Sunday, October 28, 2007

SAN DIEGO -9 over Houston------------Chargers off a bye and gradually redeeming their season. Johnson still out for Houston and now Schaub is "Questionable". Houston was -2 on the TO ratio while losing by 10 at Atlanta and then they were EVEN ON THE TURNOVER RATIO WHILE LOSING BY 20 AT JACKSONVILLE. Jax is weak this year, Atlanta is worse and Miami, a team Houston beat only by 3, is probably the worst team of all. If SD can go into Denver and win 41-3, they can definitely cover 9 points at home coming off a bye.(Win 35-10)

Friday, October 26, 2007

ARIZONA STATE -2.5 (-125) over Cal------------- 1)ASU is coming off a bye 2) at home 3) revenge for them. The only reason not to bet ASU is that they have not played a very strong schedule so far. But with the teams they've had, they've done very well statistically (Win 31-20)

OREGON -2.5 over Usc---------------Home revenge for Oregon.....Usc still hasnt done anything impressive: beating Notre Dame? so what? beating Nebraska? Nebraska is a joke this year. beating Washington by 3? Washington is the worst fucking team in history. Oregon is just too good. In their loss to Cal, they were -4 on the TO ratio AND they outgained Cal by 97 yards. Oh yeah, Usc lost to Stanford (Win 24-17)

TENNESSEE -2.5 over South Carolina--------------Altho SC is kind of a hard team to read, meaning its hard to come close to predicting how well(or how badly) they will perfom from week to week, Tenn is in a good spot here. Tenn has home-off-road-loss motivation, they've played Alabama, Florida, Georgia and Cal, and they've covered all of their lines at home this year. They rushed through Georgia, and with SC's rushing defense allowing 177 yards a game, I dont see why they wouldnt be able to run just as well vs them (Win luck, SC outgained them by 200 yards)

ILLINOIS -13.5 over Ball State--------------Ball State's close game against Nebraska looks less impressive every week as Nebraska sucks it up against everybody. Ball State was even on the TO ratio against Central Michigan and they still lost by 20. Illinois HAS to be better than Central Michigan and coming off 2 losses(ones that shouldnt have happened) they should have good motivation to kill Ball State. Ball State cant stop the run and Illinois specializes in running. (Lose 28-17.....Illinois rushes for over 300 yards and they cant cover this? Thanx for the -2 TO's. Idiots)

INDIANA +15 over Wisconsin teased with TEXAS TECH -7.5 over Colorado------------Indiana almost beat a big team(PSU) last week, and would have, if they hadnt been -2 on the TO ratio. Wisconsin: overrated and they got killed by Penn State, the team Indiana almost beat. Colorado just sucks; they were the beneficiary of a +1 on the TO ratio and a +90 on the penalty yards ratio against Arizona State and they still lost big(and got outgained by 203 yards). For Texas Tech, its home revenge, home-off-road-loss motivation and a massive advantage at QB(Lose by 15 and 12.5.....Harrell throws for 400+ yards, Tech outgains them by 120 yards, but Harrell also throws 4 interceptions, and that's the difference; Turnovers decide everything. Indiana...pathetic effort)
FRESNO STATE +2.5 over Boise State--------------Revenge game for Fresno as Boise beat them last year. Boise is only 2-4 ATS this year and they've played all but 2 of their games at home. Fresno, on the other hand, has only played 3 home games and they've played Oregon and Texas AM. Boise's strongest opponent this year was probably Washington. Washington beat them 24-10 and I can tell you, honestly, after losing 2 big bets this year backing Washington: WASHINGTON FUCKING SUCKS!(Lose 34-21)

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Air Force vs New Mexico UNDER 47----------In the 3 games that NM has gone over the total, the opposing team made between 40 and 63 passing attempts. Air Force doesnt throw NEARLY that much. Even in their game against BYU where they lost 31-6, they only threw 21 times. NM's rush defense is statistically solid at only 94 rush yards allowed per game. I think AF will run(because they always do) and perhaps have some trouble scoring that way. NM may also run because AF's rush defense looks weak(Lose 34-31......New Mexico, in a phenomenal display of stupidity and incompetence, allows not 1, but TWO FUCKING TURNOVERS in their own territory that Air Force quickly runs in for easy TD's----and that's in the 1st half. Then NM kicks off and Air Force fumbles the fucking kickoff at its own fucking 20 yard line and NM gets a quick, easy TD off of that. Again, still the 1st half. I dont what kind of shit these idiotic teams pulled in the 2nd half because I stopped watching. So with only 46 total passing attempts in this game, 65 points were scored. That means somebody fucked up. And NM's rushing defense? It sucks. They do not play real football in this pathetic Mountain West Conference. The games are fucking jokes. Can't believe I got suckered into betting on one of them)

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

ROCKIES(Francis) +1.5 (-110) over Boston(Beckett)---------I dont really want to bet against either of these offenses or either of these pitchers, but I think Boston is favored by too much. Im thinking Boston -162 (and its -220). Boston got 16 hits and 5 runs in 12 innings vs Westbrook. That's not that great against him. If Drew is gonna start hitting and continue to hit......maybe the Rockies are in trouble(we'll see what he does against Francis if he starts). And yes, Boston rocked the lhp Sabathia and the lhp Perez in Cleveland's bullpen.....and Francis is, of course, an lhp. However, Francis has looked very impressive in the postseason and at this price, he's playable. And the other thing, the reason Im betting this, is that Beckett faced Colorado in the regular season (5inn, 10h, 6runs and only 1k) and got hit. Francis in that game? He shutout the Red Sox over 5 innings, giving up 7 hits(Lose 13-1.......yeah, i knew i shouldnt have bet this. Not only did Francis get destroyed, MORALES got murdered. And I thought he was gonna be starting one of these games......probably not after that. As much as I disrespect Schilling, Im not touching the Rockies again until they show up with something)

Sunday, October 21, 2007

*BUFFALO +3 over Baltimore-------------Buff home off a bye; almost beat a good team last game(Dallas)......good spot for them psychologically. Balt's schedule is looking really weak( Stl, Jets, SF, Az, Cincy) while Buff has played(and got killed by) NE and Pitt. (Win 19-14)

SAN FRAN +9 over Giants-------------SF off the bye and most certainly worked on their offense. SOME improvement is probable, but even if its not much, 9 points is a lot considering that SF's defense is ok, certainly as good as the Giants'. Giants coming off the short week after Monday night game (Lose 33-15.......-3 TO for the sorry 49ers)

DETROIT -2.5 over Tampa-------------Det has home-off-road-loss motivation AND is off the bye at home. That alone is good enough to consider this play. Kitna is at 67% and Tampa's offensive capabilities are questionable (Win 23-16)

DALLAS -3 over Minn teased with CINCINATTI +.5(-120)-----------Dallas should come back strong after losing to NE.....the only thing the Vikings can do is run and Dallas' run defense is looking pretty good(they DID stop NE's running game). Minn was +4 on the TO ratio against the Bears and just barely won; I think they're weak. Cincy has home-off-road-loss motivation and i think its time for them get it together. The Jets look weak to me; they're just barely strong enough to win at home vs bad teams and they may not be strong enough to win on the road vs anyone. This will be Cincinatti's 3rd home game. Ill give them another try(Win by 7 and 7.5)

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Wake Forest vs Navy UNDER 62--------------Both teams' scoring averages are skewered up because they both played Duke, a team that passes a lot and has no defense. Navy is a running team and should struggle offensively because Wake's rush defense is pretty good. Both teams' defenses should be stronger than usual because they've had about 9 days to prepare for this game. Navy's rush defense sucks and if Wake chose to run as much as they did against FSU, they should REALLY choose to run against Navy (Lose 44-24.....68 points scored with only 40 total passing attempts---an anomaly you're not likely to see again very often. But this game was shit anyways. 1) an 80 yard kickoff return by WF(Navy defense sucks) 2) Navy fumbles at their 10 yard line and WF runs it in for a quick TD 3)then another fumble by Navy converted to points by WF. Fuck Navy. Fuck the US armed forces. They're fucking pathetic)

CENTRAL FLORIDA -2.5 over Tulsa-----------Tulsa is 2-4 ATS; they have a bad defense that has been bad against BAD TEAMS. Their rush defense is very bad and CF is a rushing team. CF has home-off-road-loss motivation(or should have it) and their last losses were flukish with a -5 TO ratio vs East Carolina and a -3 vs South Florida (Win 44-23)

OKLAHOMA STATE -2.5 over Kansas State--------------Home revenge for Ok State. This will be only the 3rd road game this year for K-State and only the 3rd home game for Ok State(if you dont count their game against non-board team Sam Houston. K-State cant keep dominating the TO ratio forever....they were +4 against Colorado last game and +4 against Texas. Hopefully, their luck will change here. (Lose 41-39......Correct! K-State goes -2 on the TO ratio here, loses, but not by enough. Fucking half-point loss. I dont think I've ever lost by a half-point like this at 2.5. Goddamn Hell)

MARYLAND -4 over Virginia---------------Maryland off a bye, at home, and they've beaten Rutgers at Rutgers. Virginia's road record this year looks very weak: L 3-23 @Wyoming, W 22-20 @NC, W 23-21 @Middle Tenn (Lose 18-17......By FAR the sickest and most illegitimate loss. Maryland is up by 5 late in the 4th quarter. Bullshit pass interference costs them 15 yards(defensive guy made a great play to hit the ball down....completely sick call). Then a 4th down play where the Virginia runner is clearly out of bounds before reaching the ball forward to the marker. They review the terrible spot and STILL dont get it right. 2 terrible calls going against the home team. Then on the TD, THE GUY FUCKING FUMBLES IT RIGHT ON THE LINE and they call it a TD. A completely and utterly illegitimate loss. I protest it strenously and demand justice)

ILLINOIS +1 over Michigan---------------Michigan is ok, but not real strong. Against EMU(a game that was very close around halftime) Mich was +2 on the TO ratio and didnt come close to covering. Against Northwestern, Michigan seemed to be in danger of losing, didnt cover and was +5 on the TO ratio. Illinois has a powerful team this year, has home-off-road-loss motivation(I dont know how they lost to a weak-ass team like Iowa) and they havent beaten Michigan since, like, 1999. Illinois' motivation HAS to be huge here and I'd play this whether Mike Hart plays or not(Illini rush defense doing good) (Lose 27-17....utterly sick choke by Illinois in the 4th quarter. Guy totally drops an easy punt at Illinois' 15 yard line to turn in over, essentially GIVING the game to Michigan. I dont deserve this shit)

UCLA +2 over California--------------UCLA home off a bye; also home revenge for them. UCLA's rush defense is good and maybe the best Cal has seen. Their loss to Notre Dame was a -7 on the TO ratio(outrageous) and ND ONLY GOT 140 OFFENSIVE YARDS against UCLA's 277. UCLA's defense is definitely good enough to win this especially after bye-rest. Cal has been extremely + on the TO ratio....+4 vs Oregon, +3 vs Colorado State, +2 vs Arizona. That luck cant continue forever(oh, it stopped last game when they were -2 to Oregon State and lost).(Win 30-21)

TROY -20.5 (-130) over North Texas---------------Troy off a bye at home and they've beaten Ok State. North Texas lost by 59 to Arkansas and 69 to Oklahoma while Troy has scored at least 26 points against Ok state, Florida and Arkansas (Win 45-7)

Wake Forest vs Navy UNDER 68 teased with COLORADO +10 over Kansas teased with MARYLAND +2-------------------Revenge for Col and home-off-road-loss motivation for them. This is only the 2nd road game for Kansas, a team whose schedule has been very weak so far. (Win by 5, 1 and push on the total for a -110 win)

FLORIDA STATE +.5 over Miami teased with LSU -4 over Auburn-------------Home-off-road-loss motivation for FSU and they've had 2 more days to rest and prepare. 3rd road game for Miami(in their first two they got beat by 38 by OK and lost to the pathetic North Carolina). FSU HAS BEATEN ALABAMA AT HOME BY 7 WITH AN EVEN TURNOVER RATIO. Home revenge and homeoffroadloss motivation for LSU. Auburn's offense is suspect. They beat Arkansas 9-7......No, I dont consider Arkansas a very good team. LSU'll be driven.(Lose by 7.5....Miami lost on total yards, lost on 1st downs......Florida State gives it away late)

Friday, October 19, 2007

CONN +3 over Louisville-----------Louisville's last win at Cincinatti was an obvious fraud with the +4 on the turnover ratio. Conn has perfect motivation here: home revenge and home-off-road-loss motivation. I just can't ignore that combined with the fact that Louisville's defense is the worst defense in CFB history. Last year, Conn had a 46% passer, this year they have a 61% passer. Last year, Louisville beat Syracuse AT Syracuse 28-13, this year they LOST to Syracuse AT HOME! Last year, Louisville was 8-4 ATS, this year they are 2-4 ATS(Win 21-17)

Monday, October 15, 2007

BOSTON(Matsuzaka) -120 over Cleve(Westbrook)--------Cleveland has rocked Matsuzaka once and 4-hit by him the other time. Westbrook faced Boston once and game up 10 hits, 5 runs in 6 innings. Cleveland rocked Schillling but I dont think they can hit a good 4 seam fastball from a younger pitcher. Westbrook is more hittable than Dice-K(Lose 4-2......3 fucking GIDP's for Red Sox. AND Indians get 6 hits in 4innings vs Matsuzaka. Wakefield has had a good season, but if the Indians are gonna hit good pitchers........and if Boston grounds into double plays vs Westbrook, they can certainly do the same thing against Byrd. No, no bet for me on this next game)

Sunday, October 14, 2007

NEVADA +25 over Boise State-----------Nev off a 41-49 loss at home......their motivation should be good enough to cover. Washington beat Boise State 24-10 and I can ASSURE you from personal betting experience, that Washington fucking sucks. Revenge game for Nevada. Based of strength of schedule, I dont know if one can be sure that Boise is good enough for this big number. Nevada only has a 50% passer but they've played Nebraska and Northwestern(decent teams)(Win 69-67)
EAGLES -3.5 over Jets-------Philly off a bye and Westrook is back. If Eagles have a good game(like vs Detroit) they can definitely do this. I'll try it for a small play(Win 16-9)

Saturday, October 13, 2007

WASHINGTON +11.5 over Arizona State-------Washington off a bye.....almost beat a huge team last game(USC)....revenge for Wash.......Wash has played some real teams(Ohio state, Usc, UCLA) while AZ state has played....SD state, Wsh state, Oregon State and San Jose st (Lose 44-20....I'm sick of Washington quitting the 2nd half. I will not bet on these quitters again)

COLORADO +5 over Kansas State-----------Col's win against Oklahoma was fairly legitimate considering Col was only +1 on the turnover ratio and outgained OK by 150 yards. K-state's LOSS AT HOME to Kansas was also legitimate considering the TO ratio was even. K-state's win at Texas(everyone knew they were weak enough to be upset at some point) was highly illegitimate since K-state got a +4 on the TO ratio and was outgained by Texas. Revenge for Col (Lose 47-20....and THIS win was illegitimate as Col had 4 turnovers and K-State had none)

CINCINATTI -10 over Louisville----------Louisville was +1 on the TO ratio AT HOME and they lost to Utah by 9. Louisville has the worst defense in football. Home revenge for Cincinatti.(Lose 28-24......Cincy outgained them but was MINUS 4 ON THE TURNOVER RATIO)

MIAMI -2.5 over Georgia Tech---------Home revenge for Miami.....home-off-road-loss motivation for Miami. They were -3 on the TO ratio in their loss to North Carolina. Wright is passing better(64%) this year and if Miami rush defense is good(as it usually is) GT is gonna have to pass......and they have only a 53% passer (Lose 17-14.....GT actually gave 1 turnover here and still won.....MIAMI FUCKING SUCKS)

DUKE +14.5 over Virginia Tech---------Duke is passing, scoring and covering.....home revenge(obviously) for them here. VT's win last week at Clemson was totally illegitimate and shouldnt have happened(+3 TO, outgained by 160 yards). Duke was -2 on the TO ratio in their worst loss to Conn, who is pretty good this year. VT has played only 2 road games so far while Duke has played 4 road games. Besides LSU, VT has played weak teams, 1 non-board team and Clemson(I think they suck now that I lost betting on them) while Duke has played all decent-to-good teams.........and offensively, Duke is statistically just as good if not better than VT. (Lose 43-14.....Fuck, Virgina Tech kills me again)

Marshall vs Tulsa UNDER 71-----------These rush defenses are weak....somebody is gonna get wise and try to keep the ball on the ground. Marshall off a half-bye week so their defense should be better. Does Marshall have enough offense to play in a 70-points-plus game? I dont know, but somebody is gonna have to do some running here to exploit these weak rush defenses (Win 31-38)

KENTUCKY +10 over Lsu----------Home off road loss motivation for Kentucky AND home revenge. Lsu was +2 TO's in their win vs South Carolina and +1 TO's in their almost-a-loss win against Florida. With a good passer, I like Kentucky's chances to get this game close again if LSU gets a 2-score lead on them (Win 43-37)

ARIZONA +21.5 (-130) over Usc-------------Usc simply not impressing at 2-3 ATS. Their win against Nebraska(they suck)? Not impressive. Their (-4TO) loss AT HOME to Stanford as a 41 point favorite? Pathetic. And now their QB is out......I'll take points. Revenge for Arizona (Win 20-13)

MISSISSIPPI +7.5 (-160) over Alabama--------Miss has a much better(59%) passer this year. Home revenge for them. In Miss' bad loss to Georgia they gave 2 TO's on the ratio and were penalized 50 more yards than Georgia was. With Bama going for their 5th consecutive non-cover and Wilson only passing 54%, I'll take a home team with good points. (Win 27-24)

CINCINATTI -4 teased with KENTUCKY +16 teased with WASHINGTON +17.5 (+180)(Lose by 9.5 and 8)

Friday, October 12, 2007

*COLORADO(Jimenez) -115 (BCLI line -140) over Arizona(Davis) (Win 3-2)
*COL -120(1st 5 INNINGS ONLY) over Arizona-----------------------Davis has allowed 23 hits to the Rockies in 17 innings: they can hit him. But can AZ hit Jimenez? Jimenez pitched a 6inning 3-hitter to close out the Phillies last start and by starting him here, the Rockies are saying that they get it: He may only be 23, but he's good. But how good vs Arizona this year? How about 4 hits in 13 total innings against them? He must have gotten lucky and walked a lot of people......well, 5 walks. Arizona is a right hand hitting team and rhb's have hit only .212 off Jimenez this year. Is Arizona even qualified to be in the post-season with their .250 team batting avergae? I would Webb worried me a bit, but after him, I think Colorado should crush this team. Rockies hit .277 vs lhp's, this line is good, this pitching matchup is good......I think this has to be a strong play.(Win 2-1)

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Wake Forest vs Florida State OVER 44---------When Skinner has played QB for WF this season, the minimum number of points scored in the game has been 55 and he has not failed to have fewer than 30 passing attempts. Both rushing defenses have been good and FSU's has been real good(statistically). So I think it is a lock that Skinner goes to the air....a lot(He's passing 70% so why try to run on FSU?). Look at the Boston College game: 112 total passing attempts in that game between Skinner, Ryan and WF's other QB(and 66 points scored). Colorado and Alabama both had 53 passing attempts against FSU....I dont know why the ALA game didnt go over, but in the Colorado game, Col turned it over 4 times against no TO's for FSU. True, FSU has only had one game( UAB) in which more than 44 points have been scored....But has FSU faced a 70% passer? If Duke can score 36 off Wake Forest as they did last game, why couldnt FSU score 30? (Win 24-21......Wake should have passed a lot more)

ROCKIES(Francis) +118 over Arizona(Webb)--------I bet this matchup a couple weeks ago when it was in Col. Webb allowed 8 hits but only 2 runs and Arizona won. I'm gonna go here again for a small play. And its basically because of Francis. He came up HUGE against the Phillies, a team that HAD hit him twice before. I saw the game, I was betting against him and he just kicked ass. 8 k's against an offense vastly superior to the Diamondbacks. You gotta assume, after that, that this kid is UP for post-season play. Webb is good, but Col has scored about 25 runs off him in 39 innings. (Win 5-1)

Monday, October 08, 2007

Cleveland(Byrd) vs Nyy(Wang) OVER 10(-115)----------Byrd didnt make it past the 3rd inning in his only try vs the Yankees this year(7 ER'S) and Wang, of course, got rocked by the Indians a couple games ago. I think an o/u of 10 is a very reasonable number to go over with these offenses(and Nyy's bullpen) no matter who is pitching.( have GOT to be kidding me?!! 25 hits and 8 walks in this game and it doesnt go over?! Just to see how anomalous this game was, I went back and looked for the last baseball game where there were as many as 25 hits and only 10 runs. I had to go back to September 19th(that's roughly 170 games ago). Zito against Davis.....two horrible offenses with slugging percentages vastly inferior to those of the Yankees and Indians. There were actually 2 fewer walks in that SF-AZ game, but 3 fewer DP's. How the fuck do the Yankees lose this game? They're at home against a hittable pitcher...they got 12 hits. Bottom line: Yankees are psychological girly-men; they CANT handle the pressure and they CANT hit in the clutch)

Friday, October 05, 2007

*CLEMSON -5.5 over Virginia Tech----------Very weak wins for VT over bad teams(North Carolina and East Carolina)and, of course, no covers in any games yet. VT's Qb's have thrown more pics than TD's. Clemson has home-off-road-loss motivation and revenge motivation because VT beat them last year. Clemson is know as a great rushing team, but their new QB has 12 td passes and only 1 pic. (Lose 41-23.......Clemson outgains them by 160 yards and gives 3 unrequited turnovers: Sick. Clemson's defense is now highly suspect. How does VT score 41 points with only 219 offensive yards?! Beats me, I didnt see the game)

ILLINOIS -2 over Wisconsin-------------I've been on Illinois for the last 3 weeks and they havent let me down. This is home-revenge for them but look at Wisconsin's weakness: they've covered one spread, they let Citadel score 31 off them, they've only played 1 road game at UNLV(where they benefited from +1 on the turnover ratio and still failed to cover by 17) and their, I dont consider Michigan State and Iowa(both home games for Wisc) to be a strong schedule. Badgers are a weak 5-0 and Illinois is good to go this year. (Win 31-26)

Uab vs Mississippi State UNDER 47.5-----------Bad passers here and I think both teams would prefer to run. Miss State had only 18 passing attempts vs Auburn. The score on this game last year was 16-10 (Win 30-13.....MSU only 20 passing attempts)

TENNESSEE +1 over Georgia------------Tenn coming off a home. A powerful combination. Tenn has lost twice on the road to Cal and Fla. I wont write them off till they lose at home to a good team; they still have Ainge who is doing good so far (Win 35-14)

CENTRAL FLORIDA -3.5 over East Carolina-----------I think Central Florida just has too much and EC has too little. EC lost to Southern Miss at home EVEN WHILE BENEFITING FROM +2 ON THE TURNOVER RATIO and now we know that, after losing to Rice at home, Southern Miss is not very good. EC beat North Carolina(they suck) by 3, failing to cover, and also benefited from a +2 ratio in that game. CF lost to Texas only by 3 and the turnover ratio was even. (Lose 52-38......Central Florida outgains them by 125 yards, totally winning the 1st half, and winds up giving a MINUS 5 ON THE TURNOVER RATIO.....and loses. This sick, disgusting loss was, FASCINATINGLY, not the most undeserved win for a team that should have lost. UCLA somehow was MINUS SEVEN on the TO ratio and lost to Notre Dame. But this is the kind of shit that happens to road teams; they find a way to lose when everybody KNOWS they should win)
Utah vs Louisville UNDER 62.5-----------Utah's rush defense looks soft so I think Louisville may choose to run a bit more than usual. Utah's defense altogether doesnt look too bad(UCLA only scored 6 against them) and their offense looks weak(they've scored only 7 points in their 2 road games this year). Their starting QB was only 46% before he was replaced. Louisville's scoring average is juiced up with games vs Kentucky and Murray state(Lose 44-35......Louisville's defense is probably one of the 3 worst defenses in the history of college football.....possibly the worst ever)
CLEVELAND(Carmona) +115 (BCLI line Cleve -170) over Yankees(Pettitte)-----------I have to wonder if the creators of this (+115) line actually saw the game yesterday. The crowd was deafening. I forgot about how much people want to see the Yankees get beat. AND I forgot about how sick the Yankees bullpen is. Yesterday's bet was a terrible mistake. Carmona may not get as many K's as Sabathia, but he's more difficult to hit. In fact, he's about 50 points harder to hit than Pettitte. If Cleveland comes with anything like they had yesterday, they win easily. And this line is WAY off.(Win 2-1)

Thursday, October 04, 2007

YANKEES(Wang) -120 (BCLI line -110) over Cleve(Sabathia)-------------Indians are thought of as a good offense; but the Yankees hit 22 points higher and slug 35 points higher. Yankees also hit .284 off lhp's. I think Yanks have to have psychological edge here; they are away from the pressure of their home crowd(whom they have failed miserably in recent years) and they still have the momentum from their mid-season comeback.(Lose 12-3......Wrong. Indians came to hit and Yankees....4 hits off Sabathia?! Pathetic. They have no chance now....well, maybe against Byrd or Westbrook, but for this series? No, no chance. Forgot about Yanks bullpen--it sucks)

Wednesday, October 03, 2007

PHILLIES(Hamels) -160(1ST 5 INNINGS ONLY) over Col(Francis)---------Francis has faced Phillies twice and been crushed twice.....20 hits in 8 innings total. Rockies offense is in top shape but I think Hamels is the ONLY pitcher they wont rock on the Phillies. I dont see why or how Francis will suddenly be able to shut down the Phillies. He's much more hittable than Hamels.(Lose 3-2....Hey, If Phillies cant win with Hamels......they are DONE! Thought they could at least take this one)

Monday, October 01, 2007

CINCINATTI +7.5 over Patriots-----------Bengals home off 2 road losses(in which they were a total of -4 on the TO ratio). Also home revenge as Pats beat them last year. Rudi Johnson being out doesnt really bother me; they're not gonna try to run much on New England no matter who their RB is. The question for the Patriots is: can they beat a good passer? They've faced Buffalo, San Diego, Jets. We now know that San Diego really sucks, and the Jets and Bills......not very good teams and all three with passers inferior to Palmer. I love the Patriots and I have Moss on my fantasy team, but there is no way that a home team will collapse on Monday night for the 3rd consecutive week(I think that would be an extremely rare occurrence if it happened). Motivation is too strong here for Bengals; if they lose they're 1-3. If Patriots lose, so what? They'd still be 3-1. If disaster strikes, Palmer will pass them back within 1 TD and this bet will cover. Unlike NCAA football and MLB, the NFL has something called 'parity'. That means Bengals cover.(Lose 34-13.....Sick performance by Bengals; this team sucks and they're quitters)