Saturday, September 16, 2006

Saturday

Recap of yesterday: ugghhhh, Royals bullpen blows me another win, but Sisco was credited with his 5th hold so it wasnt his fault. DAMMIT I ALMOST TOOK CARMONA. Friday night at home. I like those plays. Indians offense is still, even without Hafner I think, better than the Twins. Well, whatever, ill catch up with these recaps later

Football plays:

The coming-home-rebound system only went 1-1 last week for me. So this week, I'll try the coming-home-and-maybe-im-significantly-undervalued-even-after-covering-twice system.

Pitt -2.5 over Michigan State------Pitt has 2 good covers and MSU has failed to cover against Idaho and just barely covered(by coming on strong late in the game) against Eastern Michigan. In fact the MSU game was 24-17 at halftime and the Idaho game was way too close for comfort.......so, maybe MSU sux. This site suggests a line of Pitt -9 based on recent results. However, it suggested last week that Colorado should be favored by more than they were and Colorado blew it. But maybe it'll predict better this week since there's more data.

Vanderbilt +5.5 over Arkansas------Ark has failed to cover twice and Vandy has covered twice coming within 3 points of Alabama. I saw Vandy's first game against Michigan and I'll tell you that they have a qb who can run, but not much other offense. Their only score was a trick play with two passes where Michigan was caught totally off guard. If not for that they wouldnt have scored(they might have missed a field goal or two). Vandy's defense, however, was quite adequate. Michigan was the beneficiary of two Vandy fumbles in the first half and even with that they only led 13-7 at halftime. I think Vandy can stop the run pretty well and I'll go out on a limb and say that if Arkansas cant pass well, they're not gonna win the game. Looks like Ark has a 50% completion percentage and has passed for about 80 yds per game. Not good. I'll take a home team with points thats a proven coverer. Go Commies!

Games that i almost took were Rice +35.5 at home vs Texas but even though Texas was exposed by OSU as highly overrated, I fear their fury to try to prove themselves worthy by whipping Rice badly. Rice does have two covers tho. Oregon i also was considering as they have 2 covers coming home to a short line. I guess my football beliefs are to find some excuse to take home teams who will probably be competitive against their opponent and be playing for the win.

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