Friday, November 30, 2007

Clippers Denver UNDER 205 (200) REST5 (Lose 123-107)

NEW MEXICO STATE +14(-130) over Fresno State (Win 30-23)
New Mexico State vs Fresno UNDER 66.5------------------NM home off the bye, lost to Fresno last year so its revenge for them. I look for NM to come out running to exploit Fresno's statistically weak rushing defense. If NM gets behind, they'll still have a shot with their 70% QB. Fresno HAS played a tougher schedule and is obviously a better team. But they seem to have about 7 injuries including 2 RB's after their big win against Kansas State. They're also guaranteed to play in a bowl, I think, even if they lose. Motivationally, NM definitely has the advantage.(Win 30-23......Wrong, NM DOESNT try to run. If they had, maybe they'd have done better)

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Utah Philadelphia OVER 190.5 (195) REST3(Win 106-95)

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Charlotte Miami UNDER 187.5 (185) REST6 (Lose 110-90)
Memphis New Jersey UNDER 203.5 (198) REST5 (Lose 110-103)
Atlanta Chicago UNDER 181 (188) REST5(Win 90-78)

Monday, November 26, 2007

Phoenix Golden State UNDER 229 (212.5) REST5(Lose 129-114)

Sunday, November 25, 2007

BEARS -1 over Denver-----------Home-off-road-loss for Chicago. After 3 consecutive losses at home, the Bears owe their fans a win. Grossman back in with a chance to redeem himself. But they dont really need to pass to beat Denver who has a bad rushing defense. If you think Denver is actually good after watching them beat Tennessee on Monday night, well, Tennessee outgained them by 70 yards and gave them 2 turnovers on the ratio. True, Denver, at home, beat Pittsburgh, but they got destroyed by SD and the Lions. (Win 37-34)

ARIZONA -9.5(-120) over San Francisco------------49ers simply do not score. They've played Seattle twice and scored a TOTAL OF 3 POINTS against them. After their bye week, San Fran scored 15 at the Giants. Last week, at home against Stl, a weaker defense than AZ, San Fran scored 9 points. They HAVE beaten Arizona earlier this year in their first game. They got lucky to do that. They scored 20 points in that game and that was the highest point total that they've put up all year. Arizona has scored over 20 points 6 times and over 30 points 3 times. So its home-revenge for Arizona, Warner is throwing 60% and Dilfer is throwing 50%. AZ has only played 4 home games and in those games they were 3-1 SU and ATS. And they've beaten Pittsburgh. (Lose 37-31......Arizona give 4 turnovers on the ratio and outgains the 49ers by 180 yards. Sick.)

PHILADELPHIA +24 over New England-----------Even if the Eagles offense is completely shutout, their defense would have to allow 25 points for this bet to lose. They've only allowed 25 or more points twice; to Dallas and Washington. I realize NE does not have a 'normal' offense with a QB throwing 73%. And I realize that NE is 9-1 ATS. But consider that if NE was a 24 point favorite in all of their games, they would be only 3-5-2 ATS(Win 28-31)

Saturday, November 24, 2007

Boston Charlotte OVER 186.5 (190) REST2 (Win 96-95)
Chicago New York UNDER 189 (192.5) REST7 (Win 85-78)
Miami Orlando OVER 182.5 (188) REST2 (Win 120-99)

VIRGINIA +3.5 over Virginia Tech---------Its been about 8 years since Virginia won this game so its big time revenge for them. That's probably why UVA scheduled a bye before this game; they plan to win it this year. VT has had some big wins lately but look at the TO's: +2 TO's against FSU, +5 TO's against Georgia Tech and +3 TO's against Clemson(a game where they were outgained by 160 yards). Neither defense allows many points so this could easily be a 17-14 game (Lose 33-21........Disgusting failure off the bye at home. More disgusting than Thomas Jefferson being a slave-raping sex offender)

KENTUCKY -2.5 over Tennessee------------Another big time revenge for Kentucky as they havent beaten Tenn in at least 10 years. But if they can beat Arkansas and LSU, as they have, they have a good chance this year. They also have home-off-road-loss motivation after losing to Georgia. Kentucky has not stopped the run so I'm looking for some Defensive Improvement at Home. Tenn has played some weak games against South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Alabama(losing badly to them) and they are 0-3 against good teams playing on the road.(Lose 52-50)

Oregon Ucla UNDER 50.5-----------Ucla is coming off a bye at home so i expect a good defensive performance. With Dixon out, Oregon's offense should be A LOT weaker. Brady Leaf clearly didnt know the offense when he came in last game vs AZ and completed less than half of his passes. He should do a little better after a week of practicing knowing he'll start, but he still could turn out to be a sorry QB. Ucla's offense should be equally weak with no Kalil Bell and a pair of 50% QB's who are listed as "Questionable" on the injury list every week, as they are today. Remember, Ucla is a team that scored 6 points against Notre Dame and 7 points against Washington State. With such terrible passers in this game, I expect both teams to run more and Im hoping Ucla will stop the run well coming off the bye. (Win 16-0.....Correct, Oregon held to only 43 rushing yards)

Florida State Florida UNDER 64.5 teased with STANFORD +1 over Notre Dame--------Stanford is home off the bye, has home-off-road-loss motivation, has revenge motivation(they havent beaten ND in 5 years) and has BEATEN ARIZONA AND USC. They're coming off some bad losses but Notre Dame this year...........they HAVE to suck worse then Stanford. I think the o/u in the Florida game is a little too high for FSU. FSU's defense will probably be one of the best that Florida has seen; they've held some decent teams to low numbers. And offensively, FSU never scores more than 20-something. Against Florida AT Florida, I dont see FSU scoring more than 21 points(Lose by 6......are you fucking kidding me? Stanford was +2 on the TO ratio and outgained them by 14 yards. HOW THE FUCK DO THEY LOSE THIS GAME?!! I cant believe this shit. You can beat USC and you cant beat Notre Dame coming off the bye at home. A hideous disgrace for Stanford. Despicable)

Friday, November 23, 2007

MISSISSIPPI STATE +.5 over Miss teased with LSU -6 over Arkansas---------Arkansas has only played 3 road games and when they cant run, they cant win or score. They lost to Tennessee 34-13 and Tenn's rushing defense allows 160 yards per game. LSU's rushing defense is MUCH better and allows 78 yds per game. I think that means Ark has a big problem here unless their weak QB has the game of his life. what happened last time LSU faced a running team that cant pass? a 48-7 beatdown of Virginia Tech. I'll lay the points(Lose by 8.......What a fucking scam; Nutt knows he can't win this game without hyperbolic trickeration.....and LSU gets totally tricked by it. McFadden throws a TD pass?!! Sick, but somebody on LSU's defense should have stepped the fuck up. LSU, you suck.)

MISSISSIPPI STATE -6.5 over Miss----------MSU has home-off-road-loss motivation, home-revenge motivation and they've beaten Kentucky and Auburn on the road and Alabama at home. MSU is a rushing team and Miss' rushing defense is atrocious allowing over 200 a game. Ole Miss has played most of their season at home with 7 home games while MSU has only had 5 home games (Lose 17-14.......Wrong, MSU only rushes for 81 yards. Somebody on Miss stepped up)

New Orleans Utah UNDER 198 (198.5) REST6 (Win 99-71)
New Jersey Seattle UNDER 195.5 (195) REST6 (Win 98-93)

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Milwaukee Lakers OVER 203 (200) REST2 (Win 110-103)
Atlanta Miami UNDER 190 (188) REST5 (Win 82-79)

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

San Antonio Atlanta UNDER 191 (194) REST7 (Win 95-83)
Milwaukee Cleveland UNDER 194.5 (196.5) REST7 (Lose 111-107)
Chicago Denver UNDER 204 (196.5) REST5(Win 112-91)

Sunday, November 18, 2007

HOUSTON -1 over New Orleans-----------Home off bye for Houston and Andre Johnson should be back in. When New Orleans started to win, they beat Atl, Seattle, 49ers(not too impressed by those teams). Then Jacksonville(that was somewhat impressive) but then they actually lose to Stl as 10.5 point favorites?! Stl was off the bye there, but 1)Stl sucks and 2)Saints were at home. Hmmmm. Houston is now HOME off the bye and they're probably a better team than Stl. Saints should have a problem here (Win 23-10)

JACKSONVILLE -2.5 over San Diego-------------Garrard is(or should be) back and if you look at SD's last two games........they got 6 interceptions off Manning and were outgained by 200 yards. They will NOT get 6 pics off Garrard; that is certain. And the Vikings outgained SD by 299 yards while ripping then 35-17..........Jax screwed me last time i tried them, but I'll try them again here (Win 24-17)

Green Bay Carolina OVER 37.5------------As long as its not really windy or raining(its not supposed to be that cold), I think this is good. Favre is putting up a lot of passing attempts and what I definitely learned last week is that GB's rush defense is good. I hope Carolina sees that too and starts passing early. Its time for them to score some points and the only way they do that vs the Packers is through the air.(Win 31-17)

Saturday, November 17, 2007

Utah Indiana OVER 203.5 (205) REST2 (Win 117-97)
Bulls Clippers OVER 190 (194) REST3 (Lose 92-73)
New Orleans Minnesota OVER 190 (194.5) REST2 (Lose 100-82)
Mississippi State Arkansas UNDER 51------------Two teams with almost zero passing skill at QB....thus, they try to run as much as possible (Lose 45-31.......FIFTY-ONE passing attempts for Miss State! That is an abominably high aberration. In all the games that MSU has lost..... to South Carolina, West Virginia, Tennessee and LSU, they have AVERAGED ONLY 32 passing attempts. And for them to lose here and come out with 51.....its just sick. Mississippi State's defense broke down miserably in only the 2nd quarter, putting them behind 24-7. That defense is to blame)

MISSISSIPPI +19 over Lsu--------------Miss off the bye at home. Lsu can run and Miss' rush defense is not good. However, with 2 weeks to prepare, I'd expect some Defensive-Improvement-at-Home. Also home-revenge for Miss cuz Lsu beat them last year(only by 3 though). Lsu has played only 4 road games.....almost lost to Alabama and did lose to Kentucky. Altho Miss got blown out by Arkansas(they gave 3 TO's), they played Florida and Alabama close(and actually outgained Bama by 40 yards). I think 19 is probably more than a few too many. (Win 41-24)

MICHIGAN +4 over Ohio State------------Osu finally exposed as overrated last week by Illini. I thought they WOULD be weaker this year because they lost Ginn and their QB. But then they went off and destroyed all the weak-ass Big Ten teams. Has OSU beaten anyone good this year? No, but Michigan somehow did beat Illinois AT Illinois. I think there's a 95% chance that Hart and Henne will play(why would you 'save' them now? this is IT, this is for the Rose Bowl). This is home-revenge for Michigan and home-off-road loss motivation for them. I can see this game coming down to a field goal, so 4 points looks good. (Lose 14-3......Mario Manningham is the one responsible for this. He dropped 3 easy catches and at least 1 other more difficult catch. But i should have been more aware of Michigan's weakness; they NEED big pass plays to Manningham to be competitive because their offense is so straightforward and transparent---maybe that's Carr's fault but Carr was always a defensive coordinator before he was head coach. I still think Illinois is better than both of these teams and this does NOT prove that Ohio State is that good. I will look to go against them again)

BOSTON COLLEGE +8.5 over Clemson-------------If you look at the Clemson-VT game, you can see that Clemson does not do well when they cant run the ball. BC's rush defense has allowed only 66 rushing yards per game(that's great). And if you look at the BC-Georgia Tech game, you see that BC won by, like, 14, gave 1 TO on the ratio and OUTGAINED GT BY 250 YARDS. Clemson, of course, lost at GT with an even TO ratio. With a good QB, BC should be able to pass themselves back into the game if they get behind......and get the cover (Win 20-17)

NAVY -16.5 over Northern Illinois-----------Northern Illinois does not stop the run and Navy runs. Northern Illinois lost to lowly Toledo by 49 points(getting outgained by 450 yards) so they can definitely get blown out. Navy scores well but their defense sucks. This is a risk here but Nicholson, No. Illinois' QB, is "doubtful" with a concussion. But even WITH Nicholson, No. Illinois has to be considered a weak offense. Navy's defense could step up here.(Lose 35-24.......Nope, Navy's defense still disgustingly weak. Fuck these military teams; they all suck)

Friday, November 16, 2007

Houston San Antonio OVER 177.5 (187.5) REST3(Lose 90-84)

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Chicago Phoenix UNDER 205 (193.5) REST7(Lose 112-102.....Phoenix scores 37 in the 4th, Bulls defense: overrated)

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Utah Toronto UNDER 204 (203.5) REST6 (Win 92-88)
Sacramento Minnesota UNDER 194 (196.5) REST6 (Lose 108-103......71 point 4th quarter, despicable)
New Jersey Boston OVER 182 (190) REST3 (Lose 91-69)
Orlando Cleveland OVER 191.5 (198) REST3 (Win 117-116 OT)

*MIAMI -7 over Akron-----------Miami has had 4 more days to prepare for the game(almost coming off a bye), its home-revenge for them as Akron beat them last year, they've only played 4 home games this year(and they are 3-1 SU in those games). But let's look at their schedule: They are a MAC team but they've played Vanderbilt, Colorado, Minnesota, Cincinatti and Syracuse. That's 5 teams of above-MAC caliber status. Akron has played 3 such teams. Oh, and Miami actually BEAT SYRACUSE. And they beat Ball State who is pretty good this year. But lets look at Bowling Green; Miami beat them by 33 points AND OUTGAINED THEM BY 250 YARDS! How about Buffalo; Miami beat them, outgained them by 150 yards and even gave them a TO on the ratio. How did Akron do against Buffalo and Bowling Green? They lost to both of them by an average of 20 points in each loss(Push 7-0.....Miami only threw 3 pics but they were all, like, in Akron's end zone, or at least the red zone. This pathetic game was just like the Dolphins'; the home team's defense dominates but bettors dont get paid. Sick)

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Lakers San Ant UNDER 198 (198.5) REST6 (Lose 107-92)
Seattle Orlando UNDER 210.5 (204) REST5 (Win 103-76)
Philadelphia Dallas UNDER 191 (190.5) REST5(Win 99-84)

Sunday, November 11, 2007

MIAMI +3 (-120) over Buffalo-------------Dolphins home off the bye looking for 1st win. They have sucked, but they've only played 3 games at home in their own stadium and 2 of those games were against New England and Dallas. Statistically, these teams are about equal but with Buffalo having played 5 home games and 3 road games. Miami hasnt proved they can win, but they have scored about 20 pts per game(against 16 pts per game for Buffalo). Buffalo has not beaten a good team and they lost to the hapless Broncos. After the bye, you have to expect Miami to have some defensive improvement coming home. And they will go all out to win this game because if they dont, a winless season is very possible(Push 13-10......Sad. Just fucking sad. They outplay them the whole game, Miami's defense does great, and then Buffalo finally scores a TD late. Ok, no problem, game is tied. They kick it off to Miami, and Ted Ginn returns in all the way for a Dolphin TD. PROBLEM: some idiot gets called for a flag. RESULT: Miami doesnt get the TD, doesnt score again and doesnt win.)

VIKINGS +5.5 over Green Bay----------Revenge game for Minny as Packers beat them earlier in the year. Packers coming off 2 road wins......might they be tired here? GB beat Minny by 7 but the game was statistically very even. The Vikings beatdown of the Chargers last week was not even; Vikings outgained them by 300 yards with an even TO ratio. Vikings are coming on here and are hungry for wins(at 3-5); Packers have wins to spare(at 7-1). I think this game could easily be decided by a field goal (Lose 34-0........Stupid bet. I knew the Packers run defense was good, and running is the Vikings specialty. Good specialty vs Good specialty. Should have seen that and not played it.)

ATLANTA +3.5 over Carolina---------------Revenge game for Atl as they were -2 on the TO ratio against Car, outgained them by 130 yards, yet still lost by 7. The risk here, is that Car has home-off-road-loss motivation and has only played 3 home games. But with Carr out, and Testaverde on the injury list, their QB position is 'questionable'. I'll take the points for a small play(Win 20-13)

Saturday, November 10, 2007

TENNESSEE pk over Arkansas-------------Despite Tennessee's pathetic 2nd half vs South Carolina, I'll go with them again here on a day where I just don't see too many opportunities. This is a revenge game for Tenn and I still think Ark is weak. Arkansas HAS ONLY PLAYED 2 ROAD GAMES SO FAR! And Tenn has not failed yet at home this year. Tenn has played 6 good teams so far: Cal, Fla, Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia and Miss State. Arkansas has only played 4 good teams. Arkansas' passing game is pathetic and they are ALL Mcfadden on offense. Tenn's offense is balanced (Win 34-13)

Tennesse Arkansas UNDER 64.5-------------Arkansas is 6-2 OVER the total this year and that is surprising for a total running team. I think that OVER streak corrects today on this high number as Tenn comes up with an improved run defense at home(Win 34-13)

Wednesday, November 07, 2007

BCLI 2006-2007 football discovery stats
Reasons for betting games and how they performed
Strength of Schedule(looking at the quality of the teams that a specific team has played)
22-12 (64.7%)

Good Specialty vs Good Specialty(Seeing that, for example, one team tends to do well on offense mainly by rushing, and they happen to be playing a team with an extraordinarily good rushing defense, and betting on the team with the good rushing defense)
11-6 (64.7%)

Home(playing a team because they are at home)
33-24 (57.89%)
Home after Loss
14-11 (56%)
Home after Bye week
5-1 (83%)

Few Home/Road games(Betting against a road team because it has not yet played many road games. Betting on a home team because it has not yet had the advantage of playing many home games)
5-3 (62.5%)

Good Rushing Defense(Betting OVER the total because you think teams will pass due to the strength of the other teams' rushing defenses)
12-4 (75%)
High Passing Attempts by QB(Betting OVER the total because the QB passes a lot)
Bad Passing Defense(Betting OVER the total because a team's passing defense is bad)
Bad Rushing Offense(Betting OVER the total because a teams rushing offense is so bad you think they will pass alot)
Must Pass After getting behind(Betting OVER the total because you think one team will fall behind quickly and by a lot and then have to pass)
High Passing Attempts Against(Betting OVER the total because a team has been being passed against alot)
0-2 (0%)

Away(BCLI generally avoids betting on road teams, but was successful on away bets due to having plenty of other evidence that the away team was the proper bet)
18-8 (69.2%)
Away after Bye Week
2-2 (50%)

UNDER the total betting: Good Passing Defense 3-0(100%); Bad Weather 2-0 (100%); Bad Rushing Defense 5-3 (62.5%); Good Defense in general 2-4 (33%); Low Passing Attempts by QB 2-1 (67%); Defensive Improvement at Home 2-1 (67%)

Injuries(Betting against a team because it has injuries)
9-10 (47.3%)
Injury to QB
5-4 (55.5%)

Revenge Motivation

Good/Bad ATS(Betting on or against a team due to how good they are against the spread)

Good/Bad Offense/Defense(using the quality of a team's offense or defense as a reason to bet on or against it)

Almost beat a Huge team last game(betting on a team that did extraordinarily well last game against a very good team but still didnt win)

Good/Bad on Road or at Home(Betting on road teams because they have done well on the road, et cetera)

Sunday, November 04, 2007

DALLAS -3(-125) over Philly------------Eagles have scored over 20 points in a single game only 2 times this year while Dallas has scored a minimum of 24 points in every game. If you add to that the fact that Dallas is COMING OFF A BYE WEEK, 3 Eagles receivers are "Questionable" on the injury report, this is a revenge game for Dallas because the Eagles beat them last year.......and Romo is doing better than McNabb, 3 points looks cheap (Win 38-17)

ATLANTA -2.5(-150) over San Francisco------------Atl coming off a bye at home AND home-off-road loss motivation. That's strong as hell right there, but when you look at the 49ers......jeez, they are sucking. Alex Smith may come back here but he was only throwing 51%. Harrington is 63%. Gore has been doing bad and is listed as "Questionable" (Win 20-16)

KC -2 over Green Bay-------------Home off a bye for KC. About the only thing you can say about KC is they beat Palmer(so maybe they can beat Favre) and they beat San Diego AT SAN DIEGO. I'll got with them, but I'm a little hesitant (Lose 33-22......yeah, I knew i should have laid off this one. TO ratio was even: Chiefs suck)

ARIZONA +3.5 over Tampa-----------Arizona coming off the bye and they usually keep games close. In fact, AZ is 6-1 in either winning or not losing by more than 3. In their loss to Washington last game, they gave 2 turnovers but outgained them by 200 yards. They should have enough motivation here.........and if they can beat Pittsburgh(as they did), they should be able to cover this against Tampa(Lose 17-10)

Saturday, November 03, 2007

*ARIZONA +1 over Ucla----------Revenge game for AZ. Kahlil Bell just went out for the season last game?! If he's out, in my opinion, UCLA doesnt have an offense now. Their QB's are in the 50-55% range while Tuitama has thrown for 2800 yards already for AZ and is at 64%. AZ has a HUGE passing advantage here. Az has played 5 road games against decent-to-good teams and I think they could be be better than they appear because of this. Washington State destroyed Ucla last game, outgaining them by an incredible 280 yards. Washington State is a team that Arizona has beaten by 28 points AT ARIZONA, which is where this game will be (Win 34-27.......a rare occurrence where the winning team was -2 on the TO ratio)

OKLAHOMA STATE +3 (-130) over Texas----------To my eyes, Texas doesnt have any impressive covers so far. They are only 1-2 ATS in their 3 road games so far. Ok State is coming off the bye, at home and its a revenge game for them. That's a pretty strong situation (Push 38-35.......OSU has a 21 point lead in the 4th quarter, how do you not close that? Pathetic)

SAN DIEGO STATE +4 over Wyoming----------SD State is coming off the bye, at home, a revenge game for them AND they're coming off a loss. After beating Virginia, Wyoming has covered only 1 spread and done nothing impressive. SD State has had to play 2 Pac-10 teams and Utah on the road, plus Cincinatti at home. After losing to New Mexico by 3, I think they'll be ready to win this game (Win 27-24)

TCU -3 (-130) over New Mexico-------------Tcu is off a bye and off a loss. They were -3 on the TO ratio in losing to Utah and outgained Utah by 60 yards, -2 on the TO ratio losing to Air Force and outgained them by 70 yards, -1 on the TO ratio BEATING Stanford and outgained them by 130 yards. New Mexico is coming off a lucky win where they were +3 on the TO to Air Force. (Win 37-0)

UL LAFAYETTE +27.5 over Tennessee-----------Lafayette is coming off a bye and lost to South Carolina by only 14. This is a lot of points and Tenn didnt even beat Arkansas State by this many (Lose 59-7)

MICHIGAN STATE +4 over Michigan---------Home revenge and Home-off-road-loss motivation for MSU. They lost to Iowa but OUTGAINED THEM BY 180 YARDS. Michigan has played only 2 road games so far and Henne and Hart are both "Questionable". I dont think Henne is that great this year and with the kind of 1st halves Michigan has had......they're looking vulnerable. MSU is an impressive 3-1 ATS in road games and they've played Ohio State and Wiscosin close ON THE ROAD. I think they can make this one close at home. (Push 28-24)

OREGON -1.5 over Asu teased with CENTRAL FLORIDA -8.5 over Marshall------------This will be only the 3rd road game that Asu has played and now it looks like their 65% QB has an injured hand. CF is a good running team and Marshall just does not stop the run. New Hampshire scored 48 on Marshall........hmmmm (Win by 10.5 and by 25.5)

SOUTH CAROLINA +11.5 over Ark teased with TULANE +12.5 over Tulsa teased with Tulane/Tulsa UNDER 74.5(+180)--------------Revenge for SC and they really should have beat Tennessee last game as they were -3 on the turnover ratio and outgained them by 180 yards. They should come with something here. Arkansas, I think, is weaker than they appear; they've boosted their stats blowing out 3 really bad teams and I think they're pass defense is weak. They've also played virtually their entire season at home so far. Tulane is a running team and Tulsa's run defense sucks. This is a revenge game for Tulane and they are coming off a 1 point loss so I think they'll be motivated. If they can hold LSU to 34 points, they can stop Tulsa's weak-ass shit. We KNOW Tulane's running, and I dont think their offense is the type that plays in 70+ point games(The only time they went over 70 was an OT game vs SMU). Tulsa has played only 3 road games (Lose by .5 and 11.5.......disgusting effort by Tulane, that team is shit)

CINCINATTI +11 over South Florida teased with Oregon -1.5------------Cincy coming off the bye while Cincy and SF are coming off 2 losses. Looks like an even game to me. Losing to Pittsburgh(as Cincy did) is unconscionable but SF's win over WV was fraudulent as they got 2 TO's and were outgained by 160 yards. Both rushing defenses are good, so it should be decided in the air, and Cincy's QB is a better passer(Win by 16 and 10.5)

Friday, November 02, 2007

BOWLING GREEN -6.5 over Akron------------Home revenge for BG....they're coming off a loss where they were -3 on the TO ratio. BG has beaten Minnesota while Akron has lost to Temple with an even TO ratio and was outgained by 80. BG, I think, has too much offense for Akron(Win 44-20)