Thursday, October 19, 2006

Thursday

Central Michigan -1.5 teased with Virginia pick'em(-110)-----Central has covered all their games this year(some by just a point or two though) and they only lost by a td against boston college. And they beat a pretty decent Ball State last game. Their biggest weakness, defending against the pass, probably wont hurt them since Bowling Green doesnt pass very well. North Carolina HAS faced some pretty good teams including Miami, Clemson, Rutgers and Virginia Tech so they may not come out as bad as they statistically are. However, their defense probably will be pretty bad considering they allowed lowly Furman to score 42 points. NC has not covered any spreads this season. Virginia is not a good team either and hasnt covered very often. However, they did put a 37-0 beatdown on Duke, a bad team, yes, but one that gave Wake Forest a run for their money only losing by 1 point. The reason I like Virginia here is that they are seeking redemption after losing by 2 to maryland last game in which they got outscored 21-6 in the 4th quarter. A collapse probably on par with Arizona's monday loss to the Bears. They should have every possible motivation for doing their best at home on national TV against a highly beatable NC after such a pathetic loss. Over the last 3 season's Virginia is 11-4 ATS as a home favorite. Last year they lost at NC 5-7 and have that to avenge, which they apparently are good at being 15-4 ATS over the last 5 season's revenging a loss against a specific opponent.

Stl vs Mets------My -190 bet on the Mets to win this series is hanging by a feeble string. I thought the Mets would hit Weaver and Suppan. They have done the exact opposite. Their offense is still looking weak. And Perez or Trachsel in game 7 is.......a gamble. Perez has some stuff, but he sometimes gets rocked and had a big problem with walks during the regular season. Suppan came on strong at the end of the season and, of course, pitched an 8 inning 3 hitter vs the Mets last start. I doubt he'll do that well again but my general feeling is: the Mets could be in big trouble here and this is a perfect game to not bet on.

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