Saturday, January 06, 2007

Saturday

Chiefs Colts UNDER 56.5 teased with Western Michigan Cincinatti UNDER 48.5--------Chiefs are a 40.5 points per game team and Colts are a 49 points per game. Statistically, the total should be 45 yet it is 50.5. And the Chiefs just dont pass. Even against average rush defenses they dont pass. With Indy's defense being weak against the run(everyone knows this), it is a lock that KC will attempt a lot of rushes. Indy knows that if they stop the run, they win. And i dont think KC's offense is very good anyway. Green is a weak passer and Colts pass defense is good. If KC gets behind and has to pass, they should fail miserably. I believe that Cincinatti's defense is much better than it may appear. they've had to play Ohio State, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Rutgers......jeez, they've played a MUCH tougher schedule than Western Michigan. WMU plays in the MAC and they didnt even dominate in the MAC. Cincy's offense is not that good and they often pass fewer than 20 times per game(their 1st QB is questionable on the injury list). Even when Cincy was getting blown out by Ohio State and had no chance to win, they only passed 25 times in the game. Cincy clearly prefers to rush and WMU's rush defense only allows 71 yards per game(that's statistically good but with their weak schedule.....who knows). Oh, i forgot, Cincy also played Louisville and held them to ONLY 23 POINTS! Cincy COULD be stopped on offense and certainly will destroy Western on defense. (Lose by 2.5-------Sick....I feel ill about this. Sometimes you have to keep relearning the same lesson: when a team has a good rush defense, their opponent often gets wise and passes.....Cincinatti passes 35 times---way more than their norm----and the total goes over. Terrible play. If I said that Cincy prefers to run and not pass, and WMU is good against the rush, then Cincy is handicapped in this game. Thus, it would make sense to play WMU + points. And, yes, they covered. But i couldnt do that looking at the differences in scheduling strength.)

Portland Sacramento UNDER 194 (196) REST5 (Lose by 21...to add insult to injury, this game would have gone under if not for OT.....sick)
Utah Denver OVER 206.5 (205) REST2 (Lose by 26.5.....Denver is terrible now...what a sick joke this day was)

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