There was a question recently from an avid BCLI subscriber about how BCLI chooses bets after 1) considering how rested the teams are and 2) evaluating the actual o/u number relative to the average scores put up by the two teams throughout the season.
I answered the question in the comments on a previous entry by saying that I look at how teams have been scoring recently and the tendency of the home team to go UNDER or OVER. But basically, I'm not doing anything systematic....just trying to figure out which games look "the best".
I have been tracking data on the home team's tendency to go over/under and its relevance to the BCLI "rest" system. I had not tallied up the data until just a few hours ago.
What I discovered was surprising and counter-intuitive to my assumptions. I tallied up all REST2's, 3's, 5's, 6's and higher. In other words, all games from the last 63 days which were not REST4(REST4 is the most common "rest" situation and therefore the one you would expect to give no edge). First of all, if you simply went UNDER on REST5's or higher and OVER on REST2's and REST3's over the last 63 days, you'd have gone 109-88(55%).....a winning system in itself. But lets say you look, as i have, at the home team's tendency to go OVER or UNDER at home relative to its o/u record on the road.
For example, let's look at MEMPHIS at LAKERS going today. Its REST3, so you're looking to bet OVER. You look at the combined scoring average of both teams and you see its 207. You look at the actual o/u number and its 219, far above the average which makes you want to not bet on this game. Maybe, you think, 219 is a good and justified number since you know that Memphis and the Lakers are "OVER" teams, teams which score high and go over more than they go under. The home team, the Lakers, has gone OVER 22 times at home and UNDER 12 times at home while they are even at 18-18 o/u on the road. A strong tendency to go OVER at home. And that is the question I've been studying: Are the Lakers a better bet to go OVER playing at home because they go OVER playing at home a lot?
The answer is NO. Over the last 63 days, a team in the Lakers situation would be expected to go OVER 44 times against 45 UNDERS (44-45). However, if a team had a tendency to go UNDER at home, and they were playing at home on REST2 or REST3, or conversely, if a team had a tendency to go OVER at home and was playing at home on REST5, 6, 7 or higher, betting in the direction which the REST indicated(AGAINST the team's o/u tendency at home) would have netted you 65 wins and 43 losses (65-43) 60%.
That is quite the Holy Grail in sports betting: a "dumb", mechanical 60% winning system. To reiterate, look at the direction( over/under ) that the REST indicates, if the home team has a tendency, relative to its road o/u record, to go in the OPPOSITE direction of the REST, betting in the direction indicated by the REST is a BETTER bet and is, or has been, a 60% winning system
I answered the question in the comments on a previous entry by saying that I look at how teams have been scoring recently and the tendency of the home team to go UNDER or OVER. But basically, I'm not doing anything systematic....just trying to figure out which games look "the best".
I have been tracking data on the home team's tendency to go over/under and its relevance to the BCLI "rest" system. I had not tallied up the data until just a few hours ago.
What I discovered was surprising and counter-intuitive to my assumptions. I tallied up all REST2's, 3's, 5's, 6's and higher. In other words, all games from the last 63 days which were not REST4(REST4 is the most common "rest" situation and therefore the one you would expect to give no edge). First of all, if you simply went UNDER on REST5's or higher and OVER on REST2's and REST3's over the last 63 days, you'd have gone 109-88(55%).....a winning system in itself. But lets say you look, as i have, at the home team's tendency to go OVER or UNDER at home relative to its o/u record on the road.
For example, let's look at MEMPHIS at LAKERS going today. Its REST3, so you're looking to bet OVER. You look at the combined scoring average of both teams and you see its 207. You look at the actual o/u number and its 219, far above the average which makes you want to not bet on this game. Maybe, you think, 219 is a good and justified number since you know that Memphis and the Lakers are "OVER" teams, teams which score high and go over more than they go under. The home team, the Lakers, has gone OVER 22 times at home and UNDER 12 times at home while they are even at 18-18 o/u on the road. A strong tendency to go OVER at home. And that is the question I've been studying: Are the Lakers a better bet to go OVER playing at home because they go OVER playing at home a lot?
The answer is NO. Over the last 63 days, a team in the Lakers situation would be expected to go OVER 44 times against 45 UNDERS (44-45). However, if a team had a tendency to go UNDER at home, and they were playing at home on REST2 or REST3, or conversely, if a team had a tendency to go OVER at home and was playing at home on REST5, 6, 7 or higher, betting in the direction which the REST indicated(AGAINST the team's o/u tendency at home) would have netted you 65 wins and 43 losses (65-43) 60%.
That is quite the Holy Grail in sports betting: a "dumb", mechanical 60% winning system. To reiterate, look at the direction( over/under ) that the REST indicates, if the home team has a tendency, relative to its road o/u record, to go in the OPPOSITE direction of the REST, betting in the direction indicated by the REST is a BETTER bet and is, or has been, a 60% winning system
posted by BannedChatter at 3:35 PM
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