Saturday
Wake Forest +8.5 over Florida State-----Fsu seems to have a lot of injuries including QB Weatherford(though he'll probably play). FSU has blown out Duke, Rice and Virginia but played everyone else close. Wake has beaten everyone (with one blowout of Mississippi) and lost only to Clemson by 10. WF is a "public" play with a huge(65%) percentage of wagers on them....yet the line has moved from an opening of WF +5. Interesting, but i figure that if WF has beaten BC and NC state, 2 teams that FSU has LOST to, a +8.5 has very good odds of covering.
Vanderbilt (+110) over Kentucky-----Kentucky is off a big win over Georgia....could be a let down for them here. Kentucky prefers to pass and Vanderbilt has a good passing defense. Kentucky's defense altogether is about 120 yards per game WORSE than Vanderbilt's. Vandy should be hungrier since they just lost to Florida(coming within 6 points).
Oregon +8 over USC-------I put USC in the same category as FSU: just an average team this year but likely to be overvalued due to past history of being good. USC's main threat is their QB and Oregon has only allowed 142 passing yards per game this year. Oregon has beaten Oklahoma.
Indiana +19.5 over Michigan-------Its clear that Michigan's strategy is to run the ball, score 28 points, let their defense dominate and get to the Ohio State game undefeated. They're NOT trying to blow teams out or destroy anybody. At Notre Dame, it was different: Michigan took some risks early because they expected ND to pass well against them and score some points. And, of course, they had Manningham then. He's apparently back now; if he's needed he could play, though he didnt play last week. UM is probably looking ahead to OSU and for IU, its the Game Of The Year. If Indiana's QB has the game of his life(he threw for 321 yards last game) and Indiana's defense steps up big(and they might because this is a big game), I think Indiana could win the game. UM came within 2 yards and a 2 point conversion of being TIED by Ball State late in the game last week.
New Mexico + 6 and New Mexico (+210) over TCU-------New Mex scoring well recently and coming off a bye.
Alabama +18 over LSU-------Alabama, besides losing by 15 points to Florida, has played everyone else very close. They are coming off a loss to Mississippi State, a team they should beat, and should have sufficient motivation to do well. LSU has played Florida, Auburn and Tennessee, but other than those teams, their schedule doesnt look very challenging.
Syracuse +10 over South Florida------Syracuse coming off the bye and is 7-2 ATS this year, despite everyone thinking they suck. SF coming off big win against Pitt....possible let down situation. SF's Qb is probable but he has a minor injury. Both these teams did equally bad at Cincinatti.
Wisconsin/Iowa UNDER 43.5 teased with Oklahoma -2.5 over Texas Tech(-125)------Wisconsin's QB is "Doubtful" which means they'll probably run more. Both defenses are good, with Wisconsin's being very good. Iowa's offense is pretty weak, if they can only put up 7 vs Northwestern(and only 6 against Michigan), I'd be surprised if they did much better vs Wisconsin. Texas Tech is a statistically good team IF they can pass. Ok's defense is good vs the pass as they beat Chase Daniel when everybody thought Missouri would win. Ok has also shown they can still rush well without Peterson. Texas Tech can't rush at all.
Wake Forest +8.5 over Florida State-----Fsu seems to have a lot of injuries including QB Weatherford(though he'll probably play). FSU has blown out Duke, Rice and Virginia but played everyone else close. Wake has beaten everyone (with one blowout of Mississippi) and lost only to Clemson by 10. WF is a "public" play with a huge(65%) percentage of wagers on them....yet the line has moved from an opening of WF +5. Interesting, but i figure that if WF has beaten BC and NC state, 2 teams that FSU has LOST to, a +8.5 has very good odds of covering.
Vanderbilt (+110) over Kentucky-----Kentucky is off a big win over Georgia....could be a let down for them here. Kentucky prefers to pass and Vanderbilt has a good passing defense. Kentucky's defense altogether is about 120 yards per game WORSE than Vanderbilt's. Vandy should be hungrier since they just lost to Florida(coming within 6 points).
Oregon +8 over USC-------I put USC in the same category as FSU: just an average team this year but likely to be overvalued due to past history of being good. USC's main threat is their QB and Oregon has only allowed 142 passing yards per game this year. Oregon has beaten Oklahoma.
Indiana +19.5 over Michigan-------Its clear that Michigan's strategy is to run the ball, score 28 points, let their defense dominate and get to the Ohio State game undefeated. They're NOT trying to blow teams out or destroy anybody. At Notre Dame, it was different: Michigan took some risks early because they expected ND to pass well against them and score some points. And, of course, they had Manningham then. He's apparently back now; if he's needed he could play, though he didnt play last week. UM is probably looking ahead to OSU and for IU, its the Game Of The Year. If Indiana's QB has the game of his life(he threw for 321 yards last game) and Indiana's defense steps up big(and they might because this is a big game), I think Indiana could win the game. UM came within 2 yards and a 2 point conversion of being TIED by Ball State late in the game last week.
New Mexico + 6 and New Mexico (+210) over TCU-------New Mex scoring well recently and coming off a bye.
Alabama +18 over LSU-------Alabama, besides losing by 15 points to Florida, has played everyone else very close. They are coming off a loss to Mississippi State, a team they should beat, and should have sufficient motivation to do well. LSU has played Florida, Auburn and Tennessee, but other than those teams, their schedule doesnt look very challenging.
Syracuse +10 over South Florida------Syracuse coming off the bye and is 7-2 ATS this year, despite everyone thinking they suck. SF coming off big win against Pitt....possible let down situation. SF's Qb is probable but he has a minor injury. Both these teams did equally bad at Cincinatti.
Wisconsin/Iowa UNDER 43.5 teased with Oklahoma -2.5 over Texas Tech(-125)------Wisconsin's QB is "Doubtful" which means they'll probably run more. Both defenses are good, with Wisconsin's being very good. Iowa's offense is pretty weak, if they can only put up 7 vs Northwestern(and only 6 against Michigan), I'd be surprised if they did much better vs Wisconsin. Texas Tech is a statistically good team IF they can pass. Ok's defense is good vs the pass as they beat Chase Daniel when everybody thought Missouri would win. Ok has also shown they can still rush well without Peterson. Texas Tech can't rush at all.
posted by BannedChatter at 7:27 AM
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