Sunday, September 30, 2007

Houston vs Atlanta OVER 39.5------------Houston's rushing defense looks pretty good(they certainly stopped fantasy hero Larry Johnson) and Falcons running game looks bad. Good chance Atl makes over 30 passing attempts. Starting RB for Houston, Green, probably out. Dayne in for him. With that hampered running game, i dont think Houston will try to run much either. Both QB's are doing good. Schaub at 75%, Harrington at 68%. I didnt bet Houston last game because Johnson was out. But Schaub still did well (27/33). (Win 26-16)

DALLAS -13 over Stl-----------Home revenge for Cowboys and they have been an offensive monster. If Dallas can beat the Bears in Chicago by 24 points, how can they not do better at home against a weaker(probably MUCH weaker) defense? I would take the over, since Bulger is gonna have to pass, but if Dallas wins 42-3, the over loses (Win 35-7)

Arizona vs Pitt OVER 42-------------Both rushing defenses look good; they should go to the air. Az had 40 passing attempts last game and 37 in the game before that (Lose 21-14)

ARIZONA +6 over Pitt------------Home off road loss motivation for AZ. Steelers have crushed some weak teams, benefiting from +4 turnovers at Cleveland. This game could be more challenging for them if AZ doesnt throw pics.(Win 21-14)

Saturday, September 29, 2007

*OREGON STATE -2 over Ucla------------Oregon State has Home off-Road-Loss motivation after losing to, BUT OUTGAINING BY 118 YARDS, Arizona State. OSU was also -4 on the turnover ratio to ASU. And they were -5 on the ratio when they got blown out by Cincinatti, who they OUTGAINED BY 81 YARDS. When Oregon State blew out Utah 24-7, they actually GAVE Utah 2 turnovers on the ratio. There is enormous hidden value in OSU if they dont turn the ball over in this game. Oregon state has allowed only 29 rushing yards per game this year? Can this stat be correct? If it is, that means UCLA's best offensive weapon, Kalil Bell, will be neutralized. And UCLA's QB's are poor passers; Cowan is definitely out and Olson got a concussion last game. If he starts and takes a good hit, he could be out too. And if Utah can blow out UCLA, and Oregon State can blow out Utah....hmmmm. Is this ALSO a revenge game for OSU? Yes. This has to be the best bet that I've checked out in College football this week. (Lose 40-14......Oregon State defense totally quits in the 2nd half, second week in a row my top play blows a 2 td lead AND the game)

ILLINOIS +3 over Penn State-----------Revenge game at home for Illinois. I've seen the Illini this year and I've seen Penn State. Illinois is fast and PSU is slow. Michigan is the only decent team that PSU has played this year. I saw the game, I was in the stadium, and......they didnt do much. Juice Williams is throwing 55% this year, much better than last year. He'll probably have to make some plays to get this done and, to tell you the truth, I'd like to be getting more points. Illinois looks pretty healthy; nobody on the injury list.(Win 27-20)

OREGON -6 over Cal-----------Taking 2 turnovers from AZ, Cal covered at home. Taking 3 turnovers from Michigan, Oregon BLEW THE HELL OUT of Michigan on the road. Cal has only played one road game, at Colorado State where they benefited from a +3 on the turnover ratio, got outgained by 72 yards and won by 6(they probably should have lost). Dixon is throwing 68% this year with no pics. I saw the game at Michigan; he's fast, mobile....his WR's are fast and they've got good plays: Statue of liberty pass or Statue of liberty fake-pass. Oregon is perfect ATS and was actually -1 on the TO ratio at Stanford(a 24 point blowout) Another revenge game at home as Cal beat them last year. (31-24.....Oregon gives 4 turnovers---1 fumble at the Cal 5 yard line----and then utterly quits on defense in the second half. Sick)

NEVADA -3.5 over Unlv------------Nevada is Home Off Bye. this specific condition went 5-1 for me last year in the football games I bet. Nevada didnt win at Northwestern, but they outgained them by 98 yards and NW benefited from +2 on the turnover ratio(Win 27-20)

CENTRAL MICHIGAN -3 over Northern Illinois---------No. Ill looking pretty weak losing to Eastern Michigan at home......Central did not fail to cover at home last year and this is a revenge game for them. CMU coming off bad loss to ND state due to -3 on the TO ratio. Northern Illinois' Qb has thrown 8 interceptions.(Win 35-10)

PURDUE -22 over Notre Dame---------Home revenge for Purdue. I can see them running up the score; these teams hate each other.(Lose 33-19)

Friday, September 28, 2007

COL(Francis) -125 over Az(Webb)-------Rockies have scored at least 4 runs against Webb in each of their 5 meetting with him this year: they can hit him. Az has only 2 runs in 13 innings facing Francis. Rockies psychological edge has to be considered; they've won 11 straight and could make the wild card or win the division. Offensively, they are dominating and Arizona.....the biggest mystery of the season is how a team that hits .251 could possibly win a division. The Pittsburgh Pirates have 11 more runs than Arizona has, yet Az has 21 more wins than they do. I want in on this Rockies win-fest (Lose 4-2....Webb comes up big; his BEST start vs Col this year. great)

SF(Corriea) over Lad(Wells) (Lose 8-3.....WORST Correia start)
SF vs La UNDER 8.5 (+100)----------Correia just too good, Dodgers offense gone to sleep. Wells has shut down the Giants twice but he's been easy to hit this year (Lose 8-3)

CIN(Arroyo) +130 over Cubs(Zambrano)-----------Reds Kill Zambrano this year (Lose 6-0)

WASH(Redding) +215 over Phi(Hamels)--------Nationals offense is hot, at least for the last 3 games. This is too big a number for them vs a lhp(Lose 6-0....Fuck this goddam shit)

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

*SEATTLE(Washburn) -113 (BCLI line -157) over Cleve(Sowers) (Win 3-2)
SEATTLE -1.5 (+170) over Cleve (Lose 3-2)
SEATTLE (1ST 5INNINGS ONLY) -125------------Nobody in baseball hits for a higher average vs lhp's than Seattle. Sowers hasnt pitched since June.....he doesnt walk people(seattle doesnt take walks) and he's extemely hittable, a perfect pitcher for the Mariners to rock. Cleveland in already locked in to the playoffs and doesnt need to win; they've gone 4, 4, 3, 6,4 runs per game their last 5 games. That's not very good. Washburn has thrown some good games lately against the Yankees and Angels. (Lose 2-0.......1st inning, Ichiro doubles right on schedule, then he's thrown out stealing 3rd. Hit, walk, runner on 2nd tries to steal 3rd, gets thrown out. I saw this game and I can tell you: BOTH RUNNERS WERE SAFE STEALING THIRD AND WERE CALLED OUT! what a fucking joke)

MILWAUKEE(Villanueva) -200 (BCLI line -165) over Stl(Thompson) (Lose 7-3)
MILWAUKEE -1.5 (-105) OVER Stl------------Villanueva has been shutting teams down since he became a starter. he walks 1 every 2innings which isnt good, but he's hard to hit. Brewers have 22 runs in their last 2 games, they have a real chance to beat out the Cubs to get in. I cant imagine them losing this one to Thompson, less than a middling pitcher, a bad one. Looks like Pujols IS playing now but i dont care; Cardinals offense is feeble (Lose 7-3...Villanueva does the job and the Brewers offense just comes up with nothing. Neither the Brewers or the Cubs can hit under pressure. They don't hit when the SHOULD hit. And the Mets don't hit when they should hit(of course, the Mets have deep psychological problems....perhaps the Brewers and Cubs do too). It's gonna be the Phillies, Rockies or Padres coming out of the National League)

TIGERS(Jurrjens) +130 (BCLI line Det -107) over Minn(Santana) (Win 9-4)
Tigers vs Twins UNDER 8-------------Jurrjens is holding rhb's to a .140 average and Detroit is slugging .477 and hitting .292 vs lhp's. Twins offense is just so weak. Tigers are theoretically still in the race. At least one of these bets should win (OFF---Game called for rain in the 6th. Lucky for me)

ROCKIES(Fogg) +112 (BCLI line +120) over Lad(Lowe) (Win 2-0)
Rockies vs Lad OVER 8.5----------------Never thought Col's offense could get this good; they are ripping and their average is up to .279....slugging up to .435. Dodgers are slugging .406. With this kind of momentum, Col could definitely get into the playoffs and are 3 back of AZ with 5 to play. They rocked Lowe in Lowe's last start. Dodgers scored 14 over their last two games, i can see them scoring ok off Fogg (Lose 2-0.....Wow, Fogg comes up big here)

METS(Humber) -185 over Wash(Bacsik) (Lose 9-6)
METS -1.5 over Wash-------------------Mets are scoring well and consistently. And they hit very well vs lhp's. Bacsik did well vs the Mets earlier but Mets should hit him; he's weak. Humber must be pretty good if they're starting him here. Mets are only 2 games up on the Phillies and havent really clinched anything. Nationals bullpen has been ATROCIOUS recently. (Lose 9-6......Humber does well for 4, after the 4th inning Mets lead 6-2. As soon as Humber starts to lose it, you gotta get El Duque in there. You NEED to win this one. But guess who comes in? J. Smith! Who the fuck is J. Smith? J. Smith is gonna take the loss here IN A GAME YOU NEED TO WIN?!! Hernandez comes in to mop up. I can't believe this idiocy. Willie Randolph is a fucking moron. Look, the Mets WILL blow it. They are blowing as I type this. But this is the key idiocy. They ROCK Bacsik in this game and then can't close. Stupid. Mets were a decent bet early in the season, but after that they got Psych-problems and just refused to hit when they should have. After this stupidity(I would have let Hernandez start this game), they are done and beyond help)

CIN(Shearn) -118 over Hou(Rodriguez)-----------Astros horrible vs rhp's and Shearn has dont well enough to deserve a bet. Wandy's been rocked once by Reds in two starts and Reds have made great strides in hitting lhp's in the 2nd half of the season(the new guys, Keppinger and Hopper KILL lhp's and also brandon Phillips: all three above .340 vs lhp's) (Pitching Change---Gutierrez started)

Monday, September 24, 2007

*NEW ORLEANS -4 over Tennessee----------Saints coming off 2 ROAD losses.....coming Home for the first KNOW that THEY know that they need to improve, come up big here. I can hear their coaches...."THIS IS YOUR SEASON, YOU WANNA GET TO THE SUPER BOWL? THEN YOU GOTTA GET THIS ONE DONE!" Were the Saints expected to be bad? No......Just like McNabb wasnt expected to be bad last monday night, but he was....then he came back yesterday and torched a team. Saints were MINUS 2 on the turnover ratio to Indy and MINUS 2 on the turnover ratio to Tampa Bay. What happens if the turnover ratio is even in tonight's game? In my opinion: a blowout...a torching......42-9. yes, Tennessee covered against Indy last week, almost winning....impressive while even giving 1 turnover to Indy on the ratio. BUT BUT BUT.....that was at HOME in Tennessee's house. Can I discount Tennessee's road win at Jacksonville? YES! Jacksonville's offense(specifically their rushing) sucks. Titans scored only 13 points. With a fired up D playing at home, Saints' D(and offense probably) WILL be improved relative to its first two road games. And you cant really expect the Saints will be losing the TO ratio again(since TO's are highly unpredictable). Yes, this is a revenge game for Ten since NO beat them last year......revenge motivation worries me a bit. But in my methodological valuation for football, Home field advantage trumps everything. Remember what the Saints did in their first game last year when Atlanta came down as 4 point favorites? 23-3 Saints. Vick===Young?? Yeah, they say its 'different this time'. I dont think it will be.(Lose 31-14......My bad, Saints played Tenn in a preseason game last year. Didnt realize that so it wasnt really a revenge game. Also didnt realize how athletic Tenn's whole team is and how slow and weak New Orleans is. Saints give 4 turnovers here which makes them MINUS 8 on the ratio for the season. But this thing was really coaching: 1) Coaches are supposed to come up with new plays in situations like this and the Saints just werent fooling anybody with their shit. 2) 3-0 game in the 1st quarter, 4th and inches at the 50 yard line....and the Saints try a bomb?! Listen up! THIS IS WHY THE SAINTS DEFENSE QUIT IN THE 2ND HALF. In that situation, that early in the game, you punt to show your defense you have confidence in them. And when New Orleans got ahead in the 3rd quarter, that is when the crowd should have stoked the momentum and incited the blowout. The defense should have stepped it up and locked it down.....but they were pissed at the coach's stupid-ass 4th and inches decision so they didnt try as hard. A bad loss, but NOT such a bad bet)

Sunday, September 23, 2007

JETS -3 (-115) over Miami----------Jets coming home after road loss, time to fix mistakes and get a win here. Jets have played New England(clearly the best team in the NFL by far) and Baltimore(they were 13-3 last year). That's a strong 2 game schedule so far and Miami will be much MUCH weaker than either of those teams. Jets, of course, lost both of those games, but Pennington was hurt in the first game. Today he is listed as "probable" so he may come back and dominate. Chambers, Miami's best WR is "questionable"(Push 31-28.....Buy the fucking half-point dumbass.......Chambers plays and gets 100 yards)

KANSAS CITY -3 over Minnesota-------------Minnesota's QB, Jackson, who was only a 53% passer, is "doubtful". And if he cant play, that means Bollinger, who is horrible. Strength of schedule? yeah, KC lost to the Bears, but covered AND OUTGAINED THE BEARS in offensive yards....the Bears: a good team. And they lost to Houston(a team which may be quite good this year) as they gave up 2 more turnovers than Houston did. The key is that both those games were road games for KC.....they looked bad, people say they're bad, they probably are bad, but this is their first home game and its worth betting on some degree of improvement. Last year KC was 5-2 ATS at home.(Push 13-10.......Actually it was Holcomb, who passed 50%)

Lions vs Eagles OVER 44-------------And incredible 93 passing attempts in the last Lions game, an OT game.....and somehow the total went UNDER! That's highly anomalous. Usually 60+ passing attempts in a game gives a bettably high percentage chance to put the total OVER. And in the first Lions game, the total went over with 76 passing attempts. In may very well be the case that the Lions are both pass-happy and have a weak secondary. So maybe the Eagles pass a lot here. McNabb was terrible last game...another anomaly. If he improves just a bit(he's a 54% passer this year so far), this should go over.(Win 56-21.....Wow, McNabb improves to 80% and there's 76 passing attempts in this game)

Saturday, September 22, 2007

*COLORADO STATE +7 over Houston(Lose 38-27)
COLORADO STATE +250 over Houston----------CSU quite simply should have beaten Cal, they had 6 more 1st downs than Cal, turned the ball over 3 more times than Cal and outgained Cal in offensive yards(and Cal is supposed to be good...they did beat Tennessee). And CSU is COMING off a bye! Their Qb is at 71% this year whereas Houston's good 67% QB, Kolb, is graduated, gone, outta there. Houston beat what? CSU lost to Colorado AT Colorado, but they still outgained them by 56 yards. CSU was a bad team last year while Houston was a good team last year; but this not last year and this dog is live.(Lose 27-38.....Im telling you: this is the kind of shit that happens when you bet road teams. 1) Houston put in new hero-QB Keenum in the 2nd quarter after things were going bad for them. He starts to kick ass. 2) Colorado State's defense TOTALLY QUIT in the 2nd half. Just fucking totally. FUCK road teams)

ILLINOIS -2.5 over Indiana-----------I dont like to play too many road favorites but I've seen Illinois in action and they are good and i plan to bet on them a lot. This is a revenge game for Illinois as they lost to Indiana last year. Indiana beat Western Mich but they benefited from +4 on the turnover ratio and allowed over 20 a MAC team. Then they allowed over 20 points to ANOTHER mac team, Akron. Illinois should have beaten Missouri but were -3 on the turnover ratio. Illinois is good and I'll lay the points and go against the home team to have them here.(Win 27-14)

CENTRAL FLORIDA -7 over Memphis----------CF is coming off a 32-35 loss to Texas, a huge team, and the turnover margin was even: it was no fluke. They've covered all their lines this year and beaten NC State on the road. Memphis.....hasnt done anything impressive.(Win 56-20....CF was -3 on the turnover ratio which makes this much more impressive. Look to bet Central Florida again)

MICHIGAN +3 (-115) over Penn State--------PSU has played Buffalo, ND and Florida International. No, that's not a real schedule yet....who cares if you beat those teams down? I've seen all of Michigan's games; they're improving(or really SHOULD be improving) and Mallet has upside(he's not at Michigan for no good reason). Morelli is gonna be more mobile than ND's sorry QB, but he's no Dennis Dixon from Oregon or that App State Qb. PSU and Mich both had Notre Dame at home and.......PSU let them score 10 points! Michigan didnt do that. Michigan has good momentum here, they've destroyed a bad team, they've made their mistakes, I dont think they're "shook" anymore, and they're ready to beat a good team(altho you cant KNOW if PSU is actually good with their ytd schedule).(Win 14-9.....even on the turnover ratio: this win was legit)

ARKANSAS -7 over Kentucky-----------Coming home off the road-loss to Alabama, I like Ark's motivation here. Kentucky's win vs Louisville is tainted by the +2 turnover ratio they benefited from. Their Qb scares me a little, especially considering how Bama torched Ark through the air last game, but Ark had good pass D against Troy. And I think Ark will be able to be as effective on the ground, with their main offensive weapon, Mcfadden, against Kentucky, as they could be against any other team. Kent State rushed for 324 yards against Kentucky! Bottom line: motivation, correction of defensive mistakes at home, Mcfadden rolls......and they cover the 7.(Lose 42-29.....Correct: Ark rushed for 6.6 ypc; that's pretty good. Freak roughing the kicker penalty ruined this bet. Incorrect: Arkansas defense absolutely DID NOT improve. In fact, Ark's defense sucks....Dick sucks as a passer(46% here). I will avoid betting Arkansas)

NORTHWESTERN +23.5 over Ohio State------------NW's loss to Duke was a fluke; a terrible humiliation and I dont know how it happened considering NW outgained Duke 506 to 309 and got TEN MORE 1ST DOWNS than Duke did. Nw is supposed to be better this year, they should be mad, ready to redeem themselves....and this is a revenge game for them as they lost to OSU last year. OSU's win last week was also a fluke as they got +4 on the turnover ratio. I think OSU is overrated, they lost their good offense to the NFL......I'll take these points(Lose 7-58.....totally wrong about everything. Duke is for real)

Clemson vs NC State UNDER 52.5-----------Nc St was -6 on the turnover ratio in their loss to BC and -2 when lost to Central Florida. I think they come out better than expected here, their defense steps it up at home and they try to run early, since their Qb is not too good. Clemson should probably try to run also as NC State's pass defense was good in the Boston College game(their rush defense was bad, however, that's why I dont wanna take NC State to cover, but here at home I think they'll do a bit better.(Lose 42-20.....Clemson rushed too well...but they also had a surprisingly high 39 pass atts. Incorrect: NC state's D came with nothing, Clemson rushed well and passed at 64%. NC state was -3 on the TO ratio)

SMU vs TCU OVER 52-----------One of TCU's Rb's is questionable. That is one reason TCU may pass more than expected. The other is that SMU has gotten destroyed by passing in all their games, and by bad teams. North Texas' Qb threw for 600 yards vs SMU......and SMU still won. SMU's Qb can also throw for a lot of yards, and I don't see TCU being particularly good vs the pass. And if TCU gets ahead, as the 23 point spread predicts, Willis could be throwing all the time(Lose 21-7.....TCU's 'questionable' RB, Brown, played and did well....Willis passed for only 200 yards)

WAKE FOREST -3 (-120) over Maryland----------Skinner is probable for this game, he didnt play for WF vs Nebraska and WF still almost won. Skinner was like 66% last year. WF didnt cover vs Army....but that was without Skinner at QB. At BC, WF did ok, but lost...then they came with 3 vs Nebraska.....those are decent teams. Maryland has played one non-board team, failed to cover against Florida International, and failed to cover vs West Virginia. That's not too impressive(Win 31-24....Skinner plays and does well)

NORTH CAROLINA +14.5 (-130) over South Florida----------Revenge game for NC....they played Virginia very close, lost, but were victimized by a -3 on the turnover ratio. Their QB Yates looks ok at 65%. South Florida beat Auburn but benefited from an enormous +5 turnover ratio....and then Auburn was exposed as overrated when Miss State came to their home field and beat them. SF doesnt normally score a lot of points, so if NC can score just a little bit, I think they cover this(Lose 37-10.....Yates terrible, 40% and 4 pics. NC's defense terrible. Im not gonna bet NC again)

EAST CAROLINA +24.5 over West Virginia------WV only 2-4 ATS at home last year....EC played Virginia Tech pretty close on the road.....I think this is too many points(Lose 48-7.....Very weak reasoning here. Why the fuck did I make this bet?)

NAVY -8 over Duke teased with Central Florida -1 teased with Arkansas -1 (+180)---------Navy should be pissed after losing to Ball State so I like their motivation(they did outgain Ball State and were -1 on the turnover ratio). Navy looks like a pure rushing team and Duke hasnt really stopped anyone on the ground. And, of course, Duke's win against Northwestern was a total fluke(Lose by 5 and 14.....Duke was -1 on the TO ratio and they still covered. Duke is for real)

NEBRASKA -17 over Ball State teased with East Carolina +30.5----------Nebraska beat Nevada 52-10 so they can blow teams out. And they'll be motivated after the loss to USC. Can Ball State make their 3rd consecutive road-cover? I dont think so.(Lose by 16 and 10.5.......Ball State is fucking good)

Friday, September 21, 2007

*METS(Martinez) -1.5 (-115) over Fla(Olsen)-------------Olsen is getting destroyed this year, and he's walking people. Mets hit lhp's and Martinez.....with 17 k's in 17 innings, he looks to be the same guy as he used to be.(Win 9-6)

*WASHINGTON(Hill) +104 (BCLI line Wash -135) over Phi(Eaton)(Lose 6-3)
*Wash +100 (1st 5innings only) over Phi---------------Eaton is no match for Hill. Hill pitched a 6inning 1 hitter vs Philly on August 6th while Eaton has given up 4 earned runs or more in 8 of his last 10 starts. And Washington's offense, while they havent done well against bullpens lately, they have TORCHED starters. See the game against the Mets and Maine: Maine took his worst rocking of the season (11 hits and 8 runs) against the Nationals; and he's a good pitcher. And altho Washington's bullpen sucked hard last night, its still a lot better than the Phillies' bullpen.(Lose 6-3)

TAMPA(Kazmir) +130 (1st 5innings only) over Bos(Beckett)(Lose 3-1)
Tampa vs Bos UNDER 4.5 (-125) (1st 5innings only)------------Kazmir has dominated Boston twice this year and gotten hit by them once. Manny Ramirez and Youklis are hurting and may not play. Drew......forget about him; he doesnt hit lhp's. Altho the Red Sox were hitting well, they've recently been annihilated by Clemens, Mcgowan and (incredibly last game) Litsch. never know. In my opinion, Pena will get blown away by Beckett(actually, I just checked: He has 3 K's in 3 ab's vs Beckett this year) so the under may be the better bet.(Win 3-1....Correct: Pena 0-3 with BB and K)

Thursday, September 20, 2007

COLORADO(Jimenez) -115 (BCLI line -125) over Lad(Lowe) (Win 9-4)
WASH(Bergmann) +116 (BCLI line +100) over Phi(Lohse) (Lose 7-6....absolutely fucking sick; Nats bullpen gives up 5 earned runs in 3 innings to lose it. But the offense could have done better than 0 runs in 7 innings against the Phillies terrible bullpen)

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

STL(Wainwright) -101 over Phi(Moyer) (Win 2-1)
STL -1.5 (+180) over Phillies------------In 13 innings vs Phillies this year, Wainwright has allowed only 2 runs. It has been 7 games since Wainwright allowed more than 2 runs in a game. Its definitely time for Stl to break out of their offensive malaise; Moyer is not hard to hit and Cardinals have improved vs lhp's (Lose 2-1.......disgustingly weak performance by Cardinals offense against a weak pitcher; this team is nothing without Pujols)

REDS(Shearn) +165 (BCLI line +118) over Cubs(Lilly) (Lose 3-2)
Reds +150 (1st 5innings only) over Cubs------------------Lilly gave up 6 runs to Reds on Aug 15th. Reds continue to improve on offense with their average vs lhp's up to .258. Shearn has faced the Mets and the Brewers(twice) and his numbers are good (Push 2-2.......another good game for Shearn)

Mets(Pelfrey) vs Wash(Chico) OVER 9.5(-105)---------------Mets have hit better vs lhp's all year and are now at .288 vs them. Chico was rocked by Mets August 17th. Washington's offense has produced more than 6 runs in 3 of their last 4 games and Pelfrey......a middling pitcher who wont be able to stop a hot offense (Win 8-4)

BOSTON(Buchholz) -145 (BCLI line -160) over Tor(Litsch) (Lose 6-1)
Boston -1.5 (+100) over Tor-----------------------BLUE JAYS OFFENSE FUCKING SUCKS! Absolutely despicable hitting yesterday by Blue Jays. This team cannot hit and has no speed. Litsch has given 14 runs in his last 11 innings and was rocked by Boston September 3rd. (Lose 6-1......pathetic offense by the Red Sox....and another UNDER on the bluejays that i could have bet and won, but didnt)

San Fran(Zito) vs Az(Davis) UNDER 8.5------------Two offenses that are weaker vs lhp's and weak in general. Zito has really turned it around, he's pitched some really good games lately and he's done good vs Az(Lose 6-4....Zito is such a fucking asshole; 6 great starts and then this shit against a weak team)

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

TORONTO(Burnett) -142 over Bos(Lester) (Win 4-3)
Tor -160 (1st 5innings Only) over Boston--------------Burnett is such the best pitcher in the game right now(25 hits allowed in last 50 innings) and if Boston got shut down by McGowan and Clemens, Burnett should shut them down too. Blue Jays MIGHT be getting serious on offense(the game where they got shut out by the lhp Burres was 4 games ago and they've scored well in the 3 games since then). Lester's ok, but he's not unhittable. rhb's hit .284 off Lester and the Blue Jays DEFINITELY hit better vs lhp's and definitely should win this game. Considering that in 4 of the last 7(consecutive) masterpieces Burnett has thrown he has taken either a no-decision or a loss, Toronto's offense OWES him a win. But i dont trust them enough to play the run-line (Lose 2-1.......Sick offense from Toronto, but this was another failure on my part: Where was my UNDER bet here? Toronto is 87unders---60overs this year. Their offense has failed me repeatedly this year........why not just play the damn under? They had every reason to hit, and they only got 3 against Lester. They FUCKING SUCK)

BALT(Leicester) +180 (1st 5 innings only) over Nyy(Mussina)------------On april 6th, the Orioles rocked Mussina for 6 runs in 4innings.....and Mussina went on to have a season where almost everyone hit him. good price and NO EXPOSURE TO ORIOLES BULLPEN! (Lose 6-0)

TAMPA(Hammel) +210 (1st 5 innings only) over Laa(Lackey)--------Tampa has scored 6 or more in their last 3 games and Hammel has thrown 3 good games vs Nyy, Sea and Tor in his last 3 starts (Lose 1-0.....another decent start by Hammel)

CLEVE(Westbrook) +120 over Det(Verlander)---------------Indians rocked Verlander Aug 22nd and the next day Westbrook pitched an 8 innings 5 hit shutout against the Tigers. Tigers bullpen simply doesnt not have it together and I dont think they've been scoring enough to justify a -130 price(Win 7-4)

Monday, September 17, 2007

*TEXAS(Volquez) +106 (BCLI line Tx -130) over Minn(Slowey)-----------Rangers have scored about 61 runs in their last 8(about 7+ runs per game). And Minnesota.......they havent averaged 7 runs per game in a long time, if ever. Volquez looks like he could be good, only 3 starts so far. But Slowey......doesnt walk people but very hittable (.314) and if Tx is hitting now, they should hit him. (Lose 5-4......3 outs away from the win in the 9th....then HR.....then an easy pop fly to THE FUCKING SECOND BASEMAN, IAN FUCKHEAD KINSLER, and its dropped, with 2 outs, scoring the winning run from 2nd. Utter and irrevocable shit)

PHIL(Kendrick) -130 (BCLI line -140) over Stl (Win 13-11)
Phil -1.5 (+120) over Stl------------I dont care who Stl starts; it'll be either Thompson or Reyes. The Phillies have gotten 10 hits 6 runs off Thompson this year in only 4 innings. Reyes.....he's been doing bad. Kendrick shut down the Cardinals July 13th and is going for redemption after a bad start last start. The best reason that I like these bets, tho, is how weak Stl has been: 2, 2, 3, 4, 1, 2, 3 runs per game over their last 7. Phillies have a competent pitcher going and their offense surely can outscore what Stl has been putting up (Win 13-11......pathetic Phillies bullpen)

WASH(Redding) +115 (BCLI line Wash -110) over Mets(Laurence)-------Batters hitting .330 off Lawrence. Redding is much better than that and has done well vs the Mets already. Over the last 6 games, the Nationals are outscoring the Mets (Win 12-4)

TAMPA(Jackson) +190 (1ST 5INNINGS ONLY) over Laa(Escobar)----------Jackson is a gamble; he can either shut you down or get rocked. But with Tampa having scored 15 runs in their last 2 games, and Escobar having given up 21 hits in his last 13 innings, I like this price for 1st 5innings. (Lose 7-6......3 unearned runs for the Angels in the 1st 5 innings while Tampa EARNED all 6 runs they got off Escobar. I can't believe this shit)

EAGLES -6.5 over Redskins------------Coming home after a road loss to Green Bay, you gotta like Philly's motivation here. And you can discount that loss a bit because Philly turned the ball over 1 more time than the Packers did AND because the Packers destroyed the Giants yesterday, proving an unexpected strength within them. Redskins victory over Miami 16-13 deserves a bit of respect considering Wash was -1 on the turnover ratio, but it was at HOME whereas the Eagles loss was on the ROAD. Miami showed up weak at home vs you could say that Washington, AT HOME, beat a weak team(but didnt cover). I think Philly's good here for a small bet.(Lose 20-12....No, the Eagles suck. Not only is McNabb an ugly black QB, he's a terrible black QB. No speed on the Eagles, no skills, nothing. They are an utterly pathetic football team.)

Saturday, September 15, 2007

JACKSONVILLE -10 over Atlanta---------Vikings were certainly not expected to be a great team.....yet they hold Atlanta to 3 points? Jax defense is better than Minnesota's and they should have good motivation after losing to Tennessee. Jax did 4 home blowouts last year against the Jets, Tennessee, Giants (26-10) and the Colts. Those are some decent teams and there is reason to suspect that Atlanta, this year, is worse than those teams were last year (Lose 13-7.....TERRIBLE rushing offense by Jacksonville)

NEW ENGLAND -3 (-135) over San diego-------------Chargers covered last week but benefited from a +2 turnover ratio vis-a-vis the Bears. I saw the Patriots last week and they looked like they could do anything they wanted to; they just looked too good. With good receivers this year, NE is definitely improved. I don't know is SD is, though. Tomlinson didnt do much vs the Bears and NE's rush defense was BETTER, slightly, than the Bears' last year (Win 38-14)

New Orleans +3 over Tampa teased with NE +3 teased with Jax -3.5 (+160)------------You have to believe the Saints are better than what they did their first game; they had 2 more turnovers than the Colts. The Saints are supposed to be better this year and with Cadillac Williams injured---and listed as questionable-----they should have a major offensive advantage here, despite playing at Tampa. And I think Tampa's offense COULD be just as weak as their 6 points against Seattle seems to indicate.(Lose by 14.......Saints are pathetic but this was a really bad bet. Tampa had Home-off-Road-Loss motivation......New Orleans certainly hadn't proved anything yet......I have Reggie Bush on my fantasy team, maybe that's why i did this. Bottom Line: TERRIBLE bet. This was not a BCLI-caliber bet.)
COLORADO(Jimenez) -160 (BCLI line -177) over Fla(Mitre) (Lose 10-2)
Col -1.5 (+120) over Fla---------Mitre has a problem......Jimenez is doing great. (Lose 10-2......first time in 17 starts that Mitre allows only 1 earned run)

TAMPA(Kazmir) -120 (1ST 5INNINGS ONLY) over Sea(Ramirez)-------huge pitching advantage for Tampa.......take the 1st 5inn line and you dont have to take a chance on Tampa's bullpen (Win 6-1)

WASH(Bergmann) -103 (BCLI line -120) over Atl(Cormier)------Bergmann simply too good vs the Braves this year to ignore(he's usually good vs everyone). He's looking like 18innings pitched, only 10 hits allowed vs the Braves. Cormier allowing rhb's to hit .349 vs him....Wash bats right. Washington should have won last night but their bullpen blew it, i think they should get this one(Win 7-4)

Friday, September 14, 2007

WASHINGTON +3.5 over Ohio State-----------Last week, OSU led 3-2 at halftime.........against Akron! True, OSU had 5 turnovers against only 1 for Akron but still.......AKRON! OSU has, of course, lost all of their good offensive players but also more than half of their defensive line. You can't assume they'll be anywhere near as good as they were. Washington has a new freshman QB who has rushed for over 80 yards in each of the first two games. Linemakers didnt favor Wash at home against Boise State and Wash won by 14 points. Washington COULD be significantly better than last year; OSU will definitely be much worse. Add the home field AND points and this is clearly a BCLI type of bet. (Lose 33-14......Total 2nd half collapse. Washington won the 1st half 7-3......then blocked field goal, 68 yard pass play for TD, then fumble on the kickoff. Then quit. This team totally quit)

MICHIGAN -2.5 over Notre Dame teased with ILLINOIS -5.5 over Syracuse (-120)-------The difference for Michigan here is that they will not be facing a "spread" offense or a fast, black QB. They will be facing a slow, white QB. Michigan was beaten by ingenious play-calling and fast black players in their first two games. I don't think, after seeing both ND games, that ND has what Oregon and Appalachian State had. Mich has their new freshman QB, Mallet. If he can't connect with receivers(and he should be able to after practicing for a week KNOWING that he would start), it could be a running game and Hart, who has 'guaranteed' a win, should be able to exceed whatever ND can do on offense. Michigan's defense has proved nothing; today they get an easy chance to redeem themselves. (Win by 35.5 and 15.5)

MICHIGAN -2.5 teased with WASHINGTON +10 (-120) (Lose by 9)

ILLINOIS -12 over Syracuse(Win 41-20)
TORONTO(Litsch) -172 (BCLI line -175) over Balt(Burres) (Lose 6-2)
TOR -1.5 (+110) over Balt----------Toronto has not been hitting well, but I'll step out here and say they breakout against the lhp Burres. Burres' ERA has gone from 4.45 to 5.85 in the last month. He's hittable and he walks 1 every 1.7 innings(that's extremely wild). Tor hits .297 vs lhp's and slugs an incredible .486 vs lhp's. They SHOULD rock Burres, the only risk is their recent weak hitting. And when it comes to bullpens, Toronto's is the THIRD best in ERA, while the Orioles bullpen is one of the worst of all time and 2nd worst in ERA ahead of Tampa's.(Lose 6-2.....phenomenally weak offense by BlueJays. Then they score 6 in the first innings the next day. Thanks. Assholes)

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Tor(Burnett) vs Nyy(Kennedy) UNDER 10 (-135)-----------Toronto is terrible vs rhp's....and they didnt do that good vs the last lhp they faced. So, no, I dont think there's enough here to justify a bet on Tor to win. But you can ignore Burnett; he has been torching teams to the tune of 21 hits allowed in his last 42 innings. On april 26th, Burnett did shut down the Yankees. Yanks have rocked a couple of good pitchers lately( Marcum and Bannister ) but.....I still like Burnett. rhb's hit .290 off Kennedy(in his only two games) but I dont think the Bluejays can be trusted to hit rhp's right now. (Win 2-1)

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

REDS(Arroyo) -147 over Stl(Reyes)---------Cardinals failing to hit Belisle yesterday is strong evidence of their offensive state(its weak). Belisle is hittable. Reyes was rocked out hard by the Reds August 31st and lhb's hit him well. Cincinatti's offense has gone 7, 5, 3, 7, 7, 11 runs per game over their last 6. Arroyo is doing pretty well now; he has faced Stl a lot this year, dominating them twice, and giving 6 runs another time and 3 runs vs them another time.(Win 5-1)

Monday, September 10, 2007

SAN FRAN -2.5 (-160) over Arizona------------49ers got some new players on defense.....allegedly GOOD players. Going with the 9ers' here you've got a home team on monday night(betting the home team got BCLI a 33-24---57.89% record on all home games last year) AND you have the revenge factor(this factor went 4-4---50% for BCLI last year) because Az beat the 49er's TWICE last year. Motivation should be good here. SF beat Seattle and Minnesota, the Rams and Oakland playing at home last year. After Leinart came in for AZ, they lost to Oakland, Green Bay and Minnesota on the road......and then beat the Rams and SF on the road. Overall, Az was 2-5 on the road. Early information is that AZ's offensive line is inexperienced and the team lacks "depth".(Win 20-17......Alex Smith to Darrell Jackson combo did not look good. With Gore the only real offensive threat , and Sf's defense being improved, SF should be an under team, and certainly the under was the proper bet in this game)
*WASHINGTON(Hill) +100 (BCLI line Wash -127) over Fla(Olsen)---------the difference between the hittability of these pitchers is massive. Hill pitched a 5 inning NO HITTER against Florida recently and no, Florida has not broken out of its lengthy offensive mediocrity. Hitters hit .310 off Olsen this year and he's walking people. Nationals hit a lot better vs lhp's at .268. And they simply have no excuse to lose this game. (Win 5-4)

*TORONTO(Halladay) -117 (BCLI line -105) over Det(Rogers) (Lose 5-4)
Tor -1.5 (+140) over Det----------------Wow, Blue Jays are murdering lhp's. They hit .295 vs lhp's and are slugging an incredible .485 against them. Rogers has thrown some good fact, he has 4 good games and in 3 games he was rocked. With Halladay pitching so deep into games now(he actually went 10 innings against the Tigers April 13th), you have to give Tor a chance here against this lhp. They earned it. (5-4......An absolutely sick joke. Janssen needs to get just 1 out and Toronto wins; he give up 3 hits plus 2 runs and loses it. But I'll give Toronto credit for letting Halladay pitch in the 9th....he earned the right to stay by shutting down the Tigers the whole game. And Toronto's offense should have gotten more than 2 off Rogers, so they have to be held responsible for their weakness too. Should of been on the 1st 5inn bet in this one)

TAMPA(Kazmir) +145 (FIRST 5INNINGS ONLY on Betus) over Bos(Schilling)--------If you take the 1st 5inning line, I think this is an excellent bet. You get all Kazmir, who pitched a 6 inning 4 hitter against Bos on August 14th, with no exposure to the weak Devil Ray bullpen. And you get a Devil Ray offense that, while they may be slowing down, has been on a recent rampage. Schilling doesnt walk people but he's been very hittable this year(Win 1-0)

Sunday, September 09, 2007

TAMPA(Shields) -131 (BCLI line -154) over Tor(Litsch) (Win 3-2)
Tampa -1.5 (+155) over Toronto-------------------Tampa was shut down by good pitchers Mcgowan and Burnett, but before that they were murdering middling pitchers and destoying bullpens. Litsch is a middling, average pitcher.....they should pick up where they left off. And today, with Shields, a pitcher that can always go into the 8th inning and usually doesnt get rocked, i dont think you can ignore Tampa. BlueJays usually dont score high, and they're much worse vs rhp's.(Lose 3-2)

Saturday, September 08, 2007

*TEXAS(Gabbard) -107 (BCLI line -158) over Oak(Gaudin)---------Wow, how could this line be so wrong? Rangers have rocked Gaudin not once but twice, on Aug 7th and July 17th. Gaudin's ERA was 2.41 on June 3rd......and now its 4.06. He's become hittable, rockable and wild. Gabbard may walk some people sometimes, but hitters have hit in the low .200's against him all year. I like him. A's offense showing no particular skill vs lhp's at .252, and a profound overall offensive weakness all year. I didnt know this until recently but Oakland's bullpen is not so great, ranking only 22nd of all teams in ERA with 21 Blown Saves against the Rangers 9 BS's and a high 4th best ranking in ERA. (Pitching Change.....Unreal: Rangers put in Mendoza for 2 innings, Gaudin gets rocked(which was part of this bet) and A's get beat by Rangers bullpen(which was another part of this bet) And guess who doesnt fucking get paid?)

KANSAS CITY(Bannister) +143 (BCLI line +110) over Nyy(Pettitte)---------Certainly, the Yanks offense is better, but in their last 7 games, look at who they've been shut down by: Hammel(shocking!), Sonnanstine(shocking!), Felix Hernandez(believable), Meche(improbable) and Washburn. Royals know they can beat anybody with Bannister on the hill; he has been great and he's given up more than 4 earned runs in a game only once this year. Pettitte has beaten me too much this year, but he definitely didnt win as a -330 favorite last start.....(Lose 11-5)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN -3 over Toledo----------CMU will have good motivation here coming home after being destroyed at Kansas. Cmu DID NOT FAIL to cover a line at home last year while Toledo, returning 16 starters(which is bad cuz they sucked), was a bad road team getting only 1 win and 2 covers on the road. CMU has their 63% QB LeFevour back. (Win 52-31)

Psu vs Notre Dame UNDER 49.5 teased with UCLA -1.5---------Notre Dame's offense, their QB' cetera simply did not look good last week and there's a good chance they could be a horrible team this year. It looks like PSU lost a lot of their defensive line and one good linebacker. However, if their defense is anything close to last year, considering a probable extreme weakness in ND's offense, i think there's a chance ND will not score at all(not saying much considering they only got 3 last week). Penn State's defense allowed only 13 points to Wisconsin, 13 to Michigan State, 0 to Purdue, 12 to Illinois and 17 to Michigan. At home today, you have to like Psu's D against ND (Win by 8.5 and 8.5)

UCLA -7.5 over Byu------------With 20 returning starters from last year's team, a team which beat USC, a new QB(which is good because Cowan kind of sucked), and a good road cover against Stanford under their belt, I think UCLA is good for a bet here to see what Byu has got.
BYU was good last year(playing the weak Mountain West) but they lost their good 69% QB.(Win 27-17)

Psu vs Nd UNDER 43.5----------Don't know exactly how good Penn State's offense will be, but Morelli was only a 53% passer last year. ND's defense is supposed to be better this year(altho it didnt seem to show vs GT last week). Hopefully, Penn St won't score or pass too much(Win 31-10)

Friday, September 07, 2007

CWS(Vazquez) -119 (BCLI line -150) over Minn(Silva)-------Vazquez pitched 9inn vs Minn on July 8th as the Whitesox were getting 10 hits and 3 HR's off Silva. Both offenses are scoring very low, but Vazquez is much harder to hit than Silva (Win 11-10)

PITT(Gorzelanny) -105 (BCLI line +103) over Cubs(Hill) (Win 6-1)
PITT -1.5 (+175) over Cubs--------------Pirates hit much higher than the Cubs off lhp's and they slug higher off lhp's than the Cubs. 3 of Gorzelanny's last 4 starts have been....not so good, but he has done well vs the Cubs earlier in the season. Hill's numbers look very good, but sometimes he just gets rocked. I'd say he's gotten rocked 9 times this year out of his 27 starts. But his stats look so good because he has some games where he allows, like, only 3 hits.(Win 6-1)

Thursday, September 06, 2007

PITT(Bullington) +135 over Stl(Maroth)---------A bit of a no-brainer: if you like Pitt against lhp's(and you should), you should love them against Maroth, who gave up 7 runs, 9 hits in only 1 2/3 innings against the Pirates on August 1st. If I were the Cardinals' manager, I would start Reyes.....Thompson.....ANY rhp against Pitt. Pitt is not the team for Maroth to regain his confidence against. Jeez, Maroth's ERA has gone from 4.11 to 11.08 in just the last 5 games!(Lose 16-4......Correct! Maroth gives up 6 hits and comes out in the 2nd inning. I can't believe that BCLI has to suffer because RICK ANKIEL IS ON HUMAN GROWTH HORMONE. It's just not right)

Wednesday, September 05, 2007

COLORADO(Jimenez) -163 over Sf(Correia) (Lose 5-3)
COL -1.5 (+110) over Sf----------------Correia's 3 starts have been ok, but Colorado is averaging 6.5 runs per game over their last 5. And that's against good pitchers: Lincecum....rocked him last night, Cain......couldnt finish the 3rd inning, Webb.....beat him, Lowry......ripped for 7 runs in 3 innings. If Correia were anywhere near as good as those pitchers(all beaten by Rockies), he'd have more than 3 starts this year. By contrast, Giants offense(terrible all year) has averaged 2.5 runs per game over their last 7 games. And Jimenez, well, he was rocked by Atl and the Cubs, but in his 7 other starts(all against weak teams like the Giants) he has been dominant and very hard to hit. So with Col, you have a very promising rookie pitcher with an offense that is currently doing very well, going against a bullpen pitcher and an incredibly weak offense that is not scoring. (Lose 5-3......Correia is good. damn, I knew I wanted the UNDER on this one)

PITT(Armas) +145 (BCLI line +120) over Stl(Mulder) (Win 8-2)
PITT +1.5 (-145) over Stl---------------Pirates are up to .276 vs lhp's and they're slugging about 15 points higher vs lhp's than Stl is slugging against rhp's. Armas 4-hit the Cardinals for 6 innings recently(they didnt have Ankiel then), so i think you have to consider Pitt here. People remember Mulder winning a lot of games.......I seem to remember a hell of a lot of walks..... (Win 8-2......only 1 walk, but Pirates crushed Mulder)

WASH(Redding) -118 (BCLI line -127) over Fla(Mitre)-----------In the last month and a half, Mitre's ERA has gone from 2.81 to 4.57. He's been getting destroyed, and by weak offenses. Redding HAS walked 10 in his last 9 innings, but he's usually been pretty decent and pretty consistent. Marlins offense is, of course, better than Wash, but they've scored 4 runs or less in 13 of their last 19 games. In my opinion, their offense is becoming very mediocre. And Washington's bullpen is better than Florida's.(Win 6-4)

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

METS(Perez) -138 (BCLI line -135) over Cin(Belisle)-----------Though the Mets' offense has failed me time and again this year, they are averaging 7 runs a game over their last 5 games(and the Reds only average 3.9 over their last 5). Perez is A LOT better than Belisle. And because he is an lhp, Griffey, Dunn and Hamilton will be neutralized(either by not starting or not being able to hit Perez). Brandon Phillips DOES hit lhp's but he's just one player, and Belisle just gives up too many hits......Mets should take this easily.(Win 11-7)
BCLI 2007 Baseball has now moved up to 264-262 ( -.18units)

Since its inception, BCLI has gone like this:

+21.83units Regular Season Baseball 2006
+2.48units Post Season Baseball 2006
+5.19units Football 2006/07
(54-37 {59.3%} on -110 regular bets for +13.3units, -4.05units on teasers, -4.06units on moneylines)
+14.1units Basketball (90-69 {56.6%} )
-.18units Regular Season Baseball 2007

+43.42units Total

Monday, September 03, 2007

ROYALS(Greinke) +105 (BCLI line KC -107) over Tx(Loe)-----------Greinke was mysteriously lifted after less than 5innings in both of his recent starts........but he allowed no runs in either. We know the Royals can hit Loe because they rocked him on July 29th. Could Greinke pitch 6 or 7 innings in this game?(Win 8-1)

Sunday, September 02, 2007

TEXAS(Gabbard) +200 (BCLI line +140) over Laa(Lackey) (Win 8-7)
Texas +1.5 (-110) over Laa--------------Lackey has allowed 46 hits in his last 34 innings. At no time in the season has Gabbard been anywhere near that easy to hit. The Angels hit about 24 points higher than the Rangers but their slugging percentage is about the same. The Angels have scored 28 more runs this season than the Rangers. Texas has scored 5 or more runs in each of their last 4 games.......a weaker offense than the Angels, but if they can beat Escobar with Volquez, they can definitely win this one. Lackey pitches more innings per game than Gabbard, but does that, alone, make him better? I think not. This line is based too much on these teams' records.(Win 8-7)

Saturday, September 01, 2007

TAMPA(Jackson) +200 over Nyy(Kennedy) (Lose 9-6)
Tampa +1.5 (+100) over Nyy--------------------Jackson has beaten the Yankees once, he's beaten Boston, he's shut down Cleveland and done well against the Tigers. And now, Tampa has scored an incredible 70 runs in their last 7 games and they face a pitcher just up from the minor leagues. Is +200 enough juice to make this bet? I would say, yes......its more than enough. (Lose 9-6)

COL(Dessens) -111 over Az(Eveland)---------Eveland simply has not done anything good in his career. Rockies hit .274 vs lhp's and their offense out slugs Az's by 19 points. Dessens is not a great pitcher, but he has always done well vs rhb's. This season rhb's hit only .229 off him and AZ simply cant bat left outside of .230's hitting Tony Clark and Stephen Drew. Are the Rockies hitting? 7, 8, 1, 10........they got shut down by Cain(understandable) but other than that, they seem to be scoring well.(Lose 13-7)