Sunday, October 26, 2008

PHILLIES(Blanton) -103 over Tampa(Sonnanstine)----------I think Howard could hit here; Sonnanstine throws some kind of a drop ball and Howard seems to hit lower pitches better. Both pitchers are hittable. Altho Kent state overperformed yesterday and Kentucky DRASTICALLY underperformed, I'll take a home team at this price because, after all, Sun and Stein just dont go together.(Win 10-2)
World Series is turning on the tiniest events
By Tim Brown, Yahoo! Sports 4 hours, 13 minutes ago

PHILADELPHIA – By Sunday morning here, the clouds were gone.
The baseball lingered, though.
From the muggy western coast of Florida to the cooling eastern edge of Pennsylvania, the venue changed but the spirit of this World Series did not.
Three games are spent, and the next meaningless at-bat will be the first.
The concluding half innings of each game have seen 12 plate appearances, 11 of them taken with a chance to tie the score or take a lead. Or win a ballgame.
And so we get reliever Tampa Bay Rays reliever Grant Balfour extending his hand to a fallen Evan Longoria, hoisting the third baseman from the infield grass at Citizens Bank Park early Sunday morning after he’d vainly tried to throw out Eric Bruntlett at home plate, just as bars all over town were raising their lights.
We get Philadelphia Phillies slugger Ryan Howard rolling again into the teeth of a defensive shift in Game 2, wondering when the swing will come, and then having it arrive two nights later.
We get the Rays, one by one by one, swinging over the top of Brad Lidge’s sliders in Game 1, when a single run would grant them life again.
The Phillies lead, two games to one. They play again Sunday night amid the white hankies; the puddles gone, the Rays healing.
The Rays are batting .200. Their on-base percentage is .255. Yet, until now, it was the Phillies who’d had to explain the disappearance of a reliable offense, which has two hits – neither of which left the infield – with runners in scoring position.
They have 10 runs apiece.
And they have another game coming, Joe Blanton against Andy Sonnanstine, the Phillies regaining their power strokes, the Rays pressing their usual game.
So far, they have played to their reputations. They pitch first, and clean up what comes.
Then the Phillies wait on something down and in to Chase Utley, the pitches he’s hit for home runs against Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza. And they wait for Howard to find a ball up in the strike zone, which has been rare, but not absent. They wait for opportunity, and hope they don’t miss, and hope Jimmy Rollins is on base.
And the Rays play their out-there game of extreme shifts and subtle strategies and ear flaps. They are clearly unafraid. They carry their resilience as a more veteran club carries its assuredness. Their manager, Joe Maddon, stood on his home infield just the other day and asked, “Do you believe in ‘Blink?’ ”
Meaning Malcolm Gladwell’s “power of thinking without thinking.” Meaning Cliff Floyd barreling home on a safety squeeze. Meaning rapid cognition, not seat-of-your-pants whim.
“It’s more than intuition,” he said.
He smiled.
“Something doesn’t turn out right,” he said, “everybody assumes it was the wrong thing to do.”
The Phillies lead because a curveball brushed Eric Bruntlett’s leg, and a fastball went to the backstop, and they did not refuse that good fortune. The Rays trail because the Phillies can be equally opportunistic, even if their games sometimes look so dissimilar.
The series is where it is because someone, indeed, had to blink, and someone had to press that advantage.
A few hours before sun-up, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel considered what had transpired in three games, best he could.
“I’d say, what, we’re 2-1 and actually we could have been 3-0 or basically Tampa could have been 3-0,” he said. “The games have been close, and there’s been chances for both teams to win all the games. So far it’s been an outstanding series. We’ve made mistakes mentally and physically, but at the same time I think our pitching has been very good in the series, and it’s been good the whole series, so really, look, we’ve got to come out and win tomorrow like we’re trying to win the series.”
That’s where it stands. Don’t blink.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

MICHIGAN +4 over Michigan State---------------Home-off-road-loss for Michigan(MSU has the revenge). They are 1-6 ATS and won the 1st half last week at Penn State before Paterno summoned demonic forces to turn the worm(the whole state of Pennsylvania is gonna be condemned for some time). Michigan's 'minus on the TO ratio' problems should end today. (Lose 35-21)

FLORIDA ST -6.5 over Virginia Tech------------VT specializes in rushing and FSU has a very good rushing defense. VT was +2 on the turnover ratio against NC. FSU has the home-revenge(Win 30-20)

KENT STATE +5 over Miami-Ohio-------------Kent is off the bye week and has the revenge(Win 54-21)

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

TEMPLE -4 over Ohio----------Temple has home-off-road-loss and the revenge as they lost to Ohio last year. Temple also is going for its first home win. Im looking for it to come together for Temple here at home.(Push 14-10)

Monday, October 20, 2008

DENVER +3(-115) over Patriots-------If you dont already know, or havent figured it out, the theme of the current.....ummm era is a kind of reckoning. Those who have underperformed in the past, tend to overperform in the present. Although, Patriots have home-off-road-loss motivation, they dont seem to have the right colored uniforms. Blue....water and truth. White.....innocence and guilelessness. What did the Patriots do last year....ummmm, cheat by using a video camera? Yes, they did it. They are not innocent or guileless. Cutler is going to be a phenomenal player this year. Denver also wears a more flexible color: orange. Denver is far too good to have only gone 1-4 ATS this year(Lose 41-7......uhhh, scam)

Sunday, October 19, 2008

PANTHERS -3 over New Orleans----------home revenge and home-off-road loss for Carolina. They're 3-0 at home and with Bush and Colston on the injury list, I think Chris Gamble could have a big day against the Saints passing-heavy offense. (Win 30-7)

BUFFALO pk over Chargers-------San Diego has either lost or gotten extraordinarily lucky playing on the road this year. Buffalo has home-off-road-loss motivation. Chargers' defense is suspect. (Win 23-17)

MIAMI -3 over Baltimore--------Home-off-road-loss for Miami and Ravens have been getting weaker. I saw Suze Orman swimming with Dolphins on tv which means she's probably betting them too. She is a winner so i like Miami in this spot. (Lose 27-13)

BENGALS +9.5 over Pittsburgh--------Revenge for Cincinatti as Pitt beat them last year and they have home-off-road-loss motivation. Bengals going for 1st home, make that 1st win of the season period AND you get 9 and half? Good deal (Lose 38-10)

Below are two picks(one of which I definitely agree with, as you can see from above). The Packers, well, I agree that the Colts got lucky to beat Houston, but Packers are only 1-2 at home this year....hopefully, they'll get their 2nd home win here. I trust the source of the below material; she has definitely been winning. I know because I've called for her free picks quite a bit.

(427) IND Colts(428) GB Packers
Take " (428) GB Packers
" Indianapolis (3-2 SU, 2-2-1 ATS, 3-2 O/U) finally christened their new home, Lucas Oil Stadium, with a convincing win over the Baltimore Ravens, 31-3. The Colts lost starting RB Joseph Addai in the first quarter and RB Mike Hart in the second quarter to injuries. Both players will be out extended time and will not play today. That left Dominic Rhodes to shoulder all the rushing duties for Indianapolis. WR Marvin Harrison caught just three passes but had 83 yards and two touchdowns. The only downside to the Colts win was that the club was penalized 11 times for 84 yards. "We're not going to be able to afford to have that many penalties and give up that many yards," HC Tony Dungy said. The Colts have done well against the NFC of late going 9-2 ATS the last 11 vs NFC Opponents and 11-2 ATS the last 13 on the road vs the NFC. Green Bay (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U) were benefactors of a banged up Seahawks team last week and had little difficulty in winning, 27-17. The Packers improved to 13-6 on the road under HC Mike McCarthy. They had just one turnover and five penalties for 50 yards. "We didn't hardly have any mistakes," Packer's defensive player Ryan Pickett said. "Better gap control. Their plan was to run the ball, run the ball. We did a good job of stopping the run, and they didn't have an option then." The Packers are 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. Packers are tough at home and with Indy outside on the grass, we'll go with the home team here just to win straight up. (Win 34-14)

(411) BAL Ravens(412) MIA Dolphins
Take " (412) MIA Dolphins
" Baltimore (2-2 SU/3-1 ATS) has a new coach in John Harbaugh, the former Philadelphia Eagles secondary coach. However, the offense is erratic/one-dimensional, while the defense is very good. Rookie QB Joe Flacco is the starter, but the offense has a lot of work to do. Don't be fooled by the 28 points they had against the Browns: QB Flacco completed just 13 passes for 129 yards, no TDs and 2 picks. It's the running game, behind Willis MacGahee and Le'Ron McClain, that has been carrying the load. Plus, Baltimore has gone an NFL-best 22 straight games without allowing a 100-yard rusher. QB Flacco looked like a rookie on the road in Sunday's 31-3 loss at Indy, with 3 picks. The Colts' defense took the cue, frustrating rookie quarterback Joe Flacco all day and limiting the Ravens to 49 yards in the first 2 1/2 quarters. This is the third road game for the Ravens, and they are 1-9 SU, 1-9 ATS their last 10 away. The Dolphins (2-3 SU/ATS) are rebuilding and playing very well for new coach Tony Sporano. They looked awful the first two games, then pulled a shocker, a 38-13 win at New England, rolling up 461 yards (216 rushing). They used several trick formations allowing RB Ronnie Browns to run for 114 yards, 4 TDs, while also THROWING for another TD! They actually have decent QB play with veteran Chad Pennington, who carved up the Pats (17-of-20, 226 yards). They are going with the youth movement on defense with LB Channing Crowder, rookie DE Philip Merling (Clemson) and 2nd-year DE Quentin Moses (Georgia). Miami is off a loss at the Texans, 29-28. "This was pretty frustrating for a lot of reasons," defensive end Vonnie Holliday said. "For us, it's just an opportunity squandered." Only one team has a QB in this game and with the Dolphins playing with much more confidence this year, the home team is the play here on Sunday.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Boston(Beckett) vs Tampa(Shields) UNDER 9------Beckett has done extraordinarily well vs Tampa in the regular season. Shields....and this is interesting, has gotten rocked by Boston AT boston twice but pitched a 9 inning 2 hitter against boston at Tampa. This game is at tampa so.....I think an o/u of 9 is too high.(Win 4-2)

Monday, October 13, 2008

*CLEVELAND +8 over Giants---------HUGE motivational convergence here as Browns are home off the bye week going against the defending Super Bowl champions and looking for their first home win on MNF. The Browns will have to be really bad(maybe they are) to not cover in this spot. But are the Giants really so good having blown out NFL weaklings STL and SEA? Jeez, they only outgained the Bengals by 50 yards! (Bengals actually lost to the Browns.....altho at -3 on the turnover ratio). If the Giants are destined to blowout the Browns after blowing out Seattle, why couldnt they blowout the Bengals after blowing out the Rams? (Win 35-14)

Sunday, October 12, 2008

BALTIMORE + 10.5 over Colts teased with JETS -2.5 over Bengals teased with PACKERS +8 over Seattle(+150)----------Baltimore has outgained every team they've played while the Colts have only outgained 1 team that they've played. Balt specializes in rushing and Colts run defense has been weak. Balt has the revenge after losing to Colts last year and they are coming off 2 losses while Colts are coming off a lucky win. Jets off the bye at home; their defense should be strong enough to stop whatever offense the Bengals can muster without Palmer at QB. Green Bay needs this win after 3 losses and altho Seahawks have home-off-road-loss, they were COMING OFF THEIR BYE last week and still got totally blown out. I think they're a weak team and may not have their starting QB this game(this could actually help them as Hasselback has been throwing only 48% this year) (Lose by by 17.5....Ravens -4 on the turnover ratio.....Colts may be getting it together)

BALTIMORE +3.5 over Colts (Lose 31-3)
PACKERS pk(+100) over Seattle(Win 27-17)

Saturday, October 11, 2008

GEORGIA -6.5 over Tennessee teased with Toledo vs Michigan OVER 43.5---------Georgia is off the bye at home and has the revenge while Tennessee is looking very weak, struggling to beat Northern Illinois, struggling to score points and having lost to UCLA. Michigan's rushing defense is probably the best part of their team and I dont think Toledo will try to run. So I expect 40+ passing attempts by them. Michigan's rushing is the best part of their offense and I think they could be successful against Toledo's weak rushing defense. (Lose by 20.5....well, Toledo's Qb had 50 passing attempts....that's usually enough, but not here. hmmm?)

KENTUCKY +9 over South Carolina teased with MISSISSIPPI STATE +8 over Vanderbilt--------Miss State off the bye at home......I'll give them a try here altho Im cautious since their offense hasnt produced much yet and Vandy's new Qb looks like a good runner. Vanderbilt, of course, has been very lucky so far on the turnover ratio. That cant last forever. Kentucky has the home revenge and home-off-road-loss after losing to Alabama only by 3. I think South Carolina is a solid team, just not the best spot for them here.(Win by 11 and 2)

Sunday, October 05, 2008

MIAMI +6.5 over San Diego--------Miami off a bye week at home. Good chance their defense is rested enough to contain the Chargers offense. Only the 2nd home game for Dolphins. Chargers got lucky to cover(and win) last week at Oakland as the Raiders defense quit late. I'd be surprised if they escape again against a team off their bye-week.(Win 17-10......Miami outgained them by 190 yards, quite a bit i'd say)

Saturday, October 04, 2008

ILLINOIS +2.5 over Michigan---------Illinois scored 42 at Missouri, a good team, with an even TO ratio and was only outgained by 50 yards at Penn State. This is also a revenge spot for them as they lost at home to Michigan last year. Michigan, coming off a miracle win, a game they had no business winning, being outgained by 110 yards, is still a pathetic team. Their QB is 48% and their offense is a joke still. Michigan's defense is ok and has kept them from being blown out so far. But until their offense improves significantly, they should not be favored against any Big Ten team besides possibly Northwestern and Indiana. (Win 45-20)

ILLINOIS +8 over Michigan teased with Ill/Mich UNDER 56------------Michigan is an "under" team with a decent defense and no offense and there is no way they can beat Illinois by more than 1 td (Lose by 9....some unlikely scores late in this game)

Auburn vs Vanderbilt UNDER 37-----------Vandy is off a bye week at home so their defense should get a boost. They also have been averaging about 14 passing attempts per game which is very low. Clearly, they prefer to run and Auburn's rushing defense will probably be about the best they have faced (Win by 10)

IOWA STATE +18 over Kansas teased with WISCONSIN +7.5 over Ohio State--------Iowa State has revenge and home-off-road-loss. This will be only the 2nd road game for Kansas. Wisconsin has revenge and home-off-road-loss as well. Ohio State now 0-4 ATS (Win by 16 and 4.5)

BAYLOR +24.5 over Oklahoma---------Baylor is home off a bye, has the revenge and home-off-road-loss(Lose 49-17.....I think Oklahoma must be pretty good to out perform in this spot)