Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Wednesday

BCLI plays moved up to 50-44 +8.11units yesterday
BCLI line theoretical plays moved total down to 117-123 -8.76units
BCLI starred plays moved up to 8-5 +2.67units

The Yankees won and i think i saw why the line was so low: Marcum has some stuff(but bad control) while Karstens, who actually got kinda lucky, has control but weak stuff.

Arizona +165(BCLI line AZ +101) over SD------Wells is an effective pitcher due to his control, but opposing batters hit around .300 off him. AZ is a swing away team, not taking very many walks so i think they could rip Wells. Edgar Gonzalez has only had like 3 starts so its kinda hard to tell how he'll do. rhb's hit .265 off him and lhb's .346. He pitched a good 6 inning five hitter against florida but his team was no-hit by Sanchez; his team owes him a win. Walks are not a problem for Gonzalez. Padres offense has been awakening a little bit but they're not that hot. Padres and AZ are both 6-4 in their last ten. Price to go against Wells is too good not to bet.

Milwaukee +125(BCLI line mil -107) over Stl and UNDER 9(-115)------opposing batters are hitting around .210 off Villanueva and even if he gets hit a bit, I can still win with the under because the Brewers still have shown no sign of coming out of their slump. 9 is actually high for an o/u number where the Brewers are playing no matter who is pitching, but Villanueva....he's hard to hit and doesnt walk people. Suppan pitched a 7 inning 4 hitter against the Brewers last time he faced them so Brewers have revenge motivation. However, Suppan HAS been delivering some good 7 inning starts lately.

Lines: Phi -270(BCLI line -263)
Atl -103(BCLI line -139)
Fla -128(BCLI line Mets -120)
LAD -230(BCLI line -198)
Tor -220(BCLI line -159)-----ummmmm, i wanna take toronto but this price.....i would expect Yanks would be resting some starters
Bos -130(BCLI line -150)
TX -138(BCLI line -142)
CWS -111(BCLI line -130)
LAA -150(BCLI line -130)
Oak -175(BCLI line -172)

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