Tuesday, August 21, 2007

ANGELS(Escobar) -125 (BCLI line -140) over Nyy(Mussina) (Win 18-9)
Angels -1.5(+160) over Nyy-------Escobar's numbers are great, but he has only faced 3 decent offenses(Det, Nyy, Cle). Oh, But those are like the only decent offenses in baseball, except Boston and Atlanta maybe. Anyway, Escobar can certainly shut a weak team down and he only allowed 1 run when he faced the Yankees. Mussina is WAY more hittable than Escobar and I like LAA against him because he throws a lot of strikes, doesnt walk people, and the Angels don't take many walks. So Mussina COULD get rocked and Escobar COULD shut down the Yanks. And price is pretty good (Win 18-9......And that's the essence of successful sports betting: TWO WAYS TO WIN(Mussina gets rocked or Escobar shuts em down). Get just one(Mussina getting rocked hard) and that's enough)

ROYALS(Nunez) +145 (BCLI line +115) over Cws(Vazquez) (Lose 5-2)
Royals vs Cws UNDER 9 (-120)-----------Weak offenses........Nunez doesnt pitch many innings per start(so far) but he has been very hard to hit. Royals offense has gone 3, 1, 9, 7 runs per game.......they can definitely win this with Nunez. Vazquez is usually good but he has faced KC twice and both times he gave up 4 runs. Under 9 already getting hit by wise guy action it looks like. (Win 5-2.....I saw this and my view of Nunez is that when he faces a team that knows how to take walks, like Boston, he will get murdered. His fastball moves, but he doesnt really know where its going. Take pitches against him, and you'll beat him)

Cleve(Carmona) vs Det(Jurrjens) UNDER 9.5 (+100)---------Don't like Tigers offense lately. They should have gotten a lot more than 1 against Pettitte.......only got 2 (on 10 hits) vs Clemens and then only 3 runs vs Wang. Brandon Inge is KILLING this team. Third base is supposed to be an offensive position where you can put some rock-handed power hitter, or Wade Boggs. Inge is hitting .244 at 3rd base and he plays every day! Carmona has done well vs the Tigers twice this year and altho Cleve may be the play here, I dont trust the Indians offense. Jurrjens only gave up 5 hits in 7inn vs them last start. (Win 2-1.....see that? Brandon Inge finally got benched for this game. I'm glad Leyland reads his BCLI)

Mil(Bush) vs Az(Hernandez) OVER 10 (-120)---------Az bats right and rhb's hit .335 off Bush. all batters hit .300 off Livan. Home plate ump should be Larry Vanover who has called 17 overs vs only 9 unders. Brewers offense may be waking up as they've gone 9, 6, 8 runs per game over their last 3. (Win 7-4)

SEATTLE(Washburn) +105 (BCLI line Sea -125) over Minn(Baker)-------Lhb's hit .300 off Baker and I'd like to see the Mariners stack their lineup with Vidro, Ichiro, Ibanez and Broussard so they can have 4 lhb's. Washburn faced Minn last start and allowed only 1 ER in 7inn but somehow took the loss. Baker has beaten me, no doubt. But the Twins have been so low scoring(their slugging is down to .392 while Seattle's is up to .425) that i just have to play this at this price. (Win 7-2)

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