Thursday

BCLI plays went 3-2 yesterday moving total to 18-19 -2.28units
BCLI theoretical plays on all games went 8-3 moving total up to 42-42 -3.9units

Baltimore +117(BCLI line Tex -169) over Texas-----upon close inspection, I see that the BCLI line is no good here. Texas, though highly offensively capable, has not been scoring well throughout their last 10 or 11 games. Since coming back from injury, Eaton has had 3 successful starts out of 7. Cabrera, however, has had 3 successful starts out of 4 since he came back. Cabrera has also lowered his BB/IP ratio to 11 BB's in 27 IP's in his last 4 games.

Lines: Philadelphia -131(BCLI line -147) vs Washington
Atl -180(BCLI line -182) vs SF
Houston -200(BCLI line -134) vs Milwaukee
Stl -121(BCLI line Fla -113) vs Florida
Colorado -118(BCLI line -103) vs Mets
Texas -127(BCLI line -169) vs Baltimore

Wednesday:

BCLI plays went 0-3 moving total to 15-17 -3.28units
BCLI line theoretical plays(on 10 cent or more differentials from the official line) moved to 34-39 -9.6units

I'm pissed off about this day. Goddammit. Armas, now, is not a good pitcher. 2 straight fucking rockings. The official line was right about Boston: they are not a dangerous offense anymore. Carlos Pena, Ortiz's replacement, hasnt learned anything about hitting since when he was with the Tigers. He's gotta let his hands float out, away from his body if he's gonna make contact on anything but the most right-down-the-middle pitches. He did that once when he was slumping with the Tigers, and he hit better. But he's clearly not doing it anymore. But partly, i guess, it was Saarloos, who is better now i guess. And I do regret not taking Florida because i almost did. Mulder didnt prove anything in his return from injury last start and Olsen is good. Damn. Fuck.

I bet Florida on Monday but I didnt get up in time to post any plays. Florida is hot. I did, however, watch the best "Intervention" I've ever seen. Yes, I laughed like a maniac as the girl proudly exulted in the pleasures of her 'Meth' lifestyle, calling it 'fun' to be possessed by the Devil. And now, on this dreadful day, the Devil laughs at BCLI. This will not stand. I condemn you Satan and all your works. And I guarantee a string of winning days. THIS WILL NOT STAND.

*La Angels -120(BCLI line -155) over Seattle-------ok, Seattle's on a win streak; but their offense is still weak. They've won 6 straight games while scoring 6 runs in three of those games; in the other three games they scored only 4 runs or 2 runs. Woods shut down the Angels for 5 innings recently, good, I bet the Angels will get revenge here. Lackey was rocked by Seattle last start against them, good, he'll put them back in their place now. Lackey HAS been giving up more hits lately, but opposing batters are still hitting only .240 off him.

Florida +124(BCLI line Fla -110) over Stl-------I'll atone for my sin of not taking florida yesterday by taking them here, playing for their 10th straight win. Offensively, Florida has been scoring at least as much, probably more actually, than the Cardinals during the last month or so. And I've been wanting to bet against Marquis who is not very good this year. Nolasco, in congruence with my betting methodology, was rocked last start so he should come back stronger today. Left handed batters hit nolasco well, but rhb's only hit .227 off him....and the Cardinals, besides Edmonds, dont really have many left handed hitters with Pujols and Rolen constituting the bulk of their offense.

Milwaukee +180(BCLI line Milwaukee +133) over Houston-----I'm biased against Clemens, being 44 years old, but this game does fit into my conceptual framework of what works over the long term. Bush's last start he got hit by Florida, thus he'll rebound here. And Clemens shut down Milwaukee last meeting, thus the Brewers will get revenge this time. Milwaukee's low scoring bothers me(they've been facing good pitchers recently) but Houston's offense is just about as weak, as their #3 hitter, Biggio, is hitting .255.

Oakland -135(BCLI line -147) over Boston-------Like a pack of wild dogs dismembering the carcass; like a vulture circling the rotting carrion, I want to make some money off this feeble Red Sox skeleton. To hell with Schilling, batters hitting .270 off him, he's allowed more hits than innings pitched. And this is not true of Zito who holds opposing batters to only about a .255 average. Fuck the Red Sox, they've lost me enough money.

Atl vs SF under 9.5(-105)------this will be the last under bet i make if it loses. im sick of losing on totals. SF cant hit and they cant score, James and Hennessey are doing good this year, and 9.5 is a high enough number to go under.

Tuesday

plays:
Boston -118(BCLI line -178) over Oakland------this is a bargain price for Boston due to their being, like, 2-8 in their last 10 games while Oakland is, like, 7-3 in their last ten AND the fact that Ortiz is out and Ramirez is out. That's bad for Boston but I like this pitching matchup too much to ignore. Beckett is much harder to hit than Saarloos, a pitcher just promoted from the bullpen, for whom I have never had very much respect. Beckett was rocked in his last meeting with Oakland and I expect a good rebound from that.

Arizona +118(BCLI line AZ -109)-------Gonzalez was rocked in his last start...and his start before that was bad. However, these were both on the road and Gonzalez's ERA is about 4 points better at home this year. In fact, Gonzalez has been very good at home with an ERA of 3.17. Opposing batters hit about .260 off him and .240 off Young. Young IS better, of course, but probably not 70 cents better, which is what it looks like the official line is deeming him. Az's offense is hitting about 10 points higher than SD's. Gonzalez should WANT to come back and do well here against one of the weaker offenses in baseball, but even if he doesnt, Young doesnt pitch deep into games and should be gone after the 5th or 6th inning, in which case you'll have a +118 price on the home team with a better offense.

Detroit +155(BCLI line Det +113)------Wang is, incredibly, 15-5 yet he gives up more than 1 hit per inning and doesnt strike too many people out(he does, however, tend to last into the late innings.) Robertson is harder to hit, slightly better on the road, and is coming off a rocking by the white sox last start for which he will be seeking redemption. The Yankees offense is moderately better than the Tigers' but K-Rod has struck out a phenomenal 10 times in his last 15 at-bats. Look at it this way: The Tigers, the winningest team in baseball, have won at least 4 more games on the road than any other team has won on the road. And they've won 3 more games on the road than the Yankees have won AT HOME. Yet, in this road game, the Tigers are +155 vs Wang, a guy who opposing batters are hitting about .280 off of??!! Gotta take that.

Phi vs Washington under 9.5(-110)-----I question Armas' reliability sometimes but I still believe he is a good pitcher. He was rocked last game and Myers was very recently rocked by Washington. In this situation, I bet on a reversal. And 9.5 is pretty high for a national league game.

lines: Phi -155(BCLI line -180) vs Wash
Cubs -139(BCLI line -138) vs Pitt
Atl -117(BCLI line -135) vs SF
Hou -200(BCLI line -155) vs Mil
Stl -118(BCLI line -103) vs Fla
Mets -125(BCLI line -150) vs Col
AZ +118(BCLI line AZ -109) vs SD
LAD -132(BCLI line -122) vs Cin
Yankees -165(BCLI line -123) vs Detroit
Cleve -175(BCLI line -155) vs Toronto
Texas -155(BCLI line -186) vs Balt
CWS -210(BCLI line -255) vs Tampa Bay
Minn -190(BCLI line -165) vs KC
Boston -118(BCLI line -178) vs Oakland
Angels -150(BCLI line -170) vs Seattle

Monday:

Recap of Sunday:
BCLI plays went 4-2 moving total to 15-14 + 0.00units
BCLI line hypothetical plays on all games moved total to 27-33 -10.75units
BCLI starred plays moved to 3-3 -.42units

The Toronto under was a stupid mistake. BCLI totally forgot to consider that both the Royals and the Blue Jays have shown proficiency(especially the Blue Jays) in hitting left handed pitchers this year. I was pissed at Toronto for hitting like shit recently when i bet on them. I will never ever again bet against the Toronto offense when facing a LHP. And Lilly did NOT redeem himself after 2 bad starts. Note: Two bad starts makes redemption LESS likely than only having had one bad start. Padilla kicked Oakland's ass for the 2nd time. Hmmm. He's having a good year. The Reds' offense sucks right now.

TIMLIN SUCKS

Recap of Saturday:
BCLI plays fall to 11-12 -1.85units as 40-year-old piece of shit Mike Timlin ruins a fine David Wells 7inning performance and the Reds fail AGAIN to hit when this time they really should have.
BCLI line hypothetical plays on all games rose a bit to 22-29 -11.62units

Analysis: The Red Sox are done. Fucking idiots. You're 5 games out of the playoffs.....you're looking at a win.....LET PAPELBON PITCH SIX FUCKING OUTS. Total idiocy. well, they'd got knocked out in post-season play with Lester and Wells anyway. who cares. But Cincinatti, they have the pitching to get to the series.....and apparently they've decided to.....stop hitting. Fine. Griffey doesnt deserve it anyway; he's got absolutely no will to win. Keep hitting .253 and be happy.......as a LOSER. I never even realized Royce Clayton was in that lineup. psshhhh. Forget them.

Plays:

* KC vs Toronto UNDER 10(-115)------Look, if you cant beat Runelvys Hernandez, you should quit. Jays offense just withering away on the vine. Jays got blanked by Loaiza(thats bad) and just barely beat the lhp Halsey. They are NOT hitting like they did. Lilly will redeem himself after his 2 consecutive bad starts and I vowed to play Perez this start due to his surprisingly good results last time. I feel good about this one.

Oakland +100(BCLI line Oak +129) -------Haren's gotta redeem himself for getting slaughtered by Toronto las start and Oakland has to get revenge against Padilla for shutting them down last meeting. Texas offense simply not hitting recently when they SHOULD have hit. They're weakening.

CWS -140 (BCLI line -172) over Minnesota------Silva did ok vs CWS last time, but considering the fact that he is one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, I'd expect the white sox to rip into him this time. He got rocked last start, but he wont redeem himself for trying because he's not a good pitcher. Buehrle was rocked by the Twins last time he faced them and I think he WILL redeem because he's a decent pitcher(tho not as good as last year)

SF -127(BCLI line -138) over SF and UNDER 9(-130)-------Lohse may do well(SF cant hit anyway) as he has been pitching out of his mind since joining the Reds. But you cant, at this point, expect the Reds to hit Cain, a good pitcher so far. I hate the Reds and I hope Cain has some offspeed to make Griffey look like a fool.

Balitmore -160(BCLI line -185) over Tampa bay--------Loewen out to avenge the rocking he took at the hands of Tampa last meeting. He has become a pretty good pitcher. Howell has done nothing.

Lines: Fla -111(BCLI line -134) vs Mil
Atl -175(BCLI line -175) vs Wash
Mets -135(BCLI line -155) vs Phil-----almost bet Mets here. Maine's gotta be more than 15 cents better than Moyer
Pitt +101(BCLI line Pitt -122) vs Houston
Stl -165(BCLI line -165) vs Cubs
SD -113(BCLI line -126) vs Col
AZ +104(BCLI line AZ -112) vs LAD
Cleve +105(BCLI line cleve -132) vs Det
Tor -180(BCLI line -172) vs KC
LAA -112(BCLI line -121) vs NYY
Boston -105(BCLI line -139) vs Seattle

Saturday

Recap of friday:
BCLI plays went 1-2 moving total to 11-10 + .33units
BCLI line (10 cent or more differentials) hypothetical plays on all games moved to 18-24 -12.35units
BCLI starred plays moved to 3-2 + .73units

Cincinatti +104 (BCLI line -163) over San Francisco--------Reds lost for BCLI last night but I'll play them again at this price. Its clear to me that the official linemakers think Lowry is better than I believe he is. Reds have hit LHP's better all year and they've significantly out paced the Giants in run scoring. I still contend the line is wrong. bet reds.

Boston -118(BCLI line -142) over seattle------seattle is pumped after beating yankees and boston is 3-7 in their last 10. Ok, so due to that, linemakers give you a bargain here. Seattle offense has been DECLINING worse than any other team over recent weeks. Wells has shown, recently, that he still knows how to pitch. Meche, I do not consider to be an above average pitcher. He's ok, but he walks 1 every 2 innings(that's a tendency toward wildness) and Boston takes more walks then any other team. That, and the fact that boston has a huge offensive advantage over seattle, is why -118 is cheap.

Lines: Atl -230(BCLI line -200) vs wash
Stl -220 (BCLI line -221) vs Cubs
Fla -134 (BCLI line -181) vs Mil----actually Davis is better than i thought. the official line is probably better.
Pitt +100(BCLI line +102) vs Hou
Phi +102(BCLI line Phi -106) vs Mets
Col -131(BCLI line -127) vs SD
Az +102(BCLI line +100) vs LAD
Tor -320(BCLI line -230) vs KC
LAA -106(BCLI line -105) vs Nyy
Balt -165(BCLI line -181) vs TB
CWS +117(BCLI line CWS -130) vs Minn
Cleve +109(BCLI line Cleve -120) vs Det
Tex -129(BCLI line -160) vs Oak

Didnt look closely at all the games because I've got my fantasy football draft. will recap later

FRIDAY LATE GAMES

*LA ANGELS -115(BCLI line -153) over Yankees. This game has every characteristic BCLI looks for. 1) Wright has recently shutdown the Angels(Angels have motivation for revenge) 2) Lackey is coming off a rocking( He wants to get back to dominating badly) and 3) the price is right. the yanks have scored roughly 55 more runs than the Angels, but the Angels have actually been outscoring, or keeping pace with, the yanks over the last month or so. And fundamentally, Lackey is, i believe, about 60 cents better than Wright.

Cincinatti -103 (BCLI line 131) over SF------this line is just wrong. Harang and Morris are equals......Reds offense is significantly better.

La vs Arizona Under 9(+108)------Vargas is doing as well as he ever has, and his last start vs the Dodgers was poor(which means he'll do better tonight). Maddux is doing good with the Dodgers and by taking the under here, you can take advantage of the reality that the Dodgers offense is just getting weaker as the season goes on.

Lines: Colorado -155(BCLI line -153) vs SD
Arizona +108(BCLI line AZ -105) vs LAD
Oakland -117(BCLI line TX -134) vs Texas
Boston -163(BCLI line -221) vs Seattle

Friday
Recap of yesterday

V I C T O R Y ! S.B.T.C

BannedChatterLateInformation goes 2 - 0, bagging the +150 as Seattle beats the mighty Yankees.
BCLI plays go to 10-8 +1.36 units
BCLI line on all games goes to 16-21 -10.77 units

For the haters, who say I dont compute my wins and losses correctly, who, back in 1998, were working at Subway while I was collecting checks from subscribers posting on rec.gambling.sports and becoming a legitimate documented handicapper on Bigguy.com, I will show you how to grade a baseball bet. It's simple: if you bet ON the favorite which is selling at -130, you are risking 1.3 units to win 1 unit. If you lose with the favorite, you lose 1.3 units. If you take Seattle, as BCLI did yesterday, at +150, you are risking 1 unit to win 1.5 units.
(jeez, I love it, the yankees lose and the haters' big new york ego's are wounded.......so they unleash their bile upon BCLI!)

Ok, lets analyze the win. Its counterintuitive because you'd think, and i did earlier in my 8 years of baseball handicapping experience, that if a particular offense has crushed a particular pitcher once, that they should do it again. And you'd think, that if a particular pitcher has just pitched poorly in his last start, that maybe something's wrong with him and he will do poorly again. The reality is that the opposite tends to happen. Washburn was coming off a rocking by the Angels......and he bounced back to K 9 yankees. Randy Johnson had K'd 11 Mariners in his last start against them and when he faced them last night, the 2nd time.......well, he did alright, but just bad enough to lose, only K'ing 3. Josh Beckett had shut down the Angels recently, so on the basis of that, I deduced that he might do poorly vs them last night....but then I said, 'look, he's coming off two terrible starts, HE NEEDS TO REDEEM HIMSELF based on that.' That's why I laid off that game, because that was conflicting information. AND the price for the Angels was a bit too expensive. As a handicapper, I am more proud of that lay-off than my underdog Yankee slaying. Sure, the haters might say it was Ichiro who won Seattle that game with his remarkable defense. And I'd say look at what I wrote below 'Washburn's team owed him a win.'

Also for the haters, this: Remember how I cursed and slandered Danys Baez after he lost BCLI a game? Yeah. And then he had to have an emergency appendectomy.
"Take it on home and think it thru,
cuz the next rhyme i write might be about you"

Thursday

recap of yesterday: BCLI plays move total to 8-8 -1.14 units(yes, haters, yesterday was a winning day)
BCLI line plays on all games(against the official line when at least a 10 cent difference) moved to 12-19 -12.47 units overall.

Surprisingly, Esteban Loaiza, a Mexican drunk driver, decided to sober up and pitch a complete game shutout vs BCLI and the Blue Jays. This is after, and I think I wrote this, he, a few weeks ago, got rocked by Toronto. This is what I'm talking about when I say "reversal": teams, hitters, pitchers, they all make adjustments and try harder when they fail in a specific situation. My own bias against Oakland's .250 team batting average versus Toronto's superior hitting caused me to overlook this conflict of information and make a bet when I should have just not bet the game. The Red Sox DID get revenge on Escobar and that game worked out for me. The problem with Florida was that Olsen, a good pitcher whose lefthandedness I thought would allow Washington to hit him, was coming off TWO bad starts and he, presumably, bore down and redeemed himself because it meant so much to his self-conception of being a good pitcher. It was critical---for him--- in that situation. So, Rule: good pitchers GET THEIR REVENGE to redeem recent failures....usually. It worked for Myers yesterday as he dominated the Cubs.
Observations: Guzman, for the Cubs, looked good. Lester looked shaky(though he did redeem himself)

For those of you wondering about the genesis of BCLI. It started here in the chat box where one can hear much idiotic advice about trading and betting. Yesterday I heard this:

*******J(ackass): Why dont you sell those 100 Cleve at 3 Canuck?? $30 Then you can short Tiger with your winnings

The chatter, whose name I've blocked out, is recommending a bet against Cleveland at a price of roughly -3300. i.e. laying(putting at theoretical risk) 97 dollars to win 3 dollars( or $970 to win $30). So, you could either win 3 dollars or, if the trend of the game changes, watch your bet turn into some probable amount of loss considerably greater than $3. To me, this is just an example showing the PRICE ALWAYS MATTERS. You wanna use your 97 dollars to gluttonously 'buy' a 3 dollar profit??? Why? Its kind of like Donald Trump suing a writer for $5 Billion dollars, at least aesthetically. Its vulgar, crude, marginally profitable when it wins, and when it doesnt.........god, what a waste. Actually, trading like this is like playing a martingale system . Wikipedia probably needs some expansion on this entry. And I would implore the dope quoted above, if he reads this(yeah, he does because i see his anonymous hater-comments on here all the time) to do some research on the martingale, adding the numerous suicides which have resulted from this practice to the wikipedia definition.

plays:

Cincy vs SF under 9.5(-119)----both pitchers i would consider to be good and they're both coming off bad failures in their prior games. If you're a good pitcher in mlb, there is nothing you want more than to redeem yourself as quickly as possible after getting rocked. From my experience, I have to believe in this system.

Seattle +150(BCLI line +168) over Yankees------i think the line should favore Yanks just a little bit more than it does. Johnson has been doing well, but he has recently done well( 8 innings) vs Seattle.....and I like to bet on a reversal of fortune in these cases. Washburn's record sux, but if you look at his numbers, you'll see that he IS a decent pitcher----he usually keeps his team in the game.....except last start when he got rocked. Today he'll be trying to bounce back. With a decent + of +150(i'd like it to be a little more), I think seattle is playable(tho their offense has been declining) at home here. Washburn did 6 innings vs the Yanks last meeting giving up 1 run 9 hits....but he took the loss? His team owes him a win this time.

Lines: Pitt -115 (BCLI line -111) vs Houston
Mets -118(BCLI line -149) vs Stl
Cincy +102(BCLI line Cincy -134) vs SF
Balt -111(BCLI line -107) vs Minn
Tex -130(BCLI line -171) vs Tampa Bay
Cleve -170(BCLI line -156) vs KC
LaAngels -138(BCLI line -116) vs Boston----Oooh, i wanna take weaver but the price and the situation are not quite right

Wednesday 23rd plays What is the BCLI line?

Recap of yesterday:
BCLI plays went 4-3 bringing total to 6-6 -1.43 units.
BCLI line went 3-8 vs offical line bringing total(if, when BCLI line differs from official line by 10 cents or more, you played the side the BCLI line favored) to 6-14 -12.57 units.
BCLI starred plays went 1-1 for -.55 units
BCLI's bid for a winning day was foiled when Danys Baez, an overweight Cuban pedophile, was, instead of being deported to Guantanamo Bay, brought into to pitch for the Braves and walked 2, allowed 4 earned runs while only getting one batter out. Its difficult to handicap bullpen atrocities like this. The BCLI line, after giving every home team a 20 cent handicap, looks at a team's season history of total runs and gives, roughly, 1 cent of line handicap for every run the stronger offense, compared to the weaker scoring team, has scored. Then I look at the starters and decide which one is better and handicap that team up to a maximum of 70-90 cents. For example, if you have the best pitcher, like Johan Santana or Jered Weaver, starting against the worst pitcher in baseball, like Joe Mays, I would put about a 70 cent handicap on the team with the good pitcher. However, with the offensive differential, I might give up to a maximum of 110-140 cents.
Surprises: Kazmir, Chacon, Odalis Perez for KC and Lohse did better than i expected. Mental note: play Perez next time he pitches. Downgrade Dodger offense after getting shut down again by Peavy. Milwaukee and Colorado are both WEAK offenses, dont play the over them them.


BCLI plays:
*BOSTON +133 (BCLI line BOS -114) over La Angels-----Lester has been doing worse lately than he did initially and he got whacked last time he faced the Angels(I almost always bet on the failed party, in this case Lester, making adjustments to do better this time). However, the Red sox are the better offense( tho the Angels have scored equally well over the last 3-4 weeks). Escobar's last start vs Boston was good(they'll hit him this time). opposing batters are hitting about .273 off Escobar. That's about average and the Red Sox have scored more runs than every team in baseball except the Indians and the Whitesox. Lester walks a few more people than the average pitcher; this will hurt the Angels because they really, REALLY, dont take walks.

*TORONTO -105(BCLI line -180) over Oakland------Loaiza was rocked recently by the Blue Jays. Normally, I'd find a way to bet on a reversal of this failure but no, Loaiza sux and i dont like him. I'll take toronto at -105 all day all week all year. opposing batters hit over .300 vs Loaiza; he's just not very good. Chacin, a pitcher i liked, comes back to pitch for toronto after being hurt.

WASHINGTON +118(BCLI line FLA -154) over Florida------upon scrutiny, I think the official line has it right: Olsen is coming off 2 very poor starts, though he IS a good pitcher. In this spot where Olsen may be weak, I think Washington, a team that has hit better, and well, vs left handed pitchers all year, should get revenge on Olsen for how he shut them down in their last meeting. Armas having a good year, I like him.

PHILADELPHIA -155 (BCLI line -176) over Cubs-------Guzman has been wild and the phillies take about 1 walk every 9 at bats, which is pretty close to the best(Boston taking 1 walk every 8 ab's). Myers usually does well and he will want to do well today since his last start was terrible. Cubs relative offensive weakness make this price playable

lines: Mets -138(BCLI line -128) vs Stl
Atl -170(BCLI line -194) vs Pitt
Mil -153(BCLI line -124) vs Col
Lad -114(BCLI line -113) vs SD
Minn +105(BCLI line Minn -127) vs Balt
Cws -105 (BCLI line -107) vs Det
Tex -153(BCLI line -200) vs Tampa Bay
Cleve -150(BCLI line -163) vs KC
Nyy -130 (BCLI line -145) vs Sea

Tuesday 22nd

Recap of yesterday: BCLI plays go 2-3 for -1.42 units as John Gibbons, in an act of managerial terrorism, pulls Ted Lilly in the 3rd inning while the Blue Jays were LEADING THE GAME. The terrorist then attacked Lilly in the dugout, disgraced the organization, lost Toronto the game and caused BCLI to have a losing day.
If you played the BCLI line against the official line on all games, you'd have gone 3-6 for -6.42 units.

BCLI failed to make plays on games it almost did, but didnt. All three of these games(Verlander over Contreras(classic reversal), Cin under(classic reversal) and SF) won. BCLI laments these mistakes of ommission. they wont happen again as BCLI guarantees a winning day today.

BCLI plays:

*Atlanta -155(BCLI line -182) over Pitt----Chacon just pitched well vs Atl and im confident the Braves will destroy him today because 1) he's actually a bad mlb pitcher and 2) atl is clearly a stronger offense than pitt. Villarreal, if you look at his number, has been pretty effective tho he'll probably only go 5 innings.

*Toronto -153 (BCLI line -207) over Oakland----Toronto CRUSHES lhp's and Halsey is one. Burnett has done well and Blue Jay offense is so much better than oak that its worth the price.

Balt -105(BCLI line -102) over Minnesota-----Silva does not walk people and Baltimore....does not take walks. Orioles will jump to the lead as they rock Silva early.

Colorado vs Milwaukee OVER 8-----Cook just pitched a good 8 inn vs milwaukee, He'll not do so good this time because he's not that good. I like Capuano but Colorado has been hitting well ---close to .300--- vs lhp's.

Mets -143 (BCLI line -179) over Stl------Maine has to be at least 30 cents better than Weaver this year. Mets at home with a BETTER offense.........gotta play mets at this price.


Cincinatti -125(BCLI line -174)-------Dont know anything about Hirsh but Reds are 40 runs better than Houston, at home and Lohse, tho i dont like him, has had a few good 5 inning games lately.

Cleveland -141(BCLI line -153)-----Perez just pitched well vs Cleveland so Im going against him. Lee's not great but despite KC's recent offensive improvement, Indians are still HUGELY more offensive. so i'll take this price.

Lines: FLA -167 (BCLI line -157) vs Washington
Mil -150(BCLI line -138 vs Colorado
Phi -131 (BCLI line -139) vs Cubs
SD -153 (BCLI line -105) vs LAD-----would not be surprised if Peavy got hit today. Dodgers always undervalued.
AZ -108 (BCLI line -120) vs SF
DET -113 (BCLI line -109) vs Cws
TEX -111 (BCLI line -145) vs Tampa bay-----tx hits lhp's....i'd probably play them if there werent other better games today
LAA -135(BCLI line -107) vs Boston----yeah, i see it; Snyder sux and Saunders has been very good.

Monday Aug 21st

Plays:
LAD -113(BCLI line -146) over San Diego----Billingsley now ON FIRE. Park just an average MLB pitcher. And the dodgers have scored about 60 more runs this year than the padres.

Phillies -130(BCLI line -210) over Cubs----Lieber is at least 40 cents better than Hill, who sucks. Phillies have been improving vs lhp's, Lieber has been doing well. Cubs have scored about 100 fewer runs than the phillies this year and the line is completely ignoring that.

Toronto +107(BCLI line TOR -200) over oakland------unless you believe that Haren is, like, 70 cents better than Lilly, you should bet toronto. Oakland is about the 4th lowest scoring team in baseball while toronto is in the top 5. A HUGE OFFENSIVE DIFFERENTIAL. I actually think Lilly is about, or almost, as good as Haren. I suspect Haren is better against weak teams and goes till the 7th inning a lot whereas Lilly goes only till the 6th. whatever. Lets see what Haren does against a strong Blue Jay offense.

Texas -129(BCLI line -202)-----both pitchers are doing good but again, I dont feel the line is reflective of Texas' huge offensive advantage.

Cincinatti -117(BCLI line -185) over houston----the reds have hit lhp's better all year and they've scored about 45 more runs than houston. the offensive differential and the home field advantage are not reflected in the line. Arroyo, at a minimum, is slightly better than Pettitte(i actually think he's significantly better). Both pitchers have failed against their respective opponents recently so, on the reversal principle, I wouldnt be surprised if this game went under.

lines: Florida -133(BCLI line -121) vs Washington.
Atlanta -190(BCLI line -215) vs Pitt.
Arizona +102(BCLI line AZ -118) vs SF------ok, I see whats up here. Hernandez might get rocked. A giants play makes some sense.
ChiWhiteSox +100(BCLI line CWS -123) vs Detroit.--------Hmmm. Contreras has shut down Tigers twice recently.....Verlander just rocked by cws.....based on the reversal theorum, I'd see the logic in a Tigers bet here