*COLORADO STATE +7 over Houston(Lose 38-27)
COLORADO STATE +250 over Houston----------CSU quite simply should have beaten Cal, they had 6 more 1st downs than Cal, turned the ball over 3 more times than Cal and outgained Cal in offensive yards(and Cal is supposed to be good...they did beat Tennessee). And CSU is COMING off a bye! Their Qb is at 71% this year whereas Houston's good 67% QB, Kolb, is graduated, gone, outta there. Houston beat Tulane.....so what? CSU lost to Colorado AT Colorado, but they still outgained them by 56 yards. CSU was a bad team last year while Houston was a good team last year; but this year.....is not last year and this dog is live.(Lose 27-38.....Im telling you: this is the kind of shit that happens when you bet road teams. 1) Houston put in new hero-QB Keenum in the 2nd quarter after things were going bad for them. He starts to kick ass. 2) Colorado State's defense TOTALLY QUIT in the 2nd half. Just fucking totally. FUCK road teams)

ILLINOIS -2.5 over Indiana-----------I dont like to play too many road favorites but I've seen Illinois in action and they are good and i plan to bet on them a lot. This is a revenge game for Illinois as they lost to Indiana last year. Indiana beat Western Mich but they benefited from +4 on the turnover ratio and allowed over 20 points.....to a MAC team. Then they allowed over 20 points to ANOTHER mac team, Akron. Illinois should have beaten Missouri but were -3 on the turnover ratio. Illinois is good and I'll lay the points and go against the home team to have them here.(Win 27-14)

CENTRAL FLORIDA -7 over Memphis----------CF is coming off a 32-35 loss to Texas, a huge team, and the turnover margin was even: it was no fluke. They've covered all their lines this year and beaten NC State on the road. Memphis.....hasnt done anything impressive.(Win 56-20....CF was -3 on the turnover ratio which makes this much more impressive. Look to bet Central Florida again)

MICHIGAN +3 (-115) over Penn State--------PSU has played Buffalo, ND and Florida International. No, that's not a real schedule yet....who cares if you beat those teams down? I've seen all of Michigan's games; they're improving(or really SHOULD be improving) and Mallet has upside(he's not at Michigan for no good reason). Morelli is gonna be more mobile than ND's sorry QB, but he's no Dennis Dixon from Oregon or that App State Qb. PSU and Mich both had Notre Dame at home and.......PSU let them score 10 points! Michigan didnt do that. Michigan has good momentum here, they've destroyed a bad team, they've made their mistakes, I dont think they're "shook" anymore, and they're ready to beat a good team(altho you cant KNOW if PSU is actually good with their ytd schedule).(Win 14-9.....even on the turnover ratio: this win was legit)

ARKANSAS -7 over Kentucky-----------Coming home off the road-loss to Alabama, I like Ark's motivation here. Kentucky's win vs Louisville is tainted by the +2 turnover ratio they benefited from. Their Qb scares me a little, especially considering how Bama torched Ark through the air last game, but Ark had good pass D against Troy. And I think Ark will be able to be as effective on the ground, with their main offensive weapon, Mcfadden, against Kentucky, as they could be against any other team. Kent State rushed for 324 yards against Kentucky! Bottom line: motivation, correction of defensive mistakes at home, Mcfadden rolls......and they cover the 7.(Lose 42-29.....Correct: Ark rushed for 6.6 ypc; that's pretty good. Freak roughing the kicker penalty ruined this bet. Incorrect: Arkansas defense absolutely DID NOT improve. In fact, Ark's defense sucks....Dick sucks as a passer(46% here). I will avoid betting Arkansas)

NORTHWESTERN +23.5 over Ohio State------------NW's loss to Duke was a fluke; a terrible humiliation and I dont know how it happened considering NW outgained Duke 506 to 309 and got TEN MORE 1ST DOWNS than Duke did. Nw is supposed to be better this year, they should be mad, ready to redeem themselves....and this is a revenge game for them as they lost to OSU last year. OSU's win last week was also a fluke as they got +4 on the turnover ratio. I think OSU is overrated, they lost their good offense to the NFL......I'll take these points(Lose 7-58.....totally wrong about everything. Duke is for real)

Clemson vs NC State UNDER 52.5-----------Nc St was -6 on the turnover ratio in their loss to BC and -2 when lost to Central Florida. I think they come out better than expected here, their defense steps it up at home and they try to run early, since their Qb is not too good. Clemson should probably try to run also as NC State's pass defense was good in the Boston College game(their rush defense was bad, however, that's why I dont wanna take NC State to cover, but here at home I think they'll do a bit better.(Lose 42-20.....Clemson rushed too well...but they also had a surprisingly high 39 pass atts. Incorrect: NC state's D came with nothing, Clemson rushed well and passed at 64%. NC state was -3 on the TO ratio)

SMU vs TCU OVER 52-----------One of TCU's Rb's is questionable. That is one reason TCU may pass more than expected. The other is that SMU has gotten destroyed by passing in all their games, and by bad teams. North Texas' Qb threw for 600 yards vs SMU......and SMU still won. SMU's Qb can also throw for a lot of yards, and I don't see TCU being particularly good vs the pass. And if TCU gets ahead, as the 23 point spread predicts, Willis could be throwing all the time(Lose 21-7.....TCU's 'questionable' RB, Brown, played and did well....Willis passed for only 200 yards)

WAKE FOREST -3 (-120) over Maryland----------Skinner is probable for this game, he didnt play for WF vs Nebraska and WF still almost won. Skinner was like 66% last year. WF didnt cover vs Army....but that was without Skinner at QB. At BC, WF did ok, but lost...then they came with 3 vs Nebraska.....those are decent teams. Maryland has played one non-board team, failed to cover against Florida International, and failed to cover vs West Virginia. That's not too impressive(Win 31-24....Skinner plays and does well)

NORTH CAROLINA +14.5 (-130) over South Florida----------Revenge game for NC....they played Virginia very close, lost, but were victimized by a -3 on the turnover ratio. Their QB Yates looks ok at 65%. South Florida beat Auburn but benefited from an enormous +5 turnover ratio....and then Auburn was exposed as overrated when Miss State came to their home field and beat them. SF doesnt normally score a lot of points, so if NC can score just a little bit, I think they cover this(Lose 37-10.....Yates terrible, 40% and 4 pics. NC's defense terrible. Im not gonna bet NC again)

EAST CAROLINA +24.5 over West Virginia------WV only 2-4 ATS at home last year....EC played Virginia Tech pretty close on the road.....I think this is too many points(Lose 48-7.....Very weak reasoning here. Why the fuck did I make this bet?)

NAVY -8 over Duke teased with Central Florida -1 teased with Arkansas -1 (+180)---------Navy should be pissed after losing to Ball State so I like their motivation(they did outgain Ball State and were -1 on the turnover ratio). Navy looks like a pure rushing team and Duke hasnt really stopped anyone on the ground. And, of course, Duke's win against Northwestern was a total fluke(Lose by 5 and 14.....Duke was -1 on the TO ratio and they still covered. Duke is for real)

NEBRASKA -17 over Ball State teased with East Carolina +30.5----------Nebraska beat Nevada 52-10 so they can blow teams out. And they'll be motivated after the loss to USC. Can Ball State make their 3rd consecutive road-cover? I dont think so.(Lose by 16 and 10.5.......Ball State is fucking good)