Saturday, November 25, 2006


*(Game of The Year)Notre Dame +9 over USC --------Quinn is a 65% passer and has thrown for 3000 yards. USC has proven itself to be overrated this year; they've failed to cover 5 double digit spreads in their conference, lost to Oregon State and came very close to not winning several other games. Ok, why did USC beat Cal? Why did USC blow out Oregon? Why did USC blow out Arkansas? The answer is that USC stops the run. Cal is a running team and Lynch was held to 88 yards. Arkansas is a running team, passes very poorly and McFadden was held to 40-some yards. Oregon is a poor passing team and has switched QB's a lot. Notre Dame IS A PASSING TEAM! They're not great on defense and got torched by Mich and Michigan State by passes. However, ND has actually allowed fewer passing yards than USC has. So ND lost to Michigan.....Michigan is clearly the #2 team in the country and their defense is, unquestionably, better than USC's. Why did ND lose by 26 points to Michigan? Quinn was picked off 3 times in that game constituting 60% of his interceptions for the ENTIRE SEASON(he's only been picked 5 times). So, you get the best QB in NCAAF, +9 points playing against an overrated team with no particular talent stopping the pass.

Arizona State +3 over Arizona and ASU (+145) straight up------Why did Arizona beat Cal? they got 3 interceptions. why did Arizona beat whip Oregon? they got 4 interceptions. Is Arizona's defense really that good? well, ASU's defense has allowed 310 yards per game and AZ's has allowed 316 yards per game. ASU has been inconsistent, getting blown out some games and then blowing out Washington State and only losing by 7 to USC. There is a major difference in these offenses. On average ASU gets 100 more yards per game than AZ and scores 10 more points. And ASU passes well and runs well while AZ isnt very good at either.

Louisville -10 over Pitt-------Louisville lost to Rutgers because Rutgers ran on them and defended out of their mind in the 2nd half. Pitt's best weapon is Palko and i dont see Pitt rushing like Rutgers or defending anywhere near what Rutgers did. Louisville runs and passes well and can bury teams. Pitt's D broke down against WV and Pitt got whipped by the pathetic Michigan State at home. Yeah, that's right: PITT WAS AT HOME WHEN MICHIGAN STATE BEAT THEM BY 15 POINTS. I know because I bet on Pitt. Louisville is much better than MSU. Pitt also lost to Connecticut(that's pathetic). bet on a blowout is worth it

Rutgers -16.5 over Syracuse --------Syracuse is just having a lot of problems scoring and against Rutgers' great defense, I think Syracuse could come close to getting shut out. Rutgers is coming off their only lost and should be pissed enough to go for the blowout. Syracuse has nothing going for them.

Virginia +22 teased with ND/USC OVER 50.5------Virginia only 1-4 ATS on the road but Ore is "Doubtful" for VirgTech and has constituted a huge part of VT's offense. Virginia's defense isnt as good as VT's, but it is pretty good. The o/u is 37 so it should be a low scoring game and VT's is favored by too many points. Offensively, both teams scored 17 points against Miami's great defense. Virginia threw 2 interceptions against FSU. that's why they lost 0-33. In the ND game, we KNOW ND is passing, and we know ND's defense is breakable. I think Booty will pass alot but there is a chance they will try to run to avoid a huge shootout with Quinn.

Friday, November 24, 2006


Oregon State -3 over Oregon------revenge game for Osu as Oregon crushed them last year 56-14. Oregon coming off 2 very poor showings; L's and non covers. Osu beat USC at home and they're at home today.....they also beat Arizona on the road. Looks like Oregon is struggling at QB as Dixon is has been poor lately and if Oregon tries to rush, well, OSU defense is very good vs the run

LSU -2 over Arkansas----------LSU's qb is a 68% passer and Ark has some a 52% passer and a 59% passer. Ark survives on Mcfadden's rushing and kick returns and LSU is excellent stopping the run(74 yds per game vs run). Mcfadden was neutralized last week by Miss state as a rusher(but dominated as a kick returner). There's a strong possibility that LSU's defense will stop Mcfadden and if that happens, Ark will pass and pass poorly. Ark may score very few points in this one while LSU will be able to use a much more balanced attack on offense. Ark only 4-6 ATS this year
BCLI record update

45-39-3 on all single football bets(non teasers)
7-11(-6.55units) on teasers
5-12(-4.4units) on moneyline bets
15-8 on over/under bets
8-5-1 on starred bets

Damn. That sucks, and if you isolate the moneylines from the 45-39-3 and calculate, you get +10.3units on all (-110) spread bets making BCLI actually down .65 of a unit on football. So if I had just not bothered with teasers and moneyline bets I'd be up 10units instead of slightly down. I guess there's a lesson: dont bet anymore teasers.....or ml's.
And what an incredibly good bet the over was on the lions just didnt win because the Lions suck so bad. I predicted at least 70 passing attempts, we got 69. In the last 22 NFL games in which the total passing attempts are between 69 and 63, the OVER has gone 13-8 and the average score in those games has been 44.2. Fuck the Lions...stupid scores in the 4 quarter( or the 3rd or 2nd )

Thursday, November 23, 2006


*Miami vs Detroit OVER 40--------passing attempts AGAINST Miami have averaged in the high 30's lately because teams know they CANNOT run against Miami's defense. And the Lions rushing game has been weak this year......and today Jones, the Lions' main rusher, is out. Probability of Lions passing in this game is now doubly high. Kitna had 30 passing attempts against SF and that was clearly a running game plan against the 49er's weak rushing defense.....Kitna usually passes more than that. Im sure he'll have over 40 passing attempts in this game. Harrington continues to pass a lot for Miami. Their running game is weak and Brown, their rusher, has an injury. But will they choose to pass vs Detroit? I think they will. Yes, SF chose to run vs detroit(because Gore is hot and they have no confidence in Smith's passing ability), and AZ chose to run James alot(probably because they had been underusing him and they had a lead), and Vick, well, he did have 32 passing attempts vs Detroit despite the fact that ATL is a running team and Vick doesnt pass very well. But Miami's situation is different: they dont have a Gore or an Edgerrin James or a good rushing offense. They have Harrington and they've been letting him throw. yes, Miami's defense is good and there's no guarantee that passes will be successful, but at least they'll lengthen the game. More than 60 passing attempts in a game is pushing the total OVER 57% of the time and I'm confident we'll see 70 passing attempts in this game.

Sunday, November 19, 2006

Sunday Nite

San Diego +3 over Denver-----I've seen a lot of people who like Denver in this one. And, yes, Denver is at home and I like to take home teams......But...
I think this could be one of those games, those RARE occurences where the home field advantage is overvalued by the line makers. Lets look at Denver at home this year: W KC 9-6, W Oak 13-3, W Balt this point their defense looked good, i bet on them and then L Indianapolis 31-34. After that game, they won at Pitt in a game that they should have lost. Roethlisberger threw for over 400 yards against them and Pitt had in the vicinity of more than 200 total yards MORE than Denver had(but pitt had 6 turnovers; that's why denver won). Other than one 72 yard rush from Javon Walker, Denver only had 43 other rushing yards vs Pitt. Then last week Denver easily could have lost to Oakland.
In terms of yards allowed per game, SD and Denver's defense are only 13 yards apart and the defenses against the run are equally good. So this game should come down to the passing. And Rivers is simply much much MUCH better than Plummer. its 66% against Plummer's 55%. So even if Tomlinson is totally neutralized as a rusher, SD should out pass Denver and probably win. SD has scored 16 more points per game than Denver. Last week, SD got passed on by Carson Palmer and were way behind, then they came back and actually won the game by 8 points. 1)Plummer CANNOT pass like Palmer and 2) when you have a good passer like Rivers, you're always in the game because you can come back quickly. I dont think the home field advantage is powerful enough to overcome SD's offensive superiority. You have to be able to score a bit to cover even a -3 line and Denver cant score.

Saturday, November 18, 2006


ALABAMA +3 over Auburn and Alabama (+130) straight up------I think there's some hidden value in Alabama considering they've had to play 4 good teams on the road this year(@Florida, @LSU, @Tenn, @Ark). That's gotta be tough and hurtful to Bama's stats. And, of course, they played Tenn and Ark to very, very close games. Alabama should be pissed enough to play hard after coming off 2 consecutive losses to LSU and Mississippi State. They're also pissed about Auburn doing some 'four fingered salute' thing last year when Auburn beat them. Auburn should come out weaker than expected because they've only had 3 road games this year. Looks like Auburn has only covered 4 times this year. They were exposed as overrated when they lost 10-27 to Arkansas as 13 point favorites, but they somehow came back the next weak to beat Florida. I dont what what was up with that. Then, 3 straight failures to cover culminating in last weeks 15-37 loss to Georgia as 11 point favorites. Now, Georgia fucking sucks this year so you really have to wonder about Auburn.

MISSISSIPPI STATE +14.5 over Arkansas------Msu off a bye coming home after beating alabama. Thats seems like a positive situation. Arkansas has only 3 road games under their belt this year and are coming off a win against Tennessee. Beating Tenn is impressive, but i think Tenn was in a weakened condition last week without Ainge. Ark's passing game is not dangerous; Mustain is only a low 50's percentage passer. So if MSU has had an extra week concentrating on stopping Ark's running game, all they have to do is do that and im pretty sure they cover 2 td's. MSU has learned how to score in their last 3 games with 79 total points and is doing much better than their pathetic first half of the season. MSU's defense is allowing 119 yards per game against the rush. That's not terrible, and if they turn it up a notch, as they should at home off a bye, they should contain Mcfadden.

MICHIGAN +7.5(-130) over Ohio State-------buy a point and i think this bet is a high probability winner. First of all, I think it would be very surprising if anybody got blown out in this game. Statistically, both defenses are incredibly good. Mich allowing 30 yards per game against the rush and I dont think OSU will hesitate to pass a good deal(the prop bet on Smith completing over 16.5 passes looks like a good bet). OSU looked good and very powerful against Texas, but Texas proved to be overrated throughout the season going 5-5 ATS and losing to Kansas State and almost losing to Nebraska and Texas Tech. After that, I'd have to say OSU's schedule looks pretty weak. Did OSU play Wisconsin? NO! but Michigan did. OSU padded their stats blowing out Indiana and Minnesota at home; but Michigan had to play these 2 teams on the road. Oh! OSU got to play Penn State at home while Mich had to play PSU at PSU. Michigan's beatdown AT Notre Dame means something good in favor of the Maize and Blue, but not SO good as ND's defense has proven to be very soft. What about the home field advantage? I think its diminished here as this game is huge enough for both teams even in years when its not #1 vs #2. The hugeness of the game probably puts more pressure on the home team, especially with the fact of Ohio's inferiority complex vis a vis Michigan(i still remember 1996 when Michigan went down there as 17 point dogs, noone thought they had a chance and they won it straight up. That was a great day.) Schembechler's death should add some air to Michigan's sails. It is routine for Michigan to not cover at home, that's been going on for years, but they are 4-0 ATS on the road this year. The line on this game SHOULD be Osu -3.5. OSU -7 is a stupid bet. Mich +7 is worth a bet.

Miami vs Virgina UNDER 37-----not a great number to go under but these offenses have established themselves as highly incompetent. you cant run against Miami's good defense, and Virginia's QB is not very good, in my opinion, as a passer(Virginia only passes for 160 yards per game). Kyle Wright is out as Miami's QB and considering the fact that he SUCKED, i dont feel that his backup will do anything good. Virginia's defense is pretty decent against the run, they allow less than 20 points per game and they should show some improvement coming off a bye following a 0-33 loss at FSU

WAKE FOREST pick'em over Virginia Tech------I think you can go with Wake again here at home. VT is overrated this year and Wake has been underrated, tho after killing FSU and beating Boston College, Wake is finally getting some respect(Pick'em at home vs VT......that's the extent of it). Skinner is hitting 68% as Wake's QB and Wake is rushing for 153 yards per game compared to VT's 115 yds per game rushing. VT doesnt pass that well and their main weapon is Ore, an RB. Yes, at home, Ore rushed all over Clemson and VT won convincingly because Clemson's rushing defense is weak. Wake has only allowed 92 yards per game against the run so I think they have a good chance.

Thursday, November 16, 2006


*Ohio -4 over Akron-----Despite having played Rutgers, Missouri and Illinois, Ohio's defense is only allowing 16 point per game. Akron prefers to pass but Ohio is only allowing 153 yards per game by way of the pass. Akron crushed ohio last year so its a revenge spot for Ohio and Akron is a pathetic 1-5 ATS on the road this year(tho they did somehow beat NC state). In addition, Ohio has had 5 more days to prepare for this game than Akron. Ohio has beaten Illinois and Western Michigan and I think they have big upside here having only played 4 home games. It seems the only way Akron can win is if their QB, Luke Getsy, has a big day. That is unlikely considering that he is only a 53% passer this year, Ohio is good vs the pass and with a 50% chance of rain(possibly mixed with snow), it'll be hard for anyone to pass

Tuesday, November 14, 2006


Ball State (+170) over Toledo-----Ball State will have had 3 more days to prepare for this one than Toledo. So far this year: Ball State underrated (6-3 ATS) and Toledo overrated (4-5 ATS). Perhaps the line has adjusted for this but the fact remains: Ball State has covered the spread against 3 big ten teams and Toledo has lost 45-3 against Pittsburgh and they've also lost to Eastern Michigan. Some people will tell you that Ball State's game against Michigan was a fluke. But the fact remains: they were 2 yards and a 2 point conversion away from tying the #2 team in the country LATE in the game. Ball State's weakest point statistically, their pass defense, may not hurt them in this game because Toledo cannot pass well(their Qb's complete around 53% of their passes). Ball State has TWO 64% passers. Toledo also beat Ball State last year 34-14 at BS so this is a revenge situation for BS. This game will be instructive as far as what happens the game after you ALMOST beat a huge team. Texas Tech lost to Texas 35-31 and the next game they came back and covered by more than 2 td's. If Ball State can come within 1 of Indiana, 10 of Purdue and 8 of Michigan, they can definitely beat a team like Toledo that is having a distinctly unimpressive season.

Sunday, November 12, 2006


Miami -1.5 over KC and OVER 40------KC should be tired here after 3 straight wins and covers. But remember: KC got blown out 45-7 by the pathetic Steelers and really should have lost to Arizona, only winning by 3. If KC wins this game it will be an incredible 4 straight wins and covers with this game being the 2nd consecutive road win. I dont think they're that good. Miami is climbing up out of a disappointing year and should be at a season high in confidence after beating the bears. Statistically, these offenses are equal in terms of yards gained with Miami being about 35 yards per game better on defense. Harrington continues to deliver the passing attempts and with Miami's defense being pretty good against the run, KC should try to pass more than usual. KC has also been playing some pretty high scoring games lately; they havent gone under in the last 6 games and Harrington has taken Miami over the total 3 times out of 4 since he started to play

Arizona +6.5 over Dallas and Arizona (+250) straight up-------Az coming home after a loss after a bye. This is the first time they've been at home since the monday night tragedy and they owe their fans a win. Fitzgerald is back now. Dallas should certainly be favored, but they are only 4-4 ATS; a middling team that should be vulnerable on the road against a rested, motivated team.

Oakland +9 over Denver and Oakland (+400) straight up-------These bets might seem more of a stretch but consider that Oakland's defense is ACTUALLY STATISTICALLY BETTER THAN DENVER'S in terms of yards allowed per game. Oakland has lost at Denver only 13-3 and is in a revenge situation and a "mad" situation after getting shutout on monday night. But look at the condition of Denver; they've just played 2 really tough games; they got 3 concussions last game against Pittsburgh. John Lych, Ian Gold and a bunch of others are either 'questionable' or 'probable' with injuries.

Giants -1 over Bears and OVER 37.5--------just 3 reasons why i like the Giants 1) at home 2) Barber is better than Bears rushing game 3)I like Manning over Grossman. Both defenses allow 90-some yards per game against the run. That's good and should encourage both teams to pass more. In games which are not Bears blowouts(and this game should not be a blowout for the Bears), Grossman will give you 30-some passing attempts. Linemakers look at the Bears good defense and give an o/u number in the 30's, Grossman then passes the game over.
This season the o/u's for the Bears have been over 40 only 2 times and the Bears games have gone under ONLY ONCE. If they're gonna give a 37.5 on this game with Manning, another capable passer, I'm gonna take the over again despite injuries to WR's Berrian and Toomer and Burress(who might play). I just dont see running plays working against these defenses.

Atlanta -2 teased with Detroit pick'em--------Atl should have motivation coming home after disgraceful loss to Lions. San Fran very bad in road games. Lions getting used to winning

San Francisco Detroit UNDER 46-------i've seen a free pick liking the over in this game but Alex Smith is averaging very few passing attempts. San Fran's offensive weapon seems to be Gore, a running back, and they seem to be not passing in games they should be passing more. (perhaps low confidence in Smith's passing skills). Last game against Minnesota, a team with a good rushing defense, Smith only had 21 passing attempts. And they somehow won. Detroit should try their running game a little more as SF's defense is not particularly strong vs the run.

Saturday, November 11, 2006


Wake Forest +8.5 over Florida State-----Fsu seems to have a lot of injuries including QB Weatherford(though he'll probably play). FSU has blown out Duke, Rice and Virginia but played everyone else close. Wake has beaten everyone (with one blowout of Mississippi) and lost only to Clemson by 10. WF is a "public" play with a huge(65%) percentage of wagers on them....yet the line has moved from an opening of WF +5. Interesting, but i figure that if WF has beaten BC and NC state, 2 teams that FSU has LOST to, a +8.5 has very good odds of covering.

Vanderbilt (+110) over Kentucky-----Kentucky is off a big win over Georgia....could be a let down for them here. Kentucky prefers to pass and Vanderbilt has a good passing defense. Kentucky's defense altogether is about 120 yards per game WORSE than Vanderbilt's. Vandy should be hungrier since they just lost to Florida(coming within 6 points).

Oregon +8 over USC-------I put USC in the same category as FSU: just an average team this year but likely to be overvalued due to past history of being good. USC's main threat is their QB and Oregon has only allowed 142 passing yards per game this year. Oregon has beaten Oklahoma.

Indiana +19.5 over Michigan-------Its clear that Michigan's strategy is to run the ball, score 28 points, let their defense dominate and get to the Ohio State game undefeated. They're NOT trying to blow teams out or destroy anybody. At Notre Dame, it was different: Michigan took some risks early because they expected ND to pass well against them and score some points. And, of course, they had Manningham then. He's apparently back now; if he's needed he could play, though he didnt play last week. UM is probably looking ahead to OSU and for IU, its the Game Of The Year. If Indiana's QB has the game of his life(he threw for 321 yards last game) and Indiana's defense steps up big(and they might because this is a big game), I think Indiana could win the game. UM came within 2 yards and a 2 point conversion of being TIED by Ball State late in the game last week.

New Mexico + 6 and New Mexico (+210) over TCU-------New Mex scoring well recently and coming off a bye.

Alabama +18 over LSU-------Alabama, besides losing by 15 points to Florida, has played everyone else very close. They are coming off a loss to Mississippi State, a team they should beat, and should have sufficient motivation to do well. LSU has played Florida, Auburn and Tennessee, but other than those teams, their schedule doesnt look very challenging.

Syracuse +10 over South Florida------Syracuse coming off the bye and is 7-2 ATS this year, despite everyone thinking they suck. SF coming off big win against Pitt....possible let down situation. SF's Qb is probable but he has a minor injury. Both these teams did equally bad at Cincinatti.

Wisconsin/Iowa UNDER 43.5 teased with Oklahoma -2.5 over Texas Tech(-125)------Wisconsin's QB is "Doubtful" which means they'll probably run more. Both defenses are good, with Wisconsin's being very good. Iowa's offense is pretty weak, if they can only put up 7 vs Northwestern(and only 6 against Michigan), I'd be surprised if they did much better vs Wisconsin. Texas Tech is a statistically good team IF they can pass. Ok's defense is good vs the pass as they beat Chase Daniel when everybody thought Missouri would win. Ok has also shown they can still rush well without Peterson. Texas Tech can't rush at all.

Thursday, November 09, 2006


Louisville -6.5 over Rutgers-----I love to bet home teams and i was looking for any excuse to bet Rutgers. But no, its just not there. Rutgers simply has not faced a good team. Some people might tell you that Pitt is good. I thought Pitt was good until i bet pitt at home against the pathetic Michigan State and Pitt got blown out. North Carolina? ummm, no. Rutgers beat NC by 5 points. Rutgers must have beaten someone good.......Navy? South Florida is decent but they only beat them by 2. Ohio? Illinois! Rutgers blew Illinois out and didnt Illinois upset someone? Yes, it was Michigan State(2-8 ATS), the most overvalued team in football. Louisville, on the other hand, is a good team that has beaten good teams. Isnt Rutgers' defense good? Well, Louisville has faced Miami's defense(one of the best defenses) and they still scored 31 points. Rutgers' passing stats look weak and if they get behind they may not be able to pass themselves back into it.

Monday, November 06, 2006

BCLI record

33-25-2(57.8%) on all single, non-teaser football bets(includes all moneyline and * bets and o/u bets)

7-9 (-4.2units) on teasers

3-7 (-2.1units) on all single bet moneylines that are not -110

7-6 (+2.48units) on post season baseball

12-6 on o/u football bets

7-4-1 on starred bets

Ahhhh, shit. BCLI slides into mediocrity. If you take out the 3-7 on ML's you get 30-18 on all -110's for +10.2units, then you subtract the -2.1 units on the 3-7 to drop to +8.1units then subtract the -4.2units on teasers and you get a total return of only +3.9units. I guess if you add the +2.48units from postseason baseball it goes to +6.38 units. But that's still a far cry from BCLI's incredible +22units in only 6 weeks of regular season baseball. I guess if you consider that BCLI has only been open for business since August 21st or so, and you consider total units won as 28.38. That's +.37units per day! a $1000 per unit BCLI player is making $370 a day. WOW! A dime-unit BCLI player is making

$135,050 a year!

And, of course, its all documented in the BCLI archives.

Sunday, November 05, 2006


*Miami Chicago OVER 37-------Harrington had 63 passing attempts against GB and 41 pa's the week before that. Both defenses are very good against the run and theres no way the game plan for either team can be rushing(neither team rushes as well as they pass). Also, the line suggests Miami will be behind perhaps by 2 scores and will be forced to pass even if they havent already decided to. Harrington will pass alot and 37 is not too high a number


Pitt -3(+100) over Denver------Denver's defense was exposed last week as overrated, built on a weak schedule. Denver's pass defense is pathetic. Pitt has strong motivation after losing to a bad team, Oakland. Some think Pitt will try to run, but I think they may pass to expoit Denver's weak-ass secondary.

New England (-160) over Colts------New England's defense is stronger than i thought. NE will run and try to control the time of possession and they should succeed as Indy can be ran against. But NE definitely can pass if they have to as we saw Brady annihilate Minnesota and BCLI last monday AT MINNESOTA!

Saturday, November 04, 2006


*Miami +2.5 over Virginia Tech and Miami (+120) straight up------Miami coming home off a loss to GT should have the motivation. VT coming off big win vs Clemson and ripe for a let down. VT has only played 2 road games this year and could prove to be more overrated than they already have shown on the road here. Miami is averaging an allowance of only 65 yds rushing and that is probably the best rushing defense of any team(FSU rushed for only 4 yds total against Miami). So can VT pass? I checked the 2 games where VT was behind and had to pass a lot. The results were that VT lost those games. VT beat clemson almost totally with Ore, their best rusher. I am pretty sure that Miami will do MUCH better if VT tries to rush very much here. No, Miami doesnt score well but if VT could only score 3 points against Boston College(and they could easily fare just as badly vs Miami's D) Miami could still win even if they dont score much.

Wisconsin -1 teased with Cal -11-------Wisconsin seems to be a fashionable play but i dont wanna lay 7 with them as they havent really beaten anybody good. Their offense is very good statistically and Penn State's offense is terrible. That should be enough to get Wisconsin a win. And I do want to play the Badger defense at home, but PSU's defense is also good so it may NOT be a blowout. Cal is coming off a bye and i really want to play them at home.

Cal UCLA OVER 51-------Cal is a scoring machine and i think they'll be strong off the bye. Cal rushing game is formidable but I've checked their recent games and their qb is often passing more than 30 times a game. Statistically, Cal's defense doesnt look so good in terms of yards allowed, so I think UCLA might put up 20 or more points. UCLA's defense DOES look ok statistically but they just lost 15-37 to Washington State. And if WSU scores that much against UCLA, Cal should score at least 40 against them.


Texas Tech -16.5 over Baylor-------looks like Baylor's QB is out for the season after getting injured last game. And he provided virtually all of the offense as Baylor doesnt seem to rush for even 50 yds per game. Texas Tech almost beat Texas last game at home and their coach said they played their best game all season against Texas, losing only 31-35. Tech certainly knows how to pass so they could put up a big number against a weak Baylor pass defense.

Wednesday, November 01, 2006


Boise state Fresno state UNDER 58------ok, 105 points were scored when Fresno played Hawaii. You'd think Fresno had a lot of passing attempts....but NO, they only passed 29 times. When Boise played Hawaii, over 70 points were scored. How much did Boise pass? Only 29 times. These teams do score high and that's why this total opened at 61, BUT LOOK AT HOW MUCH THEY DONT PASS! Bosie is averaging like 20 passing attempts per game over their last few games and Fresno is ALSO in the 20's for passing attempts. The QB's are only 50%+ passers and this is probably why they dont pass much. Boise's run defense is statistically pretty good and for this game to go over, I think both teams will have to be VERY successful rushing or pass ALOT more than they usually do. take the UNDER.

The Minnesota game was a disaster for BCLI and I've racked my brain trying to discover how this could be avoided in the future. Of course, it should have gone over with an incredible 85 passing attempts, but Brad Johnson tossed some horrible interceptions in New England territory and there was a preposterously bad call made on a Vikings reception which was reviewed on film and STILL not called correctly. It was actually one of the worst officiating efforts of all time and is a tragedy that BCLI's record has to suffer for these CRIMES of "professional" NFL officiating. But Minnesota was clearing not prepared for the game; they quit and disgraced the entire state of Minnesota. The only reason--the only lesson to be learned---is that Minnesota was coming off a 24 point cover at Seattle where they won outright on the road. Lesson: After a Herculean effort, beware of a let-down. Just didnt think they'd have a let down at home on Monday Night.