Saturday
ALABAMA +3 over Auburn and Alabama (+130) straight up------I think there's some hidden value in Alabama considering they've had to play 4 good teams on the road this year(@Florida, @LSU, @Tenn, @Ark). That's gotta be tough and hurtful to Bama's stats. And, of course, they played Tenn and Ark to very, very close games. Alabama should be pissed enough to play hard after coming off 2 consecutive losses to LSU and Mississippi State. They're also pissed about Auburn doing some 'four fingered salute' thing last year when Auburn beat them. Auburn should come out weaker than expected because they've only had 3 road games this year. Looks like Auburn has only covered 4 times this year. They were exposed as overrated when they lost 10-27 to Arkansas as 13 point favorites, but they somehow came back the next weak to beat Florida. I dont what what was up with that. Then, 3 straight failures to cover culminating in last weeks 15-37 loss to Georgia as 11 point favorites. Now, Georgia fucking sucks this year so you really have to wonder about Auburn.
MISSISSIPPI STATE +14.5 over Arkansas------Msu off a bye coming home after beating alabama. Thats seems like a positive situation. Arkansas has only 3 road games under their belt this year and are coming off a win against Tennessee. Beating Tenn is impressive, but i think Tenn was in a weakened condition last week without Ainge. Ark's passing game is not dangerous; Mustain is only a low 50's percentage passer. So if MSU has had an extra week concentrating on stopping Ark's running game, all they have to do is do that and im pretty sure they cover 2 td's. MSU has learned how to score in their last 3 games with 79 total points and is doing much better than their pathetic first half of the season. MSU's defense is allowing 119 yards per game against the rush. That's not terrible, and if they turn it up a notch, as they should at home off a bye, they should contain Mcfadden.
MICHIGAN +7.5(-130) over Ohio State-------buy a point and i think this bet is a high probability winner. First of all, I think it would be very surprising if anybody got blown out in this game. Statistically, both defenses are incredibly good. Mich allowing 30 yards per game against the rush and I dont think OSU will hesitate to pass a good deal(the prop bet on Smith completing over 16.5 passes looks like a good bet). OSU looked good and very powerful against Texas, but Texas proved to be overrated throughout the season going 5-5 ATS and losing to Kansas State and almost losing to Nebraska and Texas Tech. After that, I'd have to say OSU's schedule looks pretty weak. Did OSU play Wisconsin? NO! but Michigan did. OSU padded their stats blowing out Indiana and Minnesota at home; but Michigan had to play these 2 teams on the road. Oh! OSU got to play Penn State at home while Mich had to play PSU at PSU. Michigan's beatdown AT Notre Dame means something good in favor of the Maize and Blue, but not SO good as ND's defense has proven to be very soft. What about the home field advantage? I think its diminished here as this game is huge enough for both teams even in years when its not #1 vs #2. The hugeness of the game probably puts more pressure on the home team, especially with the fact of Ohio's inferiority complex vis a vis Michigan(i still remember 1996 when Michigan went down there as 17 point dogs, noone thought they had a chance and they won it straight up. That was a great day.) Schembechler's death should add some air to Michigan's sails. It is routine for Michigan to not cover at home, that's been going on for years, but they are 4-0 ATS on the road this year. The line on this game SHOULD be Osu -3.5. OSU -7 is a stupid bet. Mich +7 is worth a bet.
Miami vs Virgina UNDER 37-----not a great number to go under but these offenses have established themselves as highly incompetent. you cant run against Miami's good defense, and Virginia's QB is not very good, in my opinion, as a passer(Virginia only passes for 160 yards per game). Kyle Wright is out as Miami's QB and considering the fact that he SUCKED, i dont feel that his backup will do anything good. Virginia's defense is pretty decent against the run, they allow less than 20 points per game and they should show some improvement coming off a bye following a 0-33 loss at FSU
WAKE FOREST pick'em over Virginia Tech------I think you can go with Wake again here at home. VT is overrated this year and Wake has been underrated, tho after killing FSU and beating Boston College, Wake is finally getting some respect(Pick'em at home vs VT......that's the extent of it). Skinner is hitting 68% as Wake's QB and Wake is rushing for 153 yards per game compared to VT's 115 yds per game rushing. VT doesnt pass that well and their main weapon is Ore, an RB. Yes, at home, Ore rushed all over Clemson and VT won convincingly because Clemson's rushing defense is weak. Wake has only allowed 92 yards per game against the run so I think they have a good chance.
ALABAMA +3 over Auburn and Alabama (+130) straight up------I think there's some hidden value in Alabama considering they've had to play 4 good teams on the road this year(@Florida, @LSU, @Tenn, @Ark). That's gotta be tough and hurtful to Bama's stats. And, of course, they played Tenn and Ark to very, very close games. Alabama should be pissed enough to play hard after coming off 2 consecutive losses to LSU and Mississippi State. They're also pissed about Auburn doing some 'four fingered salute' thing last year when Auburn beat them. Auburn should come out weaker than expected because they've only had 3 road games this year. Looks like Auburn has only covered 4 times this year. They were exposed as overrated when they lost 10-27 to Arkansas as 13 point favorites, but they somehow came back the next weak to beat Florida. I dont what what was up with that. Then, 3 straight failures to cover culminating in last weeks 15-37 loss to Georgia as 11 point favorites. Now, Georgia fucking sucks this year so you really have to wonder about Auburn.
MISSISSIPPI STATE +14.5 over Arkansas------Msu off a bye coming home after beating alabama. Thats seems like a positive situation. Arkansas has only 3 road games under their belt this year and are coming off a win against Tennessee. Beating Tenn is impressive, but i think Tenn was in a weakened condition last week without Ainge. Ark's passing game is not dangerous; Mustain is only a low 50's percentage passer. So if MSU has had an extra week concentrating on stopping Ark's running game, all they have to do is do that and im pretty sure they cover 2 td's. MSU has learned how to score in their last 3 games with 79 total points and is doing much better than their pathetic first half of the season. MSU's defense is allowing 119 yards per game against the rush. That's not terrible, and if they turn it up a notch, as they should at home off a bye, they should contain Mcfadden.
MICHIGAN +7.5(-130) over Ohio State-------buy a point and i think this bet is a high probability winner. First of all, I think it would be very surprising if anybody got blown out in this game. Statistically, both defenses are incredibly good. Mich allowing 30 yards per game against the rush and I dont think OSU will hesitate to pass a good deal(the prop bet on Smith completing over 16.5 passes looks like a good bet). OSU looked good and very powerful against Texas, but Texas proved to be overrated throughout the season going 5-5 ATS and losing to Kansas State and almost losing to Nebraska and Texas Tech. After that, I'd have to say OSU's schedule looks pretty weak. Did OSU play Wisconsin? NO! but Michigan did. OSU padded their stats blowing out Indiana and Minnesota at home; but Michigan had to play these 2 teams on the road. Oh! OSU got to play Penn State at home while Mich had to play PSU at PSU. Michigan's beatdown AT Notre Dame means something good in favor of the Maize and Blue, but not SO good as ND's defense has proven to be very soft. What about the home field advantage? I think its diminished here as this game is huge enough for both teams even in years when its not #1 vs #2. The hugeness of the game probably puts more pressure on the home team, especially with the fact of Ohio's inferiority complex vis a vis Michigan(i still remember 1996 when Michigan went down there as 17 point dogs, noone thought they had a chance and they won it straight up. That was a great day.) Schembechler's death should add some air to Michigan's sails. It is routine for Michigan to not cover at home, that's been going on for years, but they are 4-0 ATS on the road this year. The line on this game SHOULD be Osu -3.5. OSU -7 is a stupid bet. Mich +7 is worth a bet.
Miami vs Virgina UNDER 37-----not a great number to go under but these offenses have established themselves as highly incompetent. you cant run against Miami's good defense, and Virginia's QB is not very good, in my opinion, as a passer(Virginia only passes for 160 yards per game). Kyle Wright is out as Miami's QB and considering the fact that he SUCKED, i dont feel that his backup will do anything good. Virginia's defense is pretty decent against the run, they allow less than 20 points per game and they should show some improvement coming off a bye following a 0-33 loss at FSU
WAKE FOREST pick'em over Virginia Tech------I think you can go with Wake again here at home. VT is overrated this year and Wake has been underrated, tho after killing FSU and beating Boston College, Wake is finally getting some respect(Pick'em at home vs VT......that's the extent of it). Skinner is hitting 68% as Wake's QB and Wake is rushing for 153 yards per game compared to VT's 115 yds per game rushing. VT doesnt pass that well and their main weapon is Ore, an RB. Yes, at home, Ore rushed all over Clemson and VT won convincingly because Clemson's rushing defense is weak. Wake has only allowed 92 yards per game against the run so I think they have a good chance.
posted by BannedChatter at 12:17 AM
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