Sunday
Miami -1.5 over KC and OVER 40------KC should be tired here after 3 straight wins and covers. But remember: KC got blown out 45-7 by the pathetic Steelers and really should have lost to Arizona, only winning by 3. If KC wins this game it will be an incredible 4 straight wins and covers with this game being the 2nd consecutive road win. I dont think they're that good. Miami is climbing up out of a disappointing year and should be at a season high in confidence after beating the bears. Statistically, these offenses are equal in terms of yards gained with Miami being about 35 yards per game better on defense. Harrington continues to deliver the passing attempts and with Miami's defense being pretty good against the run, KC should try to pass more than usual. KC has also been playing some pretty high scoring games lately; they havent gone under in the last 6 games and Harrington has taken Miami over the total 3 times out of 4 since he started to play
Arizona +6.5 over Dallas and Arizona (+250) straight up-------Az coming home after a loss after a bye. This is the first time they've been at home since the monday night tragedy and they owe their fans a win. Fitzgerald is back now. Dallas should certainly be favored, but they are only 4-4 ATS; a middling team that should be vulnerable on the road against a rested, motivated team.
Oakland +9 over Denver and Oakland (+400) straight up-------These bets might seem more of a stretch but consider that Oakland's defense is ACTUALLY STATISTICALLY BETTER THAN DENVER'S in terms of yards allowed per game. Oakland has lost at Denver only 13-3 and is in a revenge situation and a "mad" situation after getting shutout on monday night. But look at the condition of Denver; they've just played 2 really tough games; they got 3 concussions last game against Pittsburgh. John Lych, Ian Gold and a bunch of others are either 'questionable' or 'probable' with injuries.
Giants -1 over Bears and OVER 37.5--------just 3 reasons why i like the Giants 1) at home 2) Barber is better than Bears rushing game 3)I like Manning over Grossman. Both defenses allow 90-some yards per game against the run. That's good and should encourage both teams to pass more. In games which are not Bears blowouts(and this game should not be a blowout for the Bears), Grossman will give you 30-some passing attempts. Linemakers look at the Bears good defense and give an o/u number in the 30's, Grossman then passes the game over.
This season the o/u's for the Bears have been over 40 only 2 times and the Bears games have gone under ONLY ONCE. If they're gonna give a 37.5 on this game with Manning, another capable passer, I'm gonna take the over again despite injuries to WR's Berrian and Toomer and Burress(who might play). I just dont see running plays working against these defenses.
Atlanta -2 teased with Detroit pick'em--------Atl should have motivation coming home after disgraceful loss to Lions. San Fran very bad in road games. Lions getting used to winning
San Francisco Detroit UNDER 46-------i've seen a free pick liking the over in this game but Alex Smith is averaging very few passing attempts. San Fran's offensive weapon seems to be Gore, a running back, and they seem to be not passing in games they should be passing more. (perhaps low confidence in Smith's passing skills). Last game against Minnesota, a team with a good rushing defense, Smith only had 21 passing attempts. And they somehow won. Detroit should try their running game a little more as SF's defense is not particularly strong vs the run.
Miami -1.5 over KC and OVER 40------KC should be tired here after 3 straight wins and covers. But remember: KC got blown out 45-7 by the pathetic Steelers and really should have lost to Arizona, only winning by 3. If KC wins this game it will be an incredible 4 straight wins and covers with this game being the 2nd consecutive road win. I dont think they're that good. Miami is climbing up out of a disappointing year and should be at a season high in confidence after beating the bears. Statistically, these offenses are equal in terms of yards gained with Miami being about 35 yards per game better on defense. Harrington continues to deliver the passing attempts and with Miami's defense being pretty good against the run, KC should try to pass more than usual. KC has also been playing some pretty high scoring games lately; they havent gone under in the last 6 games and Harrington has taken Miami over the total 3 times out of 4 since he started to play
Arizona +6.5 over Dallas and Arizona (+250) straight up-------Az coming home after a loss after a bye. This is the first time they've been at home since the monday night tragedy and they owe their fans a win. Fitzgerald is back now. Dallas should certainly be favored, but they are only 4-4 ATS; a middling team that should be vulnerable on the road against a rested, motivated team.
Oakland +9 over Denver and Oakland (+400) straight up-------These bets might seem more of a stretch but consider that Oakland's defense is ACTUALLY STATISTICALLY BETTER THAN DENVER'S in terms of yards allowed per game. Oakland has lost at Denver only 13-3 and is in a revenge situation and a "mad" situation after getting shutout on monday night. But look at the condition of Denver; they've just played 2 really tough games; they got 3 concussions last game against Pittsburgh. John Lych, Ian Gold and a bunch of others are either 'questionable' or 'probable' with injuries.
Giants -1 over Bears and OVER 37.5--------just 3 reasons why i like the Giants 1) at home 2) Barber is better than Bears rushing game 3)I like Manning over Grossman. Both defenses allow 90-some yards per game against the run. That's good and should encourage both teams to pass more. In games which are not Bears blowouts(and this game should not be a blowout for the Bears), Grossman will give you 30-some passing attempts. Linemakers look at the Bears good defense and give an o/u number in the 30's, Grossman then passes the game over.
This season the o/u's for the Bears have been over 40 only 2 times and the Bears games have gone under ONLY ONCE. If they're gonna give a 37.5 on this game with Manning, another capable passer, I'm gonna take the over again despite injuries to WR's Berrian and Toomer and Burress(who might play). I just dont see running plays working against these defenses.
Atlanta -2 teased with Detroit pick'em--------Atl should have motivation coming home after disgraceful loss to Lions. San Fran very bad in road games. Lions getting used to winning
San Francisco Detroit UNDER 46-------i've seen a free pick liking the over in this game but Alex Smith is averaging very few passing attempts. San Fran's offensive weapon seems to be Gore, a running back, and they seem to be not passing in games they should be passing more. (perhaps low confidence in Smith's passing skills). Last game against Minnesota, a team with a good rushing defense, Smith only had 21 passing attempts. And they somehow won. Detroit should try their running game a little more as SF's defense is not particularly strong vs the run.
posted by BannedChatter at 8:57 AM
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