Portland Atlanta OVER 181.5 (191) REST3 (Win by 20.5....OT saved it)
Washington Golden State UNDER 220 (210.5) REST5 (Lose by 43)
Washington Golden State UNDER 220 (210.5) REST5 (Lose by 43)
posted by BannedChatter at 3:58 PM
Friday, March 23, 2007
Previous Posts
- Minnesota Sacramento OVER 198 (198.5) REST3 (Lose ...
- Cleveland Charlotte UNDER 195 (193) REST6 (Lost by...
- Chicago Memphis UNDER 203 (200) REST6 (Lose by 4)G...
- Minnesota Golden State UNDER 207.5 (203.5) REST7 (...
- Atlanta Boston OVER 189 (194) REST2 (Win by 8)Detr...
- Golden State Portland UNDER 207.5 (202) REST7 (Win...
- *Knicks Washington UNDER 207.5 (206) REST7 (Win by...
- Clippers Golden State UNDER 200 (201.4) REST6 (Win...
- Charlotte Phoenix UNDER 218(204) REST5 (Lose by 3....
- New Orleans Denver UNDER 208 (199) REST6 (Win by 1...
3 Comments:
I like your system - it makes sense. Just curious as to why you didn't include NY/Clev over and Det/SA over.
Good question. The "REST" system is like a guideline. I want to be going OVER on low rest and UNDER on high rest. After that, its not systematic at all. I take a look at how the teams have been scoring recently, how a particular team does on minimal or maximal rest, and ive been tracking a teams tendency to go under or over at home on the prejudice that home teams tend to have more "control" of the game. I'm not sure how much of a difference it makes yet. For example, on this day's games Cleveland, Atlanta, Toronto, Golden State, Orlando and the Clippers were all playing at home. Based on "rest", Im looking to go UNDER with Orlando, Golden State and the Clippers and OVER with Atlanta, Toronto and Cleveland. I have an 'ok' scribbled on my record sheet next to LAC, ORL and TOR which means that LAC and ORL go UNDER when playing at home MORE OFTEN than they do when playing on the road. And TOR goes OVER more often when playing at home than they do on the road. Now, if I'd have bet those games the proper way based on "rest", I'd have won all 3 of them(and i did come very close to betting the Clippers UNDER). However, with each one of them I would have had to "chase" the number a bit as the ORL-NJ game had a line of 186 where the team's average was 192 and i wanted to go UNDER. The Clippers line was 191.5 (195).
On the games I did bet, ATL and GS, I have a "notok" next to them since ATL has a tendency to go UNDER at home and GS has a tendency to go OVER at home and based on "rest", I was looking to bet each of those games in the opposite direction. And the reason i decided to bet them that way was because the line was about 10 points(and that's a lot) off of the scoring average. So they looked like good deals.....but after the games were played you can see that the linemakers were correct(and perhaps, at this late stage in the season, the linemakers are able to make better lines since they have more data) to set the number so far off the average since the ATL game, at the end of 4 quarters, went under the "low" number 181.5 and the GS game went WAY over the "high" number.
So, yeah, after looking at the "rest", its subjective. I dont like to "chase" numbers but as you can see from this day, it can pay off to "chase". With the Knicks-Cleveland game, there's been some buzz about injuries with the Knicks and also Cleveland's tendency to go Under at home. But yeah, the number on that one was like 9 points below the average. With Detroit/SA, SA has a strong tendency to go UNDER at home AND I had swore that I'd never bet Detroit OVER again after they fucked me by scoring so low. But, of course, the number was extemely low at 175 so....
Anyway, I think the "rest" system is powerful but I also think you have to discriminate on top of it to find the very best 1,2 or 3 plays to come out with good long term results. Theoretically, when you have a lot of games to look at in a single day, your odds of winning should be better if you look at all of them. Now, today, there's only 4 games and they all indicate OVER based on "rest". But im not betting any of them because 1)there's only 4 choices and 2)Miami, Clippers and Charlotte all tend to go UNDER at home. I'll tally up my stats sometime on "tendency to go OVER or UNDER at home", post it, and see if its a good guideline.
A much bigger explanation than I expected but it makes good sense. Thanks for taking the time to write it all out.
I took the NJ/Char and Phi/Mia overs tonight, but once you start playing too many games, you'll lose in the long run.
Just know that there is someone out there checking in on your plays every day. Good luck to you.
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