 (BCLI line -165) over Sd(Maddux)-----------This line is a joke. Maddux has just thrown 3 sick, pathetic games and the Padres offense is just as sick. Batters hit .290 for the season off Maddux and below .220 off Maine. With 7 runs yesterday(beating Peavy!), it is high time the Mets offense returned to their authentic selves. And they will in this game as they destroy Maddux. (Lose 5-4......The score was closer than the game: The Mets offense FUCKING SUCKS. If Arizona can get 9 hits and 4 runs off Maddux and Florida can get 10 hits and 6 runs off Maddux and Atlanta can get 6 hits and 5 runs off Maddux.......you're telling me the Mets can only get 4 HITS AND ZERO RUNS OFF MADDUX??!! the Mets used to be, THIS YEAR, like, the best or 2nd best offense in baseball. Now, they are a joke.)

*TAMPA(Kazmir) -113 (BCLI line -148) over Laa(Colon)-----------Rays are ripping......FINALLY. 8, 6, 4, 6 runs per game over their last 4. Colon has sucked this year with batters hitting .323 off him(THREE-TWENTY-THREE!). And the Angels inability to take walks is gonna hurt them against Kazmir because he DOES walk people. And, of course, the line is way wrong (Win 7-2)

BALT(Bedard) +104 (BCLI line -105) over Sea(Washburn)-----------Batters hit about 50 points lower (.200) vs Bedard than they do against Washburn. Orioles have scored 5 or more runs in 4 of their last 6 games. Mariners have scored 5 or more runs in only 2 of their last 6. On June 2nd, Baltimore rocked Washburn and I think they'll do well against him again. Bedard is K-ing the heck out of people.(Pitching Change to Cabrera)

DETROIT(Miller) +179 (BCLI line +115) over Minn(Santana)---------Tigers better vs lhp's and Miller was very impressive vs Boston. Im taking this mostly for price because Santana has done well vs Det recently and Minn did hit Miller once recently(Win 3-2)

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

CUBS(Marshall) -145 (BCLI line -170) over Sf(Zito)------------I played Zito last start and he absolutely embarrassed me. This guy throws 80mph on his fastball and walks people beyond belief. Giants offense is sick and Im happy to take Marshall at this price (Lose 4-2)

NYY(Pettitte) -125 (BCLI line -170) over Tor(Halladay)-----------I hate Toronto so much so maybe I'm biased. They hit well vs lhp's but.......look at yesterday: They got 12 hits and 5 walks......and SPECTACULARLY ONLY SCORED 4 RUNS! That is an offensive sickness, it indicates holes in the lineup and lack of desire. Pettitte went against the Bluejays on May 29th and pitched 7inn 6hits 1run 1walk and TOOK THE LOSS! If Pettitte can do that once to them, he can do it again. Stats prove that. Yanks are scoring well now and Halladay is hittable this year(.280+) (Win 3-2)

TAMPA(Shields) +100 (BCLI line Tampa -130) over Laa(Santana)---------If you want to see how bad Santana is, look at this: the Angels winning percentage is .600, but Santana is 5-10 for a winning percentage of .333. Tampa scored pretty well against the Yankees and Shields is too good for his team to let him down here at home (Win 8-3)

CWS(Garland) +145 (BCLI line +105) over Cleve(Byrd) (Lose 6-5)
Cws vs Cleve OVER 9.5(-115)------------------------I think that Cleveland is overrated but i also think they have a chance to hit Garland's heavy ball. The whitesox offense is improving....they rocked Lee yesterday and Guthrie before that. Byrd is hittable(Win 6-5)

BALT(Guthrie) +150 (BCLI line +120) over Sea(Hernandez)------------Orioles did hit Hernandez last meeting and Guthrie has been much harder to hit this year than Felix(Win 8-3)

Monday, July 16, 2007

DODGERS(Penny) -155 (BCLI line -162) over Phi(Moyer) (Win 10-3)
Dodgers -1.5 (+135) over Phi--------------LAD has gone 5, 8, 9, 9 runs per game over last 4 games and they've raised their average against lhp's to .286. I think the Dodgers have a special talent for hitting low pitches so they could rock Moyer. With Penny, good chance for a near shutout. (Win 10-3)

Toronto(Towers) vs Nyy(Igawa) OVER 10.5 (-120)------------Blue jays hitting .292 vs lhp's which is MUCH better than they do against right handers. Igawa has been getting hit by some pretty poor teams( TB, Balt, Oakland, SF) and he walks people. Many intelligent handicappers will be taking Toronto to win the game but I cant. Toronto has screwed me too many times. Yanks seem to be scoring pretty well and altho Towers just pitched 8 innings vs Cleveland.......I dont think he can do that well again. Not vs the Yankees. (Lose 6-4.....Toronto got 12 hits and 5 walks and 3 HOME RUNS.....and they only scored 4 runs! To see how pathetic this is, lets look at every other team that scored 4 runs today. Boston and Washington had 7 hits 0 walks each. Milwaukee had 7 hits 2 walks. Seattle had 10 hits 2 walks. So thats 7, 7, 9 and 12 walks + hits and each team scored exactly 4 runs. TORONTO HAD 17 WALKS + HITS. Cleveland, which had a comparable number of walks + hits (16), SCORED 10 RUNS! This is just more evidence that Toronto has no heart, no desire.....they just dont fucking care.)

HOUSTON(Williams) -107 (BCLI line -121) over Wash(Bacsik)-----------Extremely cheap line to go against Wash. Williams has just pitched 3 good games and Astros specialize in hitting lhp's(.277). Both teams suck, but Astros woke up yesterday ripping Marquis (Lose 4-3...another pathetic offensive effort by the Astros, but home plate umpire John Hirshbeck made two RIDICULOUSLY bad calls making Scott and Biggio strikeout looking in the 9th. Roberto Alomar was right.....)

Kc(Bannister) vs Bos(Gabbard) UNDER 10.5 (-115)------------Gabbard shut down Detroit last start and I cant sleep on that. Gabbard is good to me until he proves otherwise. Bannister is also too good to ignore (Win 4-0)

BCLI line (official line)

Fla--Kim -144 (-114) (The Man--Looper)
Mil---Bush -174 (-153) (BCLI)
Mets--Sosa -125 (+100) (The Man--Wells)
Bos---Gabbard -177 (-165) (BCLI)
Sea---Ramirez -115 (-130) (The Man)

Sunday, July 15, 2007

ATLANTA(Carlyle) -154 (BCLI line -160) over Pitt(Maholm) (Win 5-1)
Atl -1.5 (+135) over Pitt--------------Rhb's hitting only .191 off Carlyle and Pitt is mostly a right handed team. Maholm has lasted 7inn in his last few games but he is not strong vs rhb's. they hit .290 off him and Braves bat mostly right. (Win 5-1)

CUBS(Marquis) -125 (BCLI line -150) over Hou(Rodriguez) (Win 7-6)
Cubs -1.5 (+165) over Houston---------------Cubs ROCKED Oswalt yesterday and if you can hit him, you can hit Rodriguez. Despite a .242 team batting average against lhp's, the Cubs' best hitters do well vs lhp's. Lee...above .300 vs lhp's, Aramis Ramirez..... .367 vs lhp's, DeRosa....above .300 vs lhp's and Soriano hits .289 vs lhp's. Jacques Jones, on the Cubs worst hitters this year, probably will be benched which will help them. This line is low because Wandy has allowed no earned runs in his last 16 innings. So what?, i say. The Astros are one of the worst teams in baseball having won only 2 more games than the Nationals. The Cubs are at home, playing for something because they are only 3 games out of the Wild Card, and Marquis should be able to handle this pathetic Astro offense. (Lose 7-6.....Marquis is now questionable)

DETROIT(Verlander) -144 (BCLI line -160) over Sea(Weaver)------------Now, we're gonna test the new hypothesis(constructed by BCLI's statistical compilation) that pitchers tend to NOT get revenge. Weaver has only allowed 3 earned runs in his last 27 innings(thats why the line is a bit low). BUT, he was recently rocked by the Tigers. THUS, they should rock him again and he has, based on the stats, only a 36% chance of having a good start. On top of that, the teams that Weaver just shut down.......3 of them suck. Pitt, Toronto and Oakland are garbage offenses. Detroit is the best offense and probably the ONLY offense that has consistently NOT let BCLI down this year. They are certainly the only offense that i fully respect. Weaver also does not walks people and Detroit is a swing-away team(Win 11-7)
Pitcher Revenge, Team Revenge and Pitcher Redemption

I have been wondering, for several years, what it means, if anything, to see that a pitcher is facing a team that he has 1) recently done well against or 2) recently done poorly against. And also, what does it mean when a pitcher, who usually does pretty well, is pitching immediately after having done poorly? This year, I've been keeping track as much as possible.
In "Team Revenge" situations, where a particular pitcher is facing a team THAT HE HAS RECENTLY DONE WELL AGAINST, the stats are:

48 Good 22 Bad 16 Neutral (56% chance of Good) (74% chance of Not Bad)

In "Pitcher Revenge" situations, where a particular pitcher is facing a team THAT HE HAS RECENTLY DONE POORLY AGAINST, the stats are:

20 Good 23 Bad 13 Neutral (36% chance of Good) (59% chance of Not Bad)

In "Redemption" situations, where a pitcher has done poorly his last start, the stats are:

63 Good 48 Bad 18 Neutral (48% chance of Good) (62% chance of Not Bad)

Certainly, I havent tabulated every single one of these situations, but I did get enough to form an important picture. My theory, which was that, considering how in football it is a common occurrence to see a team do terrible one week and then come back the next to win or at least cover, perhaps it was the case that pitchers and offenses could make adjustments after failure as football teams do. However, the stats above state that, if all other things are equal(of course they're not but...), it is worth assuming that if a team has rocked a pitcher once, they are more likely to do it again. And if a pitcher has shut down a team once, he's more likely to do it again. And however much a pitcher WANTS to redeem himself after a bad outing, he only has about a 48% chance of doing good in his next start.
So it seems that I havent discovered that much. But maybe I have.....
If you look at the entry below, where BCLI took Oakland against Silva and the Twins, you'll see how I mentioned that the A's were a left hand hitting team, and left handers were hitting .330 off Silva. And, in fact, Silva is one of the most hittable pitchers in all of baseball having given up about 133 hits in 116 innings.
True, the A's had been scoring poorly, but the fact remained: Silva was a hittable pitcher and especially by lhb's. So what happened?
The A's got only 2 hits off Silva. ONLY 2 HITS!
Silva has allowed 7 or more hits in 11 of his 19 starts. He has never, until this game against the A's, allowed as few as 2 hits in a start. He's never allowed as few AS 3 HITS in a start! But the point is that, on June 2nd, Silva HAD SHUT DOWN THE A'S. He pitched 8 innings, gave up 5 hits and allowed only 1 run. It was 1 of only 2 starts this year in which he had lasted as many as 8 innnings. Evidence that if a pitcher beats a team once, there is probably some characteristic about that pitcher which will allow him to beat that team again, DESPITE the fact that the team wants revenge.

Saturday, July 14, 2007

OAK(Blanton) -105 (BCLI line -112) over Minn(Silva)-----------A's on a long, low scoing losing streak. Today is the day to break out. Blanton has shut down the Twins recently and is going for redemption after a bad rocking last start against the Mariners. Silva, strangely, actually did well vs the A's last meeting with them. However, Silva is not a good pitcher(Blanton is); he's given up 5 runs in each of his last 3 starts, he's hittable and lhb's hit .330 off him. That's my best reason for liking this bet: The heart of the A's order bats left handed. A's MUST win this game to recover any self-respect. (Lose 4-3.....Oakland is shit, garbage and feeble. everybody else in baseball has hit Silva, but not the A's. Fuck Oakland)

Tex(Loe) vs Laa(Lackey) UNDER 8.5 (+100)--------------Loe has had 5 excellent starts. He must have changed something......and now its working great. He has recently beaten Boston and Detroit, shutting them down almost completely. Both teams are scoring PHENOMENALLY poorly of late. So I'll take the Under and not Texas. (Lose 9-5......Angels score 4 runs in their last 3 games and then this. Loe, what the fuck? You walk 5 in less than 3 innings. That 14% of your total walks for the season! In less than 3 innings, against one of the worst walking teams in baseball. This garbage is so fucking anomalous)

WASHINGTON(Chico) +153 (BCLI line +160) over Fla(Mitre)-----------Chico is impoving. His last 19 innings he only gave up 14 hits. Mitre, however, is in decline.....like 41 hits in his last 31 innings after starting out very well. Washington is breaking out offensively as well, going 14, 7, 5 runs per game. Flordia does hit .281 off lhp's but I'll fade that; Chico is good here. (Lose 5-2)

Sd(Young) vs Az(Hernandez) UNDER 9(-125)-----------Padres offense is a joke. They cant even beat Doug FUCKING Davis??!!! Two pathetic offenses and Young, a shutout pitcher. 9 is high in the NL.....I expect a 2-1 game from these PIECE OF GARBAGE teams. (Push 5-4......Heath Bell, you goddam piece of shit. Young allows only 2 hits over 6 inning and Bell comes in, gives up 5 fucking hits and 3 runs while only getting one batter out. THIS SHIT FROM THE BEST BULLPEN IN BASEBALL! Oh, and it loses the game as well as depriving BCLI of a sorely deserved win. I can believe how bad some of these idiot pitchers suck)

Tor(McGowan) vs Bos(Matsuzaka) UNDER 9.5 (+100)------------I like what I've seen of Mcgowan. He could become a great pitcher. Matsuzaka going for redemption. Blue Jays offense always bad vs rhp's. Somebody could get shutout here. (Lose 9-4.....McGowan sucks. I was wrong about THAT FUCKING DUMBASS)

TAMPA(Sonnanstine) +185 (BCLI line +124) over Nyy(Wang) (Lose 6-4)
Tampa +1.5 (+120) over Nyy----------------This line is too big. Sonnanstine only walks 1 every 7.5 innings. (Lose 6-4)

BCLI line (official line)

SD---Young -150 (-135) (The Man--Hernandez)
Balt----Cabrera -128 (-109) (BCLI)
Bos---Matsuzaka -159 (-210) (The Man)
Laa---Lackey -163 (-220) (The Man)

Friday, July 13, 2007

PADRES(Maddux) -103 (BCLI line Padres -126) over Az(Davis)---------Cameron hits .357 vs lhp's; Davis is like .295 BA against and he walks more than 1 every 2 innings. SD a little better vs lhp's; AZ's offense sux pretty bad. Padres have #1 bullpen in baseball, Az's bullpen is about #12. I think this price is good (Lose 8-3......Padres are FUCKING GARBAGE. You cant hit Davis, you cant hit PERIOD.)

DETROIT(Bonderman) -115 (BCLI line -110) over Sea(Washburn)---------Tigers at .304 vs lhp's. Tigers take more walks than Seattle and out slug them by over 40 points.(Win 6-3)

Thursday, July 12, 2007

BOSTON(Wakefield) -114 (BCLI line -155) over Tor(Halladay)------I dont agree with this line. Batters are hitting .280 off Halladay this year and only .250 off Wakefield. Halladay's ERA is NOT better than Wakefield's. Halladay leads Wakefield only in wins, winning percentage and giving up fewer walks. Offensively, I like the Redsox A LOT better than the Bluejays (Win 7-4)

BALT(Guthrie) -120 (BCLI line -165) over Cws(Garland)-------Garland is a good MLB pitcher, but this year Guthrie has been GREAT MLB pitcher. Orioles have hit over 30 points higher than the Whitesox this year. Their offense is clearly and significantly better. But this line is valuing these offenses and pitchers as if they are dead equal(assuming a 20 cent advantage for Balt being at home). They are not. (Lose 9-7.....First time Guthrie gets rocked as a starter this year....and its by the White Sox???? I dont understand that shit)

TAMPA(Shields) +132 (BCLI line TB -120) over Nyy(Pettitte)-------- +132? Jesus Christ, gimme a break. Pettitte is coming off 2 straight brutal rockings and despite Tampa's weak bullpen, I simply have to take this bet at this price. Shields' K to BB ratio is 116 to 19. That's better than Santana and Verlander. In fact, Shields should have pitched in the All Star game. I dont think you can find a better K/BB ratio than his. And batters are hitting like .230 off him. Tampa hits .279 vs lhp's. (Lose 7-3)

DETROIT(Miller) +121 (BCLI line -105) over Sea(Hernandez) (Lose 3-2)
Det vs Sea OVER 8.5----------------Miller was just too impressive vs Boston and altho Mariners hit lhp's well(.293) I think i have to take this one. Hernandez is hittable this year. The OVER is more of a hedge since the mariners may hit Miller. But I think the Tigers will do well vs Felix(Lose 3-2......Tigers out hit them by 5 fucking hits 11 to 6 and, of course, the winning run was unearned. I cannot believe this shit)

Sunday, July 08, 2007

SAN FRANCISO(Zito) -112 (BCLI line -124) over Stl(Wellemeyer)----------Giants have gone 7, 3, 4, 9 runs pergame over their last 4. That's ok. Zito walks people, but Stl has no particular talent for taking walks and they only hit .251 vs lhp's. Stl does have a lot of rhb's, and Zito is good vs them (.221). Zito is coming off 2 good starts for which he did not get a win. In fact, he has not gotten a win in quite a while. I think its time for him to get one. Wellemeyer just got rocked by lowly Arizona and he has not been good this year and does not pitch many innings when he starts. Lhb's have hit an incredible .374 off him and I can count 6 Lhb's that could be in Sf's lineup today not including Zito himself. (Lose 7-0.....Zito's fastball is about 78-81 mph. He is a joke. Wellemeyer actually throws 93mph. He looked much better than his past numbers. But yeah, you shouldnt bet on the Giants: their offense is pathetic.)

BCLI line (official line)

Cleve---Byrd -135 (-120) (The Man---Towers)
Cws---Vazquez -133 (-117) (BCLI)
Tampa---Kazmir -145 (-125) (The Man---De La Rosa)
Balt--Cabrera -127 (+105) (The Man--Millwood)

Saturday, July 07, 2007

DETROIT(Bonderman) -145 (BCLI line -200) over Bos(Gabbard)--------Gabbard beat me last time with Texas.......the Tigers are a whole different story: They specialize in hitting lhp's and right now they are ripping. After watching what Miller did to Boston yesterday, I'm not afraid of their offense. I think Bonderman is MUCH better than Gabbard and the Tigers offense is great. (Win 3-2.....lucky to win this, Gabbard now gets HUGE respect.....he came close to shutting them out)

MILWAUKEE(Suppan) -139 (BCLI line -170) over Wash(Simontacchi)--------Suppan was real good early in the season but he HAS been getting worse. However, I still think this line is wrong due to Nationals offensive inferiority. Brewers slug .455...Washington slugs .363. That's about the biggest difference you'll find between two teams. In Washington's last 15 games, they've scored 6 or more runs only 2 times and most of those games they scored 3 runs or less. Is Simontacchi hittable? YES. Rhb's hit .364 off him (Lose 5-4.....Brewers out hit them 10 to 8, Langerhans wins it with a diving catch)

ATL(Reyes) +125 (BCLI line -105) over Sd(Wells)------------Braves have gone 7, 8, 5, 6 runs per game over their last 4 and Padres have gone 4, 2, 1, 4. Any offense should be able to hit Wells and Atl is scoring well.(Lose 8-5.....Braves out hit them 10 to 8, still lose)

BCLI line (official line)

Cubs--Lilly -113 (-142) (The Man)
Az--Webb -110 (-145) (BCLI--Bailey)
Sf--Lincecum -125 (-102) (BCLI)
Lad----Lowe -135 (-165) (BCLI--Mitre)
Kc----Meche -120 (-150) (The Man)

Friday, July 06, 2007

Angels(Colon) vs Nyy(Pettitte) OVER 10(+100)------Colon is terrible this year.....batters hitting at least .300 vs Pettitte AND Colon. Angels hitting .300 vs lhp's. (Win 14-9)

CIN(Lohse) -113 (BCLI line -125) over Az(Owings)--------Owings may be slightly better than Lohse but Reds offense is better and they have gone 6,5, 7, 7......they're scoring well and Arizona is not and almost never does (Win 8-1)

SF(Lowry) +104 (BCLI line Sf -117) over Stl(Maroth) (Win 4-3)
Sf vs Stl UNDER 9 (+100)--------------I think Lowry is much better than Maroth. But both offenses are weak and SF only hits .241 vs lhp's. Stl hits .248 vs lhp's. Either team can score low at any time but SF has the pitching advantage here. Lowry does walk people but Stl takes only 1 walk every 12 atbats, making them about the 3rd worst team in baseball at taking walks. (Win 4-3)

TAMPA(Shields) -110 (BCLI line -140) over Kc(Perez)---------Tampa has NOT been hitting. However, Shields is a lot better than Perez. Kc has gone 0, 17, 3, 1, 1 in their last 5 games. That doesnt scare me. Tampa knows they owe Shields a win here and they hit better (.274) vs lhp's. It would be a complete joke and SHAMEFUL if Tampa lost this game. Price is good. (Win 6-5)

BALT(Guthrie) -108 (BCLI line -129) over Tex(Loe)---------Batters hit .205 vs Guthrie and .300 vs Loe. Loe has done well his last 4 games where he pitched 27 innings and only allowed 24 hits. But Guthrie has done better than that all season. Orioles are scoring well lately and the Rangers suck. (Lose 4-3........Orioles got screwed on a bad call on a guy sliding into home plate, he was clearly safe)

BOSTON(Tavarez) +107 (BCLI line +110) over Det(Miller)--------Miller walks people and Boston takes walks. Boston also hits .278 vs lhp's and the last 2 days their offense has surged, destoying the lhp, Howell, yesterday. Tavarez is going pretty good and has one shutdown the Tigers already this year. (Lose 9-2......Miller gets respect)

Thursday, July 05, 2007

*DETROIT(Verlander) -108 (BCLI line -154) over Cleve(Sabathia) (Win 12-3)
Det -1.5 (+180) over Cleve--------------Tigers are at .306 vs lhp's and Sabathia throws strikes and Tigers dont take walks. Tigers have already hit Sabathia once this year but didnt win the game. I saw the Indians get smoked by the lowly Edwin Jackson and that's when I realized that they are overrated. I expect Verlander to blow this team away. Batters hit .210 vs Verlander and .255 vs Sabathia. Tigers are outslugging Cleveland by 29 points and out hitting them by 14 points. Verlander IS BETTER than Sabathia and Detroit is at home......so what the hell is the line doing at -108??? That's the sportsbooks' problem, not mine (Win 12-3)

Cubs(Marshall) vs Wash(Bergmann) UNDER 8 (-110)-------------Two good pitchers who happened to do bad in their last starts. Going for redemption today. ZERO offensive strength from Nationals lately. (Win 4-2)

BALT(Burres) +101 (BCLI line Balt -125) over Cws(Danks)------------Orioles offense is clearly better. Orioles have moved up to .280 vs lhp's while white sox have moved up to .228 vs lhp's. Burres only .235 BA against (tho he walks more than 1 every 2 innings). Orioles have scored 6 or more runs in 3 of their last 5 games (Lose 11-6.......Burres gets rocked brutally...by the whitesox??)

YANKEES(Igawa) -155 (BCLI line -192) over Minn(Slowey)------------Twins have gone 6, 0, 1, 0 runs per game in their last 4. Twins are weaker(.256) vs lhp's and Igawa is harder to hit(.263) than Slowey (.310). Igawa does walk people, but Twins dont take many walks. Slowey is a "shaky" 3-0......maybe that's why the line seems low.(Win 7-6)

Wednesday, July 04, 2007

DETROIT(Rogers) -130 (BCLI line -150) over Cleve(Westbrook)-----------Westbrook has gotten to face TampaBay twice and Washington once recently.....thus his numbers are deceptively good of late. Tigers offense is a totally different story. Rogers has been near perfect in his first two starts......this is when Cleveland will start getting exposed as overrated. I dont think they can hit good pitching and Westbrook is not as good as he may appear. (Win 6-4)

GIANTS(Cain) -110 (BCLI line -115) over Cin(Belisle)----------I know the risks associated with betting on the Giants and I think this is worth it. Cain just cannot be allowed to lose again based on poor hitting. He is the most undeservedly 2-9 pitcher in history. I have a hunch that the Giants can hit Belisle's low stuff (Win 9-5)

METS(Hernandez) -135 (BCLI line -153) over Col(Fogg)------------Mets should view this as a must-win. This pitching matchup is just too advantageous to the Mets for them to screw it up. It is time for the Mets to hit and Fogg is very hittable. (Lose 17-7.....disgusting performance by El Dumbass)

BCLI line (official line)

Cubs---Hill -177 (-158) (The Man---Chico)
Atl--James -118 (+105) (BCLI)
Oak---Kennedy -105 (-130) (BCLI---McGowan)
Laa---Weaver -145 (-174) (BCLI--Wright)

Tuesday, July 03, 2007

ANGELS(Santana) -124 (BCLI line -128) over Tex(Millwood)-------I hate the Rangers. Michael Young is a fucking joke. Sosa sucks. Catalanotto is pathetic and Millwood should be rocked by any decent team. (Lose 8-3)

HOUSTON(Oswalt) -151 (BCLI line -175) over Phi(Eaton)------------Astros are scoring some runs. I almost took the over on them yesterday. kinda mad about that. Oswalt isnt unbeatable but he's significantly better than Eaton (Win 5-4)

CUBS(Zambrano) -179 (BCLI line -190) over Wash(Redding)-----------Washington still not scoring.......I think you can keep going against them.....Zambrano doing well, going deep into games. (Win 3-1)

Tampa(Kazmir) vs Boston(Matsuzaka) UNDER 9 (-105)---------------Tampa not scoring at all, Red sox offense still weak. Either of these pitchers can strike someone out to get out of a jam. Tampa's bullpen is a risk (Win 4-1)

CIN(Harang) -125 (BCLI line -127) over Sf(Zito) (Win 7-3)
Cin vs Sf UNDER 9 (-105)-----------------------Harang is a solid pitcher and Giants offense is pathetic (Lose 7-3)

SEATLLE(Feierabend) -102 (BCLI line -102) over Kc(De La Rosa)------------De La Rosa has given up a lot of hits lately. KC is weaker vs lhp's and Seattle is stronger vs lhp's. Mariners are hitting 30 points higher than Royals and 60 points higher against lhp's. (Lose 17-3.......Why is Feierabend permitted to stay in the major leagues? Who is permitted to give up 10 runs in 1 inning to the Royals?? Sick)

OAK(Blanton) -1.5 (+130) over Tor(Litsch)-------Toronto will not hit Blanton (Win 3-1)

BCLI line (official line)

Det---Robertson -155 (-121) (The Man--Byrd)
Balt---Cabrera -110 (+120) (The Man---Vazquez)

Monday, July 02, 2007

CUBS(Lilly) -150 (BCLI line -165) over Wash(Simontacchi)------Nationals have been on a LOOONNNGGG streak of scoring 3 runs or less and its hard to see them breaking out of that against Lilly, a guy who has held opposing batters to a .230 average this year. Washington is now, no doubt, the weakest offense in baseball and Simontacchi is WAY worse than Lilly. (Win 7-2)

FLORIDA(Mitre) +123 (BCLI line Fla -132) over Sd(Wells)------------This line is spectacularly wrong. Marlins hit .280 off lhp's and Wells is allowing a .315 average against. Mitre's ERA is 2.75 and is having a breakout year. No reason not to bet him as the Padres offense FUCKING SUCKED yesterday. (Lose 3-1.....I dont know how this shit happens. San Diego got ONLY 3 FUCKING HITS! How do you win a game on 3 hits? Marlins got 7 hits, which is a pathetic failure itself because Wells is so hittable. Marlins offense is a sick joke but Mitre did the job. I cant believe this shit.)

TEXAS(McCarthy) +150 (BCLI line +135) over Bos(Gabbard)-----------Redsox offense has been way too weak to warrant a -160 with Gabbard going. Rangers offense is similarly weak and incompetent. However, Tx does hit about 12 points better vs lhp's and Gabbard clearly has nothing together as he has been wild and hittable. (Lose 7-3......This is the last FUCKING time I bet on Texas. This team need to be sent to Triple A. The whole fucking team. Every single shit-bag player.)

BCLI line (official line)

Nyy--Clemens -160 (-189) (The Man)
Cleve---Carmona -180 (-200) (The Man)
Sea--Hernandez -131 (-114) (The Man--Meche)
Oak--DiNardo -167 (-133) (The Man--Towers)

Sunday, July 01, 2007

CIN(Bailey) -104 (BCLI line -120) over Stl(Maroth)----------Bailey going for redemption here; Stl has gone 1, 4, 0, 5, 1, 1 runs pergame over their last 6(that's like 2 runs per game on average). Reds have gone 5,2, 9, 4........I still cant believe that Maroth will turn into a good pitcher in the NL(i could be wrong, lets see what he does here). Bailey good vs rhb's and Pujols is the only threat on this weak Cardinal team. (Lose 11-7.....Bailey is garbage)

PHI(Kendrick) -117 (BCLI line -136) over Mets(Pelfrey)----------I am NOT forgetting the Mets offensive weakness. I dont care if they just won 3 games or so. The Phillies are slugging higher than the Mets for the season and they take more walks. Pelfrey just up from the minor leagues.....I like the Phillies here (Win 5-3)

PITT(Maholm) -145 (BCLI line -142) over Wash(Bacsik)-------------Bacsik not looking too good while Maholm is getting better. Pirates have rocked Bacsik recently and I like how Maholm is going now (Lose 3-2......Pirates offense is a disgrace)

OAK(Haren) +117 (BCLI line Oak -110) over Nyy(Pettitte)----------Yanks have averaged 2.4 runs per game over their last 5. Batters hit about .200 off Haren and .270 off Pettitte. If this werent a day game, I'd take the under too. Yanks got 1 hit off Gaudin yesterday......that means there's a good chance for Haren to pitch a no-hitter today. (Win 11-5)

BALT(Guthrie) +1.5 (-130) over Laa(Lackey)----------I think Lackey might do good so I'll take the run at this price. Guthrie always does good. (Win 4-3)

DET(Bonderman) -170 (BCLI line -200) over Minn(Baker)------------The Tigers are the only offense in baseball that I respect right now. The fact that Baker beat me against the Mets and Blue Jays says more about how weak the Mets and Blue Jays are as offenses than anything else. Baker will not and cannot beat the Tigers (Win 1-0......yes, i will now respect Baker)

SD(Germano) +102 (BCLI line SD -115) over Lad(Billingsley)----------Billingsley's 2 starts have been failures going 4 innings or less vs weak offenses. He is not a starter, he is a reliever. Germano's ERA is 2.67 and he is hard to hit (Lose 5-0.....Padres offense is pathetic)