Saturday, November 04, 2006

Saturday

*Miami +2.5 over Virginia Tech and Miami (+120) straight up------Miami coming home off a loss to GT should have the motivation. VT coming off big win vs Clemson and ripe for a let down. VT has only played 2 road games this year and could prove to be more overrated than they already have shown on the road here. Miami is averaging an allowance of only 65 yds rushing and that is probably the best rushing defense of any team(FSU rushed for only 4 yds total against Miami). So can VT pass? I checked the 2 games where VT was behind and had to pass a lot. The results were that VT lost those games. VT beat clemson almost totally with Ore, their best rusher. I am pretty sure that Miami will do MUCH better if VT tries to rush very much here. No, Miami doesnt score well but if VT could only score 3 points against Boston College(and they could easily fare just as badly vs Miami's D) Miami could still win even if they dont score much.

Wisconsin -1 teased with Cal -11-------Wisconsin seems to be a fashionable play but i dont wanna lay 7 with them as they havent really beaten anybody good. Their offense is very good statistically and Penn State's offense is terrible. That should be enough to get Wisconsin a win. And I do want to play the Badger defense at home, but PSU's defense is also good so it may NOT be a blowout. Cal is coming off a bye and i really want to play them at home.

Cal UCLA OVER 51-------Cal is a scoring machine and i think they'll be strong off the bye. Cal rushing game is formidable but I've checked their recent games and their qb is often passing more than 30 times a game. Statistically, Cal's defense doesnt look so good in terms of yards allowed, so I think UCLA might put up 20 or more points. UCLA's defense DOES look ok statistically but they just lost 15-37 to Washington State. And if WSU scores that much against UCLA, Cal should score at least 40 against them.

Update:

Texas Tech -16.5 over Baylor-------looks like Baylor's QB is out for the season after getting injured last game. And he provided virtually all of the offense as Baylor doesnt seem to rush for even 50 yds per game. Texas Tech almost beat Texas last game at home and their coach said they played their best game all season against Texas, losing only 31-35. Tech certainly knows how to pass so they could put up a big number against a weak Baylor pass defense.

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