Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Wednesday 23rd plays What is the BCLI line?

Recap of yesterday:
BCLI plays went 4-3 bringing total to 6-6 -1.43 units.
BCLI line went 3-8 vs offical line bringing total(if, when BCLI line differs from official line by 10 cents or more, you played the side the BCLI line favored) to 6-14 -12.57 units.
BCLI starred plays went 1-1 for -.55 units
BCLI's bid for a winning day was foiled when Danys Baez, an overweight Cuban pedophile, was, instead of being deported to Guantanamo Bay, brought into to pitch for the Braves and walked 2, allowed 4 earned runs while only getting one batter out. Its difficult to handicap bullpen atrocities like this. The BCLI line, after giving every home team a 20 cent handicap, looks at a team's season history of total runs and gives, roughly, 1 cent of line handicap for every run the stronger offense, compared to the weaker scoring team, has scored. Then I look at the starters and decide which one is better and handicap that team up to a maximum of 70-90 cents. For example, if you have the best pitcher, like Johan Santana or Jered Weaver, starting against the worst pitcher in baseball, like Joe Mays, I would put about a 70 cent handicap on the team with the good pitcher. However, with the offensive differential, I might give up to a maximum of 110-140 cents.
Surprises: Kazmir, Chacon, Odalis Perez for KC and Lohse did better than i expected. Mental note: play Perez next time he pitches. Downgrade Dodger offense after getting shut down again by Peavy. Milwaukee and Colorado are both WEAK offenses, dont play the over them them.


BCLI plays:

*BOSTON +133 (BCLI line BOS -114) over La Angels-----Lester has been doing worse lately than he did initially and he got whacked last time he faced the Angels(I almost always bet on the failed party, in this case Lester, making adjustments to do better this time). However, the Red sox are the better offense( tho the Angels have scored equally well over the last 3-4 weeks). Escobar's last start vs Boston was good(they'll hit him this time). opposing batters are hitting about .273 off Escobar. That's about average and the Red Sox have scored more runs than every team in baseball except the Indians and the Whitesox. Lester walks a few more people than the average pitcher; this will hurt the Angels because they really, REALLY, dont take walks.

*TORONTO -105(BCLI line -180) over Oakland------Loaiza was rocked recently by the Blue Jays. Normally, I'd find a way to bet on a reversal of this failure but no, Loaiza sux and i dont like him. I'll take toronto at -105 all day all week all year. opposing batters hit over .300 vs Loaiza; he's just not very good. Chacin, a pitcher i liked, comes back to pitch for toronto after being hurt.

WASHINGTON +118(BCLI line FLA -154) over Florida------upon scrutiny, I think the official line has it right: Olsen is coming off 2 very poor starts, though he IS a good pitcher. In this spot where Olsen may be weak, I think Washington, a team that has hit better, and well, vs left handed pitchers all year, should get revenge on Olsen for how he shut them down in their last meeting. Armas having a good year, I like him.

PHILADELPHIA -155 (BCLI line -176) over Cubs-------Guzman has been wild and the phillies take about 1 walk every 9 at bats, which is pretty close to the best(Boston taking 1 walk every 8 ab's). Myers usually does well and he will want to do well today since his last start was terrible. Cubs relative offensive weakness make this price playable

lines: Mets -138(BCLI line -128) vs Stl
Atl -170(BCLI line -194) vs Pitt
Mil -153(BCLI line -124) vs Col
Lad -114(BCLI line -113) vs SD
Minn +105(BCLI line Minn -127) vs Balt
Cws -105 (BCLI line -107) vs Det
Tex -153(BCLI line -200) vs Tampa Bay
Cleve -150(BCLI line -163) vs KC
Nyy -130 (BCLI line -145) vs Sea

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Cant even compute your own losses correctly. Come on Banned Chatter.. stop wasting your time.

5:33 PM  

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