Saturday, October 20, 2007

Wake Forest vs Navy UNDER 62--------------Both teams' scoring averages are skewered up because they both played Duke, a team that passes a lot and has no defense. Navy is a running team and should struggle offensively because Wake's rush defense is pretty good. Both teams' defenses should be stronger than usual because they've had about 9 days to prepare for this game. Navy's rush defense sucks and if Wake chose to run as much as they did against FSU, they should REALLY choose to run against Navy (Lose 44-24.....68 points scored with only 40 total passing attempts---an anomaly you're not likely to see again very often. But this game was shit anyways. 1) an 80 yard kickoff return by WF(Navy defense sucks) 2) Navy fumbles at their 10 yard line and WF runs it in for a quick TD 3)then another fumble by Navy converted to points by WF. Fuck Navy. Fuck the US armed forces. They're fucking pathetic)

CENTRAL FLORIDA -2.5 over Tulsa-----------Tulsa is 2-4 ATS; they have a bad defense that has been bad against BAD TEAMS. Their rush defense is very bad and CF is a rushing team. CF has home-off-road-loss motivation(or should have it) and their last losses were flukish with a -5 TO ratio vs East Carolina and a -3 vs South Florida (Win 44-23)

OKLAHOMA STATE -2.5 over Kansas State--------------Home revenge for Ok State. This will be only the 3rd road game this year for K-State and only the 3rd home game for Ok State(if you dont count their game against non-board team Sam Houston. K-State cant keep dominating the TO ratio forever....they were +4 against Colorado last game and +4 against Texas. Hopefully, their luck will change here. (Lose 41-39......Correct! K-State goes -2 on the TO ratio here, loses, but not by enough. Fucking half-point loss. I dont think I've ever lost by a half-point like this at 2.5. Goddamn Hell)

MARYLAND -4 over Virginia---------------Maryland off a bye, at home, and they've beaten Rutgers at Rutgers. Virginia's road record this year looks very weak: L 3-23 @Wyoming, W 22-20 @NC, W 23-21 @Middle Tenn (Lose 18-17......By FAR the sickest and most illegitimate loss. Maryland is up by 5 late in the 4th quarter. Bullshit pass interference costs them 15 yards(defensive guy made a great play to hit the ball down....completely sick call). Then a 4th down play where the Virginia runner is clearly out of bounds before reaching the ball forward to the marker. They review the terrible spot and STILL dont get it right. 2 terrible calls going against the home team. Then on the TD, THE GUY FUCKING FUMBLES IT RIGHT ON THE LINE and they call it a TD. A completely and utterly illegitimate loss. I protest it strenously and demand justice)

ILLINOIS +1 over Michigan---------------Michigan is ok, but not real strong. Against EMU(a game that was very close around halftime) Mich was +2 on the TO ratio and didnt come close to covering. Against Northwestern, Michigan seemed to be in danger of losing, didnt cover and was +5 on the TO ratio. Illinois has a powerful team this year, has home-off-road-loss motivation(I dont know how they lost to a weak-ass team like Iowa) and they havent beaten Michigan since, like, 1999. Illinois' motivation HAS to be huge here and I'd play this whether Mike Hart plays or not(Illini rush defense doing good) (Lose 27-17....utterly sick choke by Illinois in the 4th quarter. Guy totally drops an easy punt at Illinois' 15 yard line to turn in over, essentially GIVING the game to Michigan. I dont deserve this shit)

UCLA +2 over California--------------UCLA home off a bye; also home revenge for them. UCLA's rush defense is good and maybe the best Cal has seen. Their loss to Notre Dame was a -7 on the TO ratio(outrageous) and ND ONLY GOT 140 OFFENSIVE YARDS against UCLA's 277. UCLA's defense is definitely good enough to win this especially after bye-rest. Cal has been extremely + on the TO ratio....+4 vs Oregon, +3 vs Colorado State, +2 vs Arizona. That luck cant continue forever(oh, it stopped last game when they were -2 to Oregon State and lost).(Win 30-21)

TROY -20.5 (-130) over North Texas---------------Troy off a bye at home and they've beaten Ok State. North Texas lost by 59 to Arkansas and 69 to Oklahoma while Troy has scored at least 26 points against Ok state, Florida and Arkansas (Win 45-7)

Wake Forest vs Navy UNDER 68 teased with COLORADO +10 over Kansas teased with MARYLAND +2-------------------Revenge for Col and home-off-road-loss motivation for them. This is only the 2nd road game for Kansas, a team whose schedule has been very weak so far. (Win by 5, 1 and push on the total for a -110 win)

FLORIDA STATE +.5 over Miami teased with LSU -4 over Auburn-------------Home-off-road-loss motivation for FSU and they've had 2 more days to rest and prepare. 3rd road game for Miami(in their first two they got beat by 38 by OK and lost to the pathetic North Carolina). FSU HAS BEATEN ALABAMA AT HOME BY 7 WITH AN EVEN TURNOVER RATIO. Home revenge and homeoffroadloss motivation for LSU. Auburn's offense is suspect. They beat Arkansas 9-7......No, I dont consider Arkansas a very good team. LSU'll be driven.(Lose by 7.5....Miami lost on total yards, lost on 1st downs......Florida State gives it away late)

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