Tuesday, January 01, 2008

ILLINOIS +14.5 (-120)(Game of The Year) over Usc-----------Did somebody forget that Illinois beat Ohio State? First of all, Illinois has not gotten blown out by anybody(and they've played Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State AND Missouri). Usc's rushing defense is statistically good---and Illinois is a rushing team-----but look at what happened when Usc played Oregon: Oregon rushed for 186 yards and beat them. Ohio State has a good rushing defense but look what Illinois did: 250 rushing yards against Ohio State. Illinois is good and has to be VERY pumped up to be in the Rose Bowl(while Usc plays in this bowl almost every year). So why didnt Illinois beat Michigan if they are so good? They got penalized for 107 total yards. That shouldnt happen again. Is USC that good? Well, they beat Washington(a terrible team) by only 3 points; they lost to Oregon and Stanford(a JOKE of a team). They beat ASU by 20(a good win) but ASU went and lost by 20 to Texas in their bowl. They beat Arizona by 7(not too impressive). Let's look at USC's non-conference schedule: Notre Dame(a joke), Nebraska(a joke) and Idaho(a joke). BCLI lost big last year betting against USC late in the season but I am not backing down: this is a great bet and is the game of the year. (Lose 49-17.....Ridiculous turnovers as Illinois is about to score; Darkie-QB-in-a-big-game dooms me again)

TENNESSEE -1.5 over Wisconsin-----------Tenn has been erratic but they have beaten Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina and Kentucky......good teams and they also played LSU pretty close. What good teams has Wisconsin beaten: Michigan and Michigan State. That's not impressive, nor is Wisconsin's road record (0-5 ATS), nor is their season record (4-7 ATS) (Win 21-17)

GEORGIA -2 over Hawaii teased with MISSOURI +3 over Arkansas-----------Georgia has played plenty of good teams(tho not LSU) and they've only lost twice. Hawaii has played all bad teams and just barely beat many of them(San Jose State took them to OT). MAJOR strength of schedule difference. Missouri has a tremendous QB advantage and, with a statistically strong rush defense, they have a good chance to shut down McFadden, who constitutes about 75% of the quality of Arkansas' team. Arkansas has lost to Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky and Tennessee and beaten LSU in their last game. The LSU win was so spectacular, so improbable and so dependent on high-risk trickeration plays that I see it as an anomaly. There could be a let-down for Arkansas here after that lucky-ass, 'game of the century' type game. Missouri, on the other hand, is coming off a loss in their big game with Oklahoma and should have the motivation edge knowing they need to redeem themselves(Win by 29 and 34)

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