Tuesday

Ball State (+170) over Toledo-----Ball State will have had 3 more days to prepare for this one than Toledo. So far this year: Ball State underrated (6-3 ATS) and Toledo overrated (4-5 ATS). Perhaps the line has adjusted for this but the fact remains: Ball State has covered the spread against 3 big ten teams and Toledo has lost 45-3 against Pittsburgh and they've also lost to Eastern Michigan. Some people will tell you that Ball State's game against Michigan was a fluke. But the fact remains: they were 2 yards and a 2 point conversion away from tying the #2 team in the country LATE in the game. Ball State's weakest point statistically, their pass defense, may not hurt them in this game because Toledo cannot pass well(their Qb's complete around 53% of their passes). Ball State has TWO 64% passers. Toledo also beat Ball State last year 34-14 at BS so this is a revenge situation for BS. This game will be instructive as far as what happens the game after you ALMOST beat a huge team. Texas Tech lost to Texas 35-31 and the next game they came back and covered by more than 2 td's. If Ball State can come within 1 of Indiana, 10 of Purdue and 8 of Michigan, they can definitely beat a team like Toledo that is having a distinctly unimpressive season.