Sunday Nite

San Diego +3 over Denver-----I've seen a lot of people who like Denver in this one. And, yes, Denver is at home and I like to take home teams......But...
I think this could be one of those games, those RARE occurences where the home field advantage is overvalued by the line makers. Lets look at Denver at home this year: W KC 9-6, W Oak 13-3, W Balt 13-3.....at this point their defense looked good, i bet on them and then L Indianapolis 31-34. After that game, they won at Pitt in a game that they should have lost. Roethlisberger threw for over 400 yards against them and Pitt had in the vicinity of more than 200 total yards MORE than Denver had(but pitt had 6 turnovers; that's why denver won). Other than one 72 yard rush from Javon Walker, Denver only had 43 other rushing yards vs Pitt. Then last week Denver easily could have lost to Oakland.
In terms of yards allowed per game, SD and Denver's defense are only 13 yards apart and the defenses against the run are equally good. So this game should come down to the passing. And Rivers is simply much much MUCH better than Plummer. its 66% against Plummer's 55%. So even if Tomlinson is totally neutralized as a rusher, SD should out pass Denver and probably win. SD has scored 16 more points per game than Denver. Last week, SD got passed on by Carson Palmer and were way behind, then they came back and actually won the game by 8 points. 1)Plummer CANNOT pass like Palmer and 2) when you have a good passer like Rivers, you're always in the game because you can come back quickly. I dont think the home field advantage is powerful enough to overcome SD's offensive superiority. You have to be able to score a bit to cover even a -3 line and Denver cant score.