Thursday, July 12, 2007

BOSTON(Wakefield) -114 (BCLI line -155) over Tor(Halladay)------I dont agree with this line. Batters are hitting .280 off Halladay this year and only .250 off Wakefield. Halladay's ERA is NOT better than Wakefield's. Halladay leads Wakefield only in wins, winning percentage and giving up fewer walks. Offensively, I like the Redsox A LOT better than the Bluejays (Win 7-4)

BALT(Guthrie) -120 (BCLI line -165) over Cws(Garland)-------Garland is a good MLB pitcher, but this year Guthrie has been GREAT MLB pitcher. Orioles have hit over 30 points higher than the Whitesox this year. Their offense is clearly and significantly better. But this line is valuing these offenses and pitchers as if they are dead equal(assuming a 20 cent advantage for Balt being at home). They are not. (Lose 9-7.....First time Guthrie gets rocked as a starter this year....and its by the White Sox???? I dont understand that shit)

TAMPA(Shields) +132 (BCLI line TB -120) over Nyy(Pettitte)-------- +132? Jesus Christ, gimme a break. Pettitte is coming off 2 straight brutal rockings and despite Tampa's weak bullpen, I simply have to take this bet at this price. Shields' K to BB ratio is 116 to 19. That's better than Santana and Verlander. In fact, Shields should have pitched in the All Star game. I dont think you can find a better K/BB ratio than his. And batters are hitting like .230 off him. Tampa hits .279 vs lhp's. (Lose 7-3)

DETROIT(Miller) +121 (BCLI line -105) over Sea(Hernandez) (Lose 3-2)
Det vs Sea OVER 8.5----------------Miller was just too impressive vs Boston and altho Mariners hit lhp's well(.293) I think i have to take this one. Hernandez is hittable this year. The OVER is more of a hedge since the mariners may hit Miller. But I think the Tigers will do well vs Felix(Lose 3-2......Tigers out hit them by 5 fucking hits 11 to 6 and, of course, the winning run was unearned. I cannot believe this shit)

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home