Thursday
recap of yesterday: BCLI plays move total to 8-8 -1.14 units(yes, haters, yesterday was a winning day)
BCLI line plays on all games(against the official line when at least a 10 cent difference) moved to 12-19 -12.47 units overall.
Surprisingly, Esteban Loaiza, a Mexican drunk driver, decided to sober up and pitch a complete game shutout vs BCLI and the Blue Jays. This is after, and I think I wrote this, he, a few weeks ago, got rocked by Toronto. This is what I'm talking about when I say "reversal": teams, hitters, pitchers, they all make adjustments and try harder when they fail in a specific situation. My own bias against Oakland's .250 team batting average versus Toronto's superior hitting caused me to overlook this conflict of information and make a bet when I should have just not bet the game. The Red Sox DID get revenge on Escobar and that game worked out for me. The problem with Florida was that Olsen, a good pitcher whose lefthandedness I thought would allow Washington to hit him, was coming off TWO bad starts and he, presumably, bore down and redeemed himself because it meant so much to his self-conception of being a good pitcher. It was critical---for him--- in that situation. So, Rule: good pitchers GET THEIR REVENGE to redeem recent failures....usually. It worked for Myers yesterday as he dominated the Cubs.
Observations: Guzman, for the Cubs, looked good. Lester looked shaky(though he did redeem himself)
For those of you wondering about the genesis of BCLI. It started here in the chat box where one can hear much idiotic advice about trading and betting. Yesterday I heard this:
*******J(ackass): Why dont you sell those 100 Cleve at 3 Canuck?? $30 Then you can short Tiger with your winnings
The chatter, whose name I've blocked out, is recommending a bet against Cleveland at a price of roughly -3300. i.e. laying(putting at theoretical risk) 97 dollars to win 3 dollars( or $970 to win $30). So, you could either win 3 dollars or, if the trend of the game changes, watch your bet turn into some probable amount of loss considerably greater than $3. To me, this is just an example showing the PRICE ALWAYS MATTERS. You wanna use your 97 dollars to gluttonously 'buy' a 3 dollar profit??? Why? Its kind of like Donald Trump suing a writer for $5 Billion dollars, at least aesthetically. Its vulgar, crude, marginally profitable when it wins, and when it doesnt.........god, what a waste. Actually, trading like this is like playing a martingale system . Wikipedia probably needs some expansion on this entry. And I would implore the dope quoted above, if he reads this(yeah, he does because i see his anonymous hater-comments on here all the time) to do some research on the martingale, adding the numerous suicides which have resulted from this practice to the wikipedia definition.
plays:
Cincy vs SF under 9.5(-119)----both pitchers i would consider to be good and they're both coming off bad failures in their prior games. If you're a good pitcher in mlb, there is nothing you want more than to redeem yourself as quickly as possible after getting rocked. From my experience, I have to believe in this system.
Seattle +150(BCLI line +168) over Yankees------i think the line should favore Yanks just a little bit more than it does. Johnson has been doing well, but he has recently done well( 8 innings) vs Seattle.....and I like to bet on a reversal of fortune in these cases. Washburn's record sux, but if you look at his numbers, you'll see that he IS a decent pitcher----he usually keeps his team in the game.....except last start when he got rocked. Today he'll be trying to bounce back. With a decent + of +150(i'd like it to be a little more), I think seattle is playable(tho their offense has been declining) at home here. Washburn did 6 innings vs the Yanks last meeting giving up 1 run 9 hits....but he took the loss? His team owes him a win this time.
Lines: Pitt -115 (BCLI line -111) vs Houston
Mets -118(BCLI line -149) vs Stl
Cincy +102(BCLI line Cincy -134) vs SF
Balt -111(BCLI line -107) vs Minn
Tex -130(BCLI line -171) vs Tampa Bay
Cleve -170(BCLI line -156) vs KC
LaAngels -138(BCLI line -116) vs Boston----Oooh, i wanna take weaver but the price and the situation are not quite right
recap of yesterday: BCLI plays move total to 8-8 -1.14 units(yes, haters, yesterday was a winning day)
BCLI line plays on all games(against the official line when at least a 10 cent difference) moved to 12-19 -12.47 units overall.
Surprisingly, Esteban Loaiza, a Mexican drunk driver, decided to sober up and pitch a complete game shutout vs BCLI and the Blue Jays. This is after, and I think I wrote this, he, a few weeks ago, got rocked by Toronto. This is what I'm talking about when I say "reversal": teams, hitters, pitchers, they all make adjustments and try harder when they fail in a specific situation. My own bias against Oakland's .250 team batting average versus Toronto's superior hitting caused me to overlook this conflict of information and make a bet when I should have just not bet the game. The Red Sox DID get revenge on Escobar and that game worked out for me. The problem with Florida was that Olsen, a good pitcher whose lefthandedness I thought would allow Washington to hit him, was coming off TWO bad starts and he, presumably, bore down and redeemed himself because it meant so much to his self-conception of being a good pitcher. It was critical---for him--- in that situation. So, Rule: good pitchers GET THEIR REVENGE to redeem recent failures....usually. It worked for Myers yesterday as he dominated the Cubs.
Observations: Guzman, for the Cubs, looked good. Lester looked shaky(though he did redeem himself)
For those of you wondering about the genesis of BCLI. It started here in the chat box where one can hear much idiotic advice about trading and betting. Yesterday I heard this:
*******J(ackass): Why dont you sell those 100 Cleve at 3 Canuck?? $30 Then you can short Tiger with your winnings
The chatter, whose name I've blocked out, is recommending a bet against Cleveland at a price of roughly -3300. i.e. laying(putting at theoretical risk) 97 dollars to win 3 dollars( or $970 to win $30). So, you could either win 3 dollars or, if the trend of the game changes, watch your bet turn into some probable amount of loss considerably greater than $3. To me, this is just an example showing the PRICE ALWAYS MATTERS. You wanna use your 97 dollars to gluttonously 'buy' a 3 dollar profit??? Why? Its kind of like Donald Trump suing a writer for $5 Billion dollars, at least aesthetically. Its vulgar, crude, marginally profitable when it wins, and when it doesnt.........god, what a waste. Actually, trading like this is like playing a martingale system . Wikipedia probably needs some expansion on this entry. And I would implore the dope quoted above, if he reads this(yeah, he does because i see his anonymous hater-comments on here all the time) to do some research on the martingale, adding the numerous suicides which have resulted from this practice to the wikipedia definition.
plays:
Cincy vs SF under 9.5(-119)----both pitchers i would consider to be good and they're both coming off bad failures in their prior games. If you're a good pitcher in mlb, there is nothing you want more than to redeem yourself as quickly as possible after getting rocked. From my experience, I have to believe in this system.
Seattle +150(BCLI line +168) over Yankees------i think the line should favore Yanks just a little bit more than it does. Johnson has been doing well, but he has recently done well( 8 innings) vs Seattle.....and I like to bet on a reversal of fortune in these cases. Washburn's record sux, but if you look at his numbers, you'll see that he IS a decent pitcher----he usually keeps his team in the game.....except last start when he got rocked. Today he'll be trying to bounce back. With a decent + of +150(i'd like it to be a little more), I think seattle is playable(tho their offense has been declining) at home here. Washburn did 6 innings vs the Yanks last meeting giving up 1 run 9 hits....but he took the loss? His team owes him a win this time.
Lines: Pitt -115 (BCLI line -111) vs Houston
Mets -118(BCLI line -149) vs Stl
Cincy +102(BCLI line Cincy -134) vs SF
Balt -111(BCLI line -107) vs Minn
Tex -130(BCLI line -171) vs Tampa Bay
Cleve -170(BCLI line -156) vs KC
LaAngels -138(BCLI line -116) vs Boston----Oooh, i wanna take weaver but the price and the situation are not quite right
posted by BannedChatter at 4:51 PM
3 Comments:
i took kc when it was 6.5 up 10-1 after 2...so if they play that game 16 times cleve will win once...i say it was more like 100-1 or higher...did i lose...yes...but i would do it again...
This blog is a complete joke. A real handicapper doesnt play EVERY game. A real handicapper isnt critical of others... just wins. And this blog does not win.
Ironicalyy as a tradesports user with ove 150,000 trades - this joker plays none of his trades - but complains about others. Take this off your list boys and girls
way too full of himself guys. 10 yrs experience he hasnt traded in a year and his servioce doesnt exist.
not only that he doesnt compute his currernt record correctly. look at the picks yourself
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