Saturday, November 25, 2006

Saturday

*(Game of The Year)Notre Dame +9 over USC --------Quinn is a 65% passer and has thrown for 3000 yards. USC has proven itself to be overrated this year; they've failed to cover 5 double digit spreads in their conference, lost to Oregon State and came very close to not winning several other games. Ok, why did USC beat Cal? Why did USC blow out Oregon? Why did USC blow out Arkansas? The answer is that USC stops the run. Cal is a running team and Lynch was held to 88 yards. Arkansas is a running team, passes very poorly and McFadden was held to 40-some yards. Oregon is a poor passing team and has switched QB's a lot. Notre Dame IS A PASSING TEAM! They're not great on defense and got torched by Mich and Michigan State by passes. However, ND has actually allowed fewer passing yards than USC has. So ND lost to Michigan.....Michigan is clearly the #2 team in the country and their defense is, unquestionably, better than USC's. Why did ND lose by 26 points to Michigan? Quinn was picked off 3 times in that game constituting 60% of his interceptions for the ENTIRE SEASON(he's only been picked 5 times). So, you get the best QB in NCAAF, +9 points playing against an overrated team with no particular talent stopping the pass.

Arizona State +3 over Arizona and ASU (+145) straight up------Why did Arizona beat Cal? they got 3 interceptions. why did Arizona beat whip Oregon? they got 4 interceptions. Is Arizona's defense really that good? well, ASU's defense has allowed 310 yards per game and AZ's has allowed 316 yards per game. ASU has been inconsistent, getting blown out some games and then blowing out Washington State and only losing by 7 to USC. There is a major difference in these offenses. On average ASU gets 100 more yards per game than AZ and scores 10 more points. And ASU passes well and runs well while AZ isnt very good at either.

Louisville -10 over Pitt-------Louisville lost to Rutgers because Rutgers ran on them and defended out of their mind in the 2nd half. Pitt's best weapon is Palko and i dont see Pitt rushing like Rutgers or defending anywhere near what Rutgers did. Louisville runs and passes well and can bury teams. Pitt's D broke down against WV and Pitt got whipped by the pathetic Michigan State at home. Yeah, that's right: PITT WAS AT HOME WHEN MICHIGAN STATE BEAT THEM BY 15 POINTS. I know because I bet on Pitt. Louisville is much better than MSU. Pitt also lost to Connecticut(that's pathetic). bet on a blowout is worth it

Rutgers -16.5 over Syracuse --------Syracuse is just having a lot of problems scoring and against Rutgers' great defense, I think Syracuse could come close to getting shut out. Rutgers is coming off their only lost and should be pissed enough to go for the blowout. Syracuse has nothing going for them.

Virginia +22 teased with ND/USC OVER 50.5------Virginia only 1-4 ATS on the road but Ore is "Doubtful" for VirgTech and has constituted a huge part of VT's offense. Virginia's defense isnt as good as VT's, but it is pretty good. The o/u is 37 so it should be a low scoring game and VT's is favored by too many points. Offensively, both teams scored 17 points against Miami's great defense. Virginia threw 2 interceptions against FSU. that's why they lost 0-33. In the ND game, we KNOW ND is passing, and we know ND's defense is breakable. I think Booty will pass alot but there is a chance they will try to run to avoid a huge shootout with Quinn.